SARAFINA: AT LAST A TOP CLASS 3YO FILLY

I can stop complaining about the lack of top class three year old fillies this year now that the Prix de Diane has been run. The winner SARAFINA (40) clocked a seriously fast time and looks capable of being competitive in top races against males.

Held up off the searching early pace, Sarafina came through strongly up the straight and won rather impressively, still traveling strongly as they crossed the line.

With plenty of stamina on her dam's side I don't think there's much doubt that Sarafina will stay the mile and a half in the Prix Vermeille. At this stage she looks much the most likely winner of that race. In fact she only needs to improve a little to have a real shot in the Arc on this run.

ZAGORA (36) is only a small filly, but she ran a big race. She raced in fourth place till making a bold move to surge forward rapidly and go nearly two lengths clear just after the quarter mile pole. Then she started tiring, rolling around as she did so, and faded rather quickly in the last furlong to finish fifth.

It's tempting to say Zagora didn't stay. But I think she tired because she was asked to make such a huge move after sticking a little too close to an overly fast early pace. She still clocked a decent final time and is capable of better than this - as she showed when running disqualified French Guineas winner Liliside to a head back in April.

Sarafina's stablemate ROSANARA (39) came out of the pack to stay on for second without threatening the winner. She ought to stay the Vermeille trip too and provides her stable with a powerful tag team to tackle the top fillies' races.

SANDBAR (38) is a big, rangy filly that lengthens rather than quickens. She stayed on well for third. The strong pace clearly brought her stamina into play. I'd prefer her over longer distances or on softer ground.

DELUXE (37) had run Sarafina to half a length in the Prix Saint-Alary but had to extricate herself from a barging match after the two furlong pole before keeping o to take fourth here. Her amazing dam Hasili has produced six Group 1 winners from her seven previous foals to race (the exception ran only once). This lightly raced filly has already gone close to making it seven out of eight.

STACELITA BEST WITH CUT IN THE GROUND

After seeing how badly she got outpaced in the Prix d'Ispahan I was rather dubious of the chance of STACELITA (39) in the La Coupe at Longchamp over less than a furlong further.

I failed to consider that Stacelita is by that huge influence for soft ground Monsun and established her early reputation with a series of smart performances in mud. The yielding ground was therefore much more in her favour than the firm surface she encountered in the Prix d'Ispahan.

Stacelita was in fact able to show so much speed on the softer surface that she led all the way, quickened it up from the front approaching the straight and was never in danger of defeat.

Clearly Stacelita is as good as ever. She may not be good enough to beat males in Group 1 company but she equaled her best ever speed rating here, once more running fast enough to win a top level race against fillies.

Stacelita was able to win on what race times show was a firm surface in last year's Prix de Diane. However that race was run at a strong early pace which counteracted her lack of acceleration. It remains the only time she's passed the post first in four tries on fast ground. She's won all five times she's encountered yielding, soft or heavy.

Trainer Jean-Claude Rouget says that Stacelita's ultimate objective this year is the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf. I imagine this is why he's cut her back to shorter trips here. It may also be why he ran her in the La Coupe around the relatively tight Moyenne (middle) course at Longchamp and suggested the Nassau Stakes as her next likely target. Clearly he wants to get her used to running around tight courses at distances short of a mile and a half.

I have to say that if she were mine this is not the direction I'd be going with Stacelita. The Nassau Stakes and the Filly & Mare Turf will most likely be run on fast ground. Unless the early pace is very strong (which is highly unlikely in the American race) I think we'll see Stacelita getting done for a turn of foot in the closing stages. I'd be shooting for the Vermeille and the Yorkshire Oaks over twelve furlongs with her and seeking out some late season Group 1 run on soft ground to try for one last shot at beating males.

My idea of the winner in the La Coupe was third placed RUSSIAN CROSS (38). And he certainly looked to have a big chance when surging forward to join Stacelita halfway up the straight. The trouble is he has a fast ground action and wasn't able to find the acceleration that he's previously shown on quicker surfaces. In addition he only seems to just get the ten furlongs which probably explains why he lost ground in the closing strides.

