DON CARLOS A BETTER DERBY PROSPECT THAN ST NICHOLAS ABBEY

I've previously noted that I have my doubts about St Nicholas Abbey's ability to handle Epsom. Now I think I've identified a better Coolmore prospect for the Derby that's not even quoted by the bookies or even on Betfair.

I'm talking about DON CARLOS (29) who has just run fourth in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud.

By halfway in the race it was clear that only two horses were traveling - Don Carlos and the eventual winner Passion For Gold.

If you'd been asked to pick between the pair in running with three furlongs to run you would have gone with Don Carlos because he was still swinging along on the bridle whereas Dettori was by then getting busy on Passion For Gold (everything else was being hard ridden).

As they approached the homestraight I fully expected to see Passion For Gold and Don Carlos pull clear of the field. And, seeing how much more smoothly he was going, it looked likely that Don Carlos would prevail. But of course that's not how it worked out.

The problems started when the field did not swing as wide around the turn as they normally do at Saint-Cloud on soft ground. The jockeys know from experience that the place to be on soft ground is a few horse widths off the stands rail. The far rail, where they race when the going is good or firm, is much slower after heavy rain.

Passion For Gold managed to land in the favoured path and proceeded to power away from his rivals. But Johnny Murtagh on Don Carlos found himself with a wall of horses in front of him turning in. He was forced to switch inside the entire field to get a run, six horse widths away from Passion For Gold and right in the porridge. As soon as he got there his stride went to pieces. In addition he began to race green, just as he had when winning on his debut. With the first three just running away from him at this point Murtagh let Don Carlos come home in his own time in the final furlong. It was a terrific effort that he still managed to run fourth.

Don Carlos is a good moving horse that would surely have preferred a fast surface to the swamp he was racing on. Even so I still reckon he'd have won if he'd been able to race alongside Passion For Gold up the homestraight. This is a good looking, well balanced horse that seems tailor-made for Epsom. I can see him being effective at ten furlongs as well as twelve too. That's what his pedigree and physique suggest as does the way he traveled so strongly off a decent early pace here.

It's tough making speed ratings at Saint-Cloud when they move the rails out as far as they did for this meeting to provide better ground. I had to resort to timing the sections of the other races to produce an accurate rating for PASSION FOR GOLD (38). The indicated that he produced a one length better performance than he had when a two and a quarter lengths third to St Nicholas Abbey in the Beresford Stakes.

Passion For Gold is a good bodied, mature colt. And he clearly stays well. He's got a decent turn of foot too. He came home 0.9 of a second quicker over the last three furlongs than borderline Listed class older fillies did in a one mile race on the same card. His performance just edged into Group 1 territory for a two year old this late in the year on my ratings. He's obviously a very good prospect.

LAYALI AL ANDALUS (15) had split St Nicholas Abbey and Passion For Gold in the Beresford. But that was on good ground. Here he set a decent pace for the very soft surface and then went out like a light. Clearly he didn't get home in the ground. It could be he'll handle a soft surface when he's older and stronger (right now he's rather narrow, weak and immature). But for now I think it's best to regard him as a fast ground performer. He remains a very good prospect for next term

LONG RUN IS A DOUR STAYER

LONG RUN (39) is due to move to Nicky Henderson's yard following his win in the Group 1 Prix Maurice Gillois at Auteuil last week And he does look a very good prospect for his first intended target, the Feltham Novices Chase over Christmas.

Seeing that he's only four, it's not surprising that Long Run hasn't yet filled his big frame. He's a tall, long striding, rather gawky, long-backed and narrow sort that's clearly all about stamina rather than speed. In his only defeat over fences to date he stayed on tremendously well all the way to the line but just failed to get by Rubi Ball in another Group 1 back in May. That race was over two and a half miles. Last Sunday the distance was two and three quarter miles, the early pace was strong and the ground heavy. So he was able to outstay his old rival to win the race in good style.

Looking at his physique I have problems seeing Long Run coping with the steep downhill run at Cheltenham or the fast ground that meeting is normally run on these days. But the dead flat course at Kempton should suit him fine. And if the going is soft or heavy he'll surely have a big chance.

Long Run is a good jumper of fences, if a bit cautious at times. He's overjumped a few fences and did so at one obstacle in this race. But his only real error came two out when he ploughed through the second last. He was going so strongly though he just kept right on going and steadily forged away from Rubi Ball.

I suspect that three miles is going to prove an absolute minimum for Long Run in top company in Britain and Ireland and that he may well get done for a turn of foot on fast ground however long he runs. He's obviously a very interesting prospect. But I wouldn't want to be taking a relatively short price about him for the Sun Alliance Chase. I don't think that will be his sort of race.