YES, GOLDIKOVA IS THAT GOOD

After she’d won the Prix d’Astarte I pondered in this column just how fast GOLDIKOVA (45) might have run if she’d been ridden out all the way to the line. After all she coasted the final furlong in 13 seconds in that race and has previously clocked under 11.5 seconds.

It seems that jockey Oliver Peslier shared my curiosity because he decided to ride Goldikova out to the finish in the Prix Jacques Le Marois. The result was that she clocked 11.3 seconds for the final furlong, broke the race record and earned an absolutely monstrous speed rating from me, the biggest I can recall ever giving a filly.

As I’ve mentioned, Freddy Head seems to train his top horses to peak in the second half of the season. This almost certainly explains why Goldikova has blanked if four starts before July but remains unbeaten in nine races from July onwards.

After her latest win Freddy Head said that he now felt Goldikova was actually better than Miesque, the brilliant filly that he rode to win the Breeders’ Cup Mile two years in a row.

Personally I’m never keen on comparing horses from different time periods. I prefer to reserve my analytical skills, such as they are, for contests I can actually bet on. And in this regard I’m fairly salivating at the likely prospect of getting odds against when Goldikova attempts to emulate Miesque by taking a second Breeders’ Cup Mile later this year. You can see why when you look at the top Beyer speed figures earned by horses in America this year on www.drf.com. The highest is 106 which is equivalent to just 37 on the scale I use. In other words Goldikova has just run eight lengths faster than any of the local challengers she’s going to meet at Santa Anita.

It would be great if Goldikova is kept in training as a five year old as Head has suggested. If she is then the race I think she should target is the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. She may have had trouble stretching her stamina beyond a mile in Europe. But the 2010 Filly & Mare Turf will be run around the ultra tight seven furlong oval at Churchill Downs. Couple this with the slow early pace of US turf racing and I’d say Goldikova would be nailed on to last home and become the first horse ever to win two different Breeders’ Cup races.

Meanwhile I do hope Goldikova’s connections resist the temptation to run her again before the Breeders’ Cup Mile in the Prix de la Foret. She’s not that big or robust and will surely benefit from a lengthy rest after this very fast effort.

MORNY WAS A RED HOT RACE

This year's two year olds are a unusually strong bunch this year and many of the best ones met in a red hot renewal of the Prix Morny.

ARCANO (39) won the race narrowly in course record time, earning a seriously big speed rating from me. The French filly SPECIAL DUTY (39) ran a huge race to run him close, looking a sure winner till Arcano's late burst caught her on the lone.

Criquette Head seems disconcertingly sure that Special Duty is a sprinter. But I seem to recall she said something similar about both Ma Biche and Ravinella who she ran in nothing but sprints before they took the 1000 Guineas. She has a habit of keeping her best two year olds, especially the fillies, to sprints, often short ones.

In addition Special Duty was hardly stopping. Despite setting a scorching early pace she clocked 11.5 seconds for the final furlong. This suggests she can get longer.

As I've mentioned Special Duty's sire stayed beyond a mile and gets plenty of horses which do the same. And her dam is a half sister to two US Grade 1 winners over nine furlongs. She has the build of a miler to my eye too.

Finally the French have the belief, and the Heads are the firmest believers, that to win a Guineas a French horse must have experience of Newmarket at two. This may be one of those self-fulfilling prophecies but the very fact that Head is aiming Special Duty at the Middle Park strongly suggests she's thinking of the Guineas for the filly.

I'd rate Special Duty's chances of winning the Cheveley Park at well over 50%. This is interesting because three of the last four French fillies to win the Cheveley Park went on to win the 1000 Guineas. I'd also be gobsmacked if she lost the 7f Prix Imprudence first time out next year.

