IS HURRICANE RUN REALLY THAT GOOD?

Andre Fabre is pretty sparing in his use of pacemakers. In my experience he only employs one when he's really worried a race could develop into a two furlong sprint which won't suit a red hot favourite that he trains. Results show his worries have been justified because the eight times he's employed a pacemaker in a Group 1 race over the last decade have only produced two victories for his stable. These were Peintre Celebre at 2-5 in the Grand Prix de Paris and Vadawina at 11-10 in the Prix Saint-Alary.

HURRICANE RUN (42) duly lost the Grand Prix de Paris when Fabre employed a pacemaker. But it wasn't a slow early gallop that beat him. The jockeys said the pace was a good one and this is backed up by the time of the race. I reckon Hurricane Run was simply beaten by a better horse in PRIDE (42). And that doesn't mean Pride is particularly brilliant. I reckon Hurricane Run is over-rated. He's never earned a bigger speed rating from me than the one he earned here, and he should have done by now if he were as good as most people suppose.

My speed ratings indicate that the Japanese horse Heart's Cry consistently runs faster than Hurricane Run ever has. So I reckon the betting for the King George is all wrong. I say Hurricane Run is going to get beat again at Ascot.

RAIL LINK BOOKS HIS TICKET FOR THE BIG TIME

You'd think that Andre Fabre had more than enough high class middle distance horses this season. But no, he's gone and added another one with RAIL LINK (39) who took the Group 3 Prix du Lys in seriously good time. Rail Link now rates only a couple of lengths per mile off his stable-mate Visindar who I rate the fastest middle distance three year old colt in Europe.

Rail Link is clearly held in high regard by his connections who regard him as a Group 1 horse, rightly so according to my speed ratings. He must have every chance of taking the Grand Prix de Paris next month over the same course and distance. After that Fabre is going to have to add him to the increasingly complex juggling act he's having to perform with the dozen or more candidates he now has for the top middle distance races.

An interesting footnote about Rail Link is that the only horse to finish in front of him in three completed starts to date (he slipped and fell on his debut) is the German three year old LAURO.

How good is Lauro? This very well bred German colt bolted up by eleven lengths on his racecourse debut from a horse that beat the third by a further 21 lengths. The runner up dotted up next time.

Next time out Lauro was shipped over to France where he won a conditions race beating Rail Link. Then he went back to France again to take a Listed race from Sudan who went on to chase Rail Link home in the Prix du Lys

Lauro is by the very good sire Monsun out of a dam that's a half sister to Group 1 winners Lando and Laroche. He has yet to run any sort of a time. But lines of form are now making him look very much the one to beat in next month's German Derby, where I'd bet on the main danger being one of the battalion of runners Fabre has entered.

GRIGORIEVA IS 'ELECTRIFYING' TOO

GRIGORIEVA (37) is a half sister to the brilliant Electrocutionist. It has yet to be shown whether she has his level of ability, but clearly she's pretty useful. She's now won both her starts this year following her two and a half length win in a mile Listed race at Saint-Cloud. In winning that race she earned the joint biggest speed rating I've given a French three year old filly so far this year. I concede that's not saying a lot as the French 3YO fillies are a weak bunch so far. But it looks likely she has scope for improvement at a longer trip. Judged by her photo she's a pretty tall, gangly filly that looks built for middle distances. She was entered in the Irish Oaks but it looks likely that the Group 3 Prix Chloe next month over nine furlongs will be her next target.

BLUE MONDAY WINS ANOTHER SLOW RUN RACE

BLUE MONDAY (34) managed to run a very decent Group class time at Goodwood last month, despite the early pace being slow. Lines of form made the effort look like a potentially Group 1 performance, but I couldn't tell from the time because the early pace was slow. I was therefore looking forward to seeing what time Blue Monday would clock when stepped up to Group company for the La Coupe at Longchamp. Unfortunately, though he won, the early pace was again slow. He would have run quicker if he hadn't been denied a run till very late, but we're going to have to keep on waiting to see what time he race run when the pace is faster.

Blue Monday has now won all six times he's run less than a mile and a half when he's had a run within the last five weeks. He won the Cambridgeshire last year by two and half lengths off an official mark of 99. The last Cambridgeshire winner to achieve a similar feat was Halling who went on to win five Group 1's.

It's been a long time since Roger Charlton has had a Group class horse that was anything but a sprinter. Despite the fact he's yet to earn a Group 1 speed rating I suspect that Blue Monday has just changed that situation.

