POLAR MAGIC SHOULD GO FOR BREEDERS' CUP MILE

POLAR MAGIC (41) ran a near Group 1 time to take a hot 7.5f handicap at Nad Al Sheba from SUBPOENA (38) who'd run so fast at a slightly shorter trip the week before.

I used to think that Polar Magic disliked firm ground. But I now believe that he simply needs a relatively tight turn. After all he has now run five times on courses 11f or less in circumference and won every single time. And he's lost all twelve times he's run on bigger tracks or up the straight.

If he were mine I'd be shipping Polar Magic to America and aiming him at the Breeders' Cup Mile. Every race he ran in over there would be around a tight turn. But if he goes back to Europe he'll face almost nothing but straight courses or great big galloping tracks in big handicaps or Group races at his sort of distance.

ROYAL ALCHEMIST SMART BUT HARD TO PLACE

The two most common patterns to be found in the form of racehorses are what I call 'the rest pattern' and ' the small field syndrome'. ROYAL ALCHEMIST (40) seems to conform to both. She appears best in fields of eleven or less and on her first two starts of the season or with a six week plus break thereafter. She's won or finished a very close second to a smart rival six of the seven times she's had her favoured combination of circumstances. And she showed just how smart she can be when running a time that ranks as Group 1 class for a mare to win a hot Listed race at Nad Al Sheba over the Dubai Duty Free trip.

Sadly Royal Alchemist has now had two runs this year. So we're probably going to have to wait quite a while until she's rested for six weeks or more and hits a smallish field once more. But she's smart enough for the wait to be worth while.

WILD SAVANNAH IS GROUP CLASS IN A SMALL FIELD

WILD SAVANNAH (39) has earned big speed ratings from me in the past and did so again when taking a hot ten furlong handicap at Nad Al Sheba.

It now looks likely that Wild Savannah is best in small fields. For most horses a small field means 11 runner or less, and it seems that way with Wild Savannah. If a photo had gone the other way he'd have won all five times he's run on grass in fields of eleven or less. This being so I hope he comes back to Europe as he'd do well in Group races where the fields are smaller than in the big handicaps he lost last year and the year before.

SUBPOENA SERVES NOTICE OF IMPROVEMENT

It takes a smart horse to win one of the valuable handicaps run at the Dubai Carnival. Most of the winners are around Group 2 class. That's certainly the case with SUBPOENA (41) who improved markedly on his second run for new his new trainer when winning a 6.5 furlong handicap in seriously fast time last week.

My best bet is that it was the cut back to a sprint trip that prompted Subpoena to improve. So I'll be very interested in his chances if he runs in a similar race before the big meeting is over.

ZEENO (39), a Group 1 winner in South Africa, ran a big race to finish second off a lengthy break. He only ran over six furlongs when he last ran as a two year old, but the way he finished here suggests that he's going to improve over a mile, perhaps more. I'd be wary of opposing him next time and wouldn't be at all surprised to see him prove competitive in Group 1 company once more.

FOLK IS A TOP CLASS FILLY

After studying the times they'd run in Brazil and Argentina I was convinced that Greetings (34) and SAMBA REGGAE (33) would fight out the finish of the UAE Guineas. But they only managed to fill the places behind the wide margin winner FOLK (39).

Folk ran just about as fast as a three year old filly can run this early in the year and is clearly a top class performer. She's won both her dirt starts by open lengths and will be very hard to beat in the UAE Oaks. I'd be surprised if she wasn't aimed at big American races after that, starting with the Kentucky Oaks (the top US race for 3YO fillies) in May. On this run she'd likely win that.

Samba Reggae had run as fast as the winner last time out according to the very accurate speed ratings carried by www.revistapalermo.com. But that was on grass at ten furlongs. Here, on dirt over a mile, all she could do was stay on towards the finish.

Samba Reggae's Argentine speed figures on dirt were no better than she earned here, even though she won a Grade 2 at Palermo on the surface. So I'm inclined to think that it's a switch to turf rather than a jump up in distance that she needs most.

BET ON CURRENT FORM AT THE WORLD CUP MEETING

Over the years we’ve been conditioned to largely ignore the local form when it comes to assessing the chances of runners at the Dubai World Cup meeting. It’s normally the horses who’ve flown in specially for the one big race which score. Those that have been winning earlier in the Dubai Carnival don’t do so well. This year however I’ve got to say we’ve seen a remarkable number of seriously fast performances at Nad Al Sheba - far more than in previous years. The races are all being contested by incredibly strong fields. This being so I would bet on most of the big races this time around going to horses that have already run at the Dubai Carnival. And if history is anything to go by you’ll get very nice odds about them.

CHARLIE COOL IMPROVES

CHARLIE COOL (40) looked a very promising horse last year. And he fulfilled all the promise when winning a valuable ten furlong turf handicap in Group 2 class time at Nad Al Sheba.

Charlie Cool ran faster here than he had when a close third to Formal Decree over a furlong shorter on his first Dubai start. And the way he finished here suggests he might improve more over a little bit further. This being so he looks a possible candidate for the Dubai Sheema Classic rather than the Dubai Duty Free. Certainly he ought to be winning something big this season judged on this run.

Runner-up BOOK OF MUSIC (40) is, like the winner, a relatively lightly-raced four year old who should be capable of scoring in Group company.

SANAYA WORTH A SHOT AT DUBAI DUTY FREE

SANAYA (39) had some very decent form in France last year but improved markedly to run away with a Listed race at Nad Al Sheba in very fast time. The speed rating she earned is borderline Group 1 class for a filly.

