GOLDWAKI RUNS A TERRIFIC ARC TRIAL
Until I saw his run in the Grand Prix de Deauville I'd
dismissed GOLDWAKI (38) as a horse with freakishly strong stamina that needed
soft ground or a searching pace to be effective at a mile and a half. Now I
realise he also has serious class.
The race was not run to suit Goldwaki at all. British
raider Monitor Closely set a slow pace and the event turned into a flat out
sprint finish up the homestraight.
Goldwaki turned into the straight stone last of the ten
runners and had to be manouvered a few times to find a passage as the field
compressed and started to sprint for home. I expected to see his run flatten out
but instead he weaved his way through and closed in on the leaders with
tremendous energy, just missing fourth place and finishing full of run. If
they'd gone any sort of pace in the early stages or the ground had been a bit
softer I'm sure he'd have won.
I still think Goldwaki would have a terrific chance if he
were supplemented for the St Leger because he has such tremendous stamina. But
I'm now taking his chances for the Arc very seriously indeed. They're bound to
go a whole lot faster in the early stages at Longchamp - especially if Coolmore
throw in a couple of pacemakers for Fame And Glory. And if the ground turned up
soft on the big day I'd be scared of not having something on him.
The winner MARINOUS (39) started at 22-1, but looking at
his form it does seem he's pretty darned useful. He was a close second to the
smart Cirrus Des Aigles last year and would have won the last four times he's
run on turf if one close finish had gone his way. He has a smart turn of foot
and used it to take the lead and then hold off the strong finishing British
raider Redwood.
Trainer Freddie head says Marinous is a nervous sort. This
probably explains why three of his four wins have come on one of his first two
starts following a break.
It's tough to tell exactly how good Marinous is due to the
way this race was run. Most likely he can run a bit faster. He looks an
interesting contender for the Dubai Sheema Classic when he ships back to Dubai
for the Carnival in the Spring.
REDWOOD (39) has run a fair bit faster in the past and no
doubt would have gone quicker here if the early pace had allowed. He's a Group 1
horse according to my speed ratings and looks to have a big shot of taking the
Canadian International.
SWISS DIVA THE ONE TO BEAT IN ABBAYE IF GROUND IS SLOW
ENOUGH
It's almost unheard of for a Group 1 class time to be
clocked in a French sprint other than the Abbaye. This is because sprints for
horses older than two are rarely run novelty events in France and French
breeders aim to produce horses for longer distances.
Nonetheless SWISS DIVA (42) managed to run fast enough to
win pretty much any six furlong sprint when taking the Prix de Meutry at
Deauville. She looked rather impressive as she burst clear in the last couple of
furlongs to leave her rivals for dead.
Swiss Diva is trained and bred in Britain where the early
pace of sprints is invariably a good deal stronger than it is in France. Trainer
David Elsworth commented on this after the race saying she "proceeded to
canter in front - the others let her go, which they wouldn't have done back in
England." Indeed, though I couldn't take the sectional times due to the
camera angle, it certainly looked like she ran the last three furlongs faster
than the first - something almost unheard of in a British Group race for older
horses over five or six furlongs.
Clearly Swiss Diva likes the French style of racing. She
won a good five furlong Listed race on her only previous start across the
Channel. Equally clearly Elsworth is right to say "Swiss Diva is very
ground -dependent and she must be able to get her toes in." She's won the
last five times she's run on ground that race times suggest was on the slow side
of good or on Polytrack - a surface which provides plenty of cushion.
The plan is apparently to take Swiss Diva back to France
for the Prix du Petit Couvert, the big local prep for the Abbaye, and then the
Abbaye itself. If she gets her ground in those races I wouldn't want to oppose
her.