MOUNT NELSON A GOOD PROSPECT FOR FRENCH GUINEAS

Aiden O'Brien has an unusually large number of top class juvenile colts this year. And he produced another one when MOUNT NELSON (39) pipped French Champion two year old SPIRIT ONE (39) in the Crierium International at Saint-Cloud.

O'Brien won the French 2000 Guineas this year with Aussie Rules and looks to have a fine candidate for next year's race in Mount Nelson.

Spirit One is more stoutly bred and already looks like a middle-distance three year old. He came back at Mount Nelson when headed and nearly got back up again. If the race had been two furlongs longer he'd no doubt have been an impressive winner. But there's always next year and the Prix du Jockey Club, a race for which Spirit One remains the most obvious candidate.

STRIKE UP THE BAND IMPROVES

I've noted before that a lot of British sprinters show markedly improved form when they race in France or Ireland because they're able to get away with setting a much slower pace than they would in Britain. This seems to be the case with STRIKE UP THE BAND (41) who clocked a very decent time to take a five and a half furlong Listed race at Chantilly.

Back in Britain I wouldn't fancy Strike Up The Band very much. But I can see him developing into a serious candidate for the Prix Abbaye next year. And whenever he runs in Irleand or France I'd be wary of opposing him.

HOLY ROMAN EMPEROR RUNS A HUGE TIME

HOLY ROMAN EMPEROR (40) earned the biggest speed rating I've given a two year old beyond five furlongs this year to take the Grand Criterium He ran a huge time, prompting me to rethink whether I should have excused his recent defeat by Teofilo on the grounds that he didn't like the yielding going.

Aiden O'Brien pulled Holy Roman Emperor out of another French race earlier because he said the ground was too soft. Now I'm inclined to believe that Holy Roman Emperor is going to come off best in the rematch in the Dewhurst if it is run on fast ground.

Hly Roman Emperor has the build of a sprinter whereas Teofilo is built and bred to go middle distances. In the long term I suspect Teofilo has the best prospects of Classic success. But right now over seven furlongs on fast ground I have to bet that Holy Roman Emperor is going to turn the tables on him. For Teofilo to confirm the form on anything but yielding or softer ground he'd have to be a once in a decade champion. That's possible, but it's something to hope for rather than bet on.

RAIL LINK WINS THE A VERY SLOW RUN ARC

I confess that I'm a sucker for Hollywood endings. So when I saw all those rising sun flags waving in the grandstand at Longchamp and the enthusiastic faces of the Japanese fans who'd flown in to see their champion I really wanted DEEP IMPACT (20) to win. But when I saw the reason Yutaka Take kept Deep Impact away from the other runners and ensured he was last into the stalls I knew the happy ending was improbable. Unlike any of this rivals Deep Impact had sweat on his neck and was foaming up between his back legs at the start. Clearly he was nervous as horses often are when they're unfit following a lengthy lay-off. And he instantly showed it in the race itself by pulling hard against the very slow early pace.

Deep Impact had won his Japanese races in huge fields which ensured a searching early pace every time. Here, in the smallest Arc field in 60 years, he found himself right up with the leaders who were going what was little more than a hack canter in the early stages. As his rider said "He was tense in the first part of the race and was pulling. That is the reason why he didn't show his usual acceleration. In Japan races are run at a much faster pace and he is not used to this style of racing."

That Deep Impact should still be able to get so close to winning the big race says a lot for his qualities. His connections apparently plan to have another shot at the race in 2007 when the field will probably be much bigger and the early pace stronger as a result. And surely they'll give him a prep race next year instead of asking him to win the Arc off a longer rest than any winner in the last 36 years (which is as far back as I can trace).

Take nothing away from RAIL LINK (20) though. He'd previously shown that he was one of the top horses in Europe and once more showed a serious turn of foot to take himself into the lead. It was good news to hear that he'll be kept in training next season. He and his stablemate Visindar look set to ensure that Andre Fabre will continue to have a very strong hand in all the big twelve furlong races.

These days the lure of a dozen or so super-valuable races run later in the year appears to have altered the profile of the Arc. Usually it is the last race of the season for the three year olds (indeed half the 3YO winners are retired to stud immediately after the race), so it forms a prime target for them. The most fancied older Arc runners on the other hand are invariably given a very light campaign beforehand in order to be kept fresh for later races such as the Breeders' Cup Turf, Canadian International, Japan Cup, Hong Kong Cup, Caulfield Cup and others. This seems to have handed a big advantage to the three year olds in recent years. Just of the last 13 Arcs have gone to horses aged four or more compared with eight of the previous 13 Arcs which fell to the older runners.

I very much doubt that we'll be seeing Rail Link again this year. But the three most fancied older runners – Deep Impact, HURRICANE RUN (18) and SHIROCCO (13) had all been restricted to just three or four previous runs this year.

