GOLDWAKI RUNS A TERRIFIC ARC TRIAL

Until I saw his run in the Grand Prix de Deauville I'd dismissed GOLDWAKI (38) as a horse with freakishly strong stamina that needed soft ground or a searching pace to be effective at a mile and a half. Now I realise he also has serious class.

The race was not run to suit Goldwaki at all. British raider Monitor Closely set a slow pace and the event turned into a flat out sprint finish up the homestraight.

Goldwaki turned into the straight stone last of the ten runners and had to be manouvered a few times to find a passage as the field compressed and started to sprint for home. I expected to see his run flatten out but instead he weaved his way through and closed in on the leaders with tremendous energy, just missing fourth place and finishing full of run. If they'd gone any sort of pace in the early stages or the ground had been a bit softer I'm sure he'd have won.

I still think Goldwaki would have a terrific chance if he were supplemented for the St Leger because he has such tremendous stamina. But I'm now taking his chances for the Arc very seriously indeed. They're bound to go a whole lot faster in the early stages at Longchamp - especially if Coolmore throw in a couple of pacemakers for Fame And Glory. And if the ground turned up soft on the big day I'd be scared of not having something on him.

The winner MARINOUS (39) started at 22-1, but looking at his form it does seem he's pretty darned useful. He was a close second to the smart Cirrus Des Aigles last year and would have won the last four times he's run on turf if one close finish had gone his way. He has a smart turn of foot and used it to take the lead and then hold off the strong finishing British raider Redwood.

Trainer Freddie head says Marinous is a nervous sort. This probably explains why three of his four wins have come on one of his first two starts following a break.

It's tough to tell exactly how good Marinous is due to the way this race was run. Most likely he can run a bit faster. He looks an interesting contender for the Dubai Sheema Classic when he ships back to Dubai for the Carnival in the Spring.

REDWOOD (39) has run a fair bit faster in the past and no doubt would have gone quicker here if the early pace had allowed. He's a Group 1 horse according to my speed ratings and looks to have a big shot of taking the Canadian International.

SWISS DIVA THE ONE TO BEAT IN ABBAYE IF GROUND IS SLOW ENOUGH

It's almost unheard of for a Group 1 class time to be clocked in a French sprint other than the Abbaye. This is because sprints for horses older than two are rarely run novelty events in France and French breeders aim to produce horses for longer distances.

Nonetheless SWISS DIVA (42) managed to run fast enough to win pretty much any six furlong sprint when taking the Prix de Meutry at Deauville. She looked rather impressive as she burst clear in the last couple of furlongs to leave her rivals for dead.

Swiss Diva is trained and bred in Britain where the early pace of sprints is invariably a good deal stronger than it is in France. Trainer David Elsworth commented on this after the race saying she "proceeded to canter in front - the others let her go, which they wouldn't have done back in England." Indeed, though I couldn't take the sectional times due to the camera angle, it certainly looked like she ran the last three furlongs faster than the first - something almost unheard of in a British Group race for older horses over five or six furlongs.

Clearly Swiss Diva likes the French style of racing. She won a good five furlong Listed race on her only previous start across the Channel. Equally clearly Elsworth is right to say "Swiss Diva is very ground -dependent and she must be able to get her toes in." She's won the last five times she's run on ground that race times suggest was on the slow side of good or on Polytrack - a surface which provides plenty of cushion.

The plan is apparently to take Swiss Diva back to France for the Prix du Petit Couvert, the big local prep for the Abbaye, and then the Abbaye itself. If she gets her ground in those races I wouldn't want to oppose her.

STACELITA HAS DEVELOPED MORE ACCELERATION WITH AGE

If you'd told me a year ago that STACELITA (39) could win a very slow run Group 1 over ten furlongs in a flat out sprint finish on fast ground I'd have had a hard time believing it. She's always been about stamina rather than speed. But there she was last Sunday winning a wild sprint up Deauville's homestraight.

The sprint finish was so fast they covered the last three furlongs a second faster than Lily Of The Valley managed off an even slower early pace in the Group 3 Prix de la Nonette earlier on the card over the same distance.

And you didn't need a stopwatch to see just how fast they were finishing because Celimene and Shalanaya, two horses with phenomenal finishing kicks, were unable to gain any ground.

Yes Stacelita was cleverly ridden by Christophe Soumillon who stole first run on his rivals by kicking into the lead. And she remains a horse that lengthens rather than quickens. But it's clear she's developed a good deal more acceleration as she's strengthened up and matured.

