LE HAVRE THE ONE TO BEAT IN POULAINS

I thought the hot favourite NAAQOOS (40) was very vulnerable over a trip of just seven furlongs in the Prix Djebel. He's always looked like he needs a lot longer to me. The big clue is the length of his stride.

A good rule of thumb is that the longer a horse's stride the longer the distance it will be suited to.

The brilliant Secretariat produced his best effort over a mile and a half. He had a stride that was 32 feet long. The average horse has a stride of about 22 feet. I wish I could know how big the stride of Naaqoos is. It's certainly huge, and he used it to good effect to make all the running in the Group 1 Lean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp on his final outing of last season.

That race was over seven furlongs. But you only have to look at Naaqoos to see he surely wants middle-distances. He's a big, tall, rangy, scopey sort that looks totally unlike any Guineas winner I've ever seen. This is not surprising. His dam is a half sister to the Cesarewitch winner and top class hurdler Landing Light. And her two pervious foals were Barastraight, a Group 3 winner over 10f and Delta Bravo who has so far won over 12.5f and run second over the St Leger distance.

I concede that the sire of Naaqoos is the Champion sprinter Oasis Dream. But Oasis Dream ran second over seven furlongs, got beat less than eight lengths in the Breeders' Cup Mile and has produced high class middle distance horses.

For me the thing that clinches the distance arguement with Naaqoos is the way he got so far behind in the Prix Morny over six furlongs. He was well back in that race before finishing well to pass ten horses in the last couple of furlongs and take fifth place. A true Guineas horse would have had the pace to stick closer to the gallop and win or place.

In any event jockey Davy Bonilla made a smart move by kicking on from the start in the Djebel and setting a strong pace on Naaqoos. However with a couple of furlongs to go it looked clear that LE HAVRE (40) was going ominously well behind him. Le Havre soon moved alongside and Naaqoos started to lose the rhythm in his stride as he struggled to match him. There was a spirited duel all the way to the line. But once Le Havre had edged ahead narrowly it was clear Naaqoos just didn't have the pace to peg him back and that his rival could have pulled out a bit more if required.

This was a proper Group 1 performance by early season three year olds on my speed ratings. So I can see how you can argue that Naaqoos still has a major chance of taking the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) over an extra furlong. My problem with that is the lack of acceleration he showed here off a searching early gallop. I think this will make him a sitting duck to a horse with a turn of foot over a trip as short as a mile. He's clearly top class but I won't be supporting him till he steps up to ten and a half furlongs in the Prix du Jockey Club.

Having said that I must add that Le Havre does not seem to be receiving the credit he deserves for this win. He earned the biggest speed rating I've given a Guineas Trial winner since Refuse To Bend back in 2003. As I see it he deserves to be favourite for the Poulains off this run.

Trainer stats pointed strongly to Le Havre before the race. These show that Rob Collet and Jeane Claude-Rouget have their strings fitter than most of the top French trainers this early in the season. And if you'd bet their runners in the Prix Djebel with official ratings of 99 or more over the last dozen years you'd have done very well indeed - winning six times out of eight. It would have been seven out of eight if Zipping hadn't lost by a half length for Collet one year. Collet didn't have a runner in the Prix Djebel this year. But Rouget did. He trains Le Havre whose success took the stats for him and Collet with high rated runners in the Djebel to seven from nine.

Le Havre certainly deserved his pre-race official rating of 106. He won on his debut from a pattern class rival at Clairefontaine. But it is his next win at Saint-Cloud that made his reputation. In that race he produced a smart burst of speed to cruise away from a rival that subsequently ran third in a Group 1. The pair pulled three lengths clear of the rest.

Le Havre wasn't able to produce the same acceleration when starting favourite for the Group 1 Criterium International on his third and final start last year. But he still ran a big race on ground that was way too soft for a horse with a fast ground action like his.

Le Havre was badly boxed in for most of the race in the Criterium International. It was only inside the last quarter mile, after the field had entered the straight and moved en masse to the stands rail to get to the better ground that a gap appeared. And he still had to be switched to take it. At first he picked up well and was just half a length off the lead as seven horses sprinted almost line abreast for the finish with a furlong to go. But he couldn't produce the extra zip he'd shown on his previous start, ceded ground and ended up just last of the packed bunch by under three lengths at the finish. His jockey didn't push him that hard in the last half furlong. If he had he would probably have finished fifth instead of seventh.

