DISCREET CAT RUNS FAST BUT CAN HE WIN DERBY?

DISCREET CAT (41) ran a big Group 1 time for a three year old this early in the year to take the Areej Trophy in Dubai on dirt. The distance was only a mile but his sire got the 10f Grade 3 Lexington Stakes winner last year and his dam won in Grade 1 company over the same trip. So it looks like Godolphin finally have a realistic shot of winning the Kentucky Derby.

On this run I have little doubt that Discreet Cat will win the upcoming UAE Derby, and do so impressively. However I would urge caution about betting him for the big American race. Since WWII 24 European horses have tried to win the Kentucky Derby and they've all failed. In fact the only one that placed was Bold Arrangement in 1986. This is highly significant because Bold Arrangement was also the ONLY European-trained horse to have his prep race for the Kentucky Derby in America. The flight from Dubai to America is longer than it is from Europe. So why should Discreet Cat do any better than the Europeans which didn't prep in America?

Okay I will concede that the Venezuelan horse Canonero II did ship straight in to Kentucky to take the Derby back in 1971. But Venezuela is in the Americas, much closer to Kentucky than Dubai. My gut feel is that for a young, immature horse to win such a competitive race it's probably got be be on the grounds or within a reasonable shipping distance to score.

Runner-up GOLDEN ACER (37) bounced back to his smart two year old form after two disappointing runs on the dirt at Nad Al Sheba. My best guess is that he wasn't fit for his first two races in Dubai. It could also be that he's best in smaller fields like the one he met here. In any event, if he does come back over to Europe this run suggests he'd be interesting in a minor Guineas trial on fast ground or the AW.

ELECTROCUTIONIST RUNS YET ANOTHER CRAZY TIME

I've been whittering on about the extraordinarily fast times clocked by ELECTROCUTIONIST (44) for nearly two years now. I've also gone on at length about his remarkable versatility. So I guess it shouldn't be such a surprise that he's just switched to dirt and run as fast as ever.

Electrocutionist won the third round of the Maktoum Challenge by seven lengths, earning yet another in a long series of monstrously big speed ratings from me.

The Dubai World Cup now looks to be pretty much a formality for Electrocutionist now. I just hope that the current political situation doesn't keep the best American horses from turning up. It would be a shame if such a big prize were turned into a public exercise gallop for a horse owned by the sponsors.