This race turned me from being a critic of Stacelita into a fan. It seems to me that if she can win a race this good off an early gallop so slow she can win pretty much anything.

DREAM AHEAD DOESN'T LOOK A GUINEAS PROSPECT

Over the years I've gone overboard about quite a few giant two year olds that ran exceptionally fast times in sprints. The vast majority of them failed to last beyond sprint trips at three and many of them were hard to keep sound because of their size.

This being so I've learned to temper my enthusiasm about huge two year olds like DREAM AHEAD (37) who won the Prix Morny in good time.

Dream Ahead is a really big colt that's very heavy shouldered and shows knee action. His trainer says he wouldn't want to risk him on firm ground and it's easy to see why.

Research I carried out recently on the body weight of horses published in Hong Kong showed that the heavier a horse is the more likely it is to be a sprinter. Seeing that Dream Ahead's sire was Champion sprinter while his dam's two Group wins were over five furlongs it's hard to argue that he's going to prove an exception.

I can see Dream Ahead winning the Middle Park if he gets genuinely good or slower ground. But I'm going to be increasingly sceptical of his chances over longer distance and on faster ground. As I see it, the idea of him being a Guineas prospect is fanciful.

DECENT MELBOURNE CUP TRIAL BY MANIGHAR

It was probably not a great idea to take AMERICAIN (39) to the land suggested by his name last year. He's a great big, tall long striding stayer that lengthens rather than quickens. As such he cannot have been suited to the short distances available to him in America or the sprint finishes, tight tracks, firm ground and ultra-short homestraights of American turf racing.

However Americain showed that he's as good as ever when winning the Prix Kergorlay on Sunday, kicking on early in the straight and just holding the late rush of MANIGHAR (39) after that one had a little trouble finding a run.

Given the way he floundered in America it was curious to hear that Americain's connections now plan on running him in the Melbourne Cup where he'll meet similar conditions. True, the ground will likely be slower down under than in the states as they aim to provide dead ground through watering at major Australian tracks. The distance will be more suitable too. But he'll still have to cope with a sprint finish off a moderate early pace and that doesn't look to be something he's too good at judged by his physique and form.

Runner up Manighar has a much better turn of foot and used it to very nearly catch Americain here. He'll like the similar ground he'll encounter at Flemington and has acceleration needed to get the job done, so I see him running a whole lot better than Americain if he makes the journey to Australia.

GOLDIKOVA NEEDS TO BE KEPT FRESH FOR THIRD BC MILE BID

Race times reveal that GOLDIKOVA (37) had encountered genuinely yielding or softer ground just twice before she ran in the Jacques le Marois last Sunday. The first time she ran second in an unlisted Conditions race to a moderate rival. The second was when she finished seventh, beaten ten lengths, in the Prix d'Ispahan. Those were her two worst lifetime efforts in a lengthy career.

This being so it's somewhat surprising Goldikova was allowed to run on soft ground in the Marois but not very surprising she got beat, running well below her best to finish second to Makfi.

You can use lines of form to suggest that Goldikova ran somewhere near her best. After all she had her old rival Paco Boy back in third and it was a further six lengths back to the smart Fuisse. However Paco Boy clearly didn't get home in the ground and Fuisse was allowed to come home in his own time in the last furlong, his rider only doing enough to ensure he kept fourth place safe.

If there was any doubt that this was a sub-par effort you need only look at the time of the race. Makfi ran just three fifths of a second faster than the preceding Grand Handicap de Deauville over the same course and distance. Admittedly that's the most valuable handicap in France, but horses make a successful transition from handicaps to Group company in France far less often than they do in Britain and Ireland. And the winner was a three year old filly that was running in claiming company as recently as May.

Last year it was jockey Olivier Peslier who made a mistake with Goldikova in the Marois. For some unaccountable reason he decided to ride her right out in the closing stages to win by six lengths instead of the usual neck or half length she's taken most of her other races by. The result was that she earned the biggest speed rating I've ever given a filly, had a much harder race than she should have and probably lost her next start in the Foret because of this.

Now Goldikova has had a harder race in the Marois than she should have again, one that could knock her off form for quite a while just as the same contest did last year.

If she were mine I wouldn't risk running Goldikova again before she bids for an historic third win in the Breeders' Cup Mile. If she encountered soft ground a second time or a really tough opponent she might well have trouble recovering in time to produce her best in America. The one race I might consider would be the Prix de la Foret as it's only six furlongs and 180 yards. Running in that didn't seem to harm her chances in the Breeders' Cup Mile last year. But if she took in the Prix du Moulin as well I'd be inclined to side against her at Churchill Downs.