Russian Cross showed major improvement when stepped up to ten furlongs as a three year old. He won the first two times. The he finished second in the Prix du Prince d'Orange - which I rated one of the fastest 3YO races of the year - an idea validated by the subsequent Group 1 win and smart form of the horse that beat him, Never On Sunday.

Russian Cross has the physique of an out and out ten furlong horse to my eye. And his owner is convinced he doesn't last a mile and a half. Indeed it looks like he didn't even quite last the stiff mile and a quarter on a straight course in the Champion Stakes, where he finished fourth to New Approach after getting hampered. The way he tired very late here confirms that idea.

I don't know why Russian Cross missed last season as his trainer Andre Fabre has a policy of not talking to the French press. But he couldn't have kept him on as a five year old if he felt he couldn't fulfill the tremendous potential he showed at three.

Russian Cross certainly looked well on the way back when winning a decent conditions race over an inadequate mile last time. He's a big gross horse that surely needed his two previous comeback runs. Now that he's fitter and running over the right trip I can readily see him winning something decent on faster ground.

The obvious big target for Russian Cross is surely the Prix Dollar at Longchamp’s Arc meeting. The distance of that race is quarter of a furlong shy of ten furlongs which would suit him perfectly. If he wins that I'd be looking at the Hong Kong Cup. Meanwhile I'd like to see him running next month in the Grosser Dallmayr Preis at Munich where the tight turns and generally slow early pace of German racing shouldn't tax his stamina.

Finally I have to mention the performance of STARLISH (35). This deep chested, long striding horse lobbed along in last place but simply lacked the acceleration to improve. He has the build of a mile and a half horse and two of his three siblings won over two miles. Weirdly though, the only time he's run beyond ten and a half furlongs in 21 lifetime starts was in last year's Prix Hocquart where he threw the race away by diving across the track when spotting the stable exit. His short head loss there was his best ever performance on my ratings. When he finally gets the chance to go back up in distance, especially on soft ground, I will be very interested in his chances.

Fabre says Lope de Vega is too high strung to travel this year. So I can see why he would want to go back to a mile. There’s basically nothing left for him in France this year at Group 1 level over ten furlongs. He either goes up to twelve furlongs or down to a mile and the longer distance is almost certainly beyond him.

Smart as he is, it could well be that Lope de Vega won’t be winning again this year. If he can’t go abroad or run anything but a mile locally he’s going to find himself up against brilliant specialist milers like Paco Boy, Goldikova and Canford Cliffs who will be very hard to beat.

Then again, Fabre is no dummy. He’ll probably manage to surprise me and find something for Lope de Vega to win.

For big French races Equidia show computer-generated lines across the track which enable you to tell exactly when the horses have crossed a certain point. By using these I was able to determine how fast the first six across the line ran the last three hundred metres in the Prix du Jockey Club. Here is what I found:

Behkabad 19.4 seconds

Viscount Nelson 19.5

Lumineux 19.9

Pain Perdu 19.9

Planteur 20.0

Lope De Vega 20.1

As you can see, the winner Lope de Vega was tiring after the strong gallop. In fact he backed up even further to run the final furlong in 13.3 seconds. That suggests he was getting really tired and would not have been able to hold on if the race had been even half a furlong longer. Behkabad, the strongest finisher, clocked just 12.4 seconds for the last furlong. There’s little question he would have won had that extra half furlong been available.

BEHKABAD (39) was my idea of the winner after his cheeky success in the Prix de Guiche. But there was always a question about whether he’d find the ten and a half furlongs a little too short in a top class race. His dam was a two mile Group 1 performer and his sibling Behestam would probably stay that far. I let myself be persuaded by the pace Behkabad had shown over nine furlongs at Group 3 level in the Prix de Guiche that he’d be okay over ten and a half in a Group 1.

