ZARKAVA LOOKS TOUGH TO BEAT IN ARC

I know it's early days yet. But the way that ZARKAVA (41) won the Prix de Diane and the time she recorded suggest strongly to me that she's going to be tough to beat in the Arc.

Held up off a searching early pace, Zarkava powered through from the back to mow down her rivals up the straight. She was running away from them from the time she hit the front a furlong and a half out. And she was finishing so strongly that despite her jockey taking the time to blow kisses to the crowd and not riding her out she still clocked just 12.1 seconds for the last furlong. This, together with her powerful physique, suggests that Zarkava will have no problem staying the extra furlong and a half of the Arc.

I found it most interesting that trainer Alain de Royer-Dupre said after the race that he didn't want to take Zarkava to Deauville or run her over a mile and a half before the Arc. As I see it this leaves him with just two alternatives for her comeback race around late August or early September. Either he cuts her back to a mile and goes for the Moulin. Or, and this is surely preferable, he keeps her at a middle-distance and supplements her for the Irish Champion Stakes.

I can't recall an Arc winner ever prepping over a mile, so seeing that there are no other logical targets run in the right time frame, it seems to me Zarkava is very likely to be running at Leopardstown in what could well turn out to be the race of the season.

I should note that there does look to be one chink in Zarkava's armour and this is hinted at by the fact her connections chose to employ a pacemaker here. She's a great big, strong sort who lengthens rather than quickens. Clearly she'd be vulnerable to a horse with a serious turn of foot in a slow run race. No doubt the Coolmore boys will bear this in mind if she lines up for the Irish Champion Stakes. Then again if their big candidate turns out to be Duke Of Marmalade they'll be wanting a strong early pace too.

I agree with jockey Johnny Murtagh that runner-up GAGNOA (39) would have preferred softer ground. She had her head slightly up in the air and didn't seem to be letting herself down completely when making her run with the winner. Her previous two wins in pattern company had come on much slower surfaces.

However I'm not convinced that Gagnoa is the slam dunk to stay the mile and a half of the Irish Oaks that her connections seem to suppose. After watching the video of the race I got the strong impression that ten furlongs was her best distance. She's a light-framed sort that lacks the deep chest and strong physique most mile and a half horses possess. This makes sense as her sire was a ten furlong horse and everything vaguely decent on the dam's side specialized at that trip too.

Third placed GOLDIKOVA (38) moved well for a long way before getting outrun by the first two in the closing stages. I got the impression that she and the fourth placed PROVISO (38) would have done a bit better if they hadn't stuck so close to what was a searching early pace. Both fillies look likely to win something big this season.

ARCADIA'S ANGLE SHOWS VERSATILITY

When he won a Listed race at Chantilly ARCADIA'S ANGLE (27) came from off a searching early pace. When he won the Group 3 Prix Paul de Moussac he made all the running, setting a slow pace and then gradually winding it up from the entrance to the straight. He was really flying in the final furlong, which I clocked at 11.65 seconds. Nonetheless the second, third and fourth were all gaining ground on him.

I'm not all sure that the connections of Arcadia's Angle are doing the right thing in switching him from the St James' Palace Stakes to the Prix Jean Prat. The Royal Ascot race is quite often a soft Group 1. But the new shortened version of the Prix Jean Prat has been a hot contest in the first two years it's been run. And that seems certain to be the case again this year.

I've little doubt that the winner of the Prix Jean Prat will turn out to be one of the first four home in the Prix Paul de Moussac. It looked a very strong race to me. Lines of form indicate I would have given the winner a rating of 39 if the gallop had been strong throughout. The thing I'm less sure about is whether the Prix Jean Prat winner will turn out to be Arcadia's Angle.

The one that most interests me most is the runner-up SENLIS (26) who earned a good speed rating from me when winning the Premio Parioli (Italian 2000 Guineas). He had to weave his way through traffic to deliver his challenge here. In the last fifty yards he was finishing like a rocket and only went under by half a length. I suspect he would have won in a truly run race and will be very interested in his chances if he lines up in the Prix Jean Prat.

Senlis failed in his bid to become the first winner of the Premio Parioli since the great Nearco in 1938 to go on to win the Derby Italiano. But he did finish seventh in a huge field that day. That run plus the way he finished here suggests that he should get ten furlongs at least.