The winner MAKFI (39) didn't have to run as fast as he had when taking the Guineas to score. He is a remarkably relaxed runner and just lollops along in his races but always seems to get there - except of course when he was sick at Ascot.

I've long believed that Makfi would stay a mile and a quarter. So I'd like to see him shoot for the QEII over Ascot's very stiff mile next then go for the Champion Stakes.

The one race I'd hate to see Makfi go for is the Breeders' Cup Mile - something his trainer suggested he might do. That race is run around a really tight course and invariably features a sprint finish off a moderate early pace. It suits horses that are effective over seven furlongs in Europe.

Three of Makfi's four wins have been on straight courses. The other was around Fontainebleau’s giant two mile oval. I just don't think he'd be suited to the ultra-tight turf circuit at Churchill which is just seven furlongs in circumference.

I formed a theory a long time ago that due to being below average size, third placed PACO BOY (37) is best in smaller fields. In bigger fields he tends to run into traffic problems.

This theory does seem to be borne out by the facts. Before this loss the only two horses to beat him in thirteen starts in fields of ten or less were Goldikova and Rip Van Winkle.

However there is an alternative theory. This is that Paco Boy has trouble getting a mile when there's cut in the ground or when he has to ship abroad.

Paco Boy has won all five times he's run seven furlongs but just four times out of eleven at a mile or more.

Sprinters run on nervous energy. So it's understandable that Paco Boy was able to win the Prix de la Foret over 6f and 180 yards at Longchamp (the 7f at Longchamp is not a full 7f). But horses can fret away vital stamina when they're asked to ship a long way and this, rather than big fields, may well be why Paco Boy has lost and run below his best all four times he's traveled a mile or nine furlongs overseas. It may also be why his two Group 1 wins over a mile have come in his home county of Berkshire.

Trainer Richard Hannon said after the race that Paco Boy didn't quite get the distance due to the soft ground.

I don't think it would be a great idea to run Paco Boy in the QEII as that race is invariably run at a scorching pace and seems to suit middle distance horses. His best shot of another Group 1 win surely lies in the Prix de la Foret.

Fourth placed FUISSE (32) moved well for most of the race but lacked the pace to go with the first three. His jockey accepted the position fully a furlong out. If he'd ridden him right out he probably could have finished three or four lengths closer without improving his position.

It looks like Fuisse needs to go back up to a mile and a quarter to crack it in Group 1 company. This is understandable. He's well over seventeen hands, has a simply enormous stride and is out of a chasing mare. The Champion Stakes has been his big objective for a while now, and it looks the right one.

FRENCH NAVY SETS SAIL ON PROMISING CAREER

After reading that Exemplify, a half sister to Special Duty had won on her racecourse debut at Deauville and that Criquette Head was talking about running her in the Cheveley Park Stakes and the Marcel Boussac I was naturally very interested. So I fired up my internet browser, surfed to www.chvideo.fr and watched her race.

Initially things looked interesting as Exemplify ran two fifths of a second quicker than they did in the colt's division of the debutante's race. But when I watched her division I was disappointed. She's a great big boat of a horse with absolutely no finishing speed at all. She set a decent pace and just seemed to lumber through the last three furlongs as she put away her rivals with agonising slowness.

I decided to compare her sectional times with that of the colt's division and this is where things got interesting. I found that Exemplify had taken 36.7 seconds to run the last three furlongs while French Navy, the winner of the colt's race, had done so in just 35 seconds flat. That's an enormous difference. In fact, the sectional timing formula I use to adjust my speed ratings tells me that even if Exemplify is several lengths below Listed class FRENCH NAVY (37) must be at least pushing towards Group 1 ability.

French Navy is a good-bodied, mature colt that looks built for middle distances despite the fact his half brother Sea Lord has done so well over a mile in Britain and Ireland. Here he looked a little bit gormless as he ambled along in second place most of the way. but when he was asked to go about his business he soon picked up the leader and easily got the better of him while the pair rapidly drew away from the rest.

Whatever the big British or Irish stables send over for the Grand Criterium they're going to have to go some to beat French Navy.

Runner up SALTO (35) kept on well but was outclassed by the winner. Nonetheless he looks up to pattern class. My bet is he'll be a Group 3 miler.

Third placed FAIRMAN (32) tried to make a run at the first two but was unable to muster the required pace. He looked like a mile and a half plus horse running against milers to me. Indeed he is the first foal of a dam that was twice placed in Group company over the St Leger distance. I see him improving beyond this next year when he gets the chance to go longer.