NEVER ON SUNDAY DESERVES TO BE FAVOURITE FOR PRINCE OF WALES

After his terrific but troubled run in the Prix d'Harcourt I reckoned that NEVER ON SUNDAY (41) was the top horse in France. His win in the Prix d'Ispahan confirmed my opinion. He came with a very determined run to get by runner up GRIS DE GRIS (40) and win going away.

The most impressive part of Never On Sunday's success was that he was clearly not suited to the soft ground. He has a fast ground action and showed his best previous form on a firm surface. But, like a lot of truly top class horses, Never On Sunday usually manages to find a way to win. In fact if he hadn't encountered heavy ground in one race and traffic problems in two others Never On Sunday may well have won all ten of his starts to date.

I've little doubt that Never On Sunday can run a length or two faster than this on a quicker surface. As I see it he deserves to be favourite for his next target, the Prince Of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot. But, thanks to the widespread prejudice against foreign form, I doubt that he will be.

I confess I thought the connections of runner up Gris De Gris were crazy to run him in the Prix d'Ispahan rather than the Lockinge the previous day. The Lockinge was a weaker race. But more importantly it wasn't run on a right-handed track.

Gris De Gris doesn't like right-handed courses according to his trainer. And this is borne out by his record. He's won six times out of twelve on left-handed courses. But his only success in eleven starts on right-handed tracks came in a very weak maiden race over 5.5f on his racecourse debut at Salon-de-Provence. That was way back in 2006. He’s lost all ten times he's run on right handed courses since. However his trainer clearly knew something I didn't as Gris De Gris ran a big race to chase home the winner.

It's interesting to note that Gris De Gris won the last time he ran beyond a mile ten runs back. He won over ten furlongs that day and clearly got this nine and a quarter furlongs very well because the early pace was very fast indeed.

The early pace was so fast because CELEBRISSIME (37) and CURTAIN CALL (33) took each other on right from the start, going rather too fast for the distance and the ground.

I think the connections of Celebrissime may well have a re-think about using him as just a pacemaker after this run. He ran a tremendous race to lead till a furlong out seeing that he was going too fast to last home. Clearly he's a useful performer when there's cut in the ground.

Prior to this run Celebrissime lost all seven times he ran on good or faster ground but would have won all three of his starts on yielding or softer if one short head photo had gone the other way. He's already won a Listed race and might well be able to win something better if allowed to run for himself.

Until recently Curtain Call has been running over a mile and a half, and doing quite well. He's clearly very effective on soft ground at ten furlongs, as he showed when winning the Mooresbridge Stakes. But here the combination of a cut back to nine and a quarter furlongs and the duel for the lead he had with Celebrissime were simply too much. His rival pressed him to go sprinting speed for the first seven furlongs so it's hardly surprising he had nothing left at the finish over a trip that we now know is short of his best.

That said, I liked the idea of running Curtain Call over a shorter trip here. You have to experiment to find a horse's most favourable circumstances. And knowing that Curtain Call can't do nine furlongs this early in the season is a useful item of information for his trainer, Luca Cumani, to have.

It looks like Cumani is right to say he shouldn't have persevered with Curtain Call on fast ground last season. He's now finished out of the first four all four times he's run on going quicker than yielding.

Last time out Curtain Call impressed me when beating the Prix du Jockey Club runner up Famous Name three lengths in the Mooresbridge Stakes at the Curragh. It's impossible for me to put a proper speed rating on the race as they crawled in the early stages then sprinted up the straight. But it's remarkable that Curtain Call was able to come home a full four seconds faster up the straight than admittedly moderate handicappers did later on the card, This shows what a huge move he made when kicking on entering the straight.

Curtain Call ran green on his first couple of starts. But he then split New Approach and Henrythenavigator when running second in a Group 3 on soft ground and went on to win all his other three subsequent starts prior to this one when he had cut in the ground.

I rather suspect that Curtain Call's trainer, Luca Cumani, is in for a terrific year as he has what look to be three proper Group 1 horses in Curtain Call, Cima De Triomphe and Presvis.

I've knocked Curtain Call in the past. But he looked and ran like a Group 1 horse last time, beating a Group 1 horse into second. When he goes back up to a longer trip and gets his ground I can see him taking a race at the top level.

