PACE (AND TRAFFIC) MAKES THE RACE FOR WELL ARMED

One big reason why I figured the habitual front runner WELL ARMED (40) would not win the Dubai World Cup was the presence of third favourite CASINO DRIVE (22). The Japanese horse was the fastest in the race in my estimation and looked sure to press Well Armed hard enough for the early lead to test his suspect stamina. As it turned out there was a lot of scrimmaging in the first furlong and a half. During this Casino Drive was squeezed out and had to be taken up, falling backwards onto ARSON SQUAD (20) causing that one to run into his rear not once but twice.

Arson Squad reared more than any horse I've ever seen during a race the first time he collided with Casino Drive's back end. I imagine Casino Drive got badly cut into and this is why he failed to get back up to dispute the lead as he normally does. The favourite ASIATIC BOY (18), who always presses the pace as well, was also hampered and taken up sharply, having earlier collided with Snaafy at the start. The second favourite ALBERTUS MAXIMUS (24), was forced wide and pulled too hard for his own good when restrained in an attempt to get a trip he'd previously shown he didn't stay.

MY INDY (26), fourth in the betting, ended up marooned out wide in second spot seeing way too much daylight in a race where his jockey almost certainly expected far more cover from those that got hampered. Instead of being able to nurse his mount home over a trip he looked doubtful to stay he ended up with a horse that raced rankly as he tried to impose some sort of restraint.

Another big sufferer in what was a very rough race was MUHANNAK (17) who took a hefty bump from Arson Squad at the start, dropped out quickly to be tailed off last and probably made up the lost ground too quickly. The fancied SNAAFY (20) got squeezed out just after the start as well. Then there was the diminutive HAPPY BOY (22) who had looked set to run yet another big race. But he was forced out horribly wide by the rugby scrum occurring on his inside and probably lost all chance as a result.

Well Armed enjoyed a simply enormous advantage by being in the lead and away from all this traffic. And with all his main rivals effectively out of the race and competition for the lead removed, he was able to set such a soft pace and save so much energy he actually managed to accelerate after they'd run seven furlongs - something almost unheard of in a big dirt race. He sustained the burst for almost two furlongs and ended up strolling to a 14 length win in a race where he'd seemed up against it on all past form.

In a lengthy career Well Armed had never looked capable of beating top class rivals by such a big margin, certainly not over ten furlongs. As it turned out he enjoyed a lifetime of luck in one race and ended up winning big despite clocking a time one and a half seconds slower than Dubai Millennium, the fastest ever winner of the race. I'd say one and a half seconds fairly represents the difference between the two horses and that Well Armed is nothing like as good as the bare form of this race makes him look.

Horses always seem to get beat by huge margins when they suffer interference on dirt as opposed to turf or synthetic surfaces. That certainly was the case here. And I dare say the interference that occurred in this race is going to have an influence on the upcoming decision whether to lay dirt or a synthetic surface at the new course being built to replace Nad Al Sheba. With American tracks switching to synthetic surfaces at a rate of knots I'd say what happened in the last race ever run at Nad Al Sheba was the final nail in the coffin for dirt at the Dubai World Cup fixture.

GLADIATORUS AND PRESVIS ARE WORLD CLASS

The Dubai Duty Free is the world's richest turf race. So it's fitting that it produced the best performance we've seen all year on the clock. The winner GLADIATORUS (43) ran yet another sensational time. He made all the running at a searching pace and had enough left to hold the extraordinary late run of the brilliant PRESVIS (41).

I wasn't sure whether Gladiatorus would stay the nine furlongs, which was a furlong longer than he'd ever gone before. But he did so, earning the same monstrous speed rating I'd awarded for his success over a mile last time out.

Gladiatorus now rejoins Godolphin and looks set to be very tough to beat in Europe's top mile races. Whether he'll get ten furlongs I can't say. But the race to try it in is surely the Eclipse, a race that so often goes to a smart miler. The logical prep for that would be the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot, a race Godolphin specialize in winning.

