GREAT DERBY TRIAL BY SEPTIMUS

If you read the reports it looks like Septimus disappointed when running seventh in the Prix La Force at Longchamp. As I see it, he actually ran a great Derby trial.

SEPTIMUS (38) only lost by a length and a half despite having to switch in a race where there wasn't a lot of room in the last few furlongs. Seeing that the Coolmore colts are clearly even more backward than normal this Spring it was a most promising run. My ratings say it would have been more than good enough to win Septimus the Ballysax Stakes if he'd run in that race instead. And if he had won the Ballysax Stakes Septimus would now be favorite for the Derby instead of the almost unbelievable 40-1 offered by Ladbrokes. I think the bookies have got this one totally wrong. Despite almost certainly needing the run, racing over what's probably an inadequate trip and meeting traffic trouble Septimus ran fast enough to win 90% of the Derby Trials we've seen in recent years. He has now moved to the top of my short-list for the Derby.

Make no mistake, the Prix La Force was a red hot race. Normally there are so many Classic trials in the Spring the good horses can avoid each other. But it's not always clear which are the good horses. So, very occasionally, several of them end up facing each other in what turns out to be an incredibly strong Classic trial. This turned out to be the case in this year's Prix La Force, a race that I predict we'll be looking back on with awe at the end of this season. My speed ratings say that rarely have so many top class three year olds met each other in anything but a Classic.

A lot of people are going to be saying the Prix La Force wasn't a strong race because eight of the nine runners were separated by little more than two lengths at the finish. The clock tells a different story though. It suggests that the Prix la Force is likely to prove THE key Classic Trial - a race from which the winners of the French, British and Irish Derbies may well emerge. For this reason I think it will pay to study the race very closely.

The winner was BARASTRAIGHT (39) who has unusual origins. He won class G and F races on his two previous starts on provincial tracks but showed he was a major league player with his win here. Trainer Jean-Claude Rouget told reporters that Barastraight was still a bit of a baby and was on and off the bit during the race. But he added that the horse has great potential and will now be supplemented for the Prix du Jockey Club.

Runner-up ECHOES ROCK (39) had won a red hot maiden over a mile at Longchamp on his previous start and improved a little for the step up to ten furlongs. Looking at his pedigree, I think ten furlongs will prove his optimum distance as his dam has yet to produce a winner beyond this trip. He only got beat a neck by Barastraight but I suspect the winner has a little more scope for improvement, especially over the extra half furlong of the Prix du Jockey Club. Still I see Echoes Rock winning something big this term, and it might just be the Jockey Club.

IRISH WELLS (38) found himself in front early on and so his jockey decided to make the best of the situation. He told reporters that the horse ran a bit green when headed and looked around before finally deciding to get going again in the last 20 yards. Clearly he's a smart performer, though the fact he's only won one of his five starts to date inclines me to believe he won't find the improvement needed to take the Prix du Jockey Club.

GRAVITAS (38) had won all three of his previous starts and came within a length of keeping his unbeaten record. I've long thought that it's a good policy to forgive any horse one loss, and I reckon that may prove wise in this case. This was the first time Gravitas had encountered serious opposition and most horses, even the very best ones, lose in these circumstances.

MOON PROSPECT (38) kept on well to finish close. Indeed he's stayed on nicely in all his three starts to date and, despite his ten furlong pedigree, looks like he'll improve when stepped up to a mile and a half.

ZATONIC (38) didn't get a clear run yet still went close. He's still a maiden after five starts but must be just about the best maiden in Europe as he's now twice gone close in Group company.

STORMY RIVER STILL NOT FAST ENOUGH

When he won the Prix Djebel I suggested that Stormy River (37) wouldn't be fast enough to take the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2,000 Guineas). Even though he's now gone and added the Group 3 Prix de Fontainebleau to his scorecard I'm not going to change my mind. The clock says he ran just that bit slower than will be required to take the big race. The fact that he's now regarded as one of the big players suggests to me that this year's Poulains is ripe for the taking by a foreign raider. The French have got a vintage crop of middle distance three year olds this year, but the milers are beginning to look rather weak.

Disappointment of the race was CARLOTAMIX (31) who only managed sixth. But I wouldn't give up on him yet. The distance of one mile on fast ground was always in danger of being way too short for this scope, long striding colt at three. In fact I'm now wondering whether the 10.5f of the Prix du Jockey Club may also prove too short. It could be we won't see the best of Carlotamix at three until he's stepped up to a mile and a half.

