SONGERIE AND SOIGNEE ARE SMART FILLIES

I should have known that SONGERIE (35) was a smart filly by the fact that Sir Mark Prescott ran her in Ireland after her winning debut. She flopped there, but Prescott's amazing 50% strike rate with his Irish runners indicates strongly that he felt his charge was well up to winning the Group 3 race she lost that day. She certainly validated that idea when winning the Group 3 Prix des Reservoirs at Deauville - a race that has a great history of producing classic prospects.

Songerie's rider, Jean-Bernard Eyquem, should have provided another clue by virtue of his own amazing strike rate on Sir Mark Prescott's runners. As he said afterwards "It is incredible, but I've won five times out of seven that I've gone up for this trainer." Eyquem added that Prescott had told him "Soingerie is already a very hard filly, who fights with all of her forces and has much heart. That appeared correct." Prescott himself said that Songerie prefers soft ground and that for this reason he might well return with her to France for the Pirx de Rose de Mai next Spring.

Songerie only just got home from the German filly SOIGNEE (35) who I'd thought was a good thing for the race.

Soignee's last run at Baden-Baden looked almost unbelievably fast when I went through the calculations I go through to crank out ballpark speed figures for German racing. So I spent a couple of hours making proper standard times for Baden-Baden. Then I converted the official German 'GAG' ratings to my scale and proceeded to work out full blown speed figures based on projections from the German ratings. Even the most conservative interpretation of the numbers suggested that Soignee had run a time that only a Group 1 two year old filly could achieve.

Soignee had her rivals strung out like steeplechasers at the end of a three mile race run in mud at Baden-Baden. The runner-up trailed her home by five lengths. But that didn't stop her from franking the form by romping home with a Group 3 by two and a half lengths on her next outing. The second and third have only ever been beaten by Soignee, and they pulled ten lengths clear of the rest of the field.

Soignee stormed home by seven lengths on her only previous start from a filly that ran a close fourth in Listed company next time. It looks clear that she is very much the best two year old filly in Germany. I had her running a couple of lengths off her very best here. That could be the result of the pace which was a bit slow in the early stages. Soignee looks awfully smart and must have real chances of winning the Henkel-Rennen (German 1000 Guineas) and Preis der Diana (German Oaks) next year.

MUSKETIER THE TOP TWO YEAR OLD

Paris Turf reported a fascinating story concerning MUSKETIER (38), the winner of the recent Prix de Conde at Longchamp. Apparently his owner, Jean-Louis Bouchard saw him run in the Prix de Crevecouer at the big Deauville meeting in August. He was so impressed with the way Musketier stayed on that he called up the then owner and bought him. Remarkably, he'd done exactly the same thing in the same race with Ragmar in 1995. Ragmar went on to win the Prix de Conde, just like Musketier has done. And then Ragmar won the Prix du Jockey Club.

Will history continue to repeat itself? Trainer Pascal Bary seems to think so. He said after the race "this is our horse for the Jockey Club", adding that success there "will not depend on stamina". Bary was referring to the fact that Musketier's typically stout German pedigree looked sure to carry him the distance of the Jockey Club, especially seeing that he'd just won a strongly run nine furlong race in heavy ground. His sire, Acatenango, has a fantastic record and produced this year's Prix du Jockey Club winner, Blue Canari.

Musketier is due to have one more run in the ten furlong Criterium de Saint-Cloud next month. He ranks as the joint fastest two year old in Europe on this run. So I would be wary of opposing him there, even if the ground turns out to be much firmer. Acatanenango's runners invariably act on firm ground and jockey Christophe Lemaire told Paris Turf that Musketier has "a very fluid action".

It was a good week for two year old fillies in France with a brace of smart performances from the fairer sex in Centifolia and Witten.

Fastest was CENTIFOLIA (37) whose only loss in four starts came two runs back when she went off like a bat out of hell and failed to get home. She took the five furlong Criterium de Vitesse in seriously fast time by four lengths, earning a speed rating from me that's just a point off the fastest I've awarded a two year old filly all season.

Trainer Rob Collet said afterwards "Centifolia has enormous speed and, as she was calmer than a few weeks ago, she was better at managing her effort ... I'm now thinking of running her in the Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte, over 1.200 meters, the more so as I know now that the muddy ground does not disturb her at all." Centifolia has in fact won twice over six furlongs, so it looks like she's the one to beat in the upcoming Group 2 at Maisons-Laffite. Long term she should do well, as there aren't many sprinters with her sort of pace in France.

WITTEN (35) became the eighth winner of the Grand Criterium Criterium de Bordeaux to be trained by Jean-Claude Rouget last week, and she might easily be the best. She made all her own running, relaxed well in front and wasn't that hard pressed to win. She'd won in a canter on her previous start following a strong finishing fourth over an inadequate 6.5 furlongs on her debut. She apparently won't run again this season but looks an interesting prospect for next term.