In the Prix de Guiche Behkabad made all the running. This time around he was drawn 13 of 22, so his jockey decided to drop him in rather than use up his speed in a mad dash for the rail before the first turn was reached. Unfortunately this led to Behkabad turning into the straight a long way behind and with a wall of horses blocking his way. He had to be swing wide to make his run and took a bump from a rival in the process. He picked up strongly from there, especially in the final furlong.

Clearly Behkabad now needs to go up to a mile and a half. From a punting perspective the race I’ve love to see him in next would be the Irish Derby. I can see him starting at something like 10-1 for that race if Workforce lines up and having a huge chance. However he’d need to be supplemented and is far more likely to run in the Grand Prix de Paris for which he already holds an entry.

I know that Behkabad’s half brother Behestam started hot favourite for the Grand Prix de Paris and ran unplaced last year after he had finished strong to take fourth in the Prix du Jockey Club, just as Behkabad has just done. But Behestam didn’t have the pace of Behkabad, probably because he had a more stamina-laden sire. Besides Behestam could still prove he’s effective in top races over twelve furlongs now he’s due to race in Hong Kong under his new name of Carthage.

In any event, the one thing I feel confident of, having watched all this year’s top races is that Behkabad is going to prove the top three year old over a mile and a half. I have reservations about all the other big name three year olds but Behkabad has impressed me tremendously. I fully expect to see him take the Grand Prix de Paris, followed by the Prix Niel and see him as the one they’ll all have to beat in the Arc. The 25-1 Coral are offering about him for that race looks insanely big to me.

Runner up PLANTEUR (40) is clearly a smart horse in his own right. But I’m a little concerned that like the other horses which filled the first three places, he was in the first four throughout and benefited from the traffic problems others experienced in the big field by being held up. Still this was another big run by him and it establishes him as one of the top middle distance three year olds.

If he were mine I’d be inclined to supplement Planteur for the Irish Derby or King George as it’s going to be tough for him to win a Group 1 this year back home against the incredibly strong crop of three year olds France he produced this year.

Third placed PAIN PERDU (39) clearly has a similar level of ability. He was always prominent and kept on well. But for two narrow defeats by Simon De Montfort he would have won his previous four starts. He’s at least borderline Group 1 and is unlucky to have been born into such a strong crop. If he flounders at home this year in top races I’d bear him in mind for something abroad or better still for next year when rivals like the winner and Behkabad will most likely have retired.

Pain Perdu’s run suggests that Simon De Montfort would have at least placed had his connections not been cuckered into withdrawing him by the misleading official going report. I recognize it’s hard to keep track of the large number of top class middle distance three year old colts France has produced this year. But Simon de Montfort is surely worth following since he’s now been transferred to Britain where the opposition is almost certainly weaker.

VISCOUNT NELSON (39) did best of the foreign raiders by taking fifth. He didn’t come from as far back as Behkabad but nearly finished as strongly as that one.

This run confirmed that Viscount Nelson is more a middle distance horse than a miler. I don’t know where he goes next, but this run would give him a big shot in the King Edward VII stakes. He’d also be rather interesting if he took up his entry in the Eclipse.

NIGHT MAGIC BOUNCES BACK

NIGHT MAGIC (38) earned a speed rating of 41 from me for her win in the German Oaks last season. She didn’t have to run that fast to win and eleven furlong Group 2 at Hoppegarten. She just came through from the back to readily go away from her rivals and win easing up with a fair bit in hand.

Night Magic was apparently in season when running below form in Italy in Italy last month. She won really well here, and one thing I liked about her performance is that she was able to weave her way through the field from the back instead of charging to the front like she did in the Oaks.

I got the impression that Night Magic appreciated the easier turns and relatively long homestraight of Germany’s most galloping track. This augurs well for her chances outside Germany later on this term where I imagine the Prix Vermeille will be a big target. She’d also be very interesting in the Yorkshire Oaks in which I’d have her top on my ratings at this stage.

Right now Night Magic’s next target is the Grosser Dallmayr Preis at Munich on July 25^{th. She should be tough to beat there as she may well be the best horse in Germany right now.}

BEHKABAD PROBABLY THE BEST MIDDLE DISTANCE 3YO IN EUROPE

The French three year olds seem to be a little bit ahead of their Irish and British counterparts this year. They've already won the 1000 and 2000 Guineas. And now it looks like they could have won the Derby as well if only BEHKABAD (40) were going to Epsom rather than staying at home for the Prix du Jockey Club.

