|
|
         
|
POSTED ON OCTOBER 6, 2008 CLOCK SAYS OVERDOSE WAS ROBBED I have no doubt that the Hungarian star OVERDOSE (44) would have won this year's Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp if Fleeting Spirit's stall had opened and a false start had not been declared. What makes me so confident of this are the Youtube videos of his win in the voided race and that of MARCHAND D'OR (43) in the re-run version later in the day. Clock both videos accurately with a stopwatch and you'll find that Overdose ran between five and nine hundredths of a second slower (it's impossible to be any more precise). What makes this amazing is that Overdose had no company for the last furlong and a half and was eased in the closing stages by his jockey. His jockey had no need to use any of his mount's energy that he'd clearly saved to see off a late challenge. Marchand D'Or on the other hand was in a full out drive all the way to the line. And he was racing on ground that may well have dried out at least a little in the intervening three and a half hours following the overnight rain. If a false start hadn't been declared Moorehouse Lad would surely have pushed Overdose all the way and Marchand D'Or would have been there to challenge him in the closing stages. He would have had something to race against all the way to the line. Do all these factors add up to more than the five to nine hundredths of a second difference between the times clocked by Overdose and Marchand D'Or? If you have any doubt take a look at the performance of STRIKE UP THE BAND (39) in both races. He ran second to Overdose in the voided race, beaten three and a quarter lengths. He was fourth in the re-run version, only three lengths behind Marchand D'Or despite his earlier exertions. In fact all the horses that completed the course in both races were beaten further by Overdose than they were by Marchand D'Or. And remember, Marchand D'Or was pulled up in the voided race after little more than a furlong. As a result he was fresher than any of his rivals for the re-run. The tragedy is that Hungarian racing is under attack from its own government who are closing down the tracks and selling them off for building development. A win by Overdose would have helped stop them by giving Hungary the international sports star it so sorely lacks right now. Overdose should have stretched his unbeaten record to eleven and vied with Zarkava for the headlines. Instead he'll be remembered as part of a farce rivaled only by the 1993 'National that never was' won by Esha Ness. The sole consolation is that Overdose is still only three years of age. Hopefully he will stay in training next year, avoid the injuries and ailments that afflict thoroughbreds, not be affected by the physical changes he'll undergo as a result of maturing and strengthening up and come back to prove how good he is. Overdose is one of the fastest sprinters we've seen since Dayjur. But for this farce he would have been a slam dunk to be voted Champion Sprinter of 2008. Let's hope he doesn't end up instead as a somewhat humorous historical footnote. One thing the race did answer is that Overdose can cut back to five furlongs and show the same amazing early pace he has at longer trips. Overdose is clearly built and bred to be a miler and has already won over seven furlongs. There has to be a concern that he'll start to need longer trips as he matures. This could well be a big problem as he's never been that great at negotiating a turn. He always loses a little ground. It's not been a problem so far, but in Group 1 company it surely would be. My hope is that Overdoes will stay sound and retain his ability. If he does then there's every chance he'll reclaim the part in racing history that was so unjustly snatched from him at Longchamp last Sunday. In the re-run race Marchand D'Or certainly ran a great race, closing from far back with his usual great burst to come within a tenth of a second of Habibti's track record. No question he is one of the best sprinters in recent years. I just hope he stays in training next year as a re-match between him and Overdose would be something I'd love to see. Mean while Marchand D'Or must have a serious shot in the Hong Kong Sprint. MOOREHOUSE LAD (41) showed terrific pace before getting run down by Marchand D'Or. My read of his form is that he needs a recent run (four weeks) and is best over an easy five furlongs on fast ground. Since his two year old days if two photos had gone the other way Moorehouse Lad would have won six of his eight starts on what race times indicate was good to firm or faster ground over five furlongs on tracks that rise less than ten feet when he's had a run within four weeks.
