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MID DANCER STILL HAS IT
MID DANCER (39) showed that he's as good as ever when
winning the Grade 3 Prix Heros XII on his first start since the Grand
Steeplechase de Paris back in May.
Early on it was clear Mid Dancer was a bit too fresh and
keen as he raced with his tail held high, jumped exuberantly and pulled his way
to second place. But his jockey sensibly decided not to fight him and Mid Dancer
soon settled into a comfortable rhythm.
With five to jump Mid Dancer went on. His jockey never
asked him to fully extend himself from there and was content to maintain a
narrow lead. On the run in he waved the whip at him briefly to get him to go
further ahead but took a look back over his shoulder, saw that he had enough of
a margin and only rode him out hands and heels from there for a comfortable
success.
Mid Dancer has earned ratings around the 42-43 mark from me
before and no doubt could have done so again. But his big objective is the Prix
la Haye Jousselin (sometimes called the French King George) in four week's time
and his rider was clearly mindful of this.
These days Mid Dancer seems to have lost the speed needed
to beat decent rivals over hurdles, having lost his last four tries over the
smaller obstacles. But he's won 25 of his other 27 French starts, with his two
other losses being second and third place finishes in the Grand Steeplechase de
Paris.
Seeing how big horses have to jump to clear the fences at
Auteuil I can now understand why Mid Dancer has lost his two UK starts. One of
the fences looks to be around six feet and another is a brick wall. Horses have
a much harder time switching from tough obstacles to easy ones than the other
way round. So I think Mid Dancer need a run or two to get his eye in over
British fences. And, seeing how poorly he's now doing over fixed brush hurdles,
I'm not sure he'd produce his best even then. If he is ever to run outside
France again therefore I'd prefer the attempt were made in Ireland rather than
France as Irish fences claim a significantly higher percentage of fallers than
those in Britain.
In any event Mid Dancer clearly has a big shot in the Prix
la Haye Jousselin. He won the race the only time he tacked it in 2007 and has
yet to lose in ten French chase starts outside of the Grand Steeplechase de
Paris.
LET'S NOT GO OVERBOARD WITH SEA THE STARS
I confess that I am having a bad reaction to all the praise
that's been heaped on SEA THE STARS (43) after his win in the Arc de Triomphe.
Yes it was a smart performance on the clock. But every year around the world we
see at least half a dozen to match it on my speed ratings. And I don't think the
adulation the horse is getting for his admittedly brilliant feat of winning six
Group 1's in a row is good for the sport.
It seems to me that that the attention Sea The Stars is
receiving promotes what I see as two very bad ideas. The first is that a horse
can establish itself as a Champion in a single season. The second is that an
unbeaten string of victories is the true mark of a great horse.
The connections of top horses need to be encouraged to risk
defeat for their charges without the prospect of torpedoing their stud value. If
we reserve our highest praise for those that are fortunate enough to establish a
long unbeaten streak we're doing a disservice to the sport. We're forcing many
of the best horses to be retired early for fear of breaking their winning
sequence and losing millions in stud value.
I have little doubt that Sea The Stars would have been
beaten in the Irish Derby or the King George if he'd run in either race. The
going was too slow for him at the Curragh and the Ascot race would have come too
soon after a big effort that left him tired in the Eclipse. By avoiding those
races Sea The Stars has managed to win eight in a row and be widely recognised
as an all time great. Perhaps that's justified. But plenty of other horses as
good or better than him on my ratings have run in unsuitable races and thereby
sacrificed their chance of setting up a big winning sequence. And they've never
been given the recognition they deserved.
I'm not a fan of comparing horses from different periods.
But as far as I'm concerned the fastest horse we've seen in the last ten years
was Falbrav. He clocked a series of incredible times at every distance from a
mile to twelve furlongs in seven different countries across four seasons. But
because he failed to establish a big winning streak he never gained the
recognition that Sea The Stars has in the space of a few months. The very fact
that Falbrav was such a globetrotter also meant he failed to generate the
intense local press coverage that Sea The Stars has thanks to racing solely in
Europe.
Don't get me wrong here. When he won the Eclipse Sea The
Stars earned the biggest speed rating I've given a three year old in around a
decade. But he's not come within two lengths per mile of that rating in any
other race. So I'd like to see him do it again before being sure that the big
number wasn't due to some error on my part.
However it looks like I won't get the chance. Towards the
end of the Arc Sea The Stars was visibly tiring. You can see it from his
sectional times of 5.5, 5.6 then 6.2 seconds for the last three 100 metre
sections. He wasn't as tired as he was at the end of the Eclipse but trainer
John Oxx did say he was tired the next day. Add to this what jockey Mick Kinane
has said about Sea The Stars having gone in his coat and it hardly looks likely
that we'll be seeing Sea The Stars again. He's surely going straight to stud.
If I had my way no stallion would be eligible for stud duty
unless it had won a Group 1 race at four years of age or more. The present crazy
system that we have allows hype to replace sustained racecourse performance and
prevents horse-racing from having the long-established stars which draw fans to
every other sport.
