HEAVY TRAFFIC BLIGHTS DUBAI WORLD CUP MEETING AGAIN

After the extraordinary number of traffic incidents at last year's Dubai World Cup meeting I suggested something had to be done to prevent a repeat. I wrote at the time that when you offer such enormous prize money it has to be accompanied by the threat of severe sanctions to jockeys who attempt to barge their way into the winner's enclosure.

One solution might have been to invoke far higher penalties for riding infractions than normal. Another could have been to adopt the strict approach to stewarding used in Hong Kong and to invite their stewards to police the big meeting. At the very least the field sizes for the big races could have been reduced to limit the potential for horses bumping into each other.

Sadly none of these things were done. So we were once more treated to a meeting where more than half the runners either caused or met interference according to the stewards report.

In the Dubai World Cup you could argue that the main culprit was the slow early pace which led to heavy crowding and a bunched sprint finish.

It certainly seemed to me that many of the big name international jockeys who flew in for the one day adopted an ultra-cautious approach to riding on the Tapeta surface and wanted to go really slow. Perhaps there should be a certain number of qualifying rides on Tapeta before jockeys are allowed to take part at the meeting. Or maybe the surface could be made deeper which would create more space between the runners like the deep Fibresand surface at Southwell does.

But I don't really think it was the surface or the pace that was the main problem. The two big races on turf both produced a litany of traffic incidents despite a reasonably good early gallop.

The big problem as I see it is that no horse has ever been disqualified from a pattern race at the Dubai Carnival. All the jockeys almost certainly knew this. They also knew that the meeting is staged early in the year. So even if they were given a huge period of suspension by the stewards for foul riding they knew they wouldn't miss much income because there are no other really valuable races to ride in for weeks after the meeting in most countries.

The Dubai World Cup fixture offers jockeys the chance to win more money in a single race than they normally make in an entire year. So there's a huge incentive for jockeys to adopt dirty tactics and very little to dissuade them from doing so. Surely something has to be done to alter this situation before next year's meeting.

PLENTY TO LEARN FROM DUBAI WORLD CUP

The race may have been a slow run mess, but I still think there's a good deal to be learned from the latest running of the Dubai World Cup.

The winner VICTOIRE PISA (36) was given a brilliant ride by former Italian champion jockey Mirco Demuro. When Shinji Fujita slowed the pace down at halfway on front running Transcend he didn't allow his mount to slow down like the other riders did. He switched him to the wide outside and allowed him to make up all the ground and more he'd lost by banging his head on the starting stalls.

Victoire Pisa moved up really smoothly from last of the fourteen runners to a half length second in a race-winning move that racing fans will surely have established Mirco Demuro's reputation as one of the best riders on the planet.

As a result of the move Victoire Pisa, a big-bodied powerful horse that's built like a three mile chaser, was right up there as soon as the wild sprint for home began rounding the home turn. He led after the two furlong pole and never looked like being caught from there despite only winning by half a length.

The first four in this race at halfway were the first four in the race at the finish. The other ten runners were so tightly bunched in behind them that they simply got in each other's way and never had a hope of getting to them.

If Victoire Pisa had been asked to come from behind I have no doubt he’d have been boxed in as badly as the other later runners were.

That said, I should note that Victoire Pisa was much the biggest horse in the contest and this gave him the same kind of edge in a very rough race that the big filly Dar Re Mi enjoyed in last year's Sheema Classic. He's so big the riders of the other runners didn't dare to try bumping him out of the way with their lighter-framed mounts because they knew they'd come off worst.

I'm not sure if last year's Dubai World Cup winner Gloria De Campeo was the biggest horse in the race as Victoire Pisa was this year. It's also hard to tell whether Rewilding was the biggest horse in the Sheema Classic. But they were certainly among the biggest and this is a factor that will surely be worth bearing in mind next year in the two longest and most prestigious races on the card..

There's no question that Victoire Pisa is a top class horse. He beat the brilliant Buena Vista in the Arima Kinnen last year and was scoring for the third time in a row here. He's a threat to win any middle distance race he contests this year.

It seems unlikely we'll be seeing Victoire Pisa in Europe this year but his success highlights the prospects of BEHKABAD and PLANTEUR who beat him into fourth place in what I rated the fastest race of last season, the Prix Niel.

Okay Victoire Pisa was not fully fit for the Prix Niel and wasn't given a hard time once it was clear he couldn't get to the two French colts. But I flat out don't believe he'd be able to reverse his eight and a quarter length loss to them however fit or hard ridden he was.

Thanks to the economic downturn and consequent drop in stallion values Behkabad and Planteur have stayed in training this year.