WATAR IS A SERIOUSLY GOOD STAYER WATAR (41) is a great big long striding colt that lengthens rather than quickens. And he clearly benefited from the scorching early pace set by CENTENNIAL (38) and Hindu Kush (37) in the Prix Chaudenay. He sat in last place until asked to improve entering the straight. The response was immediate. He swept through imperiously on the outside, gaining ground rapidly before surging clear to win full of running from the smart filly SHEMIMA (39). One point of concern is that Watar raced with his head to one side and shifted his ground slightly in the closing stages. Clearly he was feeling the ground. He's a big horse that hits the ground hard. He got away with it on good ground this time. But I'd prefer him with a bit more cut in future and would oppose him with some confidence on good to firm or faster going. Clearly Watar is a high class stayer. He's capable of taking a Group 1 on this showing and will get his chance in the Prix Royal Oak next time. Shemima was held up too, in second last place, and made her run at the same time as the winner. She couldn't contain him but still ran another big race. If there were Group 1 staying races for fillies she would be capable of winning one. She could still win at the top level if she got soft ground and a searching pace to run at over a mile and a half. Centennial's best form previously had been with an uncontested lead. But he ran right up to his best here despite being made to run flat out by Hindu Kush right from the start. It looks likely that he's actually better over longer distances like this. I can see him winning a minor Cup race if he's kept in training next term.
PACO BOY TOUGH TO BEAT IN SMALL FIELDS PACO BOY (41) got a bit squeezed for room when third in the eleven runner Prix du Moulin according to trainer Richard Hannon. And he had a troubled passage in the nineteen runner French Guineas. He's only a medium sized colt and seems to come off worst in the traffic problems which big fields generate. But he's some machine in fields of ten or less. He showed this when winning for the seventh time in seven tries fields that small when taking the Group 1 Prix de la Foret with a sharp burst of acceleration down the outside. Paco Boy is clearly a tough horse to beat in small fields on fast ground at a mile or less. I've been banging on all season about what a bad idea it was to cut runner up NATAGORA (38) back to a mile. She stayed the extended ten furlongs well in the French Derby and has never looked a natural at shorter trips to me despite her Guineas win. She lacks the acceleration needed to win the best races over short trips, and that was once more evident here. She took the lead pretty impressively halfway up the straight but was left for dead by the winner's late burst. US RANGER (35) produced a late run to take third and has run much faster in the past. I'm now strongly inclined to believe that he carries his head high simply because he doesn't like having to run too hard. He's great at beating up on lesser opposition. But when he tackles Group races he always finds a way to get beat. To date he's won five out of five below Group class but lost all ten Group races he's contested.
PLUMANIA THE BEST PROSPECT FROM MARCEL BOUSSAC Over the years the Prix Marcel Boussac has produced more Group 1 winners than any other two year old race in Europe. This year's renewal was filled with a whole bunch of obvious middle distance prospects. And the scorching early pace had them all in trouble within a couple of furlongs. The first two PROPROTIONAL (38) and Elusive Wave (35) were basically the only decent out and out milers in the field. They had the pace to stick close to the early gallop and get first run on their more stoutly bred rivals. Proportional kicked away to win by three lengths in the second fastest time ever clocked in the race. But I'm not yet convinced she's going to win more Group 1's. She's a rather awkwardly shaped filly that had the run of the race here. She's big, muscular and mature. So I'm not at all sure she'll improve at all from two to three. Fior me the two to take out of the race are Andre Fabre's pair COPPERBEECH (35) and PLUMANIA (35) who came from far back to take third and fourth. They were both gaining ground rapidly in the final furlong, and Plumania was finishing fastest of all. Copperbeech is a well balanced, medium sized filly that has a terrific turn of foot. She came from second last spot in a huge field to mow down her rivals first time out. Next time out she was in a three runner Conditions race that was run at a crawl in the early stages. She picked up terrifically well in the sprint to the line, running the last 300 metres in just 16.3 seconds, that's 10.9 seconds per furlong. Here Copperbbech again picked up strongly. But she's clearly a middle-distance prospect and couldn't make up the ground. Next year she's going to be winning good races over then furlongs plus though. Plumania is a strong, mature, compact, rather muscular filly that's build and bred for middle distances. Her debut run behind Ana Americana highlights the difference between French stewards and those elsewhere as she was clearly given an incredibly easy time of things. After disputing second place, her jockey never picked up his whip at all and barely rode her with hands and heels in the closing stages as she cruised along in fourth spot. In Britain or Ireland the jockey would have been hauled up before the stewards and faced severe sanctions. But in France it's permissible to give a horse an easy race first time out or on its seasonal debut. Next time out in a similar race, Plumania was dropped out to last. This time she was wasked for an effort in the closing stages and mowed her rivals down impressively to win with a fair bit in hand. This run confirmed that Plumania is Group class. If there was ante-post betting on the Prix de Diane I'd be tempted to have a few pennies on her. But Fabre's record in this race is poor and I think he's going to have another loser here that improves over longer at three. Still, she's undeniably useful and worth watching here for future reference. ROSE DIAMOND (30) was the other horse to finish really strongly. It looks like she takes more after her middle distance sire than her sprinting dam from this run. AGAIN (14) was soon flat to the boards and clearly needs a longer trip on ground this fast. I still see her as a likely Group 1 winner next year, with the Irish Oaks being the obvious target.
