YIKES! VALIXIR IS FAST

I gave VALIXIR (44) a big write up here after his seasonal debut at Newmarket, and he's just gone and validated my high opinion of him by blasting home in the Prix D'Ispahan in exceptionally fast time.

Valixir is a tad quirky. But if he can be covered up till late he's a very hard horse to beat and must now rank as a serious threat to win the Eclipse Stakes and any other big mile and a quarter race that he contests.

VADAWINA LOOKING GOOD FOR THE PRIX DE DIANE

VADAWINA (38) flew home by four lengths in the Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary and remains unbeaten in three starts to date. She'll be at short odds for the Prix de Diane in a few weeks time but it's hard to think what is going to stop her winning that race. This run marks Vadawina out as one of the best three year olds of either sex that we've seen this season.

APSIS IS VERY SMART

APSIS (41) is a horse with a big reputation. But until now he hasn't earned a big speed rating from me. He corrected that omission with a seriously impressive win from last year's German 2,000 Guineas runner-up Lazio at Longchamp. This run establishes Apsis as a solid Group 1 prospect. It also suggests that he may well be best at shorter trips. After all he has now won all four times that he's run less than ten furlongs and lost both times he's gone ten furlongs. Certainly a mile and a half seems to be a problem for Apsis as he tired badly the only time he tried that far.

Right now Apsis holds no Group race entries but I imagine his trainer Andre Fabre has some of the big mile races in mind for his charge, perhaps some ten furlong ones too. Wherever he ends up running him I'd accord Apsis a good deal of respect. He's still lightly raced and has any amount of potential.

The good performance of Lazio (38) confirms something I've been thinking for some time - namely that there is a remarkably strong population of milers right now in Germany. In fact Germany has had so many good milers over the past couple of years that they keep beating each other in races back home. As a result their individual form doesn't look so good. But if you see any German horse shipping in for a big mile race any time soon I'd urge you to give it serious consideration.

AUTUMN GLORY CAN ACT ON FIRM GROUND

I note with interest that AUTUMN GLORY (42) was scratched from last Saturday's Lockinge stakes. A lot of people are going to presume this is because his trainer, Geoff Wragg, once stated that his charge prefers cut in the ground and it was very firm at Newbury. In fact Wragg himself conceded that Autumn Glory could go on firm ground when he was runner up to the brilliant MARTILLO (42) in the recent Prix du Muguet at Saint-Cloud.

The official going was good to soft at Saint-Cloud for the Muguet but my going allowance indicates the ground was less than a second a mile slower than it was at Newbury last Saturday, In other words it was genuinely firm.

My read of Autumn Glory is that it is undulations rather than firm ground that he can't handle. After all he has now run unplaced all three times he's run on tracks with significant undulations Ascot and Salisbury). On flatter courses Autumn Glory had won six times out of six at a mile plus before his half length loss to Martillo. He improved his best speed rating yet again and confirm what I suggested earlier in the season, namely that he is a Group 1 horse.

MARTILLO (42) is a very smart miler, and this run confirmed his trainer's view that he is at his best early in the year. My read of Martillo's form is that he is only effective before the middle of August, is best at a mile or less on turf around a turn (I don't think he quite gets the mile on a straight course). In these circumstances he has now won seven times out of eight tries, with his sole loss being that unlucky third in the St James' Palace Stakes.

Martillo has been one of the top European milers for three years now and richly deserves a Group 1 win. I'm not quite sure where he can be placed to win at the top level however as the Jaques Le Marois is run on straight courses, he's not been entered for the Queen Anne and all the other big mile races are in the Autumn when he's not likely to be at his best.

WHIPPER (41) ran close to his best to finish a close third in the Muguet. He's not that bad on fast ground but on genuinely soft or heavy he's pretty much unstoppable. I'd be interested in his chances in the Queen Anne even on fast ground. If it rained I'd be wary of opposing him.

ELOPA CAN WIN A GROUP 1

ELOPA (39) was one of the top three year old fillies of last season and she confirmed that she has trained on when winning the Prix Allez France in fast time at Chantilly.

There are a whole bunch of nice middle distance races for older fillies in Europe now. Elopa is almost certainly going to run in several of them. She's won off a slow pace and a fast one, on soft ground and firm and would still be unbeaten in four starts but for one unlucky narrow defeat.

Just how good Elopa really is only time will tell. Right now she looks awfully promising and has already run fast enough to be competitive in Group 1 races for fillies like the Prix L'Opera,

PINSON AND BLUE KITE ARE PATTERN CLASS

There are very few maiden races run on the big Paris tracks. Those that are staged tend to be red hot contests. In fact Andre Fabre once said that it takes a Group 3 class horse to win a Paris circuit maiden. PINSON (36) and BLUE KITE (36) certainly look likely to prove Fabre right after fighting out the finish of a recent maiden at Maisons-Laffitte. They pulled six lengths clear of the third and clocked a time that would win many Group 3 contests for three year olds at this stage of the season.

Pinson is by the brilliant ten furlong runner Halling and is the first foal of a mare that stayed nine furlongs. So there seems to be fair prospects that he'll stay a bit longer than the mile he ran over here. Blue KIte on the other hand is a brother to Bluemamba, a speedy filly who won the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches but ran respectably later on in Group 1 company over six and a half furlongs. Neither horse holds any fancy entries right now, but I'd bet on both earning black type before long.