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GALLAGHER A BETTER PROSPECT THAN BUSHRANGER
GALLAGHER (36) looked set to win the Prix Morny when he
came through from mid field to lead with a furlong and a half to run. But he ran
a bit green in front, drifting first towards the rail and then in the other
direction towards BUSHRANGER (37) when that one came up to dispute the lead. He
ended up losing by just half a length and I suspect he'll prove the better horse
in the long run.
AMERICAIN A FUTURE GROUP 1 WINNER
Remember the huge reputation that Andre Fabre's Spycrawler
had after winning a maiden race on his debut last year? Spycrawler managed just
one more run when third to Soldier Of Fortune. But his dam's second foal to race
AMERICAIN (39) is looking just as good following his half length loss in a red
hot Listed race at Deauville over the St Leger trip.
Americain is trained by Fabre just like Spycrawler and
moved well in second place in the early stages. He then dropped back slightly to
race in a close third for most of the race. However when the pace picked up
markedly in the homestraight with two furlongs to run he was flat to the boards.
He dropped back to fifth and it looked like he was going to be swallowed up by
the field. But in the final 100 yards he began to pick up again very strongly
and was really flying in the last fifty yards, finishing best of all. He would
actually have got up in a few more strides.
The winner WATAR (39) benefited from a smart ride as his
jockey elected to stick to the rail as the others all came wide into the
straight in search of what they clearly thought would be better ground. It looks
like they were mistaken as Watar was able to surge through with an uninterrupted
passage from third last place to lead and then hold off the late rally of
Americain.
Americain is a lightly raced horse that has improved
markedly since being stepped up to a mile and a half plus. He did run one
clunker when unplaced in the Grand Prix de Paris. But that was a rough race
where the big field created plenty of traffic problems. Entering the straight
Americain was boxed in behind a wall of horses. A gap opened inside the two
furlong pole but closed again just as his jockey readied him to take it. By the
time Americain had a clear passage it was too late and his jockey allowed him to
come home in his own time.
Clearly Americain does have a bit of trouble picking up
when the pace accelerates. He's a tall, long striding sort that lengthens rather
than quickens. But you could say the same thing about Dylan Thomas and Duke Of
Marmalade and it didn't stop them winning a string of top races.
I have my eye on Americain as a likely Group 1 winner and
am fantasizing about the prospect of Fabre supplementing him for the St Leger.
More likely I suspect is that he will join his stablemates Getaway and Prospect
Wells in the Arc by way of the Prix Niel which is shaping up to be a red hot
race this year.
The French three year olds are so strong this year that I
suspect whatever wins the Prix Niel is going to win the Arc. I wouldn't discount
Americain's chances in either race. He's improving and has has shown in the past
that he doesn't need marathon trips or soft ground to produce his best form.
My feeling from watching Watar here is that he's probably
going to struggle in Group 1 company. He'd lost narrowly to Americain a couple
of runs back and I suspect is a bit behind that one.
However Watar has run nothing but big races over eleven
furlongs or more. He won his maiden the first time he tried such a trip. Then he
was a close second to Americain. Then he ran third to the top class Montmarte
when that one clocked a very fast time to take the Prix du Luys. And now he's
gone and won this race. If he were mine I'd be taking a long hard look at the
Canadian International. That race offers a big prize and tends to be pretty weak
these days as it clashes with the Breeders' Cup Turf.
MOUNT HELICON (38) had finished further behind Watar than
he did here when fourth to Montmarte in the Prix du Luys. He finished strongly
and it looks like he improved for the step up in distance. He's in the Prix
Kergorlay and looks an interesting candidate for that race. The trouble is he's
trained by Andre Fabre who has two terrific older candidates for the Prix
Kergorlay in Coastal Path and Getaway who are undoubtedly the two best French
stayers in years.
British raider ENROLLER (38) ran a good race to finish a
close fourth. He set a decent gallop but was still able to wind the pace up
slowly from halfway. With half a mile to run he quickened sharply and increased
his lead to two lengths. However he was unable to hold his three smart rivals at
bay in the sprint to the line.
Enroller shows a bit of knee action and clearly needs some
cut in the ground. He ran a big race here and would have won the three previous
times he's run beyond a mile on going that race times indicate was genuinely
yielding or slower but for going under by a head to Chester Vase second All The
Aces earlier this year. He's in the St Leger and could place in that race if he
got his ground. But he's only a Group 3 horse on this run so I can't see him
winning at Doncaster.
