FRANCE APRIL 08

DUKE OF MARMALADE TOASTS GANAY RIVALS

I spent a good deal of last season whittering on about the merits of DUKE OF MARMALADE (42). So it was good to see him finally win a Group 1 race in the Prix Ganay. Clearly he is a proper international class middle-distance horse.

The thing to bear in mind is that this race was run over ten and a half furlongs and featured a searching early pace set by SPIRIT ONE (40). Duke Of Marmalade is a great big, long striding beast and I'm not at all sure he'd be effective over this trip in a slow or even moderately run race. He's always looked like an out and out twelve furlong horse to me.

In this regard Duke Of Marmalade is very reminiscent of his stablemate Dylan Thomas, the top older horse of last year, who he looks set to be a stand in for. Dylan Thomas was also vulnerable off a slow early gallop at ten furlongs.

It is hard to say whether Duke Of Marmalade would have been able to hold off the half length runner up SADDEX (42) if that one hadn't been boxed in till inside the final furlong. When he finally got clear Saddex fairly rushed up to Duke Of Marmalade but was held by him over the last fifty yards. My feeling is that if he'd got out sooner he'd have won in a photo.

The thing about Saddex is he does tend to get himself into traffic problems, and this presents a particular problem for him in big fields. If he'd got up here and one short head result had gone the other way Saddex would have won all eight times he's run in fields of eight or less. He's yet to score in half a dozen starts in bigger fields.

The great thing about this run is that it showed Saddex doesn't need a mile and a half to produce his best form. This being so I'm going to be very wary of betting anything to beat him over ten to twelve furlongs when eight or fewer runners line up.

If he were mine the race I'd be shooting for with Saddex is the Eclipse Stakes. Only three times in the last fifteen years have more than eight runners lined up for the big Sandown contest. If Saddex lined up for it this year I'd be hard pressed to name anything that could beat him.

Third placed SAGEBURG (40) failed to stay a mile and a half last year but has run nothing but big races over 9-10 furlongs. Here he was sensibly held up far at the back, a dozen lengths off the searching early pace early on, in an attempt to conserve his stamina. He surged up to the leaders from the home turn and kept on strongly till his effort flattened out in the last 100 yards.

I think Sageburg's entry in the upcoming Prix du Muguet over a mile is intriguing. It will certainly be interesting to see how he does at some point this season if he's cut back to a mile. He has plenty of pace and clearly only just gets ten furlongs.

Spirit One, really should have won the race from a statistical standpoint. I say this because the last thirteen winners of the Prix Ganay were either multiple Group 1 winners or had finished first or second in the key prep race, the Prix d'Harcourt over the course and distance a couple of weeks earlier. With no multiple Group 1 winners lining up Sprit One's second place finish in the Prix d'Harcourt made him the sole qualifier on this angle. As it turns out he ended up running a close fourth after setting a gallop that may have been just a bit too fast. I still say that he can win a Group 1 race over ten furlongs if he's allowed a softer lead than he got here.

Further back in the field ZAMBEZI SUN (37) finished sixth after looking to be going best of all when cruising up on the outside with three and a half furlongs to run. It looked like he blew up through lack of fitness in the closing stages though. This was his seasonal debut and the trip was probably a bit on the short side for him. He's already a Group 1 winner over a mile and a half and looks a big threat to win again at that level sometime soon. I expect him to come on a lot for this run and would like to see him go for the Coronation Cup next where I'd give him a major chance.

COASTAL PATH MAKES IT FIVE OUT OF FIVE

It has been many years since a stayer has shown such promise and ability as COASTAL PATH (38) has. He earned one of the biggest speed ratings I gave a three year old last season and maintained his unbeaten record when winning the Prix de Barbeville on his seasonal debut at Longchamp.

Coastal Path was always going the best. In fact several times through the last mile his jockey had to take a pull to stop him going to the front too soon. The race developed into a sprint up the homestraight but this proved no problem for Coastal Path. He did take a little time to put the runner up away but was powering clear in the closing stages to win ears pricked and full of run.

It would be an interesting experiment to see if Coastal Path could cut back to a mile and a half. And I see trainer Andre Fabre does have him entered in the Coronation Cup over that trip. But I imagine his main objective in the immediate future will be to avenge the defeat of his half brother and stablemate Reefscape by Yeats in the Ascot Gold Cup. That race is normally run on the fast ground Fabre says Coastal Path needs. And he looks to have a great chance of taking it on my ratings. He certainly looks fantastic value at the 11-1 the bookies are offering.