GOLDIKOVA (32) was a warm order to win this race. And on the face of it her short odds seemed justified. After all she'd won three Group 1's in a row, culminating in the Breeders' Cup Mile before tackling the Prix d'Ispahan. But there were a couple of very big question marks about her here. Namely her fitness and stamina.

Last year Goldikova lost an unlisted conditions race on her seasonal debut to a rather ordinary filly called Azabara. In fact Goldikova lost her first three starts. So far she's won six out of six from July onwards and lost four out of four earlier in the year.

After she'd won her first Group 1 in August trainer Freddy Head said Goldikova had improved significantly both physically and mentally from her third start. This is the norm for Freddy Head's best horses. He tends to train them to peak for the big Group 1's in the second half of the season. So far he's blanked with all seventeen of his Group 1 runners in June or earlier but won ten times out of thirty nine in Group 1 races from July onwards.

The question of stamina was equally worrying. Previously I thought that Goldikova might well want longer than a mile. But looking at her physique and the way she runs more closely, I was not at all sure before this race. The pace she showed to win the Breeders' Cup Mile was pretty astonishing. The way she finished out that race was like a sprinter. She's muscular and close coupled too, with rather short legs and a very quick stride, again just like a sprinter.

Goldikova's sire was champion sprinter and her dam never won beyond a mile. Goldikova was tried over a trip longer than a mile just once before the Prix d'Ispahan. This was in the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) where she cruised in third place before kicking into the lead with a furlong and a half to go. She tired from there to get beat four and a half lengths into third. And she would have been fourth in a few more strides.

Since Indian Skimmer won the Prix d'Ispahan back in 1989 there have been 24 fillies that have contested it. They all lost. Eight started favourite. And in recent years we've seen smart fillies such as Six Perfections, Darjina and Banks Hill all go off at odds on in the Prix d’Ispahan and get beaten. So there was plenty of precedent for Goldikova's sub-par run.

With major doubts about her fitness and stamina it has to count as one the biggest own goals of the season by Goldikova's connections to put in a pacemaker for her here in the form of Celebrissime. She chased that one and Curtain Call hard, running a close third till emptying in the closing stages. If the pacemaker hadn't been in the race and the gallop had been slower who knows what would have happened. But she might well have lasted home and maybe even won.

I wouldn't go writing off Goldikova after this race. Her record and that of her trainer suggests she may well need another run or two before hitting her peak. But by the end of the season I'd bet on her being back at Santa Anita with every chance of taking the Breeders' Cup Mile for a second time.

TAZEEZ (21) clocked a solid Group 2 class time to win the Earl Of Sefton Stakes in good style on his previous start. But he stopped three furlongs out to finish tailed off last here, adding more weight to my theory that he dislikes traveling due to his nervous disposition.

So far Tazeez has won four of the five times he's run at his home track Newmarket or just up the road at Yarmouth. But he has yet to win in six starts at more distant courses. And the further he's had to travel to the races the worse he's run.

BANNABY THE ONE TO BEAT IN GOLD CUP

Last year at this time I suggested that the Spanish horse Equiano had a serious chance in the Kings Stand Stakes at Ascot following a couple of very fast runs in France. Sure enough he went on to win the shortest Group 1 at Royal Ascot for his trainer Mauricio Delcher Sanchez. Now it looks like the same trainer has serious prospects of taking the longest Group 1 at Royal Ascot this year with BANNABY (40) who has just run a seriously good trial for the race in France.

Bannaby has of course already won a two and a half mile Group 1, the Prix du Cadran. This year his whole campaign is being geared around a bid for the Ascot Gold Cup.

Bannaby won his seasonal debut over an inadequate ten furlongs in Madrid last month. His final run before the Gold Cup in the Group 2 Vicomtesse Vigier convinces me that he's the one they'll all have to beat at Royal Ascot.

