IRRIDESCENCE LOOKING GOOD FOR DUBAI DUTY FREE

Three years ago Team Valor and Mike de Kock took the Dubai Duty Free with the South African filly Ipi Tombe. Now they have a great chance of repeating the trick with IRRIDESCENCE (42).

Irridescence was a Group 1 winner In South Africa and ran fast enough to win a European Group 1 when taking a valuale Listed race over the course and distance of the Dubai Duty Free. She showed a useful turn of foot to put away the very smart SATWA QUEEN (41).

The going was yielding following ran, and this may well be significant for Satwa Queen. She'd lost the previous three times she'd run on ground faster than good according to my going allowances and was unbeaten in three tries on genuinely good or softer going. Another possible interpretation of Satwa Queen's form is that she's best fresh. But I prefer the soft ground theory as Satwa Queen's dam does seem a strong influence for mud. She's produced a couple of winners on the sand in Morocco, but nine of the ten wins her progeny have scored when there has been an official going report have been on good to soft or softer ground. This being so I'd expect Satwa Queen to run below this form if she runs in Dubai again - because soft ground is so rare there. But I'd bet on her winning one of Europe's big races for fillies when she gets her ground later in the season. She got to within two lengths of the winner in the Group 1 Prix L'Opera on fast ground last year. This run suggests she could win a race like that with cut in the ground.

REMEMBER BAHIANO ON DERBY DAY

CARTOGRAPHY (39) clocked a solid Group class time to win a valuable 6.5f handicap at Nad Al Sheba. He was third in the Free Handicap and the Jersey Stakes the only other times he's run beyond six furlongs and is clearly very useful around this distance. If he ships over to Europe he'll be an interesting candidate for 7f Group races.

Runner-up BAHIANO (39) has only won one of his last thirty one races. But I suspect this is because he's very difficult to place. It seems to me he's best around a turn, and that's not great for a sprinter based in Britain where almost all sprint races are run on straight courses. So far Bahiano has run in three turf sprints around a turn and would have won them all but for two very narrow losses. He's run well up the straight at Newmarket, and perhaps the uphill finish helps him there - so I'd be interested to see how he'd do at very stiff tracks like Beverley, Carlisle, Hamilton, Newcastle or Pontefract over six furlongs. Most likely though we're going to have to wait until the Vodafone Sprint handicap run around the turn at Epsom's Derby meeting to see Bahiano at his best again. Bahiano finsihed like a train to lose that race by a head last year and looks an interesting prospect for the 2006 renewal.

JACK SULLIVAN IS BORDERLINE GROUP 1

JACK SULLIVAN (41) repeated last year's win in round 2 of the Group 3 Maktoum Challenge at Nad Al Sheba over nine furlongs. In doing so he earned a big speed rating from me that's close to Group 1 class.  He'd actually earned a slightly bigger rating (42) when second to Layman over a mile last year, and I suspect that he's slightly better over the shorter trip.  This being so it's a logical move to sidestep the Dubai World Cup and shoot for the Godolphin Mile instead.  He ought to be a major player in that race. Meanwhile he has an excellent chance of repeating another of last year's wins in the upcoming Burj Nahaar over the same course and distance as the Godolphin Mile.

SAFE STRUCTURE HAS A SHOT IN GOLDEN SHAHEEN

SAFE STRUCTURE (41), one of South Africa 's top sprinters won a valuable 6.5f handicap at Nad Al Sheba in a time that would give him a shot in the Dubai Golden Shaheen.  He's already won twice on dirt and is by a sire that has already produced two big race winners on dirt at Nad Al Sheba (National Currency and Grand Emporium).  If the American team is weak for the big race Safe Structure could well take it.

GOLD FOR SALE NOT THAT FAST

GOLD FOR SALE (36) won the UAE Guineas, and at first glance his record looks impressive.  He's now won all six of his starts including a grade 1 in Argentina .

The problem is Argentine Grade 1's are generally equivalent to Group 3 races in major racing countries.  The UAE Guineas is a Group 3 race and I'd say that's his level.  If you convert the very accurate speed ratings carried on www.revistapalermo.com to my scale you'll find that the biggest number he earned over there was equivalent to 36, exactly the same rating I awarded him for his win at Nad Al Sheba.   You might think he should have improved since then, but remember he's actually a four year old and was only allowed to run in this race thanks to the unusual conditions they have for races in the UAE - conditions I wholeheartedly approve of incidentally.  Anything that encourages international competition is a great idea as far as I'm concerned, and the UAE's enlightened move enables the classic generations of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere to take each other on which can only be good for racing.

In any event, I'm doubtful about Gold For Sale's prospects of extending his unbeaten streak to seven in the UAE Derby.  First of all I  don't think he's fast enough.  Secondly, seeing that his sire's biggest win came over 5.5f and that Gold For Sale sidestepped races beyond a mile in Argentina, I'm concerned that he may not see out the extra furlong of the UAE Derby.

As I see it the best UAE Derby prospect to take out of the UAE Guineas has to be FLASHING NUMBERS (30).  He came from last in the field of 15 with 5f to run to reach fourth despite meeting interference.  He's already placed in Group 1 company over longer and will surely improve for the step up to 9f in the UAE Derby.  He's dirt bred, so the UAE Derby surely represents his best chance of a big win this year.

KODIAC IS GROUP CLASS

KODIAC (38) won a valuable Nad Al Sheba handicap in a time that would take most Group 3's.  He's clearly best at six and six and a half furlongs.  I also suspect that he prefers small fields such as the one he raced in here.  He's encountered traffic problems in six of his thirteen starts to date.  He has won against decent company in big fields but the successes came at Newbury and Newmarket , Britain 's two widest tracks.  On narrower courses or around a turn I'd be worried about betting him in fields of 12 or more.  If he were mine I'd be keeping him to pattern company from now on as the fields for Listed and Group races tend to be smaller than handicaps.

BEWARE OF OPPOSING CAESAR

CAESAR BEWARE (43) was a sensationally good two year old before only managing two starts last year. But he showed he was better than ever when winning an extremely valuable handicap at Nad Al Sheba from a very strong field indeed.

Caesar Beware clearly appreciated the step up to 7.5 furlongs and ran away from his rivals following a slow start. The speed rating I awarded him was solid Group 1 class. It makes Caesar beware look a live candidate for big early season mile races in Europe like the Muguet and the Lockinge.