PROVISO GETS DONE FOR SPEED AGAIN

I noted last year that PROVISO (23) looked much more of an Oaks than a Guineas candidate seeing how she'd been outpaced before staying on in the Fillies Mile. I'm now even more confirmed in that view after watching her get totally outsprinted in the closing stages of the Prix Vanteaux over an extended nine furlongs.

Proviso set a moderate pace in the Prix Vanteaux and tried to kick away from her rivals turning for home. But she could never produce the necessary acceleration and was quickly picked up by the first and second, Belle Allure (26) and Wait And See (25) who simply ran away from her in the last furlong.

I really don't think the first or second are close to Group 1 class. Their previous form indicates they're barely Listed class in fact. It just looked like a case of Proviso losing to inferior rivals because she needed a much greater test of stamina. Perhaps she'll get it in the Prix de Diane over 10.5 furlongs. But I suspect trainer Andre Fabre will agree with me that Proviso now needs a mile and a half and will steer her towards the Oaks at Epsom instead.

Proviso earned a big speed rating from me when winning a very strongly run Group 3 over seven furlongs up the straight at Deauville last August. I still see her as a smart prospect for Epsom.

VISION D'ETAT PROBABLY NOT GROUP 1 CLASS

VISION D'ETAT (33) stretched his unbeaten record to four with a decent win in the Listed Preix de Suresnes at Chantilly. The early pace was slow, so the early time wasn't as fast as it could have been. They ran the last half mile about two seconds quicker than in the truly run Tierce handicap earlier on the card. My best guess is that Vision D'Etat would have earned a speed rating of around 37 in a true run race, which makes him shy of Prix du Jockey Club standard.

Vision D'Etat stretched out well in the last furlong to win the sprint up he homestraight by three lengths. However he was hard ridden all the way and failed to show the serious burst of acceleration I'd expect of a proper Group 1 horse. His pedigree hardly looks like that of a potential Derby winner either as his dam was a three time hurdles winner (two of them claiming races) and two of her other three winning foals were steeplechasers. My feeling is that Group 3 will be as high as Vision D'Etat progresses. He might improve later because right now he looks rather immature physically. But for now I don't see him as a big Prix du Jockey Club contender.

YOUNG TIGER JUST KEEPS ON WINNING

YOUNG TIGER (38) may not be that young at seven years of age. But he just keeps on winning. He took a ten furlong Listed race in the fastest time of the day at Toulouse, earning a Group 3 class speed rating from me.

Young Tiger has now won the last ten times he's run on grass. His sole loss in recent starts came the one time he ran on Fibresand at Deauville where he finished second to the multiple Group winner Santiago.

At Toulouse Young Tiger lobbed along at the back of the field and always looked like he was going to get there when the usual French sprint up the straight began.

Young Tiger's long sequence of wins includes races in France and Spain and has been achieved at distances ranging from a mile to a mile and a half. He really is a remarkable old horse.

NATAGORA WILL BE VERY HARD TO BEAT IN 1,000 GUINEAS

The two biggest speed ratings I've awarded to1,000 Guineas candidates in Classic trials during the last decade were the 38 I gave to Speciosa in 2006 and the 39 Wince got from me back in 1999. Both fillies went on to win the big race. This being so I'm going to be very wary of opposing NATAGORA (39) at Newmarket now that she's gone and run just as fast to win the Prix Imprudence at Maisons-Laffitte.

Trainer Pascal Bary said that Natagora had strengthened up, particularly over the neck, since last year. Her jockey Cristophe Lemaire reported that she raced in a more relaxed manner and that the only reason he had her in second place early on was because she broke so well.

Natagora was always moving smoothly, obviously going the best. A furlong and a half out Lemaire moved her out of the leader's slipstream and shook her up. She lengthened her stride, quickly drew level and then went steadily further away without Lemaire having to resort to the whip. She visibly had plenty of energy left in her at the end of a strongly run seven furlongs on soft ground.

Natagora is a good-sized, rather scopey filly that's always looked likely to get the mile. Seeing how well she finished here, and with so much stamina in her pedigree, especially on her dam's side, it's tough to make a case that she won't last the extra furlong at Newmarket.

In fact, looking at Natagora's physique, relaxed running style and pedigree, I reckon she'll stay ten furlongs, maybe more.

Natagora's sire did run second in a Group 1 at six furlongs but he was by the brilliant middle distance sire Sunday Silence, won a Group 2 over a mile and placed over longer. Natagora's dam won over ten and a half furlongs and has produced two other winners. One of them won over nine furlongs early in her career but her subsequent eight wins were all over ten furlongs to half a furlong shy of the St Leger trip. The other winning foal out of Natagora's dam didn't score on the flat. Her three wins were in hurdles over two miles, three furlongs.