MENEUR (31) won a decent conditions race at Compiegne in close to Listed class time for a two year old. This Criquette Head inmate has now won both of his starts by a half lengths, so one has to suspect that he only does enough to win and could easily run a bit quicker if pressed. He's bred to go longer than the seven furlongs of this race and looks an interesting prospect.

BAGO CAN WIN THE CLASSIC

BAGO (46) ran about as fast as a racehorse can run to take the Arc. I've only awarded Peintre Celebre and Falbrav speed ratings as big in recent years.

Thiery Gillet, Bago's jockey said that, as usual, his mount took a bit of time to accelerate. But he was really motoring once he got in full stride and ran down the leader Cherry Mix most impressively.

Will Bago now go one better than Sakhee and take the Breeders' Cup Classic on dirt? I reckon he has a very big chance of doing so.

In my opinion the main reason Bago has been beaten twice is that he encountered slow run races where his lack of push-button acceleration cost him dear. In both defeats he got caught out when the pace quickened but was running on strongly towards the finish. In this regard I've long thought Bago distributes his energy in a race very much like a typical dirt runner does.

The ability to accelerate quickly is far more important on turf than it is on dirt. The lack of shear resistance of dirt means that more effort doesn't readily translate to more speed. If a horse quickened up dramatically on dirt its efforts would largely be dissipated in greater clouds of kickback rather than greater speed.

Dirt horses make slower moves in a race than turf horses. That's the most energy efficient way to run on dirt. So, when you see a dirt horse on grass they tend to get outpaced at some point in a race - unless there is a searching end to end gallop. This very thing happened to Bago in his three runs before the Arc. As his trainer said after he lost last time "He was a bit one-paced when they accelerated but he didn't run that badly ... he just took a bit of time to get going. " As we saw in the Arc, Bago can really fly when he does get going, but he takes a while to reach full stride - just like dirt horses do.

Looking at Bago's pedigree, I see strong influences for dirt.

James Underwood once told me that the best way to figure out the true influence of a sire or dam is to look at their best progeny, the ones that succeed in pattern company. Horses can win lesser races when they're unsuited to the distance or the surface by outclassing the opposition. But to win a stakes race they just have to be suited to the circumstances of the race. I thought that was very smart advice and have done a study which proved him right (the higher the class of race the more horses conform to influences in their pedigrees).

In this regard, it's interesting to note that Raceform rate the two best racehorses produced by Bago's sire Nashwan (other than Bago) to be Swain and With Reason. With Reason won on the 'All Weather' (dirt) by eight lengths on his racecourse debut in Britain but was then raced on grass since there just aren't enough opportunities on dirt for a horse as good as him in Europe (no Group races and only half a dozen Listed ones). Swain ran close in the world's two most valuable dirt races, the Breeders' Cup Classic and the Dubai World Cup.

Bago's dam, Moonlight's Box, never raced and has only produced one other foal to race so far (a two year old that's only had a few starts this term, winning two of five, admittedly all on grass, but that's what's been available in France).

Moonlight's Box is a half sister to Snake Mountain, who has won a bunch of dirt stakes races on the East coast of America. You could argue that Snake Mountain took to dirt because he was by A P Indy. But Moonlight Box is by Nureyev whose progeny have won 33 times out of 149 on dirt in Europe (22.15% of the time) compared with 202 times out of 1086 (18.6%) on turf.

The thing to bear in mind here is that a classy European horse with an expensive European pedigree is rarely tried on dirt - there just aren't any races for them (as I mentioned before, no Euro Group races on dirt and only half a dozen Listed ones. So, although you could argue that the inferences about dirt I'm drawing above are tenuous, in a European context they're pretty darned strong.

There are several factors that I think are important in deciding whether a horse is likely to be suited to dirt. Pedigree is one of them. Physique, stride pattern and running style are also important.

I once estimated the average height and weight of a large number of turf and dirt performers by visiting the paddock. On adding up the totals and averaging them out I discovered that, on my estimates, the average dirt runner was 50 pounds heavier and an inch shorter than the average turf horse that ran the same distance. A shorter horse means a shorter stride and a shorter stride produces better traction - important when you consider that George Pratt's studies show that dirt on average provides only 10% the shear resistance of turf. Turf horses have big long strides like Kitten's Joy. That's the most efficient way to race on turf.

Bago was one of the shortest horses in the Arc line-up. His stride was probably the shortest too.

Another factor with dirt horses racing on grass is the going. Dirt, according to George Pratt is a harder surface than turf - up to ten times harder. When he tested the old Santa Anita dirt surface he found that it produced up to 90% of the 26,600 ppi concussive force required to break a horse's cannon bone. Dirt horses need to be built to withstand this sort of surface and it generally makes them unsuited to anything but genuinely firm turf, if they can act on turf at all. Dirt horses in Europe invariably flounder on soft turf. Bago's trainer says that the reason his horse lost at York was because he didn't handle the sticky ground. He says he's at his best on really firm turf. It was really firm for the Arc. Bago ran only two fifths of a second off the course record.

