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MONTMARTE IS A SERIOUS HORSE, BUT WILL HE AVOID TRAFFIC IN THE ARC? MONTMARTE (42) produced a strong finish off a strong early pace to take the Prix du Lys in fast time in his prep for the Grand Prix de Paris. However I figured he might well run into traffic problems in the big race itself because he's only a medium sized horse and this seems to cause problems when he has to fight for position in a big field. Montmarte was kept wide throughout when going under in a photo in a thirteen runner maiden first time. And I don't think it was an aversion to the noise of the public address system that caused his flop in the Prix du Jockey Club. Watch the video of that race and you'll see he was caught in traffic early on and then found himself behind a wall of horses entering the straight. His jockey asked him to go for a gap twice. But the first time a horse swerved across him and he eased himself back. The second time the two horses he was trying to squeeze past came together and pushed him back. Thereafter his jockey just dropped his hands and let him come home in his own time in the last furlong. The normal cut off point for horses that need a small field to avoid traffic problems is eleven runners. Montmarte had won both times he's run in fields that small and lost both times he'd run in bigger fields. But of course he went and won the Grand Prix de Paris in a field of thirteen, producing a tremendous, sustained finishing burst to run the last furlong and a half in seventeen seconds flat - a remarkable feat off a searching early pace at a mile and a half. Impressive as Montmarte was in the Grand Prix de Paris I'm not letting go of my theory about him preferring a smaller field so easily. He had a very easy trip in the big race, racing in isolation throughout because the field was stretched right out due to the testing gallop set by the Coolmore pacemakers. Against a bigger field of older and therefore larger horses in the Arc I can see Montmarte once more hitting traffic problems. That said, Montmarte is clearly a very smart horse. He has a short, quick action that's clearly very well suited to fast ground. This is what enabled him to pick up so smartly. In fact he's so pacey I think he'd have no problem reproducing this form over ten furlongs. I studied the race beforehand long and hard and came to the conclusion that it lay between PROSPECT WELLS (40) and MAGADAN (40), the strongest finishers in the Prix du Jockey Club. Both are tall, deep-chested, long striding sorts that looked to be crying out for the step up to a mile and a half. Sure enough Prospect Wells and Magadan were again the strongest finishers, just as they had been in the Prix du Jockey Club. But on the lively ground they just didn't have a prayer of catching the winner. When he ran second to Prix du Jockey Club winner Vision D'Etat in a Listed race Magadan lacked the acceleration to manouver effectively in the sprint finish and ended up badly hampering another horse as he fought for a run (he was subsequently disqualified for this). Then in the Prix du Jockey Club itself he was shuffled back in traffic early, twice having to be taken back off the heels of the other horses. He entered the straight far back and dropped right back to second last after having to be again taken up sharply off the heels of another horse. But then in the closing stages he was switched wide and proceeded to gain ground hand over fist all the way to the line, passing eight horses in the last furlong and a half. Here Magadan again showed the same tremendous stamina, picking up powerfully all the way up the straight. On softer ground I can easily see him turning the form around with the winner in the Arc. Prospect Wells is probably the most likely Arc winner of the top three as he managed to hold Magadan narrowly when that one initially looked like he'd get by him. He looks just as likely to improve on a softer surface too. It could well be that the first three from this race will all be taking on Vision D'Etat in the Prix Niel and then the Arc. My feeling at this stage is that Montmarte will win the Prix Niel if it's run on fast ground as he has so much more pace than the other three and will be well suited by the small field that race attracts. However it could well be a different story in the Arc itself. DOCTOR FREMANTLE (38) was right at the back, twenty lengths off the early pace with Prospect Wells and Magadan early on. He picked up strongly up the straight but twice got denied a run as the other two tail enders blew by him down the wide outside. There's no way he had the acceleration to have finished any better than fourth. But he would have finished a length or so closer but for the trouble. Doctor Fremantle is beginning to look more and more a St Leger sort. He keeps on banging out the same speed rating, which marks him out as Group 2 class for a three year old. But I got the feeling from how well he stayed on here that he'd made a fair bit of improvement over the St Leger distance. CHANGE THE WORLD (38) won the Derby du Midi on his previous start in fast time and again went quick to take fifth place. He nipped through on the inside approaching the final furlong and momentarily held second place till the second, third and fourth all flew past him late. He showed here that he's competitive in this class and is going to be winning another decent race before long. ALESSANDRO VOLTA (38) continues to earn bigger and bigger speed ratings from me as he gains experience. He ran another good race here but lacked the acceleration to go with the principals late on. The good thing was that he showed no steering problems this time even though he was in tight quarters for much of the race. I don't yet know just how good Alessandro Volta will turn out to be because he's clearly still improving. He'd certainly be an interesting candidate for the St Leger and should surely be kept in training next year as he could well improve a good deal at four. CIMA DE TRIOMPHE (38), the Derby Italiano winner, was caught wide all the way, and this didn't seem to suit him, at least early on. He was pulling hard and throwing his head about for the first couple of furlongs despite the strong pace. He settled down though to run a good race, keeping on strongly. I now think I may have been wrong to knock Cima De Triomphe for being a somewhat lucky winner of the Italian Derby. This big, strapping colt will surely be winning or going close in another Group 1 before the season is out.
KANDAHAR RUN GETS INTERESTING FOR CHAMPION STAKES KANDAHAR RUN (38) looked like a ten furlong horse running against milers in the Prix Jean Prat. And I think that is exactly what the situation was. He is a deep-chested, long striding sort that can lengthen rather than quicken. Clearly he needs to go back to ten furlongs. It also looks rather likely that Kandahar Run needs softer ground. He shows a bit of knee action and started to hang progressively worse as soon as they'd made the home turn. By the closing stages he was starting to drift badly and actually impeded third placed RIO DE LA PLATA (39) slightly when that one was making his run. Kandahar Run was always moving smoothly and still managed to gain ground even when he was hanging. It looked like he just wasn't letting himself down properly on the very fast ground. He did win a weak maiden on fast ground. But his other two wins and that close second to the smart Campanologist when unfit all came on ground that was at least on the slow side of good according to my going allowances. The logical thing to do now with Kandahar Run is to rest him till the Autumn and bring him back for the Champion Stakes at Newmarket. If he gets genuinely good or slower ground there he'd be a very interesting candidate back over his proper trip. The Prix Jean Prat was a strange race visually because the winner TAMAYAZ (41), runner up RAVEN'S PASS (40) and third placed Rio De La Plata are all chestnuts with fast ground actions that have the physique mile specialists. Tamayaz won the race. And he did so in very decent time. He's only lost once in five starts when drawn very wide in the French Guineas. Clearly he is a contender for all the big mile races from now on. Raven's Pass finished with a sustained surge to gain plenty of ground late. And, looking at his low slung, daisy-cutting stride had me wondering whether he might not do rather well on dirt. After all his sire was a top class dirt performer, and the best previous foal of his dam was also a pattern winner on dirt. It would be interesting to see the experiment tried. Meanwhile Raven's Pass may well be in need of a rest, seeing that he's a narrow horse whose wins and best runs have all come on one of his first two starts of the season or with a five week plus break thereafter. Rio De La Plata did nothing wrong. Give him a mile and a fast surface and he'll win another Group 1 in due course. |
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