FRANCE JULY 2009

 

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GOLDIKOVA ALMOST UNSTOPPABLE

I've mentioned before that Freddy Head seems to train his top runners to peak for the big Group 1's in the second half of the season. So far he's blanked with all eighteen of his Group 1 runners in June or earlier but won twelve times out of fourty one in Group 1 races from July onwards.

GOLDIKOVA (41) is Head's big name horse right now and she took her record to eight wins out of eight in July or later when winning the Group 1 Prix Rothschild at Deauville.

Goldikova's stablemate Only Green set a scorching pace. When he tired Goldikova kicked on and quickly broke her rivals with a tremendous surge. She only had to be kept up to her work from there and was allowed ease down in the closing stages.

The early pace was so strong and Goldikova had so much in hand she was able to run the final furlong in a remarkably slow 13 seconds yet came within a tenth of a second of the fastest time clocked in the race during the previous quarter century. If she'd been ridden out who knows how fast she would have run.

Goldikova is a really athletic filly with a fantastic turn of foot. I think Head was right to compare her with the brilliant Miesque after the race. That filly won the Breeders' Cup Mile two years in a row - a feat that Goldikova looks to have a huge chance of emulating in a couple of months.

 

DEBUSSY MORE COMPOSED WITHOUT BLINKERS

DEBUSSY (40) pulled too hard for his own good in first time blinkers at Royal Ascot. But he showed just how smart he is with the headgear discarded when making all the running to win the Group 2 Prix Eugene Adam in fast time.

Debussy was always moving well as he set a decent pace in the French race and responded strongly when World Heritage came out of the pack to attack him in the closing stages. He ended up winning by only half a length but was still moving strongly crossing the line and looked to have a bit in hand.

It's hard not to be struck by the tremendous physique of Debussy. He's one of the best looking horses in training and very muscular. I had thought that he'd be a natural for a mile and a half. But it now seems clear he is best over ten furlongs. He has in fact run three times at the trip and won every time.

I've long suspected that Debussy was a Group 1 horse and he came close to proving that by earning one of the biggest speed ratings I've given a three year old this season. Whether he'll prove good enough to win if supplemented for the Juddmonte International is hard to say. But he certainly deserves a crack at some ten furlong Group 1's now.

Runner up WORLD HERITAGE (40) looks much more of a mile and a half horse physically with his long stride and tall physique. Indeed he'd finished a half length second to the smart Claremont over that trip in the Prix du Lys on his previous start. Seeing how well he stayed on it seems clear he would have won if the race had been twelve furlongs rather than ten. And it's now pretty obvious he'll be going the Prix Niel route to the Arc.

The Prix Niel is shaping up to be an unusually hot contest this year, which is only natural seeing that it's such a strong season for three year old middle distance colts. My bet is that whatever wins the big 3YO Arc prep at Longchamp will win the Arc itself. It's not impossible it will be World Heritage as he's lightly raced and keeps on improving.

 

SPECIAL DUTY GETS INTERESTING FOR 1000 GUINEAS

SPECIAL DUTY (37) had run second in fast time to the smart Sorciere in the Listed Prix Yacowlef at Deauville on her racecourse debut. She apparently got knocked coming out of the stalls in that race and trainer Criquette Head feels she would have won but for that. This certainly seems credible following Special Duty's win in fast time in the Prix Robert Papin.

I had thought that the Italian raider Orpen Shadow would outpace everything in the big race as he'd showed tremendous pace to win the Group 3 Premio Primi Passi on his latest start, which was his fourth win in four outings. But Special Duty ranged alongside him right from the start and forced him to go a step faster than he found comfortable. The result was that the Italian horse tired late into fourth while Special Duty kept moving well all the way to the line to win in fast time.

This was a Group 1 class performance from Special Duty and marks her out as an even more serious threat to Canford Cliffs than Sorciere in the upcoming Prix Morny. Indeed I'm now wondering whether Canford Cliffs will have the pace to go with Special Duty in the Morny over six furlongs having seen what she did to Orpen Shadow here.

In the longer term I now have my eye on Special Duty as a live candidate for the 1000 Guineas. Her sire stayed beyond a mile and gets plenty of horses which do the same. And her dam is a half sister to two US Grade 1 winners over nine furlongs.

Special Duty is a decent size for a two year old filly and I can very well see her staying a mile later on. The big clue about whether she'll go to Newmarket for the Guineas will be if she takes up her entry in the Cheveley Park. Criquette Head, like Andre Fabre and other French trainers, believe that it's best to give a horse experience of Newmarket at two before tackling the Guineas.

Two of Criquette Head's three 1000 Guineas winners won the Cheveley Parks Stakes at two. And three of the last four French-trained winners of the Cheveley Park went on to win the fillies' Classic.

Give her physique, pedigree and the form she showed here together with the record of her trainer, it's surprising the bookies haven't marked up Special Duty for the 1000 Guineas. I'd be very tempted by 25-1 or more at this stage.

I suspect ORPEN SHADOW (34) would have finished second rather than fourth if the winner hadn't taken him on. He's better than he showed here and is a close-coupled really pacey sort that looks capable of winning another big sprint for juveniles.

 

CAVALRYMAN DOESN'T LOOK AN ARC WINNER

CAVALRYMAN (40) clocked a solid time when winning the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris. However I think it is more the reputation of the race rather than the form he showed that caused him to shorten so dramatically in the Arc betting.

Cavalryman is a very good looking horse and he beat a decent field. But I didn't like the way he lost ground with five furlongs to run or the fact that he was all out to get by AGE OF AQUARIUS (39), a horse that doesn't look to be quite Group 1 class - though perhaps he might be over the Leger trip.

It seems to me that what this race really did was endorse the form of Cavalryman's stable mate CUTLASS BAY who had beaten him narrowly but comfortably in the Prix Greffulhe.

I imagine Cutlass Bay will be a warm favourite to win his next target, the Grand Prix de Deauville. He should take that race. And if he does I can see him ending up favourite on the PMU when Arc day comes around. So the current 16-1 being offered by the bookies looks rather big for Sheikh Mohammed's unbeaten colt.

BEHETSHAM (36) started favourite for the Grand Prix de Paris. But he clearly lacked the necessary pace to win on the fast ground. He found it hard to manouver or gain ground up the short homestraight despite the fact the searching early gallop should have helped set the race up for a horse with such obvious stamina.

It now seems clear that Behetsham simply must have cut in the ground to be fully effective. Even then he needs to prove that a mile and a half really is his distance. He's built and bred to be more effective over the Leger distance or more. If he were mine I'd be supplementing him for the St Leger and praying for rain rather than going for the Arc.

 

SORCIERE HAS A SHOT AGAINST CANFORD CLIFFS IN MORNY

The Prix Yacowlef at Deauville is Europe's only pattern race for unraced horses. And it validated its status once more when SORCIERE (36) clocked 55.6 seconds, a race record to take this year's renewal.

A close-coupled, smallish filly, Sorciere showed oodles of early pace and had all her rivals in trouble with two furlongs to go. She came clear in the last furlong and it looked rather likely that she could have gone a smidge quicker if pushed.

Trainer Carlos Lerner said after the race "She's not very big but she surely showed some class today. She's got a big engine and the ability to use its full power."

The next target for the flying filly is apparently the Prix Morny where she'll have to take on the brilliant Canford Cliffs. It's a daunting task but she has some sort of shot on my ratings. And if she fails there the Chevelely Park should give her another shot at Group 1 success.