Le Harvre is a close-coupled, wiry sort that, unlike Naaqoos, looks ideally suited to seven furlongs and a mile. His dam was unraced and has yet to have another foal run. But her best sibling, and the one whose sire is most closely related to Le Havre's sire is Polar Falcon who won the Lockinge over a mile before cutting back to six furlongs to win the Sprint Cup. Le Havre is a similar type to Polar Falcon physically and seems to share many of his attributes.

The ground is usually fast for the French Guineas. If it is this year then I think we'll see Le Havre confirm this form with Naaqoos. In fact I think he'll increase his advantage as he looked to have a bit in hand at the finish.

I liked the way third placed DIABLESIDE (38) moved up boldly inside the last quarter mile to almost join the first two before getting beaten back in the final furlong. He is bred to get ten furlongs and produced his best previous effort over a mile, so this was a smart effort over such a short trip. He doesn't look to have the physique of a Group 1 horse to me, but I see him winning a decent Group race sometime this season. He certainly ran fast enough for that here.

IS A MILE TOO SHORT FOR ELUSIVE WAVE?

The win scored by ELUSIVE WAVE (37) in the seven furlong Prix Imprudence was rather reminiscent of her debut success over six furlongs at Goodwood last year. As at Goodwood, it was only in the final furlong as her stamina kicked in that she began to clear away from her rivals. She'd set a strong pace and had to be nudged along all the way. But in the last 100 yards or so she was really powering away from her rivals.

This was only a Group 3 class performance on the clock by Elusive Wave, and it left me wondering if she'll improve enough for the extra furlong to get competitive in the Poule d'Essai de Pouliches (French 1,000 Guineas). If she gets going too late there, as I suspect she will, I'd like to see her take up her entry in the Prix de Diane (French Oaks).

MAGADAN NEEDS A STRONG PACE

MAGADAN (39) is a tall, deep chested, long striding sort that finished strongly in both the Prix du Jockey Club and Grand Prix de Paris last year. He's not best suited by the slow early pace and sprint finishes which are a feature of so many French races. So his stable put in a front runner that set a strong pace for him on his comeback race, the Listed Prix Lord Seymour.

Magadan sat in last position for most of the race and was just lobbing along while his rivals were all being ridden hard just before turning in three furlongs out. He soon swept past everything down the outside and won well, only having to be ridden out to score.

When he ran third in the Grand Prix de Paris, Magadan earned a slightly bigger speed rating from me than he did here. He's probably capable of taking an ordinary Group 1 in soft ground or off a strong early pace at a mile and a half.

If he were mine I'd be inclined to give Magadan an even longer Summer break than most French horses get and bring him back for a shot at the big late season mile and a half Group 1's that are most often run with a bit of cut in the ground. These being the Grosser Preis von Baden, the Canadian International and the Gran Premio del Jockey Club. Right now the obvious target for him is the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud. If his stable employ a pacemaker in that race for him once more he'd deserve to be one of the favourites.

SILVER FROST NEEDS A BREAK

SILVER FROST (37) earned a big write up from me when winning a Listed race in very fast time on his seasonal debut. So I expected him to win the Group 3 Prix de Fontainebleau a good deal more easily than he did last week.

Things looked good as he swept through from third off the searching early pace to lead before the furlong pole. But he began to run out of gas in the final 200 yards and was being caught rather rapidly by the second and third. His jockey gave him four cracks of the whip to keep him going and was only able to drop his hands in the final 25 yards when it was too late for his rivals to catch him. He ended up winning by just half a length, running the final furlong and a half 0.3 seconds slower than Magadan did in the Listed race over half a mile longer earlier on the card.

I think the reason Silver Frost tired late and turned in a sub par effort here is that he is best fresh. Horses of this type invariably do best on their first two runs of the season and then need resting for at least five weeks thereafter to run well again. Silver Frost has won all five times he's gone six furlongs or more when fresh in this way and lost both times he hasn't been. He's a Group 1 horse, but I'm rather sure he now needs a break.