Deep Impact will no doubt be going for the Japan Cup while Hurricane Run and Shirocco give Fabre what looks to be a winning hand in the Breeders' Cup Turf (I don't believe Fabre will run Shirocco in the Classic now that he's once more shown he dislikes a firm surface).

Pride (20) ran a big race to finish second. But I very much doubt that she'll gain compensation in the Japan Cup or the Hong Kong Cup as those races are near certain to feature big fields. Pride can produce a fantastic turn of foot off a slow pace in a small field. Before this race she had run five times in fields smaller than ten when she'd had a run within a month and won every single time. As She very nearly made it six out of six here but the big fields out East look set to beat her.

VENDANGEUR A SMART YOUNG STAYER

The form of VENDANGEUR (39) reads like a Who's Who of the top European middle distance three year olds. He's spent much of this season finishing second and third to very smart horses such as Lauro, Rail Link and Kentucky Dynamite.

Probably thanks to a strong early pace and an extreme distance, Vendangeur finally got his head in front in the Group 2 Prix Chaudenay, confirming once more the remarkable new influence for stamina that has been uncovered in his sire Galileo.

Vendangeur's trainer says that he is a big horse that still needs experience and will make a better four year old. He also says that he thinks Vendangeur will be just as effective back at a mile and a half. That may be wishful thinking, but Vendangeur certainly looks a horse worth following next year when he looks set to become one of the top stayers in France.

PONTE TRESA (39) had got to within five lengths of Mandesha in the Prix Vermeille and improved on that effort over the extra three furlongs here. Her jockey says he thought she'd be no better than fourth or fifth as they entered the homestraight. But she stayed on very strongly from there to run the winner to a head. Clearly she stays well. If she remains in training next year she ought to be able to win in Group company. It's just a pity there are so few staying races restricted to fillies.

MANDESHA REALLY IS THAT GOOD

I thought I'd found myself a live outsider in the Prix l'Opera in SATWA QUEEN (40). But she got caught late by MANDESHA (41) who ran a time which suggests she really is as good as her reputation suggests.

Mandesha lost on her racecourse debut, but she's now passed the post first in all six of her subsequent outings. Clearly she's a very smart filly. And she possesses a serious turn of foot too. This makes her loom a very interesting candidate for the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf if she goes for that race.

My confidence in Satwa Queen was partly based on her strong finishing and close second to Irridesence when that one earned the biggest rating I've given a filly all year back in February – plus my read of her form which suggests she's best when fresh.

DON'T UNDER-ESTIMATE SOLDIER HOLLOW

SOLDIER HOLLOW (39) seems to thrive in the latter half of the season. Following his success in the Prix Dollar his record in July or later now shows nine wins from thirteen tries. He's lost all but one of his eleven starts earlier in the year.

Soldier Hollow can almost certainly run a bit faster than he showed in the Prix Dollar as the early pace was slow. But I wonder if this multiple Group 1 winner ever will run much faster because he does seem very well suited by slowly run races. This being so he looks an interesting candidate for big international races in Hong Kong, Australia or America where they normally go a slow pace in the early stages of middle distance races. For now it looks like his connections are going to choose between the Champion Stakes and the Premio Roma. He's already won the latter event and would be a live contender in the former.

Poor old MANDURO (39) once more missed winning a big race in a tight finish. He was closing Soldier Hollow down rapidly at the line and his jockey said if the early pace had been stronger he would definitely have scored.

Manduro has now run a whole string of big races right from the Spring all the way through to the Autumn. He thoroughly deserves a Group 1 win and might be able to get it if he takes up his engagement in the Champion Stakes, though I have to say his old rival Corre Caminos does seem to have been trained to the minute for that race.

FINSCEAL BEO AS GOOD AS SHE LOOKS

FINSCEAL BEO (39) was the fastest horse in the Prix Marcel Boussac according to my speed ratings and she confirmed that idea by running away with the race. She clearly appreciated the step up to a mile and the switch to faster ground.

I suspect many people are going to under-estimate Finsceal Beo because she lost a nursery and ran unplaced in the Goffs Million. But the nursery loss came off a long lay-off and the defeat in the Goffs Million was on soft ground. On faster ground, with those recent runs under her belt, she ran a proper Group 1 class time at Longchamp. She looks a much better 1000 Guineas prospect to me than the current favourite Sander Camillo. Sander Camillo has yet to run anything like as fast as Finsceal Beo or prove that she stays beyond six furlongs.

Finsceal Beo ran the fastest time ever recorded in the Marcel Boussac or in any two year old race over a mile at Longchamp come to that. My speed ratings suggest she is going to be a worthy replacement for Bolger's brilliant mare Alexander Goldrun.

DESERT LORD SMART – OUTSIDE BRITAIN