FRANCE AUGUST 2008

 

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GALLAGHER A BETTER PROSPECT THAN BUSHRANGER

GALLAGHER (36) looked set to win the Prix Morny when he came through from mid field to lead with a furlong and a half to run. But he ran a bit green in front, drifting first towards the rail and then in the other direction towards BUSHRANGER (37) when that one came up to dispute the lead. He ended up losing by just half a length and I suspect he'll prove the better horse in the long run.

 

AMERICAIN A FUTURE GROUP 1 WINNER

Remember the huge reputation that Andre Fabre's Spycrawler had after winning a maiden race on his debut last year? Spycrawler managed just one more run when third to Soldier Of Fortune. But his dam's second foal to race AMERICAIN (39) is looking just as good following his half length loss in a red hot Listed race at Deauville over the St Leger trip.

Americain is trained by Fabre just like Spycrawler and moved well in second place in the early stages. He then dropped back slightly to race in a close third for most of the race. However when the pace picked up markedly in the homestraight with two furlongs to run he was flat to the boards. He dropped back to fifth and it looked like he was going to be swallowed up by the field. But in the final 100 yards he began to pick up again very strongly and was really flying in the last fifty yards, finishing best of all. He would actually have got up in a few more strides.

The winner WATAR (39) benefited from a smart ride as his jockey elected to stick to the rail as the others all came wide into the straight in search of what they clearly thought would be better ground. It looks like they were mistaken as Watar was able to surge through with an uninterrupted passage from third last place to lead and then hold off the late rally of Americain.

Americain is a lightly raced horse that has improved markedly since being stepped up to a mile and a half plus. He did run one clunker when unplaced in the Grand Prix de Paris. But that was a rough race where the big field created plenty of traffic problems. Entering the straight Americain was boxed in behind a wall of horses. A gap opened inside the two furlong pole but closed again just as his jockey readied him to take it. By the time Americain had a clear passage it was too late and his jockey allowed him to come home in his own time.

Clearly Americain does have a bit of trouble picking up when the pace accelerates. He's a tall, long striding sort that lengthens rather than quickens. But you could say the same thing about Dylan Thomas and Duke Of Marmalade and it didn't stop them winning a string of top races.

I have my eye on Americain as a likely Group 1 winner and am fantasizing about the prospect of Fabre supplementing him for the St Leger. More likely I suspect is that he will join his stablemates Getaway and Prospect Wells in the Arc by way of the Prix Niel which is shaping up to be a red hot race this year.

The French three year olds are so strong this year that I suspect whatever wins the Prix Niel is going to win the Arc. I wouldn't discount Americain's chances in either race. He's improving and has has shown in the past that he doesn't need marathon trips or soft ground to produce his best form.

My feeling from watching Watar here is that he's probably going to struggle in Group 1 company. He'd lost narrowly to Americain a couple of runs back and I suspect is a bit behind that one.

However Watar has run nothing but big races over eleven furlongs or more. He won his maiden the first time he tried such a trip. Then he was a close second to Americain. Then he ran third to the top class Montmarte when that one clocked a very fast time to take the Prix du Luys. And now he's gone and won this race. If he were mine I'd be taking a long hard look at the Canadian International. That race offers a big prize and tends to be pretty weak these days as it clashes with the Breeders' Cup Turf.

MOUNT HELICON (38) had finished further behind Watar than he did here when fourth to Montmarte in the Prix du Luys. He finished strongly and it looks like he improved for the step up in distance. He's in the Prix Kergorlay and looks an interesting candidate for that race. The trouble is he's trained by Andre Fabre who has two terrific older candidates for the Prix Kergorlay in Coastal Path and Getaway who are undoubtedly the two best French stayers in years.

British raider ENROLLER (38) ran a good race to finish a close fourth. He set a decent gallop but was still able to wind the pace up slowly from halfway. With half a mile to run he quickened sharply and increased his lead to two lengths. However he was unable to hold his three smart rivals at bay in the sprint to the line.

Enroller shows a bit of knee action and clearly needs some cut in the ground. He ran a big race here and would have won the three previous times he's run beyond a mile on going that race times indicate was genuinely yielding or slower but for going under by a head to Chester Vase second All The Aces earlier this year. He's in the St Leger and could place in that race if he got his ground. But he's only a Group 3 horse on this run so I can't see him winning at Doncaster.

