HORATIO NELSON DOES IT AGAIN

HORATIO NELSON (40) earned the joint biggest speed rating I've given a two year old in four years when winning the Futurity Stakes. And he equaled the rating when taking the Group 1 Grand Criterium at Longchamp's Arc meeting.

Longchamp's seven furlongs is actually about forty yards short of the advertised distance. It's also downhill for the first couple of furlongs. So it wasn't really that surprising Horatio Nelson only managed to assert rather late in proceedings. The track record is only 1 minute 16 and change, so it's basically much more of a speed than a stamina test.

Reading other people's analysis of the race afterwards I felt that I must have been watching a different race. They all seemed to feel that Horatio Nelson's performance was that of a future Derby winner. I was equally convinced I'd just watched next year's 2000 Guineas winner in action.

In any event, the stats say the argument is pretty academic anyway. Aiden O'Brien has trained seven individual winners of juvenile Group 1's over seven furlongs in the last eight years. All seven would have run in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket if Beckett hadn't been forced to miss the race and most of the season due to training setbacks. I have no doubt whatsoever that Horatio Nelson will be running in the first colt's Classic too. And recent history tells me that means he'll have very little chance of winning the Derby. In the last dozen years 53 Derby runners prepped for the big race over a mile or less - and they all lost.

One thing I really liked about Horatio Nelson's performance was the way he prevailed in a prolonged duel with the runner-up OPERA CAPE (38). Sylvester Kirk's charge made a sustained run at Horatio Nelson throughout the last quarter mile, powering up to him as only a high class horse can do. Yet Horatio Nelson held him at bay and eventually surged clear in the last half furlong. Only an exceptional horse can stand off such a determined challenge for so long and then find another gear.

I guess a lot of pundits are missing out on how fast Horatio Nelson ran because Longchamp's seven furlong course was running quite a bit slower than the rest of the track, as it normally does when it's drying out after a rainy spell (it does seem to drain slower than the Grande, Moyenne and Petite courses). But you only need to have looked at the race to see Horatio Nelson was really motoring right from the start.

In any event, let's not have any more of this talk about George Washington being Coolmore's big gun for the Guineas. Horatio Nelson is a much faster horse according to my speed ratings. In fact I can't recall ever giving a juvenile two speed ratings as big as I've awarded Horatio Nelson. All the other top juveniles in the last decade or so have run fast just the once. For Horatio Nelson to run this quick in back to back races suggests that he is very good indeed. If there were any justice in the world he would head the Free Handicap, but of course he won't.

Runner-up Opera Cape interests me a fair bit too. The Solario Stakes winner made a run at the winner that only a high class horse can make. I see him as a likely Group 1 winner in future as long as he can avoid Horatio Nelson.

HURRICANE RUN NOT THAT FAST

There are two kinds of horses; those that can run pretty fast all the way and those that can run incredibly fast for the last two furlongs. In these days of declining stamina in thoroughbreds it's the latter type of horse that wins most of the world's big races. And so it was in this year's Arc which was won by HURRICANE RUN (41) who produced an electrifying burst of speed off what was a pretty ho hum early pace.

Hurricane Run didn't record a particularly fast final time. Horses of his type never do. For that reason I confess I'm prejudiced against him and his kind. I prefer horses like Azamour, Bago and Electrocutionist who thrive in strongly run races.

I dare say Hurricane Run could beat just about any horse on the planet off a slow early pace, and he'll get the chance to do that next year. But he's sure to run up against a strong early pace in some race and I predict he'll run well below his Arc form when he does. My little fantasy is that he wins something like the Prix Ganay early in the year then comes over to Britain for the King George which is always run at a searching end to end gallop.

Poor old BAGO (39) suffered his normal fate when the pace suddenly quickens following a slow early gallop. His jockey was scrubbing away like crazy entering the home straight. Bago eventually picked up strongly to take third.