In a race that developed into a sprint finish, Bannaby lobbed along in second last place most of the way, moving better than anything else. He still moved best when the sprint to the line began too. Halfway up the straight he surged forward, getting within a length of the first two. But as he did so you could see he was having trouble getting through the soft ground. He has a pronounced daisy-cutting action that's made for a much faster surface. Sure enough, just as he got close to the leading pair he became unbalanced and rolled towards the rail. He straightened up again close home but by then it was too late and his jockey clearly had Ascot on his mind as he didn't give him a hard time.

It's most unusual for the ground to be soft for the Gold Cup. If it turns up good to firm as usual then Bannaby will surely have a major chance. He's a much more well proportioned, pacier sort than most stayers and can clearly produce a serious turn of foot. I like his chances of scoring another win at the Royal meeting for Spain.

The winner AMERICAIN (41) is a big, strong, tall horse, with a long stride and little acceleration. He invariably gets done for a turn of foot on faster ground. But he's a smart stayer in mud, as he showed when grinding out a hard fought win on soft ground here where he pressed the pace and won a long duel to the line with runner up PONTILLISTE (40).

If Americain hadn't gone under by half a length at Deauville last year when the winning jockey cleverly switched his mount to what turned out to be faster ground on the rail, Americain would now have won all three times he's gone a mile and a half plus on soft ground.

What was impressive about Americain's win here is that there was a sprint finish but he was able to cope with it. They came home 0.6 of a second quicker over the last three furlongs than in the Prix Saint Alary over a 5.5f shorter trip in the next race. Clearly when there's mud it doesn't matter if they go fast or slow. Americain can keep up regardless.

The ground would almost certainly be too fast for Americain in the Ascot Gold Cup, so I can understand why his connections don't plan on making the trip. But any time the heavens open Americain is clearly going to be hard to beat. His obvious target has to be the Prix du Cadran. He'll be the one to beat there if the going is soft.

Runner up Pointilliste has improved markedly since stepping up to longer trips and would have been winning for the fourth time in his last five starts but for bumping into such a smart winner. He's a lot more versatile as to ground conditions than the winner and is therefore going to be a lot easier to place. However he is a typical stayer in being a tall, long striding, rather one-paced sort. So I suspect the Group 1 prizes are going to elude him. Group 1 straying races tend to go to horses that can not only stay but also have a turn of foot. Horses like Bannaby.

COASTAL PATH (28) went out like a light halfway up the straight, losing over twenty lengths in less than two furlongs. His jockey blamed the soft ground. But I think it was a combination of the distance and the ground that really found him out.

Coastal Path is a brilliant horse over the St Leger distance. But he clearly failed to get the two and a half miles when a distant third in the Ascot Gold Cup last year. Here he failed to last half a furlong short of two miles due to the stamina-sapping surface.

I've said before that I'd like to see Coastal Path given a shot at a twelve furlong Group 1. His first two wins were over that distance. And he showed he's very effective over the trip when second to the Group 1 placed Magadan on his seasonal debut, where he used his huge stride to make up a dozen lengths up the straight.

Coastal Path is a handsome, well bred horse that will surely become a popular stallion if he can only get the Group 1 win he's clearly capable of. In my opinion he's got a far greater chance of winning at the top level in the Coronation Cup than the Ascot Gold Cup. So I'm hoping he takes up his engagement in the big Epsom race and sidesteps Royal Ascot.

STACELITA A SMART FILLY IN MUD

The appropriately named Monsun was one of the best mudlarks of all time. So it's no big surprise that when he was mated with another soft ground performer, Soignee, he should produce another runner that clearly prefers cut in the ground in STACELITA (39).

Stacelita is now unbeaten in four starts following her runaway win in the Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary at Longchamp where she clocked a time that's proper Group 1 class for a three year old filly.

As was the case in her previous starts, Stacelita was sent to the front to make it a test of stamina. She just kept going like the Energizer Bunny and ended up powering away from her rivals up the straight to score by six lengths.

Stacelita is a leggy, narrow, immature filly that nonetheless does possess a big stride. She won her sole start at two by two lengths, a nine furlong provincial maiden. She stepped up in class to win a ten furlong Conditions race by the same margin at Toulouse on her seasonal debut. Then she produced a seriously good performance to win a 10.5f Listed race at Saint-Cloud on her last start before the Prix Saint-Alary.