The connections of Natagora clearly think she'll stay as her three future French Group race entries are in ten furlong plus contests (including the Prix du Jockey Club).

Runner-up MODERN LOOK (37) had trouble going the fast early pace but picked up strongly throughout the last furlong to take second on the line. Her trainer says she wasn't liking the soft ground. This makes sense as she has a fast ground action and horses with a turn of foot like hers invariably need a quicker surface.

On her last start at two Modern Look had no difficulty keeping up with the early pace when taking the Group 3 Prix Eclipse, also over seven furlongs. But that was only because the early pace was slow. When that race developed into a sprint over the last three furlongs Modern Look took quite some time to assert and only did so in the closing stages. There and in this race, she looked like she was crying out for a step up to a mile.

Make no mistake, Natagora was not the only high class filly in this line up. Modern Look had won three in a row before this race and is a very smart filly. On faster ground and over another furlong she would have undoubtedly been a much bigger threat to the winner.

Looking at her pedigree and physique I'd say that Modern Look is an out and out miler. She's entered for the Prix Saint Alary and Prix de Diane over longer but I doubt she'll take up those engagements. However she's looking awfully good for the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (French 1,000 Guineas).

Twenty seven of the last twenty nine runnings of the Pouliches have been won by a horse that had previously reached the first three in a Listed or Group race that same season. Last season there were only four horses in the big line up that matched this profile. They included the eventual first and second. This year the strongest candidate on the stats is surely going to be Modern Look.

Third placed BLUE CAYENNE (37) also posted a fast time. She showed seriously good early speed, setting a strong gallop. But she did tire noticeably in the last furlong.

Blue Cayenne is a muscular, good-bodied sort who has the build of a sprinter. She made all the running at a strong pace to win over seven furlongs on her seasonal debut. But, despite good indications from her pedigree that she'd get longer, she has yet to go further than seven furlongs. Her connections did enter her up for a mile contest last month but opted for the shorter race at Saint-Cloud instead. She's not in the Pouliches or any other upcoming Group race come to that. I suspect she's just a sprinter. I can see her being effective if cut back to six furlongs. But I'm very doubtful about her prospects over a mile. She's just too much of a speedball.

SALUT L'AFRICAIN BEST UP STRAIGHT

Rob Collet and Jeane Claude-Rouget invariably have their strings fitter than most of the top trainers this early in the season. So it's not surprising they've done so well in the Prix Djebel. In fact if you'd bet their runners in the Prix Djebel with official ratings of 99 or more over the last dozen years you'd have done very well indeed - winning six times out of eight. It would have been seven out of eight if Zipping hadn't lost by a half length for Collet one year.

This year, with Rouget's enter War Officer being scratched, it was left to Collet to win the race with his runner SALUT L'AFRICAIN (27).

Salut L'Africain was always close up in a slowly run race and gradually edged to the front in a bunch finish as the field sprinted the last two furlongs.

This did not look like a Group 1 effort by any means. I'd be surprised if Salut L'Africain ever won at that level. In addition it seems clear that Salut L'Africain is a much better proposition on straight courses. His four wins have all been up the straight. He's lost all five times he's been asked to run around a turn.

Salut L'Africain actually won the first three times he ran up the straight over six furlongs or more, or on very soft ground over five - including in a good Listed race. But he looked to gain stamina as the season progressed last term and was stepped up to seven furlongs and a mile for five consecutive races. When he cut back to try six furlongs up the in three subsequent big races he was outpaced early on and then stayed on late.

It was a similar story in the six and a half furlong Fibresand Listed race on his previous start. Salut L'Africain was stone last early on but stayed on strongly through the last furlong and would have been second in another thirty or forty yards.

I remain agnostic about whether Salut L'Africain will stay a mile. But I'm rather sure he's not Group 1 and is best on a straight course. I see him losing the French Guineas but would be rather interested in his chances if he shipped over for the Jersey Stakes over seven furlongs up the straight at Royal Ascot. He's repeatedly shown that he has a good turn of foot and smart over the distance.

If there was a Group 1 horse in the race it was almost certainly the short head runner up ELUSIF (27). He was held up in last place and found himself with the rest of the field forming a wall in front of him when the sprint to the line began two furlongs out. He had to switch around them all to make his run and was finishing best.