BREATH OF LOVE CAN EARN BLACK TYPE

BREATH OF LOVE (36) won a decent seven furlong conditions race at Saint-Cloud by a couple of lengths from a horse that won a Class 1 handicap in Germany last year. But for a half length and a head defeat this promising four year old filly would now have won all of her six outings to date. I'd bet on her winning in Listed company soon.

PRINCE D'ORANGE CAN WIN IN PATTERN COMPANY

Tierce handicaps are invariably strongly contested. Many of them are as good as Listed races. The one that PRINCE D'ORANGE (37) won under a big weight at Longchamp recently certainly falls into this category. He won by a length and a half (a big margin for a Tierce handicap) and clocked a Listed class time in the process. He's already run a very close fourth in a good Listed race a few runs back. After this he'll be pretty much weighted out of handicaps, but that shouldn't be a problem as he's definitely quick enough to win in Listed company at least.

KACHGAI SHOULD WIN A GROUP RACE

KACHGAI (39) clocked a seriously fast time to win a hot little ten furlongs conditions race at Longchamp. The speed rating I awarded him for the race is one of the biggest I've given a three year old so far this season.

Kachgai would now be unbeaten in three starts at middle-distances if he hadn't been caught flat-footed when the pace quickened in a low run race last time and lost by a short head. He's a full brother to the dual Group 1 winner Terre a Terre and is surely going to win in Group company himself before long.

Runner-up AVORIAZ (39) ran a fairly distant fourth to Visindar on his racecourse debut, got closer in another strong race next time and improved again on his third start here. Clearly he is a very progressive colt and undoubtedly the best foal yet produced by his dam Abbatiale who ran second by a head in the Prix de Diane (French Oaks). He too should be winning in Group company soon.

BLIP IS NO ONE-OFF

BLIP (37) beat a whole bunch of Group and Listed winners to take a red hot conditions race over ten furlongs at Compiegne. This was his fourth win in a row and surely signals a step up to pattern class for this very progressive four year old.

FRENCH 3YO FILLIES STILL A WEAK BUNCH

I've been banging on all season about how weak the French three year old fillies are. And the result of the Prix de Diane bears this out. The British runner CONFIDENTIAL LADY (38) beat the locals pretty handily.

It has not yet been decided where Confidential Lady goes from here. Her trainer, Sir Mark Prescott was not keen on the idea of stepping her up to a mile and a half. That sounds smart to me as it would likely involve her taking on Galatee or Alexandrova, who I rate a fair bit faster. Still, this was a decent run from Confidential Lady, one that gives her a decent shot in next month's Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh or the Nassau stakes at Goodwood.

NOTHING WRONG WITH DARSI

DARSI (40) has an unusual profile for a Prix du Jockey Club winner on two counts. First, he is the only winner of the race in the last 26 years to have previously run at a provincial track (i.e. not Chantilly, Deauville, Longchamp, Maisons-Laffitte, Saint-Cloud or the now defunct Evry). Secondly he missed all the Derby trials, which is almost equally rare. He managed to win the race nonetheless despite his connections concerns that he might not be suited by the cut back in distance from a mile and a half.

Darsi only won narrowly in a bunch finish, almost certainly because there wasn't much of an early pace. He still managed to lower the course record thanks to the fast ground and might well have gone a tad quicker if the early gallop had been faster. Nonetheless he ran a Group 1 time for a three year old this early in the year in a race that was always going to be tough to win given the tremendous strength in depth of the middle distance three year old colts in France this year.

Trainer Alain Royer Dupre says that Darsi has been slow to mature which explains his rapid recent progress. The horse's next outing will probably be the Grand Prix de Paris or the Irish Derby according to this owner the Aga Khan. I'm betting that his connections will opt for the Irish race as it is more likely to provide the sort of stamina test Darsi needs. Of course his owner also has Visindar to call on, but he showed when running 1-2 with Dalakhani and Alamshar in 2003 that he's not averse to running two of his best horses in the Irish Derby.

Statistically the runner-up BEST NAME (39) was a good thing. He perfectly matched the profile of past winners, having won a middle distance pattern race last time, never having run in the provinces or less than ten furlongs at three. And he almost did the business for the statistical geeks with a whirlwind finish that saw him gain six lengths on the winner in the final furlong. His jockey felt that if he'd had a better draw he wouldn't have been forced to come wide for his run and might have prevailed.