Third placed YORKTOWN (26) seemed least happy with the sprint finish as he lacked the acceleration to peg back the winner. He tried and kept on strongly before going down narrowly. He's a very handsome, muscular, classy looking sort who has the build of a ten furlong horse to my eye. His pedigree points the same way as his dam was a ten furlong winner and most of the best progeny of his sire, Red Ransom, have been best at trips beyond a mile.

MURCIELAGO (26) came from stone last entering the straight to finish a close fourth. He's still a maiden but finished a length second to Yorktown two runs back and ran a head second in another Group 3 last time out. I got the impression from watching him here that he is actually best delivering a sprint finish off a slow early pace on fast ground. So I suspect he's not going to prove quite as good as the three that beat him. Nonetheless he should take a Listed or Group 3 before the season is out.

ZAMBEZI SUN GETS INTERESTING FOR ARC

I thought that ZAMBEZI SUN (17) was a good thing for the Grand Prix de Chantilly following his promising seasonal debut in the Prix Ganay. But he just got outsprinted by the other Group 1 winner in the race DOCTOR DINO (17).

Zambezi Sun loobed along in fourth place early on behind a pace that was little more than a hack canter. The pace was slowly wound up from five furlongs out but it was only at the two furlong pole that the field really started running. From there it was a wild dash for the line.

Zambezi Sun actually got his head in front initially. But he looked rather a sitting duck as Doctor Dino came out of the pack. Zambezi Sun has a big, long stride which shows a fair bit of knee action. Clearly he's built to lengthen rather than quicken. Doctor Dino's stride is much shorter and it almost looked as though he was putting in two strides for every one of Zambezi Sun in the final furlong.

Doctor Dino soon got by but Zambezi Sun kept on strongly to only get done by half a length.

It's easy to see Doctor Dino as rather boring because he's always banging away in these big races, winning or placing. But let's not forget he won or placed in seven of the world's biggest middle-distances races in a row before this run. He's a remarkably consistent and versatile horse.

Doctor Dino's two biggest wins came in Hong Kong and America where they go slow then sprint in turf races beyond a mile. So it wasn't surprising he proved to have the best turn of foot off the slow early pace here. Whether he'd last home in a truly run race at a mile and a half I'm not sure. But that's probably not going to be an issue with him as long as he avoids that long a trip in Britain and Japan where they go a good gallop early and have races he could run in.

Zambezi Sun is clearly going to be harder to place than Doctor Dino as he almost certainly needs a decent early pace or soft ground to produce his best. The races where he's most likely to get it are all in the Autumn. Namely the Arc, the Canadian International and the Japan Cup.

If he were mine I'd be inclined to put Zambezi Sun away until the Autumn, give him a prep run in the Prix Niel and then shoot for all three of the races I've just mentioned.

DON'T UNDER-ESTIMATE VISION D'ETAT

After replaying the video of the Prix du Jockey Club a few times I noticed something rather odd about the winner VISION D'ETAT (40). Although he was under pressure from some way out and only won narrowly he actually passed the post with his ears pricked and was full of running. He rallied when runner-up FAMOUS NAME (40) charged at him late and definitely looked to be the best horse in the race.

I'm not sure that I'd like to bet Vision D'Etat over this short a distance in future. He's jump bred on the dam's side and has the build of a national hunt store horse. He won this race I suspect largely because of the searching early pace. Normally he'd need a mile and a half to show his best.

Vision D'Etat has now won all five of his starts and is well up to the standard for winners of the Prix du Jockey Club. I'll almost certainly bet something against him when he comes back in the Prix Niel in September because the small field and likely slow pace of that race could easily catch him out. But in the Arc itself he has to be a major player.

Famous Name showed that, despite his trainer's concerns, he can handle a firm surface by finishing very strongly from far back up the straight. He's a versatile horse, having previously scored very well over a mile off a slow pace on much softer ground in the Leopardstown Derby Trial. Quite where he goes from here I don't know but he's clearly going to be a contender wherever his connections choose to run him.

Personally, if he were mine, I'd be inclined to shoot for the Breeders' Cup Turf with Famous Name. He's shown that he can cope with the slow pace and sprint finish of US racing. And going that route would avoid a clash with his stablemate Casual Conquest. I have a rather strong feeling that Casual Conquest is going to be a really dominant force in the three year old division this year, so any way of avoiding him sounds like a smart idea.