DALTAYA DOES IT

DALTAYA (36) won the Group 3 Prix de la Grotte in only a reasonable time for the class. But the early pace was slow, so it may well be she can run a bit quicker. This was a decent trial for the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (French 1000 Guineas), but I suspect it was an even better one for the Prix de Diane (French Oaks). Daltaya's dam is closely related to Arc winner Dalakhani and her sire, Anabaa, keeps on getting decent middle distance horses despite having been champion sprinter.

FASTMAMBO IS FAST

The few maiden races run on the Paris circuit are very strongly contested. So it was no big surprise to see FASTMAMBO (37) clock a pattern class time to take one run over a mile at Longchamp. He'd been beaten less than a length by Prix du Jockey Club candidate Echoes Rock in his previous start and is entered in the big race himself. In fact all his big race entries are in middle distance contests, so it looks like his connections believe Fastmambo will improve for the step up to ten furlongs. That would make him quite some horse. He certainly looks well worth following.

GENTLEWAVE WINS AN ABOVE AVERAGE NOAILLES

When a group of horses finish close up in a race the most common conclusion is that they can't all be that good and the race is sub-standard. In fact my research shows that the opposite is usually true. The closer the finish the better the horses fighting it out are likely to be. It's only low class horses that quit quickly when challenged and get beat by wide margins.

There was only a length and a half between the first five home in this year's Prix Noailles. But the clock suggests the race was actually above average.

The winner was GENTLEWAVE (38) who stretched his unbeaten record to three by finishing like a bullet from far back - a move that is rapidly becoming his trademark.

It's always hard to say just how good a horse like Gentlewave is because they need to be delivered very late and rarely win by a big margin. But in my experience any horse that can finish as fast as he does is usually a Group 1 performer. He looks a solid candidate for the Prix du Jockey Club.

Gentlewave is trained by Andre Fabre who has so many smart middle distance three year olds this season he could run his own private Prix du Jockey Club and it would probably be just as good as the real thing. He also trains runner-up BREMEN (38) who looked a sure-fire winner till getting caught by Gentlewave's terrific late burst. This was the first time Bremen had lost in three tries beyond a mile. He actually won over ten furlongs at two and may well improve when stepped up to twelve furlongs as he surely will be.

Third-placed GRAND COUTURIER (38) had been unbeaten in three provincial starts and didn't get a clear passage here yet finished very close, staying on well. He's already won over 11.5 furlongs and it looks like he's going to be more at home over that sort of trip than the 10.5 furlongs of this race.

KAVAFI IS BACK

KAVAFI (38) beat the high class pair Desideratum and Laverock on his racecourse debut back in 2004. But he only managed one other start that year and missed all of 2005. He probably needed his comeback run a few weeks ago but bounced back to his best to run a fast time in a Conditions race over a mile at Saint-Cloud.

Kavafi's dam has already produced three smart milers in Keltos, Iridanos and Krataois. It looks like Kavafi is going to keep up the family tradition by winning a decent Group race over the distance.

DOUBLE EAGLE AND MOON MIX ARE FUTURE STARS

Back in 1999 there was a minor mile and a half French conditions race for three year olds in April that was run in freakishly fast time. The horses that fought out the finish were subsequent Arc winner Sagamix and future dual Derby winner Dream Well. Seven years later we seem to have had a repeat for a three year old maiden just run at Saint-Cloud has just earned a simply enormous rating from me, the biggest I've given a European race for three year olds so far this term. The winner was DOUBLE EAGLE (39) and the runner-up was the Fabre-trained debutante MOON MIX (38). Both are entered up in stacks of future big races and look terrific prospects.

Double Eagle is a half brother to Group 1 winner Night Style and is entered up in the Grand Prix de Paris and the Prix du Jockey Club. He's also in the Prix Greffulhe and Hocquart and would be a prime candidate for either of those two Classic trials.

Moon Mix is a full brother to the Arc runner up and Group 1 winner Cherry Mix. He's in all the same races as Double Eagle and looks an equally good prospect.

MANDURO BREAKS LONGCHAMP COURSE RECORD

Andre Fabre did rather well with Shirocco last year. Now it looks like he's set to do at least as well with another former German star sent to him by Baron von Ullman. This time the horse in question is MANDURO (42) who earned the biggest speed rating I've awarded any horse so far this season when breaking Longchamp's ten furlong course record in the Group 2 Prix Harcourt. The record was formerly held by the very smart Ana Marie, who you may recall came so close to beating Russian Rhythm in the Nassau Stakes. Manduro beat her time by three tenths of a second and earned a solid Group 1 rating in doing so.

Manduro is understandably held in high regard by his connections. He has only been beaten once in six outing to date and that was the only time he raced on soft ground. His next race will be the Prix Ganay and on this run I wouldn't care to oppose him unless there's a downpour and the going is too soft for him.