Having seen the way he backed up in the last furlong I'm now much less sure about Silver Frost going longer than a mile. But that debate is for another day. Right now I'll happily oppose Silver Frost in the Poulains or in the 2000 Guineas if he is supplemented for that race.

It looks like Aidan O'Brien has found his Prix du Jockey Club horse, or at least one of them, in the runner up WESTPHALIA (37). He's a big tall horse whose dam won over ten furlongs at Longchamp and who has produced a runner up in a US stakes race over twelve furlongs.

Westphalia certainly seemed to benefit from the searching early pace set by his pacemaker and came through with a wet sail in the closing stages. He was catching the winner rather rapidly but not quite rapidly enough, losing by half a length. Obviously he'll need to improve to come into the reckoning for the big French race but that certainly looks possible over the extra distance - which he surely now needs.

BLACK BEAR ISLAND RUNS A GOOD DERBY TRIAL

Aidan O'Brien once quipped to a reporter that his three year olds were always as big as bulls before their seasonal debuts. So it's no big surprise that he's only won once with the seventeen three year olds that he's run in pattern company off a break of eight months or more.

O'Brien's latest loser of this type was BLACK BEAR ISLAND (34) who actually ran a most promising Derby trial in the Prix La Force over an inadequate ten furlongs after a very troubled passage.

Black Bear Island traveled well all the way but was totally boxed in until a furlong out, by which time the first two had flown. He picked up strongly to chase them and close the gap in the closing stages and impressed me with the energy he showed.

Earlier Black Bear Island had looked to be going well enough to win when jockey Johnny Murtagh repeatedly tried to find an opening for him. But there was no real harm done. This was only a Derby trial, and a very good one. The way Black Bear Island ran here tells me he's absolutely nailed on to get the Derby distance and to improve greatly. He's a big, handsome horse who is just bound to come on for the run.

If he were mine I'd be inclined to go for one of the two longest Derby trials with Black Bear Island - the Chester Vase or the Lingfield Derby Trial. He looks a bit more of a staying type than his brilliant brother High Chaparral. So I'm not sure he can run produce his best over ten furlongs as that one could.

PLUMANIA SHOULD IMPROVE A LOT FOR THIS RUN

The Prix Penelope was run at a ludicrously slow early pace this year. And that cannot have suited PLUMANIA (27) who finished like a train in the Marcel Boussac last season and clearly wants a test of stamina.

Early on Plumania was one of several fillies throwing her head about against the dawdle. Her jockey got her anchored in behind other runners but took a while to extract her, ceding first run to Celimene (28) who proceeded to sprint the last two and a half furlongs over two seconds faster than they had in the Tierce Handicap over a much shorter trip earlier on the card.

It actually looked like Plumania would be able to make up the leeway briefly. But then she jinked left and lost momentum just before the furlong pole and the jig was up. She picked up again and closed once more. However you just can't catch a winner that's been allowed first run off such a slow pace.

I've no doubt that Plumania is a significantly better horse than the winner. She still looks a leading candidate for the Prix de Diane. In fact I note with interest she's also entered for the Oaks at Epsom. Her three siblings all won over 12 furlongs or more and include the winner of the 12.5f Group 2 Prix Royallieu Balladeuse. I can readily see Plumani staying that far.

NEVER ON SUNDAY MAY BE THE TOP HORSE IN FRANCE

After he'd won his first three starts last year I predicted that TRINCOT (42) would most likely run into traffic problems when he ran in bigger fields. My reasoning was that he's a light-framed sort that comes from way back, so he'd have real trouble fighting his way past bigger rivals in a crowded field.

Sure enough Trincot got impeded when running unplaced in the 20 runner Prix du Jockey Club and 16 runner Prix jean Prat. He was also cited in five separate incidents in running in the official stewards report when running tenth of fourteen in the Hong Kong Cup in December. But he bounced back to his best to win the best renewal of the Group 2 Prix d'Harcourt we've seen in years.

The 2009 renewal of the Prix d'Harcourt featured at least six proper Group 1 horses. But Trincot mowed them down with an electrifying burst of speed down the wide outside.

Trincot has now won four of the last five times he's run in single figure fields, his sole loss being a third place finish in a hot Group 3 following his Summer break last term. He's lost all five times he's run in bigger fields.

