BEO BOUNCES

I've noted before that racing professionals and pundits all SAY they believe in 'the bounce', the American concept that a horse needs a rest to recover from a really fast run, especially when the fast run followed a lay-off. However, when push comes to shove none of them ever seem to act on the belief. Trainers run horses back quickly following a fast run and tipsters pick them in large numbers.

When I saw FINSCEAL BEO (38) entered to run in the French 1000 Guineas just seven days after her amazingly fast win in the first fillies’ classic at Newmarket the words of an American speed ratings expert came to mind. I could here him saying ‘she ought to 'bounce to the moon' as he always does in such situations.

I decided to carry out a test on Raceform Interactive to test what had happened previously with fillies that had run as fast as Finsceal Beo had at Newmarket. I found that since Raceform started making their speed ratings to their current formula they had have given 25 three year old fillies which ran again ratings within two points as fast as Finsceal Beo’s at seven furlongs plus in Britain (I don't trust their foreign ratings). Fourteen of these 25 fillies returned to the races less than five weeks or 35 days after their fast runs. Not one of the fourteen scored. Eleven of the fillies were rested for five weeks plus and four of them won.

You couldn't ask for a stronger bounce candidate than a three year old filly that has just run her fastest ever race following a seven month lay-off. And sure enough Finsceal Beo ran below her best to get beaten narrowly.

I know that other people will explain her loss differently. But for me, the clock tells the story of Finsceal Beo’s Longchamp loss. She simply hadn’t quite recovered from her Newmarket exertions.

Take nothing away from the winner DARJINA (38) though. She showed serious stamina and class to mount a sustained late run and get up on the line.

I suspect that if the early pace had been even a bit slower Darjina would not have won. She’s the first foal of a mile and a half winner and looked to take this race on stamina to my eye. This being so I imagine her connections will opt for the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) rather than the Coronation Stakes (she’s also in the Irish Oaks later on).

For those of you interested in statistics, Darjina was the twenty seventh French 1000 Guineas winner in the last twenty nine years that had previously reached the first three in a Listed or Group race that same season (Finsceal Beo was one of only three other runners to match this profile).

ASTRONOMER ROYAL NOT SO HOT

Fifteen of the last sixteen French trained winners of the French 2000 Guineas were horses that had run that same season and won last time out. With no locally trained runner matching that description, this year’s renewal looked ripe for the picking by a foreign starter. Sure enough Irish-trained runners filled the first four places.

However, this did not look like a vintage renewal of the race, and the clock suggests that it wasn’t. Colts on average run three fifths of a second per mile faster than fillies in the same class of race. This being so the fact that the winner Astronomer Royal (38) only ran a tenth of a second faster in the French 2000 Guineas than Darjina managed in the 1000 suggests that he’s really not that hot.

I rather wonder if the runner-up CREACHADOIR (38) won’t prove better over seven furlongs, the distance he won over on his previous start. He made a big move to burst clear with a furlong and a half to run before his stride shortened noticeably in the closing stages.

CHAMPS ELYSEES COULD WELL BE A GROUP 1 HORSE

CHAMPS ELYSEES (39) clocked a fast time to win Longchamp’s Prix Hedouville. This lightly raced four year old has some smart form to his name but clearly improved for the step up to 12 furlongs here. After cruising through the early stages he picked up to lead a furlong out and was pulling away from a very determined runner-up close home.

Champs Elysees was one of the remarkably large number of smart middle-distance three year old colts to run in France last season. Now that most of the best of his generation have retired to stud he looks set to shine. He could well be a Group 1 horse and we’ll get the chance to find out when he contests the Grand Prix de Chantilly next time out.

I note with interest that Fabre has entered Champs Elysees in the Arc along with a bunch of other smart four year olds he trains, notably Rail Link and Visindar. With the three year olds looking a weak bunch this year I‘d say this is going to be one of those rare seasons when a four year old takes the Arc. And the man with the best chance of pulling it off with a four year old is clearly Andre Fabre.

Runner-up MISTER CONWAY (38) was the top horse in Greece back in 2005. He’s been running very well in France recently, taking four of his last eight starts and deserves to add a Group 3 to the half dozen Listed races he’s already taken.

HOW GOOD IS ECHOES ROCK?

ECHOES ROCK (39), like Champs Elysees, is another member of Fabre’s brilliant bunch of three year old colts from last year to stay in training. He won a good middle distance conditions race impressively on the same card as Champs Elysees and is clearly a very useful horse.

It’s tough to say just how good Echoes Rock is as he would have won all four of his starts to date but for a couple of very narrow and arguably unlucky defeats. Certainly he’s one of the fastest members of Fabre’s German division that he’s acquired from the top German stud farms in recent years. He looks likely to be winning in Group company soon and might well prove competitive in the top ten furlong races.

ANTON CHEKHOV STEALS THE HOCQUART

Anton Chekhov (16) was allowed to set a ludicrously slow pace in the Prix Hocquart. Even so his goose looked cooked as ROYAL AND REGAL (16) cruised up to him with a quarter of a mile to race. At that point, and all the way to the line, Anton Chekhov was under strong pressure. But the last two furlongs were a flat out sprint and it turned out that Anton Chekhov had more speed than his rival. He was able to hold on narrowly.

If you watch the video of the race it’s hard to believe that Royal And Regal got beat. But the fact is he is a long striding sort who just can’t have been suited by the sprint to the line. In a more strongly run race I feel sure he’ll prove superior to the winner. Indeed he put up a tremendous run for a Fabre-trained three year old colt having his seasonal debut as they invariably come on for the run as much as Aiden O’Brien’s do. If there was a Prix du Jockey Club winner in this race it was surely Royal And Regal.

PRIOR WARNING IS A USEFUL SPRINTER

France specializes in producing middle distance horses. Sprint races for older horses are rarely run. So it’s hardly surprising that there have been so few good French sprinters over the years.

However the occasional fast French sprinter does emerge and it looks like PRIOR WARNING (38) is one of them. The three year old won a very decent Listed six furlong race at Chantilly in a time that makes him a threat to beat the British raiders that normally mop up the few pattern races for older horses run over sprint trips in France.

Prior Warning has won four of the five sprints he’s contested so far. His sole loss came when he ran second to the smart US Ranger in the Prix Djebel. He showed improved form here, probably because of the cut back from seven furlongs to six.