DUBAI STEWARDS NEED TO CRACK DOWN ON DANGEROUS RIDING

There were so many incidents in running at last week's Dubai World Cup meeting that the Stewards' Report would fill this entire page. In the five most valuable races alone 41 of the 70 runners encountered or caused one or more traffic problems according to the Stewards.

In four of the six big races run around a turn the winner was simply the horse lucky enough to find itself in front entering the straight. It then won a flat out sprint finish which gave its pursuers little chance to gain significant ground while they got in each other's way.

None of the winners clocked a time fast enough to merit a proper Group 1 speed rating, not even when I adjust for the sprint finishes. So I have to believe that they all scored simply because they were among the minority to enjoy a trouble free passage and that there were one or more horses behind them that would have beaten them with a clear run.

It seems pretty clear to me that when you offer such enormous prize money it has to be accompanied by the threat of severe sanctions to jockeys who attempt to barge their way into the winner's enclosure. As it is I'd bet every jockey riding was aware of the incredibly liberal interpretation of the rules on interference which seem to be in place in Dubai, such that no pattern race winner has ever been disqualified for interference at Nad Al Sheba or Meydan as far as I can trace.

I've noted before the 42% increase in traffic incidents that coincided with the near 75% reduction in disqualifications in Britain in recent years due to the new policy of penalising jockeys rather than winners. By following the British example the Dubai Stewards turned the World Cup meeting into something more akin to a demolition Derby than the World's most important race meeting.

Perhaps it would be good to make the surface slower. This would expand the lengths between the runners and reduce interference. It would also be a smart idea to put in a false rail entering the straight to force the runners to fan out as they do in South Africa. Lowering the field sizes is another obvious idea. But the main thing surely is to get tougher on the jockeys. Right now they're clearly thinking more about earning a year's income by winning a single race than they are about the insignificant penalties they might possibly incur though hampering a rival.

In the circumstances I think it's best to focus on the horses that might have won with a clear run rather than the winners. The winners were mainly slow and unlikely to repeat their performances in more fairly run races. Many of the losers were unlucky and likely to improve past the winners.

One such horse was ENAK (34) who finished fourth in the UAE Derby. Early on Enak had plenty of racing room. But rounding the final turn things started to get horribly crowded down on the inside where he was racing. He was clearly not keen on racing so close to the other runners and his jockey had to ride him along to discourage him from backing off the traffic jam in front.

It was only inside the final furlong that the worst traffic incident in the race fortuitously opened up a gap for Enak to take. Two of the placed horses swerved across Izaaj, causing that one to be snatched up which left a gap for Enak. He surged forward but given the short distance remaining and the fact the first three were sprinting it's not surprising he couldn't gain much ground.

I've noted before that Enak clocked an extraordinarily fast time when winning Argentina's top two year old race over a mile - just a second off the brilliant Candy Ride's course and world record. He's clearly built for middle distances and may well be able to win another Group 1 or two for Godolphin in Europe this year.

Another obviously unlucky loser was ROCKET MAN (39) in the Dubai Golden Shaheen. He was level with the Japanese speedball Laurel Guerreiro. But his jockey seemed keen to back off a speed duel with that one and took a couple of looks over his shoulder before letting his mount drop in behind the leader. Unfortunately once he'd dropped back two horses came together in front of him, creating a pocket that he had to manouver out of in the straight. He rallied strongly once clear and was gaining all the way to the line to lose narrowly for only the second time in his ten race career. I've little doubt that Rocket Man will show he's better than this later on.

BUENA VISTA (40) was desperately unlucky to lose the Dubai Sheema Classic. She had to swing wide as the field fanned right out entering the straight then needed to weave in and out like a rugby fly half to find a way through in the closing stages. Her late rush fell short by under a length and she was clearly the best horse in the race.

It's a shame that Buena Vista had such a rough time as she's one of the best Japanese horses to run outside Japan in quite some time. There are few races that offer enough prize money to attract the top Japanese runners away from the rich pickings in their homeland and what happened to Buena Vista here is hardly likely to encourage them to make more sorties abroad.

If Buena Vista does ever run outside Japan again in something like the Arc or the King George I'll be very interested in her chances.

The result I'd take with the biggest pinch of salt is the Dubai World Cup itself. The runners went slow in this race which caused the field to be incredibly packed and crowded rounding the home turn. Everything was basically locked in position when the front running Gloria De Campeo began the flat out sprint for home. A few horses managed to find a run late but none of the more fancied runners did. The one that caught my eye most was GITANO HERNANDO (37) who was surging full of run in the last 75 yards. I'm going to be very interested in his chances of taking big ten furlong races on turf if he stays in Europe.