I'm doubtful whether Gladiatorus will be able to show this sort of form on anything but a fast surface. But that's no big problem as most of the world's top races are run on a fast surface.

Gladiatorus has won nine of the eleven times he's run seven furlongs or more. One of his losses was a half length defeat by Scintillo in Italy's top two year old race. After Scintillo's recent win in the Winter Derby that form is not looking bad at all. I suspect Scintillo is going to be competitive once more in Group 1 races following his blank year at three.

Luca Cumani, the trainer of Presvis, took a long time deciding whether to step the horse up to a mile and a half for the Sheema Classic or cut him back to the nine furlongs of this contest. It was a tough decision because Presvis had previously shown all his best form over ten furlongs.

As was the case on his last run, Presvis dropped right out to trail the field. In fact his jockey allowed him to do so in order to swing right across from his extreme outside draw to get the rail.

As they entered the straight, with only three furlongs left, Presvis was stone last of the 16 runners. Sectional times show that he was 22 lengths behind at that point. He simply took off from there to gain a ludicrous amount of ground and lose by only three and a quarter lengths. If the race had been a furlong longer he would undoubtedly have blown by Gladiatorus to win by a couple of lengths. And we'd all be hailing him as a champion.

I have no doubt that Presvis is a world class horse over a mile and a quarter and would not dream of opposing him over the distance on a firm surface. The obvious target for him this year just has to be the Breeders' Cup Classic. Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator showed last year that the Pro Ride surface the Classic is run on again this year suits turf horses. And the sire of Presvis, Sakhee, came within a short head of winning the race when it was run on dirt.

The big stumbling block is that the owners of Presvis will have to pay an enormous supplementary entry fee to make their horse eligible for the big American race because he is not Breeders' Cup nominated. This being so, if they end up laying a synthetic surface at Meydan for next year's Dubai World Cup, that contest will become the most economically viable option for Presvis to make the switch from turf.

It may well be that Cumani is right and that Presvis will stay a mile and a half. After all, his sire and dam both won over the trip. This would make the Arc an attractive target. In any event, wherever he goes I'm going to need a lot of convincing to ever oppose Presvis in future.

TIME TO GET SOME DUTY FREE VODKA

I got the strong impression that I was watching the winner of the Dubai Duty Free when seeing VODKA (39) have such an unlucky passage in the big prep race last week. All the way around the track she was clearly going better than any of her rivals. It simply looked like a matter of when jockey Yutaka Take chose to press the button.

Unfortunately as the closing stages approached it became apparent that Vodka was totally boxed in on the rail with nowhere to go. Take was able to ride her for a few strides only and was eventually forced into the embarrassing position of passing the post with a double handful while all the horses around him were being hard ridden.

I guess you could argue that Take could have resorted to more desperate measures to try and force his way through. But this was only a prep race, and you could hardly have asked for a better one from Vodka who has proven herself to be one of the best racemares on the planet in recent years. She was Japan's horse of the year last season and earned a special achievement award the year before that. On this showing I suspect she's on target to win her third big annual award.

Vodka has won two Group 1's at a mile and broke the course record when taking the Group 1 Tenno Sho over ten furlongs. So the nine furlongs of the Dubai Duty Free looks perfect for her. She went close in the race last year and you won't find me betting against her taking it this time around.

The winner BALIUS (41) produced a good turn of foot to win the race. He'd gone close in three big international races in recent starts and clearly likes the tighter turns, faster ground and sprint finishes that you tend to encounter in such contests. He's clearly one of the key players in the Dubai Duty Free.

JAY PEG (40) continues to improve as he gets fitter, just as he did at the Dubai Carnival last year. This run should put him spot on for his defense of the Duty Free next time.

HUGE RUN BY NAVAL OFFICER

If anyone ever had any doubt that the best horse doesn't always win they need only watch the video of last week's Meydan Classic at Nad Al Sheba. NAVAL OFFICER (31) was clearly far better than any of his rivals but managed to lose thanks to experiencing a ludicrous amount of traffic problems and being asked to gain ground into an accelerating pace off a modest early gallop.

Naval Officer earned a big write up from me when winning the Prix de Conde in France last year and struck me as the best Prix du Jockey Club prospect to have run all season. He should have won all four of his juvenile starts but lost narrowly once by running green.

Before his run in Dubai Naval Officer had looked rather a tricky ride due to his habit of sticking his head up in the air. The standard solution for this is to fit a sheepskin noseband. This forces a horse to put their head down to see the ground in front of them, thus giving the jockey more control.

The equipment was duly tried by new trainer Jerry Barton in Dubai and it worked. Naval Officer still raced with his head a little high but he settled at the back, with his head in a much more normal position, looking very tractable.

Naval Officer was a long way back approaching the homestraight, but this should have been no problem as he showed in France that he can pick off the leaders with an electrifying burst of speed. Indeed he quickly surged through down on the rail as they entered the straight, only to find his passage blocked by a wall of horses. His rider allowed him to drop back again slightly and took the gamble of waiting for a gap to appear. Sadly it never did.

Eventually, far too late to have any real impact on the race, Naval Officer was yanked out violently around the line of horses in front of him to the centre of the course. Once there he lengthened, showing that beautiful flowing stride and blistering burst of speed he'd displayed in France. He was cutting down the leaders with every stride and would have got up with another fifty yards to travel but had to be content with third.

Naval Officer was full of run at the finish and will clearly stay a whole lot further than the seven and a half furlongs of this contest. I have no doubt that he is a future Group 1 middle distance star. His stride pattern strongly suggests that he'll prefer fast ground. And his physique looks that of a ten furlong runner to me.

I know that you could argue Naval Officer has the pedigree to adapt to dirt and that therefore he's a serious contender for the UAE Derby. But in my experience horses with a turn of foot as good as his are always better on grass.

It's interesting to note that Naval Officer is the only three year old that's entered in the Dubai Duty Free. He's also the only member of his generation in the Sheema Classic. But, though those races are run on what is surely the right surface for him, it's hard to see how a three year old could possibly beat the world's top older horses this early in the season. This being so I'm hoping to see Naval Officer skip the World Cup meeting and head back to France to be prepared for the Prix du Jockey Club, even though I recognise that his new Saudi-based owner and trainer make this look unlikely.

BIG CITY MAN CAN TURN THIS FORM AROUND

BIG CITY MAN (40) looked set to win the big prep for the Dubai Golden Shaheen when getting the better of the Godolphin runner DIABOLICAL (37) with a furlong and a half to run. But once he'd kicked clear I got the impression he was idling and suffered from the fact that his challenger GAYEGO (41) was racing about eight horses widths away. I feel if they'd raced alongside each other the competition would have encouraged Big City Man to come out on top.

Big City Man was used to running around a turn in America, so always had horses or a rail alongside him over there. He also had company all the way when winning so impressively at Nad Al Sheba on his previous outing. Here, for the first time in his career, he was asked to run without company and didn't seem to like it. His jockey seemed to sense this and gave him a sharp crack of the whip inside the last furlong. But this simply caused Big City Man to flash his tail rather than run harder.

Big City Man should have company for longer in the big race itself, and I reckon that he'll improve as a result.

I' not quite convinced that Gayego is a natural over six furlongs. He's a great big strapping sort that showed smart form over nine furlongs in America and is clearly built for that sort of trip. Here he was stretched by the early pace and only got going late. He did come through smoothly to win on the bridle, and you could argue that the stronger early pace that's likely in the Golden Shaheen will set the race up for him. But I suspect he will simply get even more badly outpaced and not be able to recover the ground he'll lose as a result.

Diabolical simply seems to be a good yardstick at this sort of level. He's lost the nine most valuable races he's contested and won five of the six least valuable.

WILL THE WORLD CUP BE A REPEAT OF THE MAKTOUM CHALLENGE?

I got the somewhat worrying feeling from watching the third leg of the Maktoum Challenge that we may just have seen a preview of the Dubai World Cup itself. After all the three best dirt horses at the Dubai Carnival ran 1-2-3 in ASIATIC BOY (42) , HAPPY BOY (40) and ART OF WAR (36). And it looked like a very high class race indeed.