It looks like the connections of these remarkable colts are bearing in mind how they were thrown off form by the after effects of the sustained duel they had in the Prix Niel. Judged by the entry made for Planteur in the Prix d'Harcourt and the lack of entries for Behkabad it looks like the plan is to keep them apart. Planteur will be shooting for the top ten furlong races, starting with next month's Prix Ganay. Behkabad's campaign appears likely to be focused on the big twelve furlong races later in the season.

TRANSCEND (36) finished runner up in the Dubai World Cup. Quickly ridden after the start to take up his usual front running role, his rider slowed the pace up at halfway. Nobody but Mirco Demuro on Victoire Pisa took advantage of this to improve their position, so Transcend was still having an easy time of things when he began the sprint for home rounding the home turn. The slow pace he'd set left him with plenty of reserves to try and repel Victoire Pisa but he wasn't quite able to do so.

The way the race was run certainly conferred a huge edge to Transcend. But his Japanese form on dirt is really smart, so this big run cold well embolden his connections to ship him abroad once more for the Breeders' Cup Classic at the end of the season. I'd be rather interested in his chances there.

Third placed MONTEROSSO (35) showed that he'd recovered from his overlong campaign of 2010 by winning his comeback race at Meydan and running a big race here. It's hard to judge exactly how good he is on the basis of this performance as he was massively advantaged by being in third place most of the way around the track in a race where those behind him got in each other's way. Most likely he's just a Group 2 horse, but we need to see another run from him to verify this.

Fourth placed CAPE BLANCO (35) is not blessed with much acceleration. So it's understandable that he struggled a bit when the sprint finish began though still keeping on strongly.

Last year Cape Blanco put up one of the best performances by a three year old in recent years when blitzing his rivals nearly six lengths in the Irish Champion Stakes (I rated it only a length per mile behind the performances of Behkabad and Planteur in the Prix Niel).

The logical next race for Cape Blanco is the Prix Ganay. I would not be at all disappointed if he only ran third in that race because he looks set to face the brilliant Planteur and Cirrus Des Aigles who is a near unstoppable force around Longchamp.

The logical main target for Cape Blanco this season, besides another Irish Champion Stakes, has to be the Eclipse Stakes. The steep uphill finish will offset his lack of acceleration in that race. He's currently 8-1 ante-post favourite for the Eclipse which is tempting. But I'd wait till he's lost the Prix Ganay and some of the three year olds have strutted their stuff before betting him. I can see him getting as big as 12-1 just after the Ganay and the Guineas.

GIO PONTI (35) pulled hard when the leader slowed the pace down at halfway. At that point his jockey made the disastrous decision to wrestle him back through the field to find cover. The error became apparent very soon after when Victoire Pisa ranged alongside the leader and forced him to pick up again to retain the lead. The combined effect of this and that of Gio Ponti's jockey caused him to end up further back than he wanted to be.

From there Gio Ponti was never going to recover. He had to come wide for his run and made a bold bid for quite a while but could not sustain his effort in the last 100 yards and flattened out.

The way that Gio Ponti couldn't sustain his effort once more highlights his lack of stamina. He's been top class over ten furlongs in America but looked even better when cut back to a mile.

GITANO HERNANDO (35) was predictably not suited by the sprint finish but kept on strongly to confirm he's competitive with the best on synthetic surfaces.

It seems to me that Gitano Hernando is going to struggle against the opposition he's likely to face in the top ten furlong races on grass this year. If he were mine I'd be keen to test whether he's effective on dirt at the earliest opportunity. Dirt suits horses that lack push-button acceleration just like Gitano Hernando. The switch to it could well enable him to bridge the gap to the very best horses and make him a player for the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Seventh placed MUSIR (34) was one of the unluckiest horses in the race. He got involved in the knock on effects of the incident involving Prince Bishop and Fly Down early. This resulted in him and Twice Over bumping each other several times.

Rounding the home turn Musir was eleventh with not one but two groups of horses racing line abreast in front of him. Finding a run was an impossibility. Eventually he got through very late and picked up strongly.

I do not know quite how good Musir is. But he's shown some smart form. If he's campaigned in Europe I would not be at all surprised to see him develop into one of the top performers over 8-10 furlongs.

The brilliant Japanese filly BUENA VISTA (33) had no chance due to the way the race was run. She was far back in second last place with just a furlong and a half to run before weaving through the field like a rugby fly half to pass five horses from there.

TWICE OVER (33) was forced to come from very wide and far back thanks to the bumping duel with Musir early on. It was an impossible task trying to make up so much ground into a sprint finish. This run can be ignored.

PRINCE BISHOP was turned sideways when Gio Ponti by the dramatic stumble of Fly Down when Gio Ponti shifted across and forced him to cut off that one in the early stages. He made a pretty big move to close up in the backstretch but then started to hang towards the rail in the closing stages - I'm betting due to the effects of that early incident.

Prince Bishop is the only horse ever to have beaten Cirrus Des Aigles around Longchamp, so the Arc just has to be his long term target. He's fast enough to have a real shot in that race on my speed ratings and looks set to develop into Saeed Bin Suroor's top mile and a half horse this season. I see he's entered in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, but the longer Coronation Cup would surely be a better target given the ability he showed over twelve furlongs at Longchamp. The King George would also be a good choice for the same reason. I just wish the bookies would price him up for that race because I'd be sorely tempted to take big odds about him for it.

Prince Bishop's stablemate POET'S VOICE (19) failed to get home over ten furlongs for the second time. But even if he had stayed the fact that he was the smallest horse in the field was always going to count against him in such a rough race.

Indeed it looks like Poet's Voice is best in small fields. So far he's won all four times he's run seven furlongs or more in fields of eight or less and lost all eight times he's run in bigger fields.

It could well be that on a straight course Poet's Voice can be found enough room to deliver his extraordinary turn of foot in a field bigger than eight. So his logical early season target is surely going to be the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot. After that the Jacques Le Marois and Prix du Moulin in France look the logical choices along with the Sussex Stakes and a shot at the double in the QEII. Obviously he can't go for all those races s my inclination would be to rest him after Royal Ascot, skip the Sussex and bring him back for an Autumn campaign.

DANGEROUS MIDGE MUST GO FOR THE KING GEORGE

REWILDING (44) is clearly one of the best middle distance horses on the planet when fresh and proved it by taking the Dubai Sheema classic in fast time. If he hadn't idled in front when losing on his racecourse debut and bumped into the brilliant Planteur another time he would now have won all six times on his first two starts of the season or with a five week plus break thereafter - the norm for horses that are best fresh.

No doubt Rewilding is going to have his runs well spaced out by his shrewd trainer Mahmood Al Zarooni and will be a big player in all the top mile and a half races. However he looks unlikely to be much of a betting proposition after this big win. He's surely going to start at cramped odds every time.

In addition, with Planteur and that one's old rival Behkabad still in training, there's a very decent chance that Rewilding will be facing slightly superior rivals in several of his big target races despite his obvious brilliance.

Runner up REDWOOD (42) equaled his biggest ever speed rating by delivering his normal late run. He's now reached placed in three of the world's most valuable races in successive starts. Rather like Twice Over in the same ownership he's no champion but is so consistent he racks up the prize money.

Third placed CALVADOS BLUES (42) ran a big race to overcome severe traffic problems. But I wouldn't run away with the idea that he's about to win at the top level. He's a pig of a horse to ride due to his high head carriage. This explains why he's won just one of his last thirteen starts.

For me the most interesting performance of the entire race was that by DANGEROUS MIDGE(-5) who finished tailed off last.

Given his traffic shy nature, it was a shrewd move by Martin Dwyer to get hustle dangerous Midge into the lead from his wide draw before the first turn then settle into second and third thereafter. Unfortunately he took a bump from eventual fourth placed Laaheb rounding the home turn and quickly proceeded to down tools, dropping himself out rapidly through the field. Dwyer clearly felt something was amiss as he didn't ride him from two furlongs out.

However a subsequent veterinary exam found nothing wrong with Dangerous Midge and it was very interesting to see that he had his ears pricked as he dropped back through the field. That's a clear sign he was not physically distressed.

This is hardly the first time Dangerous Midge has behaved in this way.

Six runs back at Royal Ascot Dangerous Midge was being rowed along vigorously by halfway. In fact Dwyer gave him a stiff crack with the whip. He rolled along gradually closing the gap late in proceedings, and it was kind of worrying how he had his ears pricked as he did so but clearly wasn't doing a tap despite his jockey's urgings.

The run before it was a similar story. Dwyer was really earning his keep soon after halfway by stoking Dangerous Midge up vigorously. But again his mount wasn't responding despite looking to be cruising and having his ears pricked once more. He eventually dropped his hands in the final furlong and Dangerous Midge showed his appreciation by slowing up and getting beat 14 lengths.

It now looks clear that the huge fields in those two contests, in the Sheema Classic and the Ebor where he also ran unplaced, are not to Dangerous Midge's liking and that he only consents to extend himself when there's no risk of having to fight his way through serious traffic.

Dangerous Midge did win a fourteen runner race once. But he outclassed the opposition that day and was clear from a long way out before eventually scoring by eight lengths. In his other four tries in fields bigger than twelve he's finished sixth or worse. In fields of twelve or less he's won five out of six.

Dangerous Midge is a seriously good horse in relatively small fields, as he showed when winning the Breeders' Cup Turf. The one race where he can be almost sure of meeting a small enough field and avoiding the top three year olds plus brilliant French duo of Planteur and Behkabad is the King George. That race just has to be his big target before his attempt at a repeat win in the Breeders Cup Turf. As with prince Bishop, I wish the bookies had him marked up for that race as I'd love to take a big price about him winning it.