RED DESIRE THE ONE TO BEAT IN SHEEMA CLASSIC

Over the years we've grown used to the edge that Japanese horses seem to have over a mile and a half plus. The fact that Japanese stud farms have outbid everyone for many of the top longer distance runners in the last three decades has clearly paid off.

One of the best current mile and a half performers in Japan is the brilliant filly RED DESIRE (40) who cut back to ten furlongs to take the third leg of the Maktoum Challenge at Meydan.

Red Desire looked a bit wooly in her coat and appeared to be carrying some condition from what I could see on television. Her trainer confirmed this and it surely explains why she was running over a shorter trip than in her last outing when she came within a length and a half of becoming the first three year old filly to win the Japan Cup.

Understandably Red Desire took a while to get going over the distance. In fact she was so far back turning in victory looked near impossible. But she fairly flew home when switched to the outside, sustaining a remarkable sprint for the last half mile.

Comparing the videos and pictures I found of her from last year with her physical appearance at Meydan suggests that Red Desire has strengthened up and grown considerably since 2009. She looks sure to improve for the run and the longer distance of the Sheema Classic where she is surely the one they'll all have to beat. With compatriot Vodka retired after a disappointing effort due to a burst blood vessel in the same race Red Desire now has a real shot of taking over the mantle of being the top female turf performer on the planet. She's clearly very effective on synthetic surfaces, as she showed here. But there aren't any big international races for her beyond ten furlongs on anything but turf.

Runner up GLORIA DE CAMPEO (40) is a useful international campaigner that seems to produce his best whether the surface is turf, dirt or synthetic and regardless of the distance. He clearly has a very decent chance in the Dubai World Cup, so I'm surprised the bookies have him marked up as big as 25-1 for that race. That price looks an each-way steal at this stage.

The former Mauritian Champion MR BROCK (39) finished a close third. He'd been forced wide from draw twelve when fourth in round two of the Maktoum Challenge but won his other two Meydan starts in very good style.

Mr Brock did nothing but improve in Mauritius, winning his last three starts impressively. His last win there was a nine length romp in the Group 1 Maiden Cup, the biggest race in Mauritius. In that race, an 11.5f contest, he showed an amazing burst of finishing speed, clocking a faster time for the last three furlongs than the horse most rated the second best on the island achieved over a three furlong shorter trip on the same card. And he actually broke the twelve furlong course record while he was pulling up according to one poster on a Malagasy racing chat site.

Mr Brock did not do well in France but has returned to form since re-joining Mike de Kock. He's probably not going to be quite good enough to win the Dubai World Cup but might well place at big odds.

Ex French runner ALLYBAR (39) used his terrific turn of foot to beat Presvis and Crowded House on his previous two starts at Meydan but couldn't quite get to the first three here. I've had him tagged as a Group 2 rather than a Group 2 horse for a while and this run seemed to confirm that assessment.

Arc third CAVALRYMAN (38) was being groomed to be Godolphin's big gun for the World Cup before this run. But it looked like he lacked the pace to be effective in the sprint finish on this cut back to ten furlongs. Perhaps he'll improve for the run as trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has suggested. More likely he needs to go back up to a mile and a half.

PRESVIS BRILLIANT BACK ON TURF

It now seems rather clear that synthetic surfaces don't agree with PRESVIS (30) after he bounced back to form on turf at Meydan following a very much sub par second on Tapeta. In fact his smart win in the Group 2 Jebel Hatta over the Dubai Duty Free trip suggests he's right back to his best and the one they'll all have to beat in the big race.

Previously I had been concerned that the short homestraight at Meydan (two and a quarter furlongs) wouldn't be long enough for Presvis to unwind his trademark 'out of the clouds' late finish. But even off a slow early pace which produced a sprint finish he was able to come powering through from far back to catch the smart Alexandros and breeze by that fast finisher as if he was standing still.

Presvis undoubtedly has a bigger finishing kick than any racehorse I'm aware of in at least the last decade. He can gain a seemingly impossible amount of ground while running the last half mile faster than you'd think the laws of physics would allow a racehorse to go. I will be extremely interested to see just how fast he ran the final half mile in the Jebel Hatta when www.emiratesracing.com get around to posting the sectional times on their website. When I clocked his final half mile off the computer animation they provide in their race video it came out as 41 seconds. I would have thought that was simply not possible. But this is Presvis, so you never know.