DAR RE MI COULD BEAT ZARKAVA IN VERMEILLE
The Prix Minerve was run at a ludicrously slow pace in the
early stages. And the field didn't begin sprinting to the finish until much
later than is usual in these circumstances. So much so that the entire field was
almost in line abreast with a furlong to go.
For a horse to win in anything but a photo in a race run
like this suggests it must be much superior to its rivals. So the fact that
British raider DAR RE MI (25) was able to go a length and a half clear to score
comfortably says a lot for her ability.
Dar Re Mi is a big, good-bodied, strong, classy looking
filly. She got bumped when third in the Musidora but would have won all her
other five starts if a couple of photo finishes had gone the other way. Clearly
she's very useful and improving as she gains experience. I would be wary of
dismissing her chances of beating Zarkava in the Prix Vermeille next time out -
especially if she gets some cut in the ground like she did here.
Trainer John Gosden has previously expressed some concern
about running this heavy-topped filly on a firm surface. If it comes up yielding
or softer for the Prix Vermeille I'll be very interested in the idea of betting
her to defeat Zarkava. She looked a proper Group 1 filly here.
GOLDIKOVA WANTS TEN FURLONGS
GOLDIKOVA is a good-bodied, muscular strong, classy looking
filly that's clearly built for middle distances. But she was able to win the
Group 1 Prix Rothschild over a mile at Deauville thanks to a searching early
pace and some cut in the ground. She moved strongly in third early on and looked
set to win by something like two lengths when kicking clear with less than two
furlongs to go. But she ran around when she was on her own in front out in the
centre of the course and ended up winning by just half a length, though she was
clearly much the best.
Goldikova showed that she stays ten and a half furlongs
well when third to the brilliant Zarkava in the Prix de Diane (French Oaks).
Last time out she cut back to a mile to win a Group 3. And it's easy to get
carried away with the fact that she broke the course record that day. However
the time she ran was just a second quicker than that taken in a minor handicap
on the same card.
Goldikova was aided by a pacemaker in that race who ensured
that the mile was very strongly run. She had a weaker pacemaker here and that
one was burned off at halfway by NATAGORA (38) who was a bit rank and keen
following a two month break.
In future I wouldn't want to bet that Goldikova will be
fortunate enough to get the very strong early pace that she surely needs to be
effective over a trip as short as a mile. She's strengthened up and matured
since her run in the Prix de Diane according to trainer Freddy Head, and that's
certainly reflected in the improved form she showed here. But I think she's
crying out for a step back up to middle distances and will oppose her happily
if, as seems likely, she sticks to a mile for the Prix du Moulin next time out.
I've noted before that the runner-up DARJINA (40) lacks
acceleration. Here she ground away slowly at the winner's lead in the closing
stages while drifting across towards the comfort of the running rail. But she
only got as close as half a length because Goldikova ran green in front.
Darjina is wonderfully consistent. However it's tough for
her to win over a trip as short as a mile given her lack of pace. So I'm going
to continue to oppose her till she steps back up to a longer distance.
Natagora pulled hard going down to the post and went off at
a terrific clip in the race itself, denying Goldikova's pacemaker the lead. Her
stamina enabled her to keep going well enough to finish a decent third but
clearly she'd raced too freely.
Like the first two, it seems to me that Natagora is best
over ten furlongs rather than a mile. Perhaps similar front running tactics will
help her score when she's fitter and running on faster ground in the Moulin. But
I think she's really a ten furlong horse now.
In fact I think there's a good case for changing the
distance as well as the name of what used to be called the Prix d'Astarte. I
reckon the contest would have more prestige as a ten furlong contest. That
distance would certainly have suited the principles better in this year's race.
I was clearly wrong about the possibility of NAHOODH (35)
staying ten furlongs as she clearly ran out of gas in the final furlong here.
The combination of a searching pace, cut in the ground and pulling hard for her
head early on found her out.
Horses often pull for their heads when they're stale
through over-racing. So I suspect jockey Frankie Dettori was right to say that
Nahoodh was feeling the effects of her big win in the Falmouth Stakes. I'd
therefore like to see her rested for at least five weeks before her next start.
Nahoodh would have finished about a length closer if she
didn't have to switch when Darjina hung across her with a furlong to go. But she
herself then started to hang right as she tired (something she's done before).
The cut in the ground clearly did for the chances of both
SABANA PERDIDA (33) and BRISEIDA (13). These fillies have both got a serious
turn of foot. But like almost all such horses they need a fast surface to
produce it.
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