However Trincot's preference for a small field may no longer be so cut and dried. Firstly he has filled out and muscled up a fair amount since last year. He's still only medium sized but is nothing like as narrow and skinny as he was last season. He was apparently really light-framed at two and grew a good deal from two to three according to his trainer Philippe Demercastel.

Then there is the way Trincot dealt with traffic in this race. As they turned into the straight he was hemmed in but didn't bat an yielded as his jockey yanked him out and deliberately bumped into the horse on his outside to create an opening. I've never seen Trincot do this sort of thing before.

Demercastel commented on this after the race. He told reporters "I think that the Australian blinkers (sheepskin cheekpieces) made him good. He has gained character with age, being less hesitant."

I've noted before that the sheepskin cheekpieces which Trincot wore for the first time here, seem to form a psychological buffer for some horses, making them more at ease when a race gets crowded. This may well be the case with Trincot. But I'm still going to oppose him in big fields till he's won in one.

A big field is unlikely to be a problem in Trincot's next target, the Prix Ganay. The last twelve runnings of the Ganay have attracted fields of nine or less. The stats certainly point towards Trincot pulling off the double in Ganay. They show that the last thirteen of the last fourteen winners of the Prix Ganay were either multiple Group 1 winners or had finished first or second in the Prix d'Harcourt.

The three length runner up THE BOGBERRY (40) was beaten a similar margin by Trincot before. And I can't think of any multiple Group 1 winner that's likely to run in the Ganay. So it looks like Trincot has a serious chance of scoring his first Group 1 win in the race. Whether we'll be seeing him run in Britain or Ireland I'm not sure. His incredible turn of foot makes him an ideal candidate for the huge international prizes available elsewhere, as long as he can cope with bigger fields. Only time will tell on that score. Right now the time of Trincot's run in the Prix d'Harcourt is telling us he is a serious Group 1 horse.

Actually The Bogberry did have real trouble getting a run in this race. He was boxed in badly with less than a quarter of a mile to run and got buffeted back and forth like a ball in a pinball machine as his rider desperately smashed him through a gap inside the final furlong when Trincot had already flown. He finished with real zest and is clearly a smart horse in his own right.

It's amazing just how much The Bogberry improved. Last June he only ran fifth in a valuable handicap, the Ulster Harp Derby at Down Royal. But he returned off a three month break to beat the French Derby runner up Famous Name at Leopardstown. Then he ran third to Trincot over a trip on the short side for him in the Prix Dollar before getting beat just a length into fourth in the incredibly valuable Hong Kong Vase in a field of smart international performers. That race was over 12 furlongs. And the way The Bogberry was finishing here and in the Prix Dollar suggests that the longer distance is more suitable. That said he does look incredibly versatile and is rather reminiscent of the just retired globetrotter Doctor Dino who beat him so narrowly in Hong Kong.

Seeing that he's Breeders' Cup nominated and can therefore get into the race without a huge supplementary entry fee being paid, the obvious target for The Bogberry just has to be the Breeders' Cup Turf. He'd have a major shot in that race. He'd also have a big chance if he took another crack at the Hong Kong Vase. Indeed there are plenty of big international prizes he can shoot for and The Bogberry just has to keep on producing form like this to take one of them.

The Prix du Jockey Club winner VISION D'ETAT (40) was a bit fresh on his first start of the year, racing rankly and throwing his head around until his jockey allowed him to stride forward into second place. He stayed there and moved well all the way to the line but was beginning to be totally swamped for speed by everything around him at the finish. In another few strides he would only have finished sixth. He is jump bred on the dam's side and has always looked more of a mile and a half horse to me. So I'd bet on him floundering once more any time he runs ten furlongs in top company like this in future - unless the ground is soft. Like most of these, he goes for the Ganay. I wouldn't be disappointed if he runs unplaced there. Over longer he's capable of taking another Group 1.

Last year's winner LOUP BRETON (40) had a bit of trouble finding a run but finished with a flourish when he did so. Then again four horses were finishing as fast, so I don't think he was unlucky. He remains a smart horse at ten furlongs. But his record suggests he needs resting after his first two starts of the year, so I'd bet on him running below this level if he contests the Prix Ganay.