As I've mentioned before, Art Of War is only a medium sized horse that doesn't seem to do well when asked to race in heavy traffic. So it was a smart move on his jockey's part to kick on into the lead right from the start. This kept the horse out of trouble. But unfortunately it looked like he was always going a step too fast to secure the lead. So it was no surprise to see him tire in the last two furlongs, though he rallied nicely to stop KIRKLEES snatching fourth place from him.

Sixteen runners lined up for this race which looks too many for Art Of War. I continue to believe that he's going to be winning at the top level on dirt when he hits a field smaller than twelve.

Happy Boy is also not very big. But he seems to have no problem in big fields. He bolted up by nine lengths from the high class Gloria De Campeao on his sole start at the Dubai Carnival last year. But, like a lot of horses this year, he seems to have needed a run or two to get fit this time around. He gave Asiatic Boy a real race until not being able to contain his rival inside the last furlong. In can't see why he should turn this form around in the big race. However he is clearly very smart on dirt and must have some sort of shot.

Asiatic Boy surely established himself as the one they all have to beat in the World Cup with this run. He came through smoothly to take the lead and didn't have to battle long with the runner up before surging clear in the closing stages. He's been remarkably consistent on dirt all through his career and my impression is that he's now better than ever.

Kirklees showed a funny stride pattern as he tried to get by Art Of War for third in the closing stages, looking uncomfortable on the surface. I think he needs to go back to turf where he must have a real shot of winning another Group 1 over 10 furlongs if he can be kept sound.

ART OF WAR SHOWS WHY HE PREFERS SMALL FIELDS

If ART OF WAR (38) had run to the same level of form he showed on his previous start he would undoubtedly have won the Meydan Hotel Trophy at Nad Al Sheba last week. Unfortunately, as I've mentioned before, he seems to be unsuited to really big fields like the one he faced here.

Previously I thought it was Art Of War's running style that gave him problems in big fields. I figured he was just a grinder that lacked pace and was hard to manouver. But he showed the real reason all too clearly in the Meydan Hotel Trophy. It turns out he's just not big enough to fight for position in a race.

Art Of War is only a medium sized horse and this became apparent as soon as they jumped off here. He started well but was quickly swallowed up by clearly bigger rivals who penned him in about sixth spot, making him almost invisible as their bigger forms shielded his slighter physique from view.

There was no way Art Of War was going to fight his way through the traffic. So his jockey swung him out wide turning for home. The horse burned up a lot of energy to make up the ground required to challenge from such a wide slot and it was just too much for him. He looked briefly as if he might do it but tired late to fill an honourable second to the smart GLORIA DE CAMPEO (41).

In a small field I'd bet Art Of War to beat just about anything. He earned a proper Group 1 rating of 42 from me last time. And if three very narrow and unlucky defeats had gone his way he would have won the last seven times he's run in fields of ten or less. (He's lost all thirteen times he's faced more starters.)

It's hard to tell exactly what the cut off point for Art Of War is. But for most horses that prefer small fields eleven is the maximum number of runners they can handle when racing anywhere close to their class. I'd bet on that being the case with Art Of War.

I'm now fervently hoping that the Dubai World Cup cuts up to eleven runners or less. But it looks like there's only about a 20% chance of that happening. So it looks like I'll have to root for trainer Mike De Kock to adopt my back up plan for Art Of War which involves shipping him to the East Coast of America where there are stacks of valuable races run on dirt - almost all of which feature small fields.

Surely, with any sort of luck, Art Of War is going to land something really big on dirt this year.

Gloria De Campeo won five of the six times he ran below Group 1 class in his native Brazil, finished third in his two Group 1 tries and ran second to top class rivals in his first three Dubai starts last year. He seemed to need his first couple of runs this year but bounced back to form with what was probably his best lifetime effort here. He's a decent horse though probably just shy of Group 1 class. But it's a measure of how weak the field for this year's Dubai World Cup looks set to be that I can say he must have a real shot of at least placing there.