In that race Stacelita set a pace that was only a little slow for the class. But she then picked up in tremendous fashion when asked to go and win her race up the straight. She stretched clear, showing her big stride and steadily powered further and further ahead to win by four lengths, full of running.

Stacelita ran the last three furlongs that day 2.3 seconds faster than they did in a decent seven furlong handicap on the same card. I can't find any way to interpret the performance on the clock to say it was anything other than a very good Group 1 performance by a three year old filly. Only a high class horse can finish so much faster than a sprinter over a trip that's so much longer. Stacelita confirmed that with her performance in the Prix Saint-Alary.

I was somewhat surprised to hear that Stacelita's connections now plan to go for the Prix de Diane with their filly. Her trainer, Jeane Claude-Rouget attributed her big run to the soft ground. And he's kept her to such going for all of her four starts to date. But race times indicate that only one renewal of the Prix de Diane in five has been run on soft ground.

Only one horse has achieved the Prix Saint-Alary/Prix de Diane double in the last 21 years. Unless we get an unseasonably wet spell before the big race I can't see Stacelita pulling it off. Her stride, her pedigree, her form and her trainer all say she wants it softer than it's likely to be at Chantilly.

If she were mine I'd be inclined to lay Stacelita off until the Prix Vermeille in September. With her German sire and dam and the stamina she's shown she'd be a slam dunk to get the longer trip there. And she'd have a far better chance of getting the cut in the ground she needs. In addition the four month break would give her time to grow.

That said, I have to say that I have a strong suspicion that if she were stepped up to a mile and a half Stacelita might well be able to produce her best on good ground. So maybe it would be an idea to supplement her for the Irish Oaks.

CUTLASS BAY SHOULD GO FOR GRAND PRIX DE PARIS NOT PRIX DU JOCKEY CLUB

CUTLASS BAY (38) was a narrow but impressive winner of the Group 2 Prix Greffulhe, a race that developed into a flat out sprint over the last two furlongs.

Sheikh Mohammed's colt won the sprint with a series of three surges. He was a bit green according to jockey Frankie Dettori and this no doubt explains why he didn't sustain his effort in one big push. Still he was moving really well and going away at the finish. It looked to me he was much the best horse in the race.

Cutlass Bay won a provincial maiden on his only start at two by four lengths in a race where the field was spread out like the runners at the end of a jumps race. The runner up went on to win three of his subsequent five outings.

That race was over fifty five yards shy of ten furlongs. On his three year old debut Cutlass Bay was stepped up to the full ten furlongs for a good Conditions race at Fontainebleau.

Fontainebleau used to be the top track in France before the PMU was formed to fund the big Paris circuit courses and Deauville. And it still has a higher status than any other provincial course, partly because of its history and the fact that it's the biggest track in France, being two miles in circumference with a half mile homestraight.

Cutlass Bay had a bit of trouble laying up at Fontainebleau because the early pace was strong. He had to be niggled along most of the way. And when they started the run up the straight he had to be ridden vigorously and at first appeared to be going nowhere. However he eventually got going and moved up on the outside to challenge. When he got to the front he started to run green, his head came up and he began to hung towards the rail. In the last furlong though he straightened up and showed great energy to win a sustained duel with the runner up as they quickly powered six lengths clear of their pursuers.

Cutlass Bay is a mature, deep chested, long striding, muscular, well proportioned, really classy looking colt that's built and bred for every inch of a mile and a half (he's a full brother to the King Edward VII winner Boscobel). He was full of running at the finish at Fontainebleau, winning from a horse that went on to take a decent race at Saint-Cloud next time out. He impressed me again at Saint-Cloud.

It looks pretty obvious that the ten furlongs of the Prix Greffulhe would have been on the short side for Cutlass Bay if the going hadn't been soft. The talk of supplementing him for the Prix du Jockey Club looks way off base to me. He's surely an out and out mile and a half horse. If he's going to be supplemented for anything it should be for the Derby or preferably the Irish Derby since the more galloping course at the Curragh would suit him better. Better still why not simply take up his existing arrangement in the Grand Prix de Paris.

There's no rush with Cutlass Bay. He's not a horse that needs to be hustled down the Classic route in the hope that he can snatch a place. He looks and runs like a proper Group 1 horse that's going to be a threat to whatever wins the Derby and the Prix du Jockey Club. So I think he should pursue the Rail Link route of the Grand Prix de Paris, the Prix Neil and then the Arc.

SILVER FROST WINS BUT CAN HE STAY LONGER?

SILVER FROST (40) clocked a very decent time to take the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas), coming with a long sustained run down the outside to take the race in good style.

The way that Silver Frost kept going so strongly off a very strong pace brings the issue of the Prix du Jockey Club back into focus for the smart grey. You can read his pedigree and his physique either way. But the manner in which he was able to sustain his finishing effort here now tips me back into slightly favouring him as a stayer for the ten and a half furlong race. It would certainly be a shame if he turned out to stay the trip later on and wasn't given a chance to win a second Classic.

Silver Frost is only a medium sized colt. Runner up LE HAVRE (38) is bigger but ended up having more traffic problems than the winner. He had to sit and suffer till a gap opened up late on the rail while Silver Frost got first run on him. He picked up nicely but too late when finally getting clear and is obviously a smart miler on fast ground. Indeed I've given him a rating as big as the winner previously.

NAAQOOS (38) has previously been allowed to bowl along in front and use his huge stride. Here he simply hated being restrained by his jockey who was clearly worried about trying to match strides the pacemakers who were going just a bit too fast up front. Naaqoos threw his head about violently as he was wrestled back into third spot.

Approaching the straight Naaqoos looked to have a serious shot as he was four lengths ahead of the pack with the two pacemakers in front of him tiring badly. But after taking the lead he got totally swamped for speed first by the winner and then by Le Havre. He then had to suffer the injustice of being demoted form third to sixth place for interfering slightly with a horse that would have been well beaten anyway.

Naaqoos has always looked likely to improve for the step up to ten and a half furlongs in the Prix du Jockey Club. But the way he fought against restraint here was somewhat worrying. He'll surely be a sitting duck if he goes back to making all the running n the Prix du Jockey Club. I'd now like to see him demonstrate that he's happy to settle just off the leaders then steal a march off the stronger finishers before I'll bet him at a longer trip. That said he's earned a speed rating of 40 from me and is right up there with the very best of his generation.

The horse that looked most impressive in this race with the Prix du Jockey Club in mind was WESTPHALIA (37). He finished full of running, gaining ground on everything else quite rapidly in the closing stages. Yes he has an unattractive high head carriage. But I'm convinced that's simply because he's so muscle-bound and has nothing to do with his character. He's always looked to be putting in maximum effort to me and is thoroughly genuine. The mile of this race always figured to be on the short side for him. He looks one of the big players for the Prix du Jockey Club now.

FANTASIA NEEDS TO GO LONGER

FANTASIA (37) was always going to be in trouble in the Poule' d’Essai des Pouliches if the early pace was slow. She's a big, strong filly that's crying out for middle distances.

Sure enough the early pace was slow and Fantasia just couldn't pick up the front running winner ELUSIVE WAVE (39) when that one sprinted the last furlong and a half in just under 17 seconds. She also got caught for second place by TAMAZIRTE (38).

If I owned Fantasia I would move heaven and earth to find a decent pacemaker for her in the Prix de Diane. The ten and a half furlongs of that race will clearly suit her better than the slow run mile of this race. But if it develops into another sprint finish I can see her being in trouble again. Then again Chantilly is a stiffer track than Longchamp so perhaps I'm fretting unnecessarily.

In any event Fantasia still looks an exceptional prospect for middle distances. And if the ten and a half furlongs of the Prix de Diane proves insufficient I'm sure she'll do better over a mile and a half. She showed at Newmarket when running into a headwind off a searching early gallop on a track with an uphill finish that she has plenty of stamina. She was really impressive there and it's going to take a smart filly to beat her when she gets a similar test of stamina in future.

Previously I wondered whether the mile would be far enough for Elusive Wave. But the speed she showed here tells me it's her right distance. I'm now not sure she'll get the longer trip in the Prix de Diane. Her stablemate Tamazirte looks a better prospect for that race judged on the way she finished so strong to take second place.