It's worth noting that Ryan Moore rode Presvis really boldly here, taking the innermost path from his number one draw and using his mounts incredible acceleration to take a series of narrow gaps. This is clearly the best way to ride him.

In the three big races he has lost Presvis was drawn nine of ten in the Hong Kong Cup, twelve out of twelve in the Singapore Airlines Cup and sixteen out of sixteen in last year's Dubai Duty Free. For an ultra late runner like him wide draws such as these must have compromised his chances. This being so I'd hold off betting Presvis in this year's Dubai Duty Free until the draw has been made. If he has one of the two or three widest draws he's probably in trouble, but if he's drawn around eight or lower he's likely to prove almost unstoppable.

Runner up ALEXANDROS (29) will be re-opposing in the Dubai Duty Free and he looked set to win handsomely when cruising into the lead only to be outpaced by the flying winner. You might think he has a shot of turning the form around if Presvis gets a wide draw in the big race but his record says otherwise.

Alexandros, like many horses, appears to be best fresh, that is on his first two starts of the season or with a six week plus break thereafter. He's won six times out of ten in these circumstances. In his four losses when fresh Alexandros has finished a half length second, second to G1 horse third Dub Duty Free and second here to Presvis. He's won just one time out of ten in a minor Conditions race when he hasn't been fresh.

With only a three week gap from this run to the Dubai Duty Free I'd bet on Alexandros running below his best in the big race. However he is a smart horse, as he showed here and when beating Crowded House on his previous outing. So if he's rested after the Dubai Duty Free and brought back for the Lockinge I'd bet on him improving on his close second in that weak Group 1 this time.

Third placed TAM LIN (28) has any amount of ability but lacks the acceleration needed for the short distances he's been kept to in recent years. He's also too big and bulky to be effective around tight courses. He needs big eleven furlong plus ovals like Meydan's turf course and Belmont's Widener turf course where he's scored his last three wins. Toss out one race at Sandown where he went off way too fast and his form figures on such tracks read 11123121221343.

This run showed that although he's now seven years old Tam Lin still retains all his ability. If he were mine I'd be shipping him back to America, stepping him up to middle distances and aiming him at the Breeders' Cup Turf which this year is due to be run around the Widener Turf course at Belmont. He's already Breeders Cup nominated so there wouldn't be a huge supplementary entry fee to pay. We know he'd stay the trip too because he's already won over the very stiff eleven furlongs at Hamilton. He's so smart I can see him pulling it off. If he's kept to shorter trips like this he's always going to be a sitting duck for horses with a superior turn of foot, as was the case here.

Further back in the field I really liked the way LAHALEEB (27) was beginning to pick up in the final furlong after being flat to the boards when the sprint for home began.

Following her win on firm ground over ten furlongs in Canada's Grade 1 E P Taylor it now looks clear that the only reason Lahaleeb seemed to need yielding or softer ground before was that she was running over inadequate distances. This performance confirmed that.

Even if there's a scorching early pace in the Dubai Duty Free I doubt that Lahaleeb has the ability or the pace over nine furlongs to beat world class male rivals. But back over ten furlongs in Europe she has several big opportunities against her own sex.

STRONGER PACE WILL SUIT ENAK IN UAE DERBY

The big trial for the UAE Derby, the Listed Al Bastakiya, was run at a farcically slow early pace. So it's hardly surprising that the first three past the post filled those positions throughout. The flat out sprint finish made it virtually impossible for those coming from behind to gain any significant ground.

MENDIP (22) was certainly impressive winning the race. But it should be borne in mind that he's a muscular, really pacey sort who was hugely advantaged by the way the race was run. He was able to use his terrific turn of foot to telling effect over a distance where stamina would normally be a much greater factor.

In this regard it was very interesting to watch the performance of third placed ENAK (17).

He's a rather tall, long striding sort that looks built for stamina rather than speed. So he did really well to keep on strongly and hold third.

What was interesting was the way Enak got going so strongly just after the runners had crossed the line. The winner, Mendip, was six and a half lengths in front of Enak as they passed the winning post. He was by no means heavily eased either, but seventy five yards past the line Enak had caught and passed him.

Enak clocked an amazingly fast time when winning the Gran Criterium at San Isidro in Argentina last year. He ran 1.4 secs quicker than the fillies equivalent race on the same card and 1.03 seconds faster than older males in a conditions race. In fact his time was only a second off the brilliant Candy Ride's course and world record. I can't make accurate speed ratings for Argentina but that run just has to be worth a rating of at least 38 on my scale, more likely 39 or even 40 - which is proper Group 1 class for a two year old.

In the Gran Criterium Enak sat close behind a very strong pace and sustained it to power clear, demonstrating just how well he stays.

On his first start outside Argentina Enak was outpaced in a fast run 7f race behind Mendip. He had been working well since that run apparently and certainly ran a much improved race over two and a half furlongs longer here.

There's no question that Mendip and Musir will be tough opponents in the UAE Derby. But big prizes like that tend to excite jockeys into going a strong early pace. So there has to be a real chance Enak will be passing everything before the line rather than after it as he did here. He certainly looks an attractive proposition at the likely huge odds.

DESERT PARTY HAS A REAL SHOT IN GOLDEN SHAHEEN

Seeing the way he's been winning at the Dubai Carnival it's clear Leahurst has a favourite's chance of winning the Dubai Golden Shaheen on World Cup night. However Godolphin are clearly not going to lay down and roll over for their biggest local sprint. They already have the smart Gayego as a contender and bolstered their team when DESERT PARTY (41) won a good Group 3 at Meydan over the course and distance of the big race.

Desert Party raced mid pack till moving up to take the lead entering the straight. He was quickly tackled by Mutheeb but only had to be pushed out vigorously with hands and heels to hold his rival by over a length as the pair quickly opened up a gap on the rest of the field.

At last year's Dubai Carnival Desert Party had performed brilliantly on dirt, winning the UAE Guineas and running second in the UAE Derby. But he has the slightly taller physique and longer stride of a turf runner and had already won a four and a half furlong Polytrack sprint on his racecourse debut. So he looked very likely to act on the Tapeta surface which resembles Polytrack and suits most turf runners.

The only real question was whether Desert Party was going to be as good as he was before getting injured in the Kentucky Derby where he broke a chip off a bone which needed to be removed. Clearly he is as good as ever. Indeed he's filled out and grown into a muscular, handsome, classically good looking racehorse.

This run showed that Desert Party is very effective at shorter trips. In fact his only loss in five sprint starts was when he was hampered.

Second placed MUTHEEB (40) had run a terrific time two starts back at Meydan over seven furlongs. In fact he clocked a faster time for the first six furlongs that day than the smart Global City managed in a six furlong race later on the same card. He won by five lengths despite tiring in the final furlong (which he took 13 seconds to run - that's really slow for this track). This plus the fact he pulled hard on his subsequent outing suggested that the cut back to six furlongs was a very good idea.

When Mutheeb first came out of the pack to make a run at Desert Party it looked like he was going to go on by his rival. But Desert Party rallied and held him safe (he was actually edging away again in the last fifty yards).

No doubt Mutheeb will be back for the Golden Shaheen, and it's possible that a more fiercely contested early pace will make his late run a winning one there. But I have to say the way Desert Party held him here seemed like a demonstration of the difference between a Group 1 and a Group 2 horse.

That said, Mutheeb is lightly raced for a five year old and will be an interesting contender on World Cup night. If he were mine I'd be inclined to ship him to California rather than Britain afterwards as he'd probably have a better chance of winning big races around a turn on synthetic surfaces there than up the straight on turf in Europe.

Further back in the field WAR ARTIST (38) was a disappointing favourite.

War Artist is a world class sprinter. He put up a huge run on the clock on his previous start at Meydan to beat Gayego over the same course and distance, Gayego being one of the top sprinters on the planet on this sort of surface.

The trouble is War Artist is highly sensitive to traffic problems. The full field of twelve here seems to be his absolute maximum. He did win a thirteen runner Group 1 in South Africa where one rival was knocked out of the race at the start and finished tailed off. He's lost the other seven times he's run in fields bigger than twelve. But before this loss he'd won all six times he'd run 5-6f on a fast surface in fields of 12 or less. Here, being crowed a couple of furlongs after the start was enough to put him off his game.

The Golden Shaheen figures to be more competitive than this race, so it's going to be hard to steer War Artist away from traffic problems around the relatively tight turns of Meydan's Tapeta course. For this reason I'll be inclined to oppose him there even though he'll be as fast as any horse in the line up.

CAT JUNIOR LOOKS A BIG PLAYER IN GODOLPHIN MILE

Blinkers cut off a horse's sideways vision. This spooks them into running faster in the early stages the first time they're applied by making them worried about what they can hear but can't see. They run away from the sound of their rivals. The effect diminishes as horses figure out that it's other horses not a predator chasing them when they continue to wear blinkers in subsequent races. But horses wearing blinkers for the first time front run three times as often as they did in their previous starts.