Elusif clearly has a serious turn of foot, one that is much better suited to faster ground. He showed this on his previous start at two when quickening up in remarkable style to come from stone last, five lengths off the leader, with a furlong to win going right away.

On faster ground Elusif is surely going to run well in the French Guineas. But the stats are against him. Foreign trained runners have passed the post first in seven of the last ten runnings of the colts Classic, including the last three. And the results of the race show that if the French are going to hold the foreign raiders at bay it will be with a horse that has run this season and won last time out. Fifteen of the last sixteen French trained winners were in fact horses that won last time out this season.

The statistic makes perfect sense as the French racing season starts a couple of months earlier than it does in Britain and Ireland. So a horse better have been showing very smart form as it will have had time to reach its peak unlike its British and Irish counterparts.

You could argue that Elusif should have won this race so he fits the above profile. But my gut feel is that he was up against Group 3 rivals here and should have won despite the traffic problems and not liking the ground if he was going to take a Classic.

BLUSTER IS SERIOUSLY SPEEDY

British and Irish stables have grown used to dominating the early season pattern races for two year olds in France in recent years. As the French have held back their better youngsters till later and later in the season the raiders have done steadily better. But this year the French have one seriously speedy youngster that looks set to give the foreigners a run for their money in BLUSTER (35).

Bluster is a very mature, close-coupled, muscular sort - an out and out sprinter in physique. He made an impressive winning debut over five furlongs in a debutantes race at Maisons-Laffitte where he had his rivals in trouble almost instantly. Jumping quickly he was quickly in the lead, setting the kind of pace you don't often see in an early season two year old race. His rivals were soon being scrubbed along while he kept moving smoothly. With a furlong or so to go they'd all had enough and this enabled Bluster to surge clear and win full of running while being eased in the closing stages.

I've no doubt Bluster could have run faster if he'd been pressed here and would bet him to beat any two year old seen out in Europe so far. His pedigree, physique and running style indicate he won't go any further than six furlongs. But right now the big juvenile races are all going to be over that trip or shorter. Make no mistake this is a seriously fast youngster.

LA FORCE IS WITH HIGH ROCK

The farcically slow early pace of this year's Prix La Force means that no meaningful insight can be gained from the time of the race. But I'd be very surprised if the winner HIGH ROCK (12) doesn't prove top class. After pulling hard against the slow pace he totally outsprinted his rivals when the race began in earnest over the last two furlongs, leaving them all for dead.

High Rock lost on his racecourse debut but has won all three of his starts since. He clearly has a remarkable turn of foot.

High Rock looks unlikely to stay much further than the ten furlongs of the Prix La Force. His sire is Rock Of Gibraltar. His dam failed to win beyond eleven furlongs and the nineteen flat wins scored by her offspring to date were all over that distance or less (she has had one hurdles winner).

No doubt High Rock will be a warm favourite for the Prix du Jockey Club because of this run. And I wouldn't be worried about the likely quicker surface at Chantilly. Horses with acceleration like his invariably prefer faster ground. The thing that concerns me is he's not that big and may well encounter traffic problems trying to deliver a similar late burst in the Prix du Jockey Club. The only time he's run in anything but a single figure field was on his racecourse debut. There he found himself behind a wall of horses when turning into the straight stone last in a field of fourteen. He had to wait and wait until a gap finally opened with two furlongs to run. He finished fast but only got up for third.

Until he proves me wrong I'll be betting against High Rock in fields of twelve or more except on a straight course. In smaller fields though his turn of foot looks likely to prove a very effective weapon.

ZARKAVA MOWS THEM DOWN

Like the Prix La Force, the Priox de la Grotte featured a very slow early pace. But again, the winner is surely top class, this being ZARKAVA (11).

Zarkava was about six lengths back in fifth early on but pulled her way up to be on the shoulders of the leader with two furlongs to go. From there she only had to be ridden out with hands and heels to sprint away from her rivals and win cruising.

Zarkava is a big, tall, long striding filly that looks certain to stay at least ten furlongs. So I just wonder if she might get beat in the Pouliches (French 1000 Guineas) and go on to take the Prix de Diane (French Oaks). I concede that the turn of foot she showed here off a slow pace made her seem very effective over a mile but it's hard to escape the strong visual impression that she's built for longer trips.

ECHOES ROCK SHOULD FINALLY WIN A GROUP RACE

KRATAIOS (38) is a remarkably consistent old horse. The eight year old always seems to run his race and is very tough to beat below Group class. He's only won one of his eleven tries in Group company. But in lower grade he's scored nine times out of fourteen. He fell in one of his losses below Group class but ran second the other four times.

