JALIL LOOKS A BIG PLAYER IN DUBAI WORLD CUP

Before this season only ten horses had clocked a time under 2m 1.4 seconds for ten furlongs on the dirt at Nad Al Sheba. Seven of the ten did so while winning the Dubai World Cup. Two of the other three did so in prep races before going on to win the Dubai World Cup. The only horse to run this fast that didn't win the Dubai World Cup was the very smart Altibr who never had the chance to run in the big race.

This season, outside of the hand-timed win of Familiar Territory which should really be recorded as 2m 1.9 there have been two horses that have clocked times under 2m 1.4s over ten furlongs at Nad Al Sheba. The first was Curlin who is two to one on favourite for the Dubai World Cup. The second is JALIL (43) who actually ran a bit faster than Curlin but was unaccountably as big as 12-1 with Paddy Power for the big race after winning and is still 10-1 in places.

Jalil's win was almost a mirror image of Curlin's effort. He was kept wide of the kickback in a strongly run race. Then he made smooth progress to lead with little pressure before edging clear in the closing stages to win full of running. Yes he was ridden a bit more vigorously than Curlin. But he clocked a time that was 0.25 seconds quicker on what I rated slightly slower going.

I confess I thought quite a bit before assigning Jalil such a big speed rating. But there was no way around it. Sectional times suggest the next two fastest dirt races were truly run. So the only way I could assign a lower speed rating to Jalil would be to assume that all the horses in the two other races ran exactly the same amount below form, which is hardly likely. The only logical conclusion is that Jalil merits a speed rating of 43 which is basically the same as the best ratings earned by Curlin in the States.

As I see it the Dubai World Cup has now boiled down to a very clear match between Jalil and Curlin. The rest are just playing for places. It could well be that Curlin wins the match. But at 20 times the price I know which one I'd rather be betting.

I like the way GLORIA DE CAMPEAO (42) rallied to get back up for second after being squeezed out when the winner and third LUCKY FIND (40) kicked clear to start a duel from before the two furlong mark. He's clearly very useful over ten furlongs despite his previous form all being over shorter trips. And the funny thing is he has the build of a twelve furlong turf horse to me. So I'd be interested if he were given a shot at the Dubai Sheema Classic. But logically he now must go for the Dubai World Cup.

Lucky Find, improved for the step up in trip to take third, just like he improved over longer in his native South Africa. I suspect if he hadn't engaged in such a protracted duel with the winner he might just have sneaked second. He's definitely worth a shot at the Dubai World Cup where I can see him reaching a place.

MOURILYAN BEATEN BY THE PACE

"Mourilyan is loping along at the tail of the field and must be the best part of fourteen lengths from the leader" said the commentator as they rounded the home turn in the Group 3 Dubai City Of Gold at Nad Al Sheba. This was unfortunate because the leaders had just increased what had been a slow early gallop and then accelerated a gain soon after. As a result MOURILYAN (39) was left with the impossible task of trying to gain a huge amount into an accelerating pace.

It was certainly entertaining to watch Mourilyan make the attempt as he flew up the homestraight, clocking an amazing 23.69 seconds for the final quarter mile. But it always looked like his effort was going to fall slightly short and it duly did so with Mourilyan failing by half a length to catch the winner GOWER SONG (39).

Mourilyan ran a bit quicker than this according to my speed ratings on his last two runs. And he'll almost certainly do so again in the Dubai Sheema Classic. He's won when ridden closer to the pace in the past. With this lesson to learn from he will now surely not be kept so far back in the big race next time. I still see him as the one they all have to beat there.

Gower Song produced a big finish of her own. But she was a vital two lengths closer to the pace than Mourilyan with a quarter of a mile to run and that's what won her the race. Clearly she's a useful performer over a mile and a half. Indeed this effort makes her look a serious contender for Group 1 success against her own sex in the Yorkshire Oaks or Prix Vermeille. Against males though she's just not quick enough to score at the top level.

WILL CURLIN SHOW THIS SORT OF FORM IN THE DUBAI WORLD CUP

At an age when their careers should have been in decline American baseball players Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens both visibly put on an extraordinary volume of extra muscle and started doing things no baseball players had ever done before. It's hard to prove definitively that either of them were using steroids. But you won't find many baseball fans who believe they didn't.

Weirdly, while steroids are banned in every other sport, including baseball, their use is endemic in American horse racing. And the extraordinary thing is they're perfectly legal.

I once owned a small share in a filly that ran in America. One of other part owners queried an item called 'Winstrol' that appeared on the training bill and was told that it was an anabolic steroid. The trainer said that he had to administer the steroids on a regular basis otherwise our filly wouldn't be strong enough to compete with other fillies in America, all of whom were on the drug just like her.

There are some moves afoot to slightly limit the use of steroids in American horse-racing, but they don't amount to much. So when I see an American horse that looks as freakishly muscular as CURLIN (39) I'm always deeply suspicious.

Curlin was certainly impressive as he cruised home in his prep race for the Dubai World Cup at Nad Al Sheba. But I have to say I'm wondering whether he'll be able to show the same sort of form in four weeks time. Dubai operates a strict no steroids policy. And, as I understand it from a web search, the effect of steroids starts to wear off in 14-60 days.

American racing journalists have noted that many of their horses seem to lose form immediately following a visit to Dubai. My belief is that the forced withdrawal from steroids plays a part in this. With Curlin arriving in Dubai so much earlier than any American runner ever has before I will be very interested to see if he starts losing his form while he's still over there.

Maybe I'm wrong to be suspicious of Curlin. However I fervently believe that American horses should be prevented from running abroad until America totally bans the use of steroids just like every other country. The top races should be won by natural talent not chemistry. This is universally accepted in every other sport. Why not in horse-racing?