This being so you have to wonder about the expertise of the Stewards at Meydan who asked jockey Richard Hills to explain the switch to front running tactics on CAT JUNIOR (40) who made all the running to win the big prep for the Godolphin Mile in first time blinkers.

Racecourse commentators around the world frequently refer to horses getting lit up by first time blinkers and showing more early speed. The whole point of fitting them is to get a horse to do exactly that, so how else did the Meydan stewards expect Hills to ride Cat Junior?

In any event Cat Junior ran fast enough to rate as a big player in the big race on World Cup night.

Normally I'd be happy to oppose a horse with Cat Junior's level of ability in a race as valuable as the Godolphin Mile. But the race has the talent sucked out of it by being run on the same night as several more valuable events which cater for the same horses. For this reason it's always been a weak Group 2 contest effectively despite its massive prize.

If Cat Junior can show the same level of form in the Godolphin Mile he's going to go close.

Further back in the field FORGOTTEN VOICE (36) ran below the form he'd showed on his first start of the year.

It's worth bearing in mind that Forgotten Voice has had all sorts of training problems in his career. This may well mean he's at his best off a break.

Forgotten Voice's form figures on his first two starts off a long break or with a six week plus break thereafter read 111132. The third place was on very fast ground where he went close. The second was that terrific half length second in a red hot first round of the Al Maktoum Challenge here last time. He finished really strong behind the top international performer Gloria De Campeo there.

DON'T IGNORE PAN RIVER IN SHEEMA CLASSIC

I think 'horse whisperer' Monty Roberts is right to say that a lot of the behaviour we see in racehorses is driven by their instinctive fear of predators. For example I reckon that when a horse gets tired late in a race it feels vulnerable, so its instincts tell it to return to the safety of the herd to avoid being picked off by a predator. This is why horses tend to ease themselves up in front during the closing stages of a race.

Some horses exhibit this trait more than others, and CAMPANOLOGIST (40) certainly falls towards the extreme end of the scale. He just seems to bob up and down and not respond in the closing stages of many races, which explains why he'd won just one of his last ten outings before taking the big prep for the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan on Super Thursday.

The turf course at Meydan features a homestraight of only two and a quarter furlongs, and this suits Campanologist perfectly. He seems to run his very best races on tracks with homestraights shorter than three furlongs because they give him less time to think about easing himself up. He's now won three from five on such tracks and run second in fast time in his two losses to smart rivals.

Campanologist certainly looked good as he ran down the front running Golden Sword then held off the late charge of the Turkish runner Pan River. The run suggests he has a decent shot in the Sheema Classic over the same course. Afterwards he's going to need careful placing. The only two European tracks outside Germany which feature homestraights shorter than three furlongs are Ascot and Leopardstown.

If he were mine I'd be focusing on big German races with Campanologist this year and maybe add in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, the King George or the Irish Champion Stakes. Other big races he could target will feature homestraights long enough to tempt him into downing tools.

PAN RIVER (40) came with a rare old rattle in the closing stages and only just failed to get up. He must be the most consistent top class turf performer on the planet. He lost a six furlong sprint on his racecourse debut. But since then he's reached the first three all twenty two times he's raced on turf, including in many of Turkey's top races.

His previous win at the course and this run demonstrated once more that the best Turkish horses are competitive in top international races. So Pan River must have a great shot of maintaining his amazing run of top three finishes in the Sheema Classic. Indeed his greater reliability plus the fact he pulled too hard for his own good here makes him a more attractive proposition than the winner in the big race.

I imagine third placed GOLDEN SWORD (40) will be fancied to reverse this form in the Sheema Classic as trainer Mike de Kock says he needed the run. despite having had an earlier outing at the Dubai Carnival. My concern is that Golden Sword's lack of acceleration makes him a sitting duck for a horse with a turn of foot on the fast surface and in the sprint finishes which tend to occur at Meydan.

Sixth placed CLAREMONT (39) picked up really well late. He's a classy good looking horse with smart French form. But, like Golden Sword, he's shown before that he tends to get caught flat footed in sprint finishes. He's just a bit too tall and gangly to respond rapidly to a change in pace. If they go a searching gallop in the Sheema Classic that might pull him into it. But my suspicion is he's a future Cup horse for two miles plus. I certainly wouldn't mind having a few pennies on him at huge odds for the Ascot Gold Cup ante-post as that is a race Godolphin do tend to target with horses like Claremont.

Another interesting Godolphin horse for the future is ANMAR (39) who finished well to be a close fifth after meeting traffic problems. He'd won the three previous times he'd encountered a fast surface, including a most impressive win on his last outing. It's perfectly possible that he'll prove to be a Group 1 horse.