I note with interest that Sanaya has now won all three times she's run less than ten furlongs on fast ground. She won so well here that she's surely worth a shot at the Dubai Duty Free over nine furlongs. Later on she'll be a very interesting contender for any big fillies race over a mile or so.

QUIJANO MAKES IT NINE IN A ROW

QUIJANO (39) made it nine wins in a row when taking another red hot mile and a half handicap at Nad Al Sheba. He's only run a bit faster than this in the past but I think it would be dangerous to assume he's not going to make the improvement necessary to be a big player in the Dubai Sheema Classic. He seems to be one of those horses that only does what's required to win, so we may not have seen the best of him yet.

LAVEROCK (39) came within a short head of ending Quijano's lengthy winning streak and looks a serious contender for the Dubai Sheema Classic as well.

Last year Laverock won the Group 1 Prix d'Ispahan in fast time. And this run plus that Group 1 win in Italy prove that he's just as effective over a mile and a half.

A very interesting aspect of Laverock's form is that he has now won on his second run off a lay-of two months or more four times out of four. The Dubai Sheema Classic will he his second run since last October, so it should produce a peak performance from him. He might well be good enough to take the big race.

ASIATIC BOY STAYS A MILE, BUT HOW ABOUT 9F?

I voiced doubts about the ability of ASIATIC BOY (39) to get a mile. But he proved me wrong when taking the UAE Guineas. Once more he earned a speed rating from me that is Group 1 class for a three year old this early in the year. So clearly he must have a great shot of taking the UAE Derby if he stays the extra furlong. But he didn't manage the sub 13 second last furlong that I look for from an early season three year old bidding to step up to nine furlongs for the first time. Therefore I'm going to be taking him on again in the big race.

TRAFFIC GUARD (35) again finished the strongest and should improve for the extra furlong in the UAE Derby. But he's a big, strong horse who only ever seems to get going very late. So I just wonder if he'll be able to show his very best till he steps up to ten furlongs or more. If he were mine I'd be shipping him to America and aiming him at the Triple Crown races, majoring on the mile and a half Belmont Stakes.

SMART AND MIGHTY SHOULD WIN AGAIN

The Nad Al Sheba handicapper has an unenviable task in trying to assess form from innumerable different countries. So it's inevitable that the occasional error creeps in. This looked to be the case with the smart Australian horse SMART AND MIGHTY (40) who was assigned a lower weight than ten of his rivals in a mile handicap on turf at Nad Al Sheba despite some very useful form back home. It was no surprise therefore that he won.

I spent quite a while dredging through Smart And Mighty's Australian form on www.expertform.com. And my conclusion was that he is a very decent horse on anything but soft ground at trips longer than seven furlongs. He has now won seven of the ten times he's run in these circumstances. And he was second in his three losses on faster ground at longer trips, each time losing to Group winners - two of whom were Group 1 placed.

Smart And Mighty looked as good as ever judged on his latest Australian win in July at Eagle Farm. On that occasion he came nearly a second per mile closer to the track record than the next two fastest races on the card (both high class handicaps). And there's just no way I could make the ballpark speed rating I gave him for that win lower than 40 on my scale. He ran to exactly that figure at Nad Al Sheba which is equivalent to Group 2 class.

It's tempting to think that Smart And Mighty now shapes up as a contender for the Dubai Duty Free over nine furlongs. But the fact that he's never run beyond a mile in his 42 race career coupled with the fact that he took 12.8 seconds to run the last furlong persuades me that he won't get the extra furlong. However he looks more than good enough to follow up this win in another mile handicap on the same course soon.

If there was a Dubai Duty Free contender in the race it's surely the runner-up YASOODD (40). He ran a big race off a six month break over the Dubai Duty Free course and distance on his latest start and improved on that effort here. He was finishing best of all, so it looks like nine furlongs is the perfect trip for him, which is exactly what Mick Channon said when he trained Yasoodd in Britain.

KANDIDATE DOES IT ON DIRT

There are now three surfaces in horse-racing: Grass, Dirt and Polytrack. And it has made the game a good deal harder to analyse.

Normally it's a fair bet that a horse which acts on firm turf will act on Polytrack and vice versa. But it's still hard to tell whether a Polytrack or turf performer will act on dirt, especially the former.

Last week we saw a worrying example of this when KANDIDATE (42) won Round 2 of the Maktoum Challenge on dirt at Nad Al Sheba in a time that makes him a serious contender for the Dubai World Cup.

Kandidate had won four of the previous five times he'd run on Polytrack but had run unplaced all four times he'd run on dirt. The logical conclusion seemed to be that he preferred the artificial surface. But it now seems likely that the only thing he disliked about dirt was the kickback. He'd floundered when held up off the pace before in his dirt runs. But this time he was kicked into the lead from the start and thereby avoided any kickback.

In future when Kandidate runs on dirt we're going to have to figure out whether or not he's going to be able to enjoy an uncontested lead. If he is then he's clearly capable of beating just about anything. If he isn't then he'll probably run unplaced as he has before.

If he were mine I'd ship Kandidate to California where he'll be able to race exclusively on Polytrack or the very similar Tapeta and Cushion Tracks. He could rack up some big prize money there. But meanwhile it's definitely worth taking a shot at the final leg of the Maktoum Challenge and the Dubai World Cup with him. On the dirt surface those races are run on Kandidate is clearly what American punters call a 'need to lead' front runner. Such horses can often run amazingly fast when they have their own way up front, just as Kandidate did here. So If he can gain an uncontested lead in either of those races he'll be awfully hard to peg back.