VERACITY A BIG THREAT TO YEATS IN GOLD CUP

VERACITY (40) won the first running of the DRC Gold Cup from a very strong field in the style of a Group 1 stayer. His rider, Frankie Dettori, kicked for home fully five furlongs out off what had been a modest gallop to make his stamina tell, and the tactic worked. Veracity kept on strongly all the way to the line and always looked like holding the late rally of the smart runner up MOURILYAN (40), though only winning narrowly.

Veracity got beat two lengths by Champion stayer Yeats over half a mile short of two miles in the Prix Royal Oak last year. But he's now won all three times he's run the full two miles or more. He's a well balanced, muscular, close coupled sort with an unusually good turn of foot for a stayer. I think he has a serious chance of taking his revenge on Yeats in the Ascot Gold Cup on this showing.

Mourilyan put up a couple of dazzling performances at the Dubai Carnival this year, coming from out of the clouds to win good races over a mile and a half. Seeing how strong he always finishes it's no big surprise that he's turned out to be a stayer.

It's worth noting that Mourilyan has now acquired bandages and shows a bit of knee action. This being so, I think I'd prefer him on a softer surface than he had at Nad Al Sheba. It was a terrific run on his part to gain so much ground late after the pace had quickened up so much when he was still far back.

I'm inclined to agree with the Aussie commentator Terry Spargo who said before the race that if he showed he stayed the trip Mourilyan might well develop into an interesting candidate for the Melbourne Cup in November, especially if it rains before that race. The big Australian race tends to go to a horse with a big finishing kick like Mourilyan.

J J THE JET PLANE LIVES UP TO HIS NAME

One of the biggest shocks of the Dubai Carnival came when South African Champion sprinter J J THE JET PLANE (42) lost on his first start.

Clearly trainer Mike De Kock was right to say that it was the dirt that beat J J The Jet Plane that day as he was unbeaten in sprints before that and returned to his best when put back on turf last week.

Moving strongly in second place in the early stages, J J The Jet Plane kicked on up the straight and was still full of run at the line as he went on to score.

This was a top class performance by J J The Jet Plane who has now won all seven sprints he's contested outside of that abortive try on dirt. He won so smoothly here I suspect he can run a smidge faster, and that would make him awfully tough to beat in the big European sprints he's now set to contest.

WORLD CLASS PERFORMANCE FROM PRESVIS

A few seasons back Luca Cumani had the best thoroughbred on the planet in Falbrav. Now it looks quite possible that he has another horse that can take some of the world's most valuable races in PRESVIS (42).

Presvis put up an extraordinary performance to win a red hot handicap at Nad Al Sheba. Settled last in a big field, he came through with remarkable speed in the last couple of furlongs to run down the leader and win by over three lengths. In doing so he clocked a slightly faster time for the last seven furlongs than international star Archipenko had in the previous race which was quarter of a mile shorter.

As I've mentioned before Presvis has a machine-like, flowing stride that's tailor made for the fast ground most of the world's big races are run on. With any sort of luck in running he would have won all six times he's run beyond a mile. I have no doubt that he is a serious Group 1 performer.

The one concern I have about this run is that it was so fast Presvis may not recover from it in time to be at his best for the Dubai Sheema Classic. But, seeing that he produced his best run last year on his fifth start in an eleven week period, I'm not that worried.

It would be a gross injustice if Presvis doesn't get invited to run in the Dubai Sheema Classic simply because he's never run in a pattern race. Whether you look at the clock or lines of form this run ranks right up there with the best any other horse entered for the race has produced - and certainly ahead of his stablemate Purple Moon who is already down to run.

Runner up YAHRAB (40) set the scorching pace that set up the fast final time. Against any normal rival the effort he made to burst clear entering the straight would have won him the race. But he just couldn't answer the winner's amazing finishing burst.

Yahrab won the first three times he ran ten furlongs, beating the very smart Eddie Jock and Baharan into second place in his most recent two wins. It looks like he needed his first two runs at the Dubai Carnival. But now he's clearly back to his very best. He's a good Group 2 horse on my ratings and will surely be winning more good races this year