The most eye-catching performance of the whole race was put up by fifth placed NEVER ON SUNDAY (39). His jockey steadily eased the handsome grey back through the field from third early on to second last when he saw how strong the pace was. It was a sensible move but it caused Never On Sunday to be totally hemmed in with nowhere to go most of the way up the straight. He took a bump and had to be checked off the heels of a horse in front of him as his jockey tried to find a way through. But it was only inside the final furlong that a gap opened. When it did Never On Sunday fairly surged forward, picking up ground remarkably quickly on rivals that were themselves sprinting. What made it all the more impressive was that his jockey was only shaking the reins at him. It looked like he knew he couldn't win and was simply doing enough to ensure his mount got some benefit from the race.

Never On Sunday is a big, good-bodied, strong, really classy looking sort with a long, flowing stride that's designed for fast ground. So it's not surprising he only ran fourth when encountering heavy ground at Saint-Cloud. His other defeat came when he finished with a tremendous surge in the last 100 yards when losing by just a short head over an inadequate mile on his seasonal debut last term.

Never On Sunday is a big horse, so he may well have needed this run, as it was his first of the season. He lost his first run last year too but has won all six of his other starts outside of that flop on heavy ground. He earned one of the biggest speed ratings I gave a three year old last season when coming from twenty lengths back to win the Prix du Prince d'Orange. I strongly suspect that he is the best horse in France right now. I do hope he goes for the Prix Ganay because I reckon he can beat the horses he ran against here, even Trincot, when he's fitter and enjoys better luck in running.

The Grand Prix de Paris runner up PROSPECT WELLS (38) got worked up by the application of first time blinkers and simply would not settle. He could be seen sweating and throwing his head around for a long way while his jockey tried to restrain before tiring late.

Prospect Wells is a tall, strong, long striding, staying sort that doesn't look ideally suited to the sprint finishes that are such a feature of French racing. He's now finished sixth or worse three times in a row despite running below Group 1 class every time. His trainer, Andre Fabre, has had a lot of runners in the Coronation Cup at Epsom over the years. That's the race I'd be targeting with Prospect Wells in the immediate future. He surely won't have the pace for the shorter Prix Ganay and would actually be rather interesting if stepped up to marathon distances.

GOLDEN SWORD CAN DO A LOT BETTER

Aidan O'Brien seems to run only top class horses in the Prix Noailles.

His first runner, Ciro, only ran third, but beat the winner Kutub in the Group 1 Prix Lupin next time before taking the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes in America.

O'Brien's second Noailles runner was Ballingarry. He won, went on to place in four Group 1's that year before finally taking the Grade 1 Canadian International in the Autumn.

O'Brien's third and most recent Noailles runner was Soldier Of Fortune. He won the race as well. He went on to win the Irish Derby and next year took the Coronation Cup.

This year O'Brien ran GOLDEN SWORD (36) in the Prix Noialles and took the precaution of supplying him with what surely should have been a pacemaker in Crowfoot (32). But, for whatever reason, Crowfoot never went to the front despite a slow early gallop. Christophe Soumillon was clearly expecting him to as he took a long look over his left shoulder after a couple of furlongs, signaling that he believed Crowfoot should come through and take up the running. But he never did, perhaps because he was a bit boxed in.

In any event when the inevitable sprint up the straight began Golden Sword was caught flat footed. He's a big, tall, deep chested, long striding sort that's built for a strongly run mile and a half race. So it was not big surprise to see him gradually cede ground to his rivals after being second for a long way. He ended up finishing a close fourth. Off a stronger pace or over a longer distance I suspect he would have had the ability to win.

O'Brien's three year olds invariably come on considerably for their first run of the season. And Golden Sword is such a big-bodied horse I'd bet on him improving more than most. He's grown a remarkable amount since last season and is now a handsome specimen.

This was hardly a vintage renewal of the Prix Noialles. The first and second had been campaigned on the AW over the Winter. But I'm now getting rather interested in Golden Sword. He had no real chance to win the way this race was run. And the very fact that O'Brien ran him in it suggests he's highly regarded. I wouldn’t mind having a few pennies on him for the Derby at the available 33-1.