Manduro is already entered in the Irish Champion Stakes. No doubt he's also going to be put into all the other big ten furlong races as well. Remember his name. You're going to be hearing a whole lot more of him this year.

Runner-up CORRE CAMINOS (42) beat the smart Ruwi last year and showed that run was no fluke here. He's only made it to the races six times so far and does appear to be best when fresh. He's won or run a big race every time he's come into a race off a break but run below form every time he hasn't. I dare say he'll run below form again if he's kept on the go. But watch for him to bounce back in the Autumn when he comes back off the Summer break that all good French horses get.

Manduro's stablemate ARCHANGE D'OR (41) had won all four times he'd previously run ten furlongs. And he confirmed this is his right trip by running a huge race to take third. He's already won a Group 2 at the distance and is certainly well capable of taking another. Indeed he'd only have to improve marginally to win a Group 1.

Slightly further back in the star-studded field, one horse that catches my eye is ENFORCER (39) who equaled the big speed rating I gave him for beating the smart Mullins Bay in a Group 3 last Autumn. I suspect this big run will slip under the radar for many analysts and that we'll get a decent price about Enforcer when he drops back down to Group 3 class in Britain. He'd be a good thing to win at that level according to my ratings and would have a real shot in a Group 2.

BAZART IS VERY SMART

BAZART (39) placed in Listed company from a handful of starts at three. But he's clearly a whole lot better this season. He clocked a seriously good Group class time to beat the useful Doctor Dino in a hot conditions race at Longchamp. Doctor Dino twice ran second in Group 3 company last year and was beaten only three lengths in the Prix du Jockey Club.

This race was eight and a half furlongs, and it could very well be that Bazart is best over this sort of trip. He faded in the closing stages when fourth over ten furlongs last year but has now won both his starts at shorter trips since running second on his debut.

My speed ratings say that Bazart is capable of winning in Group 2 or 3 company, and I'd bet on him doing just that soon.

FRENCH CLASSIC TRIALS WERE SLOW

The Prix Djebel and Prix Imprudence often produce live candidates for the Poule D'Essai des Pouulins and Pouliches. But the clock says that this year's winners Mauralakana (33) and Stormy River (32) are going to have to run a whole lot faster to have realistic chances in the first two French classics.

Actually both Mauralakana and Stormy River did run a bit faster at two than they did here. However, I'm not jumping up and down about their chances in the big races at this stage.

MINOR RACE THROWS UP HAIRBALL

HAIRBALL (37) was a decent performer on the flat at two and three but has been showing somewhat better form over hurdles in recent months. Switched back to the flat he continued the improvement to take a decent little conditions race at Le Croise-Laroche in Listed class time.

It may well be that Hairball is best on soft ground. But there's plenty of that around right now. So I'd bet on him following up this win if he's kept below Group company.

ERIVIEVE A NAME TO REMEMBER

ERIVIEVE (37) won for the third time in a row when bolting up by five lengths in a good Tierce Handicap at Longchamp. Clearly he's improved significantly from three to four. But I doubt we'll see the best of him till he switches to hurdles. He's a half brother to two hurdle winners including a Grade 1 winner over three miles. No doubt he'll be snapped up by one of the big British jumping yards sooner rather than later. So I'd make a note of his name as a horse worth following in novice hurdles this coming Autumn.

SCARMIX IS A USEFUL THREE YEAR OLD

You get some useful horses running in French claiming races. One of them is undoubtedly the three year old SCARMIX (36) who won a provincial claimer on his second start before running away with a Longchamp handicap by eight lengths in the mud.

How good Scarmix is I can't really say at this stage. Certainly he's good enough to follow up this win if kept below pattern class. In fact he's probably good enough to take at least a Listed race. He looks the sort to make a good juvenile hurdler as he's a half brother to Scarlet Mix who I rated pattern class over timber.

LORD DU SUD ONE OF THE TOP STAYERS

LORD DU SUD (39) won an unusually hot renewal of the Listed Prix Right Royal at Saint-Cloud. On his only previous start in a staying race he'd finished two lengths second to Reefscape in the Prix Chaudenay which I rated the fastest race beyond a mile and a half run in the last five years. He earned a speed rating of 42 from me that day but didn't have to run quite that fast to take this lesser contest.

Reefscape finished a moderate fourth behind Lord Du Sud here, but he hates heavy ground while Lord Du Sud thrives on it. No doubt Reefscape will be aiming for more Group 1 wins in the big staying races to come. But this race showed he's not the only top class stayer in France. Lord Du Sud is bang there with him and must have every chance of winning for the fifth time in a row next time out.