Summing up, it seems to me that Bago has a serious chance of winning the Breeders' Cup Classic. He's the fastest European runner ever to go for the race on my speed ratings. He looks to have the physique, running style and pedigree required to adapt to the surface.

If two head bobs had gone the other way and if Frankie Dettori hadn't swung wide on Swain, European horses might well have won three of the last six Breeders' Cup Classics. This time I reckon the Europeans are going to get the job done with Bago.

Runner-up CHERRY MIX (45) is also a very smart performer. He would have won the vast majority of Arcs and looked sure to win when kicking clear. He's improved a good deal for the step up to 12 furlongs and will be a major threat in all the big international mile and a half races if he's kept in training next year. With his owner having died, he looks an awfully tempting target for the Godolphin operation. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him switch from one famous set of blue silks to another next season. Meanwhile, if Cherry Mix runs again this year in something like the Hong Kong Vase I'd be wary of opposing him.

OUIJA BAORD (45) ran a huge race to finish third and has been tremendously well-trained by Ed Dunlop. He's said all along that she's a big immature filly that needs rests between her races. There must have been tremendous temptations to run her in several extremely valuable races. But he's been careful to give her all the time she needed between runs following that loss when she was brought back too quickly for her third start at two.

There was some talk after the Arc of running Ouija back quickly at Texas in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. I can't see her obviously shrewd connections making such a dumb move. They've planned her career so carefully up till now I it would seem crazy for them to rush her back to the races, drop her to ten furlongs and ask her to run around a seven furlong oval in a race that invariably develops into a sprint to the line over the last two furlongs.

ACROPOLIS (44) ran a terrific race to finish fourth, and one is left to wonder what he might have achieved if only he'd started his three year old career before September. The plus side of that is Acropolis is still a fresh horse and there are plenty of big international races to come. I fancy his chances of winning one of them and hope that he stays in training next year.

NORTH LIGHT (44) only just missed fourth place and showed that he's perfectly capable of handling firm ground. He does seem to have quite a bit of knee action though and does kind of thump the ground a bit hard, so on soft ground he could probably beat just about anything. He's something to look forward to if he stays in training next year.

VALLEE ENCHANTEE (43) is a one run closer who got a clear run down the outside to run a big race. She seems best when fresh and must have a real chance of repeating her win in the Hong Kong Vase if she's not run between now and then. If she were mine I wouldn't think of the Japan Cup. European fillies have an appalling record in that race, and I think it's because it involves what must be the longest journey a racehorse can undertake (longer than Hong Kong). Fillies generally are worse travelers than colts, and asking one to travel an extreme distance after a long hard season is probably not a great idea.

LATICE (43) ran a great race to finish a close seventh despite meeting traffic. Her ability to quicken off a slow pace and preference for firm ground would make her an interesting candidate for the big international races to come. But I imagine she'll be retired to stud now.

REEFSCAPE (43) earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've awarded in years for a race beyond a mile and a half when taking the Prix Chaudenay at Longchamp - taking Andre Fabre's score in this race up to ten wins in the last 20 years. A close seventh in the Prix du Jockey Club, Reefscape showed serious Group 1 level ability at the longer distance here.

Reefscape was apparently in need of the run according to his jockey when second off a three month break last time. He now heads for the Prix Royal Oak, and on this run has a major chance in that race. His stoutly bred dam has had only two other foals to race - Martaline and Clear Thinking. Both of them have shown good form in Group company at a mile and a three quarters or more. Reefscape makes it three high class stayers out of three foals, and it's looking like he's a bit better than the other two.

Runner-up LORD DU SUD (42) ran right up to his best and would have a really good shot of winning the Group 2 Prix du Conseil de Paris back at Longchamp on the 17th of October if he takes up his engagement in that race.

Poor old Percussionist (39) chugged on into third as usual and was unlucky to bump up against a Group 1 performer for the second time in a row below Group 1 class. He's wonderfully consistent but is a bit too one paced to win at Group 1 level. I'm not convinced he's necessarily that much better on soft ground as is generally supposed and will continue to oppose him in decent company like this. I'd say he needs to drop down to Group 3 or Listed company to secure a win.

Divine Proprotions (33) was all the rage for the 1000 Guineas after extending her unbeaten run to five in the Marcel Boussac. But she has still to run a fast time. Maybe the slowish early pace prevented her form doing that here, but that simply raises a doubt about whether she really gets a mile. Personally I'd be happy to oppose her whether she goes to Longchamp or Newmarket next spring. She ought to have run a fast time by now.

A few weeks ago I wrote here that "In the past few years a predictable pattern has emerged in the Group and Listed sprints run in France for older horses. Normally the British runners win. Or occasionally Swedish Shave will see off the foreign raiders." No British raiders showed up for the Listed Prix de Bonneval at Chantilly, so the old pattern re-established itslef with Swedish Shave (39) winning his umpteenth pattern race. Swedish Shave has now won six Listed and Group sprints but he's always going to be vulnerable to the British raiders.