YOUMZAIN (42) was attempting to become only the second Arc
winner older than five and made a valiant effort to run second in the big race
for a third consecutive time. He has always needed a strong early pace or soft
ground to bring his stamina into play and has benefited from the pacemaking
efforts of team Coolmore in the last three Arcs. But the truth is although he's
reached the first three a remarkable fourteen times in seventeen Group 1 races
and run close in the other three he does lack the push-button acceleration that
usually makes the difference between winning and placing in middle distance
Group 1's. This is why he's only managed one win in his last sixteen starts.
Frankie Dettori did well to have CAVALRYMAN (42) prominent
in the chasing group right from the start. But he did have to use a bit of his
mount's speed to get there early on. Cavalryman also managed to get his tongue
over the bit from halfway. So it was a good performance for him to only just
miss the runner up spot and keep on strongly.
Godolphin racing manager Simon Crisford feels that
Cavalryman would have appreciated a bit more cut in the ground. Clearly he's
very effective on firm ground but he doesn't have a brilliant turn of foot, so
his comment makes sense. Cavalryman should also appreciate the stronger early
pace of racing in Britain where he'll be racing next year. The King George looks
his logical big target.
CONDUIT (41) put in a great prep for his bid to win back to
back runnings of the Breeders' Cup Turf, running on well to pass half a dozen
horses up the straight and only miss second by half a length. His chance at
Santa Anita is probably going to hinge on Coolmore putting in a pacemaker for
whatever they choose to run. If they don't put in a pacemaker he could be in
trouble as he looks to need a strong gallop to run at.
DAR RE MI (41) ran right up to her best. She was always
prominent and kept on well. However I'm not convinced about her chances in the
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. She lacks the turn of foot that's normally
required to win that race.
BEHESHTAM (39) ran close to his best despite finishing
twelfth. He disputed fourth in the main group early on before closing up when
the pacemakers fell away to get to within two and a half lengths of the lead
with a furlong and a half to go. He lacked the pace to challenge from there and
got squeezed out with 150 yards to run. He wasn't given a hard time from there.
Clearly Beheshtam would have found it easier to pick up
ground and avoid trouble if he'd had the cut in the ground he seems to need. I
hope he stays in training because I see him winning a Group 1 when he gets his
ground next year, even if he sticks to a mile and a half. Over the longer
distances he's bred for he could be a smart Cup horse.
Further back in the field THE BOGBERRY (38) continues to
look interesting. He got into all sorts of traffic problems when finishing well,
ridden only hands and heels in this two comeback races. And he again took a bump
here shortly after entering the homestraight despite being kept wide of the
other runners most of the way. It seems likely that he's best in smaller fields.
But he did manage to finish a close fourth in the Hong Kong Vase last year in a
field of thirteen so he'd be a live outsider in that race once more. He'd also
have a great shot in the Champion Stakes as it's run on a straight course which
would give him far more room to manouver and avoid getting impeded by his
rivals.
GOLDIKOVA STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE BC MILE DOUBLE
I was concerned that GOLDIKOVA (40) might lose the Prix de
la Foret as she'd never run shorter than a mile before. Adding to the concern
was the fact that the 1400 metres at Longchamp isn't actually a full seven
furlongs. It's 6 furlongs and 180 yards. Plus a significant part of the race is
run downhill. Hence the course record of only 1 minute 17.9 seconds.
Goldikova certainly got away well. But she'd used the speed
she normally reserves to produce her amazing finishing burst to get a decent
position from her wide draw. It looked like the race was all over when she
cruised clear a furlong and a half out. But the effort of hustling up to find
position at the fast early pace told and she just got caught.
There are five weeks to the Breeders' Cup meeting from the
time of this race. So Goldikova has enough time to recover from this minor
setback. She remains by far the best miler in Europe on my speed ratings, indeed
one of the best we've seen in years. I still think she's pretty much nailed on
to win her second Breeders' Cup Mile next month.'
MANIGHAR IS A SMART STAYER
The key prep for the Prix Chaudenay is clearly the Prix
Lutece, another Group race for three year olds run over the same distance in
early September. Eight of the last eleven winners reached the first three in
that contest.
MANIGHAR (37) was the only horse in this year's Prix
Chaudenay that had reached the first three in the Prix Lutece and he duly won,
despite the fact that he would clearly have appreciated a stronger pace.
Manighar had a stronger pace to run at in the Prix Lutece
and entered the race unbeaten in five starts. He made a bold bid to keep his
unbeaten record. He steadily moved up smoothly from last place after halfway to
lead entering the straight before getting headed by Wajir. That one had just a
little bit too much pace for him. But Manighar kept on really strongly all the
way to the line to lose by a length in a race I rated faster than most St
Legers.
I'm not alone in thinking that Wajir is going to be the top
stayer in Europe next season. He has a terrific turn of foot for a stayer just
like his relative Westerner and, again just like Westerner, has improved
massively for a step up to staying distances. Manighar did well to run him so
close and looks a good prospect for big staying races next year.
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