I've felt for a long time that Bago is basically a dirt horse running on turf. Dirt horses produce a long sustained run rather than a short burst of speed. They get outpaced in slow run races when the pace quickens up just like Bago does.

Bago is by the same sire as Dubai World Cup winner Swain. His dam is a half sister to the multiple dirt stakes winner Snake Mountain. So he not only runs like a dirt horse, he's bred like one too. He also looks like a dirt horse, as my studies show that dirt runners are shorter and more compact than turf runners which run the same distance, and this describes Bago.

I do hope Bago's connections resurrect last year's aborted plan to run him in the Breeders' Cup Classic. That is his race, not the Breeders' Cup Turf which is invariably run at a crawl in the early stages. The Classic is always run at a furious pace and that will suit Bago down to the ground.

A lot of pundits were very impressed by the performance of runner-up Westerner (40). But the Gold Cup winner didn't run that fast. In fact he never has. So I see him as a horse to bet against if he takes in more of the world's top twelve furlong races as is planned.

If you're looking for an Arc runner that ran well in unfavorable circumstances forget about Westerner. SHIROCCO (38) did far better to take fourth.

Shirocco is monstrously good on genuinely soft ground. In his only two starts on such going to date he won the German Derby by four lengths and became the only horse to ever defeat Italian Champion Electrocutionist in the Gran Premio del Jockey Club.

The going for the Arc was good to firm (forget the idiotic official assessment of good to soft based on that useless tool the penetrometer). So Shirocco did exceptionally well to run fourth. If Andre Fabre can somehow find him another race on soft ground before the season is out I wouldn't oppose him. I guess his best chance of that would be back in the Gran Premio del Jockey Club or perhaps the Canadian International, another race that quite frequently features a fair bit of cut in the ground.

REEFSCAPE IS SPECIAL

last year REEFSCAPE (1) earned the biggest speed rating I've given a horse running beyond a mile and a half in five years. That was when he won the very strongly run Prix Chaudenay at the Arc meeting. This year at the same fixture he showed that he could win a Group 1 race off an incredibly slow early gallop as well.

Ever since his big win in the Prix Chaudenay I've looked forward to seeing Reefscape tried over even longer tips. Last time out he was stepped up to two miles for the first time to win the Prix Gladiateur. Here he was jumped up to two and a half miles to take the Group 1 Prix du Cadran.

I wouldn't care to oppose Reefscape at two miles or more from now on. He's a very special horse at marathon distances and I already regard him as a good thing for next year's Ascot Gold Cup.

RUMPLESTILTSKIN YET TO RUN A FAST TIME

It was hard not to be impressed with the way Rumplestiltskin (33) won the Marcel Boussac. Following a rather slow early pace there were still a lot of horses in contention with a couple of furlongs to go and Rumplestiltskin found herself hemmed in by several of them. The way she extricated herself then accelerated so rapidly to win looked great. But yet again she failed to run a fast time.

I don't know how fast Rumplestiltskin will be able to run when she finally encounters a race with an end to end gallop. Lines of form suggest she would have earned a speed rating of 38 in a more strongly run race here. That's enough to make her interesting for the 100 Guineas but I still wouldn't want to bet her yet at the available odds.

OISEAU RARE AND KASTORIA ARE GROUP 1 FILLIES

OISEAU RARE (41) and KASTORIA (41) fought out the finish of what my speed ratings say was a vintage renewal of the Prix de Royallieu.

Oiseau Rare had buried the smart John Oxx filly Allexina by six lengths in her previous outing and improved on that effort to score here. She has in fact lost just once in five outings to date, and that was over an inadequate ten furlongs in a slow run race.

I do hope Oiseau Rare is kept in training next season as I can see her winning in Group 1 company. Similar comments apply to Kastoria who was most unlucky to come up against a Group 1 rival for the second successive time. Last time out she'd run a very good second to the Prix Vermeille winner Sweet Stream in the Park Hill Stakes. She'd also run a short head second to Mona Lisa who so nearly took a Group 1 at the Arc meeting.