NATAGORA (39) ran a terrific race to take third place. And I rather wonder if she might not have actually won if her rider, Frankie Dettori, had realized earlier that the pacemakers Blue Bresil and Mayweather were going too fast. He stuck with them till halfway, at which point he seemed to sense the situation and eased off on Natagora. As soon as he did Blue Bresil and Mayweather scooted six lengths clear as she fell back to third.

Natagora came through to lead briefly halfway up the straight. But her earlier exertions told and she could only chug on for third.

I can see why Frankie rode Natagora the way he did. She doesn't have a great deal of acceleration and he was trying to steal a march on the closers. It was just unfortunate that he tried the tactic in a race that was freakishly fast run for a French contest.

I was surprised to hear Natagora's connections say after the race that she would now be cut back to a mile for her next start in the Prix D'Astarte. I'd have thought they'd be thinking of stepping her up in distance instead of down and supplementing her for the Irish or German Oaks.

One thing I know about horses is that they are always at their most effective at the outermost limits of their stamina. Over shorter trips they can get outpaced. Over longer distances they don't last home unless the early pace is slow. Here Natagora showed that she stays at least ten and a half furlongs. I've little doubt that she'd stay the eleven furlongs of the German Oaks or twelve of the Irish version seeing how she kept on so well after sticking too close to what looked like too strong a pace here.

I guess there's always time to step Natagora back up in distance again if, as I suspect, she gets done for pace in the Prix D'Astarte. But by then all the longer Group 1 fillies races will include older horses as well, and the older fillies look a fierce bunch this year.

The last half furlong of this ten and a half furlong race seemed to find out HIGH ROCK (38). He moved up to dispute the lead before the furlong pole but was tiring visibly in the last 100 yards. I noted before that his pedigree suggests ten furlongs is his limit. This run seemed to confirm that. Back over that distance or perhaps a bit shorter I still see High Rock as a future Group 1 winner. He has a serious turn of foot. Here he was ridden prominently, presumably to avoid the traffic (he's only medium-sized). But he did pull a bit early on, so perhaps he will do better when dropped out more in future and seeing less daylight.

Much the strongest finisher of the unplaced horses was PROSPECT WELLS (33) who got into traffic problems before unleashing a sustained run all the way up the straight. He's a big, tall, long striding sort that's always looked likely to need a mile and a half to run his best. He will get it on his next outing when he'll be running in the Grand Prix de Paris where I suspect he'll win.

If there was an Arc winner in this race other than the winner it will surely be Prospect Wells. In fact I would be inclined to get some nice odds about him for the Arc before he runs in the Grand Prix de Paris.

MARCHAND D'OR AND EQUIANO LOOKING GOOD FOR ROYAL ASCOT

In my experience you need to be careful of taking the times of French sprints at face value. They go a slower pace in the early stages than they do in Britain. So often they end up running a few ticks slower than they would have on the other side of the Channel.

The way that MARCHAND D'OR (40) and EQUIANO (40) pulled clear so quickly of the rest as they dueled in the closing stages of the Prix du Gros Chene tells me this was one of those occasions. I strongly suspect they'd have earned speed ratings of 42 from me in a British contest.

Equiano has now earned speed ratings of 39 or 40 from me in all three of his starts this year. That's more big ratings than any three year old anywhere in Europe. I thought he was a great bet at 17-1 here following his smart win last time. And he certainly looked the winner as he scooted into the lead over a furlong out, showing that economical, daisy-cutting stride of his. But he couldn't quite hold the older horse close home.

This was the first time Equiano has lost in four tries on fast ground. He looks a seriously good sprinter to me and must have a real shot of giving Spain its first Royal Ascot winner in the Kings Stand Stakes next month.

Marchand D'Or suffered from quarter cracks last year but is apparently over the problem now. He's also strengthened up a bit according to his trainer. This is the norm for sprinters who invariably hit their peak as five year olds, at which time they often develop a bit more pace and can cut back to shorter trips, as Marchand D'Or did here.

Marchand D'Or is already a multiple Group 1 winner. I see him going very well in the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot.