ASIATIC BOY MIGHT WELL BE AS GOOD ON TURF

ASIATIC BOY (37) didn't have to run up to his best to take the UAE Derby by a wide margin. But he was very impressive and is clearly a smart horse on dirt. This being so you might think it's foolhardy for his connections to be aiming him at the Queen Anne Stakes on turf. However there are good indications that he may well be just as good on grass.

When he broke his maiden at San Isidro in Argentina it was in a turf race. And the speed rating he earned from the (in my experience highly accurate) www.revistapalermo.com translates to 39 on my scale. That's a huge number for a two year old, especially over a trip as long as seven furlongs.

I don't think revistapalermo.com got the rating wrong for that race because the half length runner up was Gran Estreno who went on to classic success in the Group 1 Gran Premio Clasico Jockey Club.

The Queen Anne looks a good target on a couple of grounds. Firstly it's on a straight course and this means the early pace is likely to be strong which is what a dirt runner tends to need to be effective on turf. In addition it's invariably run on firm ground which is normally the surface dirt runners require on grass.

INVASOR IS UNSTOPPABLE ON DIRT

When I watched PREMIUM TAP (44) kick for home in the Dubai World Cup I was worried that he was going too strongly for INVASOR (45). Then I remembered the words of Kiaran McLaughlin who said "Invasor always manages to find a way to win". Sure enough, Invasor ground away at Premium Tap's lead with great determination and kept on with tremendous energy all the way to the line. Eventually Premium Tap cracked and Invasor was going away inside the last furlong to score by nearly two lengths.

The situation is best summed up by Kent Desormeaux, Premium Tap's jockey: "At the 400 meters, I couldn't lose, I had so much horse, I was going to win easily. But the last 200 meters, he just ate me up, stride by stride."

This was yet another remarkable performance by Invasor who is undoubtedly the best dirt runner we've seen in several years.

I have little doubt that Invasor will surpass Cigar's earnings record of ten million dollars this year and wouldn't dream of opposing him.

Having said that, Premium Tap just keeps on running bigger and bigger speed ratings and is clearly a very good horse in his own right. His big problem is that he is very stoutly bred for an American horse and stays a mile and a half well. This being so he's always going to be vulnerable in the big US dirt races, most of which are run over nine furlongs or less.

VENGEANCE OF RAIN WOULD HAVE NO CHANCE IN KING GEORGE

It was unfortunate that the Dubai Sheema Classic was run at such a slow early pace. This meant the race played into the hands of Vengeance Of Rain (37) who is used to winning the very slow run middle distance races they stage in Hong Kong. Okay he's now won eight of the nine times he's run ten furlongs plus. But that's been in slow run races in Hong Kong and in this race. I flat out don't believe he'd have a prayer if he ran in the King George as that race invariably features a searching end to end gallop.

The slow early pace compromised the chances of several runners, most notably the strongest finishers YOUMZAIN (36) and POP ROCK (35). My analysis indicated that these were the two key players before the race, and my gut feel, having watched the race a couple of times, is that they would indeed have fought out the finish in a truly run race.

The only previous time that Youmzain had been beaten in a race of 12 furlongs or more was when he went under by just half a length to the Arc winner Rail Link. He's already a Group 1 winner and looks likely to add to his score at the top level this season.

Pop Rock is a tall, deep chested, long striding horse. He's shown consistently brilliant form in the strongly run mile and a half races they have in Japan but found the early crawl of the Caulfield Cup playing against him in Australia just as he did here. He'd be a very interesting contender for the King George if he shipped over.