I'd be less confident of Arcano's Classic chances at this point. I can see how you could argue he'll get longer. But, looking at him more closely than I have before I have to say he does have the build of a six furlong sprinter. And if he doesn't step up to seven furlongs before the Dewhurst he'll be attempting to become only the third winner of the race in 21 years not to have run that far previously. He's clearly top class and has a terrific turn of foot but I want to see him prove his stamina before I'll jump on the bandwagon.

A lot of people seem to think that CANFORD CLIFFS (38) ran dramatically below form by getting beat here. I actually had him running only a length per mile below his previous best.

I suggested earlier that since Canford Cliffs is such a big horse Hannon might have trouble getting him fit off a long break and that therefore he might well lose the Greenham on his seasonal debut next year. His performance here backs up this idea. It's also worth bearing in mind that he came into this race off a ten week break and trainer Richard Hannon has lost all 34 times he's run a juvenile off longer than eight weeks rest in pattern company over the last fourteen years.

I know Richard Hannon blames Deauville's lightning fast going for this loss. That makes some sense as Canford Cliff's is a big horse that might well dislike too much jar in the ground. But it seems to me that the big objective for Canford Cliffs all along has been the Dewhurst or the Middle Park Stakes and that this was basically a prep. Adding weight to this idea is that in his 39 year career Hannon has never won a French Group 1 or 2 juvenile race despite specialising in 2YO's. I'd like to see him step up to seven furlongs for the Dewhurst as I believe he'll be better suited to the longer trip and will turn this form around with Arcano. A win in the Middle Park Stakes wouldn't tell us as much or set him up as well for a crack at the Guineas.

If she hadn't twice bumped into the smart Siyouni and Special Duty fourth placed DOLLED UP (37) would have won four of her previous five starts. She got beat a length and a quarter here judged by the photo finish picture rather than the official three parts of a length. But that's still a great effort by a filly that is bred to go longer. I see her winning something very decent sooner rather than later and wouldn't be surprised if she took the Marcel Boussac.

I'm also interested in ZANZIBARI (37) who finished last but only by a length and a half. He chased the front running Special Duty early but is no six furlong sprinter and just couldn't go with the principals late in the race.

Zanzibari's trainer Andre Fabre has been French Champion trainer over twenty times. But he's always specialised in getting horses to go at least a mile. His last Group 1 scorer over less than seven furlongs was the great Zafonic in the Prix Morny way back in 1993. Zanzibari's sire was best over nine furlongs in America while his dam stayed seven furlongs. He himself actually looks more of a ten furlong horse physically to my eye. I'm thinking this is down to the way Fabre trains.

Zanzibari won his maiden in good style. But next time in a Conditions race he got caught flat footed when the leader who had been allowed to go unchallenged at a modest pace suddenly quickened things up. As the commentator said he was finishing 'tres vite' (very quickly) in the last 100 yards but couldn't quite get up.

Next time out in the Prix Cabourg, Zanzibari's jockey took no chances and sat on the tail of the speedy front running filly Sorciere. But when the filly kicked on with just over two furlongs to go he was flat to the boards and dropped back rather dramatically. Luckily for him Sorciere is more a five than a six furlong horse and came back to him. He was able to finish strongly and catch her.

I imagine the plan is for Zanzibari to move to Suroor at season's end so it looks like the UAE Guineas and especially the UAE Derby will be his big targets. I'd fancy him strongly for both, particularly the longer race. With his US dirt pedigree Zanzibari will no doubt be yet another horse to be get involved in Sheikh Mohammed's project of attempting to win the Kentucky Derby with a horse prepped in Dubai. Personally I don't think it will ever happen. Dubai is for all practical purposes part of the European racing circuit, and the only European horse to place in the Kentucky Derby was also the only one to prep in the US. This was Clive Brittain's Bold Arrangement who ran third in the Blue Grass Stakes before finishing second in the Kentucky Derby. Without a similar prep on US dirt I'd bet on Zanzibari adding his name to the long lost of European and Dubai trained losers in the Kentucky Derby.