ZARKAVA NOT NECESSARILY THAT GOOD I know that ZARKAVA (39) looked really impressive in the Arc. But I want to see her do more before I jump on the bandwagon and call her one of the best fillies of all time. First of all Zarkava clocked an unusually slow time. This was not her fault. The jockeys on the other horses refused to chase the lone Coolmore pacemaker Red Rock Canyon. As a result the early pace was too slow to produce a fast final time. However when I add the fast time to the worrying presence of It's Gino (37) just two and a half lengths back in third I simply cannot call this a great performance. There's no way It's Gino is a Group 1 horse. I'd like to believe in Zarkava, and I have to say she ran awfully well last time, earning one of the best speed ratings I've given a three year old filly beyond a sprint trip in years. But she has yet to hit the kind of stratospheric speed ratings I've given to horses like Rakti, Falbrav, Galileo and Fantastic Light. Maybe she will if she's kept in training. But I have to say that if she were mine I'd be bundling her off to stud right now rather than risk damaging her reputation with a four year old campaign. It looks like the lightning fast ground and slow early pace found out SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (37), VISION D'ETAT (36), ASK (36), MIESHO SAMSON (35), KAMSIN (34), SCHIAPARELLI (31) and ZAMBEZI SUN (22). Then again I'm beginning to have my doubts about Soldier Of Fortune. He keeps on hitting the same kind of good but not great speed rating in the 37-40 range. True Group 1 horses earn ratings of 42 or more from me. I think he could do so, but probably only on soft ground. On softer ground Ask looks like being a big player in the Gran Premio del Jockey Club. Off the stronger pace that Japanese races are run at Mesiho Samson will clearly be a big player in the Arima Kennen, Tenno Sho and Japan Cup. As I suspected, DUKE OF MARMALADE (36) now looks to be past his sell by date for the season. I do hope he's not wheeled out again for the Breeders' Cup, Japan Cup or Hong Kong Cup like Dylan Thomas was last year. Dylan Thomas was clearly over the top at the end of the season like Duke Of Marmalade looks to be now. It was sad to see him end his great career with those two unplaced efforts. And it would be even sadder to see Duke Of Marmalade go the same way.
NAAQOOS A JOCKEY CLUB NOT A GUINEAS PROSPECT Secretariat had a stride that was 32 feet long. The average horse has a stride of about 22 feet. I wish I could know how big the stride of NAAQOOS (37) is. It's certainly huge, and he used it to good effect to make all the running in the Lean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp. Like his trainer, I think a lot of Naaqoos, even though he won the big race narrowly from what wasn't a great field. The thing to bear in mind is that the distance was 40 yards shy of seven furlongs on a course that 's partly downhill. That cannot have suited Naaqoos who is a big, strong, mature, good-bodied colt with a huge, bounding stride that's built and bred for at least a mile and a quarter. I don't understand why so many people are touting Naaqoos as a Guineas prospect. No horse with a stride as long as his is ever going to be anything other than a middle distance runner. That's why he got so far behind in the Prix Morny. True he picked up nicely to pass ten horses in the last couple of furlongs there and take fifth place. But a true Guineas horse would have had the pace to stick closer to the gallop and win or place. As I see it Naaqoos is a Prix du Jockey Club not a Guineas prospect. I'd bet on that becoming evident next year.
|
|
|