 

 

DAR RE MI COULD BEAT ZARKAVA IN VERMEILLE

The Prix Minerve was run at a ludicrously slow pace in the early stages. And the field didn't begin sprinting to the finish until much later than is usual in these circumstances. So much so that the entire field was almost in line abreast with a furlong to go.

For a horse to win in anything but a photo in a race run like this suggests it must be much superior to its rivals. So the fact that British raider DAR RE MI (25) was able to go a length and a half clear to score comfortably says a lot for her ability.

Dar Re Mi is a big, good-bodied, strong, classy looking filly. She got bumped when third in the Musidora but would have won all her other five starts if a couple of photo finishes had gone the other way. Clearly she's very useful and improving as she gains experience. I would be wary of dismissing her chances of beating Zarkava in the Prix Vermeille next time out - especially if she gets some cut in the ground like she did here.

Trainer John Gosden has previously expressed some concern about running this heavy-topped filly on a firm surface. If it comes up yielding or softer for the Prix Vermeille I'll be very interested in the idea of betting her to defeat Zarkava. She looked a proper Group 1 filly here.

 

 

GOLDIKOVA WANTS TEN FURLONGS

GOLDIKOVA is a good-bodied, muscular strong, classy looking filly that's clearly built for middle distances. But she was able to win the Group 1 Prix Rothschild over a mile at Deauville thanks to a searching early pace and some cut in the ground. She moved strongly in third early on and looked set to win by something like two lengths when kicking clear with less than two furlongs to go. But she ran around when she was on her own in front out in the centre of the course and ended up winning by just half a length, though she was clearly much the best.

Goldikova showed that she stays ten and a half furlongs well when third to the brilliant Zarkava in the Prix de Diane (French Oaks). Last time out she cut back to a mile to win a Group 3. And it's easy to get carried away with the fact that she broke the course record that day. However the time she ran was just a second quicker than that taken in a minor handicap on the same card.

Goldikova was aided by a pacemaker in that race who ensured that the mile was very strongly run. She had a weaker pacemaker here and that one was burned off at halfway by NATAGORA (38) who was a bit rank and keen following a two month break.

In future I wouldn't want to bet that Goldikova will be fortunate enough to get the very strong early pace that she surely needs to be effective over a trip as short as a mile. She's strengthened up and matured since her run in the Prix de Diane according to trainer Freddy Head, and that's certainly reflected in the improved form she showed here. But I think she's crying out for a step back up to middle distances and will oppose her happily if, as seems likely, she sticks to a mile for the Prix du Moulin next time out.

I've noted before that the runner-up DARJINA (40) lacks acceleration. Here she ground away slowly at the winner's lead in the closing stages while drifting across towards the comfort of the running rail. But she only got as close as half a length because Goldikova ran green in front.

Darjina is wonderfully consistent. However it's tough for her to win over a trip as short as a mile given her lack of pace. So I'm going to continue to oppose her till she steps back up to a longer distance.

Natagora pulled hard going down to the post and went off at a terrific clip in the race itself, denying Goldikova's pacemaker the lead. Her stamina enabled her to keep going well enough to finish a decent third but clearly she'd raced too freely.

Like the first two, it seems to me that Natagora is best over ten furlongs rather than a mile. Perhaps similar front running tactics will help her score when she's fitter and running on faster ground in the Moulin. But I think she's really a ten furlong horse now.

In fact I think there's a good case for changing the distance as well as the name of what used to be called the Prix d'Astarte. I reckon the contest would have more prestige as a ten furlong contest. That distance would certainly have suited the principles better in this year's race.

I was clearly wrong about the possibility of NAHOODH (35) staying ten furlongs as she clearly ran out of gas in the final furlong here. The combination of a searching pace, cut in the ground and pulling hard for her head early on found her out.

Horses often pull for their heads when they're stale through over-racing. So I suspect jockey Frankie Dettori was right to say that Nahoodh was feeling the effects of her big win in the Falmouth Stakes. I'd therefore like to see her rested for at least five weeks before her next start.

Nahoodh would have finished about a length closer if she didn't have to switch when Darjina hung across her with a furlong to go. But she herself then started to hang right as she tired (something she's done before).

The cut in the ground clearly did for the chances of both SABANA PERDIDA (33) and BRISEIDA (13). These fillies have both got a serious turn of foot. But like almost all such horses they need a fast surface to produce it.