Best Name still has a very progressive look about him. He ran second by a head in a Group 3 on his sole start at two, dotted up on his seasonal debut and produced this tremendous effort on only his third lifetime start. I see that he too is in the Irish Derby, and the way he finished suggests that he'd have a decent chance of turning the form around at the Curragh.

ARRAS (39) was strongly fancied, having won his previous two starts impressively and representing the almost unstoppable Andre Fabre. He went well to finish a close third. His jockey felt that with more experience his mount wouldn't have pulled so hard against the relatively slow early pace and might have gone even closer. Clearly Arras is a smart horse and becomes the third contender for top middle distance honours owned by Baron and Baroness von Ullman (Shirocco and Manduro being the other two).

ART DECO (39) maintained the good record of British-trained Group winners in the race by finishing a good fourth. His jockey, Frankie Dettori says he got caught a bit flat-footed when the pace picked up and would have done better with more cut in the ground. His performance certainly ranks the form of IVY CREEK who would surely have beaten Art Deco with a clear run in the Dee Stakes.

NUMIDE (39) lost six lengths at the start and then finished like 'a ball out of a gun' according to Paris Turf to run fifth by a length. But I wouldn't go running away with the idea that he was an unlucky loser. Numide always runs like this. His trainer, Jean-Claude Rouget said before the race "Numide is a delicate horse. He needs to wait in a race and does not like contact with other horses, but he is able to finish very well." Indeed Numide has a history of losing a lot of ground at the start and then finishing like a rocket. This sort of running style has served him well in small fields previously but it's rarely successful in a fifteen runner race like the Prix du Jockey Club. In fact, considering Numide's aversion to crowding I'm inclined to think he's always going to have a problem in big fields in Group company. But I'd be worried about opposing him in any race where there are only a handful of runners.

IRISH WELLS (39) upheld the form of the Prix la Force by keeping on well to finish a close sixth. He's now run two big races in a row and will surely take a Group race soon.

ABUNDANCE IS A SMART SPRINTER

There aren't many fast sprinters in France, primarily because so few sprint races are staged that horses with speed are mostly tried over longer trips. However there is now one very interesting sprinter in France in the form of ABUNDANCE (39).

Abundance experienced the same sort of trouble most three year olds have against older horses in pattern sprints last year. But with another year under her belt it looks like she's ready to start winning in Listed and Group company. She blasted home by six lengths in very fast time to take an amateur rider's race under ten stone at Chantilly from a decent field. I should note that better horses contest amateur rider's races in France than is the norm in Britain and Ireland. Usually there are at least a couple of horses with pattern form and this race was no exception.

So far Abundance has won all four sprints that she's contested below pattern class. My ratings say she won't continue to draw a blank in the top races for much longer. I can even see her having a good chance in the Prix Abbaye.

POLICY MAKER CAN STILL WIN A GROUP 1

POLICY MAKER (40) must be a frustrating horse to own. He has any amount of ability but is so hard to manouver that he hoovers up all the trouble that's going in a race. His ideal circumstances are a race which features a small field and a long homestraight. The combination ensures he has a good chance of avoiding getting boxed in as he so often does and then having a long enough stretch in which to make his bid for glory. He got exactly these circumstances in the Grand Prix de Chantilly and duly won from a strong field.

Policy Maker has earned borderline Group 1 class speed ratings from me on several occasions and did so again here. If he is to finally gain a win at the highest level I can see three possibilities; the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, the Gran Premio del Jockey Club and the Canadian International. All three races are run on big, galloping courses with long homestraights. The one I'd be shooting for is the Canadian race as it now clashes with the Breeders' Cup Turf and is likely to be more weakly contested as a result.

SALUTINO (39) ran a good race to take second. He has run a bit below form both times that he's encountered slow run races in France but has never failed to run well off a stronger gallop such as he had here. Like most German-breds his strong suit seems to be stamina rather than speed.

VEGA'S LORD SHOULD WIN AGAIN

Christian von der Recke is a unique trainer. No other handler on the planet, as far as I'm aware ships their horses to more countries than he does. A couple of years ago he told me that the previous season he had run horses at 64 racecourses in 13 different countries. He added to his amazing record by saddling VEGA'S LORD (37) to win in Listed class time at Longchamp.

Vega's Lord has already won in Listed company and looks a good bet to earn more black type off this run. Long term he looks a rather interesting juvenile hurdles prospect, seeing that his dam's two previous foals were both sent over timber.