The latest success scored by Krataios came in the Listed Prix Jacques Laffitte over nine furlongs up the straight at Maisons-Laffitte. In this race the big gelding was held up and had to wait for a gap to open which it finally did with a furlong and a half to run. At that point Krataios surged into a narrow lead from ECHOES ROCK (38) which he held all the way to the line.

Krataios will probably keep on doing what he's done and lose in Group company. But Echoes Rock does look set to finally win a Group race this year. He is now five years of age but has only had nine runs. In addition he's a German bred and we've seen a lot of German horses improve at five - for example Manduro last season and Shirocco the season before.

I'm not suggesting that Echoes Rock is going to prove as good as either of those stars. But he's won or got to within half a length of the winner in seven of his nine starts, with his two sub-par performances probably being on ground that was a bit fast for him.

Echoes Rock initially looked like he'd catch Krataios when he started his run. But when his jockey saw he couldn't get by the winner he gave him an easy time in the last fifty yards.

This was the first start of the year for Echoes Rock. So he did well to run a useful, race-fit rival so close. He is probably better over ten furlongs and does look to need a bit of cut in the ground. His trainer, Andre Fabre, has a tremendous record with the horses sent to him by the top German breeders and looks set to add to it with Echoes Rock this year.

LOUP BRETON HAS IMPROVED

Trainer Eli Lellouche says that LOUP BRETON (40) has grown and improved over the Winter. It certainly looked that way in the Prix D'Harcourt when the four year old produced a sustained burst to make up a lot of ground and collar the smart front runner SPIRIT ONE (40) close home and win going away.

Loup Breton has so far only won in single figure fields. And he's run into traffic in a bigger field once. So it's tempting to conclude that he needs a small field to ensure he can deliver his run effectively. But I'm inclined to take Lellouche at this word and treat Loup Breton as an entirely new horse. He was impressive here and finished full of run. I suspect he can run faster and is going to be competitive in Group 1 races from now on regardless of the number of runners. No doubt we shall find out in the Prix Ganay.

Spirit One looked as though he might develop into a Champion after his brilliant two year old career. But had his official rating dropped ten pounds after a series of failures as a three year old. He bounced back with a three length win on his seasonal debut in the Prix Exbury and followed up with this useful effort. It looks like ten furlongs is his perfect distance and that he was not suited by the two races he had at a mile and the one at a mile and a half last year. I can see him winning a Group 1 over ten furlongs if he hit a small field and was allowed his own way up front.

BORIS DE DEAUVILLE (39) is very consistent. But he does seem a little behind the very best. He'd be a good thing to win a Group 3 and would have a serious shot of taking another Group 2 if it wasn't as good as this one.

FULL OF GOLD INTERESTING FOR GRAND PRIX DE PARIS

FULL OF GOLD (33), a Group 1 winner at two, duly won the Prix Noailles as expected. But it was a close run thing. He was about five lengths off the leader in third place with little more than two furlongs to run and looked to have a tough task because the early pace had been slow and a sprint finish was developing. However he gradually worked his way up to contention and quickened for the second time when challenged late to win narrowly.

Trainer Criquette Head said afterwards that Full Of Gold was not at peak fitness and was therefore at a disadvantage against rivals that had already had a run. She also said the horse would appreciate a step up in distance. That seems right. I can recall thinking the same thing when watching this tall, long striding sort get going late to storm clear in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint Cloud.

The other thing which held Full Of Gold back I think was the soft ground. Horses with a serious turn of foot like his invariably need a faster surface to produce their best.

Now that the Prix Du Jockey Club has been cut to ten and a half furlongs you have to wonder whether it's going to prove long enough for Full Of Gold. I suspect not and believe his best shot of further Group 1 success will lie in the Grand Prix de Paris over a mile and a half.

ANTIQUITIES IS A HIGH CLASS FILLY

Andre Fabre once said that it takes a Group class horse to win one of the rarely run maiden races at a top French track. He proved himself right when training ANTIQUITIES (37) to win a hot looking debutantes race at Longchamp last week over ten furlongs.

Anitquities was happy to settle off the clear leader and didn't even challenge till two furlongs out. But she produced a tremendous turn of foot when asked to quicken and blasted six lengths clear of her rivals by the finish.

There's not much of Antiquities. But she's clearly smart and is entered up in the Group 1 Prix Saint Alary and Prix de Diane (French Oaks). On this showing she must rank as the top contender we've seen for those races. I wouldn't be worried about faster ground either. Horses with her turn of foot usually need it.