NATAGORA LOOKS SOMETHING SPECIAL

One of the most striking trends in European racing over the last dozen years or so has been has been the steady disappearance of top class horses from juvenile racing in France.

In the old days two year olds like Arazi used to rack up loads of Group wins and beat top class international competition. But now the vast majority of top French horses don't even race as two year olds. The few that do are usually restricted to a single run in a maiden in October or later.

French two year old racing is now so weak that the vast majority of juvenile events before August are actually claiming contests. If the French do produce a top class juvenile it's invariably late in the season over a mile or more. Sprints are basically novelty events in France. So the French just don't aim to breed youngsters that are competitive with the early season speedballs to be found in Britain and France

Occasionally though a top class juvenile does emerge from shorter races in France, and this seems to be the case with NATAGORA (37) who won last week's Prix Robert Papin in fast time.

I thought Natagora would have little chance against the Italian filly MAGRITTE (36) after looking at the statistics. These showed that foreign-trained two year olds like Magritte which previously placed in Group company had an exceptional record in the Prix Robert Papin since 1993. Such runners had contested the Prix Robert Papin on nine occasions. And the only thing that prevented a clean sweep by the raiders was the brilliant French filly Divine Proportions who just held off the Italian runner Shifting Place in 2004.

Magritte had won all three of her starts by two lengths or more and was very impressive in the Premio Primi Passi at San Siro on her most recent outing. Watch the video of that race (by doing a video search of the race name on Google) and you'll see what I mean. She led all the way in that contest and instantly had all of her rivals in trouble when she kicked on inside the two furlong pole. She just ripped the field apart with the surge she produced and was going further and further away, full of run towards the finish.

When the camera shows a close up of Magritte after the race it's clear she is remarkably mature for a two year old filly. In fact she's so big, strong and muscular she looks more like a three year old colt.

Sure enough the big Italian filly duelled with Natagora all the way as the pair pulled clear of the field. But she couldn't quite contain her French rival close home and went under by three parts of a length.

Magritte is entered in the Lowther Stakes and would be my choice for that race if she lined up. I'd like to see her go for the Chevelely Park Stakes as well. I think she's a seriously good filly.

Unlike Magritte, Natagora is probably going to be effective beyond sprint trips. After all, although her sire ran second in a Group 1 at six furlongs he was by Sunday Silence and won a Group 2 over a mile and placed over longer.

Natagora's dam won over ten furlongs. And the eight wins scored by her progeny other than Natagora were all over nine furlongs or more. In fact two of her other three foals to race have shown decent form over jumps.

As I've mentioned, the only French filly to beat a Group placed foreign runner and win the Prix Robert Papin since 1993 was Divine Proportions. It might well be that Natagora turns out to be as good. Certainly she looks the best prospect we've seen so far for the Prix Marcel Boussac.

I'M NOT CONVINCED BY ZAMBEZI SUN

The slow pace set by the German raider AXXOS (25) ensured that ZAMBEZI SUN (28) ran only a moderate time when winning the Grand Prix de Paris. Indeed he was only three tenths of a second faster than the winner of the next race, a claiming contest, over the same course and distance.

Yes Zambezi Sun produced a tremendous sprint finish to run away from his rivals and record a time of just 11.15 seconds for the final furlong. But I've seen horses finish a fair bit faster than that off a slow pace. So I need convincing that Zambezi Sun is a serious Arc prospect. He only earned a Group 3 class speed rating from me when fourth in the Prix du Jockey Club. And it's worth bearing in mind that in the last 40 years there have been nine three year olds which won the Arc after running in the Prix du Jockey Club. Eight of the nine won the Prix du Jockey Club or finished second in a photo finish (Helissio was the exception, but unlike Zambezi Sun, he'd won a Group 1 before the Jockey Club).