Behkabad made all the running at a good pace then quickened up nicely to hold the late rush of No Risk At All in the Prix de Guiche, only having to be shaken up and given a couple of cracks with the whip to do so. He was still moving smooth and strong passing the line.

Behkabad was probably the best two year old to run in France last year. He won all three of his starts while showing a serious turn of foot for a horse that's built and bred to go a mile and a half. His dam was a two mile Group 1 performer and her sole previous foal was Behestam who won over a mile and a half but always looked like he was wanting longer (he also won over 1m 5f)

On his seasonal debut over an inadequate mile Behkabad was not fully fit and was given an easy time of things in the closing stages when finishing third. That run clearly brought him on a good deal.

Behkabad has a serious turn of foot as well as abundant stamina. He's a versatile, relaxed horse that can make his own running or come from behind. He can act on any ground and any sort of course and is clearly very effective over nine furlongs despite being bred for longer.

This run establishes Behkabad as the best middle distance three year old in Europe. It's astonishing that the bookies don't list him in their ante-post market for the Arc. He really ought to be a warm favourite for that race. Certainly he's going to be tough to beat in the Prix du Jockey Club. I can readily see him going unbeaten for the rest of the season.

NO RISK AT ALL (40) justified his trainer's high opinion of him. But even though his jockey lost his whip and he only lost by a neck it was clear the winner was superior. No Risk At All rushed up to him down the outside but Behkabad simply accelerated again to hold him off rather comfortably.

On his previous start No Risk At All came through with a very good run from last place to score by a couple of lengths in a one mile Listed race at Saint-Cloud on his seasonal debut after moving well throughout.

He is a somewhat narrow sort that's only medium sized so I have to wonder how well he'll do when he has to fight his way though the bigger field he'll face in the Prix du Jockey Club.

I'm sure he'll stay longer since his dam was a two and a half mile chaser that's produced several smart jumpers including Nickname.

The other really good performance in the race came from FORETELLER (38) who came from far back to finish fourth.

When you look at his pedigree you could argue that Foreteller is not bred to go beyond a mile. His sire is the brilliant miler Dansili and his dam the Cheveley Park winner Prophecy whose previous foals all won over nine furlongs or less.

However when you look at Foreteller's physique it's a totally different story. He's a strong, good-bodied, classy looking sort with a big stride that shows a bit of knee action. He's built to go a mile and a half and certainly looked like a twelve furlong horse running against milers and ten furlong runners here.

Foreteller ran unplaced on his first two starts as a juvenile but improved markedly to take his lat two. He improved again to take a Listed race over this nine furlong trip up the straight at Maisons-Laffitte on his seasonal debut last time.

In that race he sat a couple of lengths off the leader and only had to be pushed out with hands and heels to quickly go by the leader and win by a length on the closing stages. He was still moving strongly and smoothly as they crossed the line. The time was a length or two per mile off the norm for Listed class but it looked like he could have gone a length or two faster if pushed.

Aver the race his trainer David Smaga said "He confirmed here his two successes of 2009. I have been working him more seriously since the ground has become good. I hesitated between the Prix de Fontainebleau and this Listed race, and I think that I made the right choice. I will now aim him for the Prix de Guiche.”

Jockey Stephane Pasquier added Pasquier "It was an excellent seasonal debut and he applied himself well and accelerated well at the end of the race."

Actually Smaga was wrong to say it was good ground for Foreteller's win last time. That was the official description, but race times for the five races up the straight that day indicate it was yielding, as it was for Foreteller's last and best performance at two.

Foreteller's stride pattern tells me he may actually want cut in the ground to produce his best. Certainly he will improve over longer distances and looks a good prospect for the Grand Prix de Paris over a mile and a half. If they go a searching early pace he'd also have a shot in the Prix du Jockey Club.