FRANCE SEPT 07

ZAMBEZI SUN RUNS BEST ARC TRIAL

Surf to www.youtube.com, call up the video of the Prix Niel, watch the last furlong and a half and ask yourself 'which horse is having the prep race?'

The answer is pretty obvious: The winner SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (40) and runner up SAGEBURG (39) are ridden long and hard while the third horse ZAMBEZI SUN (39) is visibly given a much easier time by his jockey.

In fact during the last furlong Soldier Of Fortune's stride shortens and he gets so tired he begins to roll around as his jockey's arms pump up and down vigorously. At this point Zambezi Sun's rider has clearly made up his mind to be content with third place. His mount passes the line a much fresher horse than the first two.

This kind of thing happens all the time in France. There's an unwritten rule that when a top horse is coming back from a lay-off and prepping for a big race its jockey doesn't have to make a maximum effort - as long as the trainer of the horse has announced loudly beforehand that his charge will need the run (which Zambezi Sun's trainer, Pascal Bary, did here).

The example that springs to mind is that of Zafonic who was beaten a short head in the Prix Djebel on his three year old debut before romping home in the 2000 Guineas a few weeks later. It was so obvious Zafonic wasn't given a hard race in the Djebel that he started odds in the Guineas.

I have little doubt that Zambezi Sun will reverse this form with Soldier Of Fortune in the Arc. And it is only the Anglo-Irish bias of the bookmakers which prompted them to cut Soldier Of Fortune to 5-2 and push Zambezi Sun out to 8-1. French punters, who are used to this kind of thing, will undoubtedly have the pair a lot closer in the betting on the big day.

This is of course assuming that Soldier Of Fortune actually lines up for the Arc. Seeing how hard a race he had here makes me wonder whether Coolmore won't sidestep the big Longchamp race and wait for one of the other big prizes run a little later.

Adding to this concern is the possibility that Soldier Of Fortune rolled around in the closing stages because he was jarring himself on the firm surface as he tired and became less coordinated. The Aga Khan's racing manager Georges Rimaud echoed these sentiments when he said "the ground was very fast and I'm not sure how the horses will come out of racing yesterday - I expect the horses who had hard races will suffer from it. It was very, very fast."

Aiden O'Brien has yet to win the Arc. I rather doubt that Soldier Of Fortune is going to be the horse to alter his fortune's in France's top race.

Zambezi Sun's lack of fitness was caused by a foot problem he encountered just three weeks earlier which caused him to miss crucial work.

Pascal Bary was understandably upbeat about Zambezi Sun's Arc prospects after the race. He told Paris Turf "This was not an objective, he will be much better in three weeks. He was only one length and half off the winner without his jockey asking him the impossible ... Zambezi Sun will improve greatly on this run."

There is a powerful statistic which is worth bearing in mind here: Ten of the last twelve times Prix Niel runners have gone on to contest the Arc they've provided the winner of the big race. And the winner has always been the horse that scored in the Prix Niel or the one that started favourite. In fact nine times out of twelve the favourite for the Prix Niel has gone on to win the Arc.

Soldier Of Fortune won this year's Prix Niel but Zambezi Sun started favourite. And I reckon it is the French horse that has the biggest chance of taking the Arc.

MANDESHA BEST IN BIG FIELDS

Watch the videos of races which MADESHA (28) has contested and it becomes obvious that she has a tremendous ability to cope with heavy traffic. She is a very well balanced filly who seems to know how to simply push her way past rivals and bully her way through gaps that would intimidate another runner. She never gets stopped making her run.

This ability has helped Mandesha win all four races she's contested with ten runners or more since her losing racecourse debut.

In smaller fields Madesha doesn't seem so good at all. She ran a disappointing second as odds on favourite in the six runner Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud back in June. And last Sunday she showed little of her normal ability to quicken despite looking full of run when finishing second to the ill-fated Manduro in the five runner Prix Foy.

It looked like Madesha simply wasn't very interested in running without other runners to fight her way past. Her jockey, Christophe Soumillon, confirmed this after the race, saying she didn't seem to be concentrating. Her trainer says he may try to correct the problem next time out by equiping Mandesha with sheepskin cheekpieces.

Mandesha wasn't given a hard time in the closing stages of the Prix Foy. And now I'm hoping that her connections stick to their guns and shoot for the Arc rather than attempt a repeat in the Prix L'Opera. She is guaranteed a big field in the Arc whereas the Prix L'Opera may well cut up to a small field.

Paris Turf clearly share my sentiment. They summed up their report on the Arc Trials by saying "On the shoulders of Mandesha from now on the best French chance rests."

WEST WIND LOOKS INTERESTING FOR THE PRIX L'OPERA

WEST WIND (35) was held up to get the trip in the Prix Vermeille. And I have to agree with her trainer that she just failed to do so. She came out of the pack to show a tremendous burst of acceleration but flattened out in the last 110 yards. I clocked her running a blistering 5.4 seconds for the first half of the final furlong and then slowing down to 5.8 seconds for the last half.

I think it's a smart move to cut back West Wind to ten furlongs for the Prix L'Opera. I'm inclined to think that the turn of foot she showed here and when winning the Prix de Diane makes her almost unbeatable against her own sex over that distance - especially in a smaller field than she met here. Horses with push-button acceleration like West Wind always risk having their energy dissipated by traffic in bigger fields.

COASTAL PATH LOOKS NAILED ON FOR THE PRIX CHAUDENAY

COASTAL PATH (41) earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've given a three year old all season when winning the Prix Lutece by four lengths in what I'm pretty sure was course record time. This half brother to the top class stayer Reefscape looks something of a good thing to win the Prix Chaudenay, just as Reefscape did back in 2004.

Coastal Path has now won all three of his starts by a wide margin and looks set to become one of Europe's top stayers. Indeed he ran so fast here that it's interesting to speculate whether or not he might be effective if cut back to a mile and a half. After all Reefscape ran second over 10.5 furlongs and third over twelve furlongs in Group 1 company.

Right now Coastal Path is looking like Andre Fabre's banker for the Arc meeting at Longchamp.

Runner-up DANCING LADY (39) appears a strong contender for that meeting as well in the Prix de Royallieu. She is improving all the time and may well be the fastest horse in the line up on my speed ratings on the big day.

GEORGE WASHINGTON MUST GO FOR THE BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC

Ever since I watched GEORGE WASHINGTON (36) get outpaced then stay on strongly in the Queen Anne Stakes I've been looking forward to betting him in the Breeders' Cup Classic. In that race and the Eclipse I got the strong impression I was watching a horse that is going to be ideally suited by a mile and a quarter on dirt now that he's matured.

If you took a top class ten furlong dirt horse and ran it in last Sunday's Prix du Moulin it would run exactly the way George Washington did - getting left behind as the pace quickened then surging rather than accelerating towards the leaders late with the short choppy stride of a dirt runner.

George Washington clearly needs a searching early pace to be effective. That is the norm on dirt. He might get it in the QEII. But the race where he'll be carrying my money is the Breeders' Cup Classic.

DARJINA (39) won the sprint to the line in the Moulin. And once more she looked like she'd have no problem stepping up to ten furlongs for the Prix L'Opera. Clearly she is a smart filly on fast ground.

RAMONTI (37) ran his normal honest race to finish second. Seeing that he stays longer I suspect he would have done better kicking on and setting a stronger pace. Then again that would have suited the winner and George Washington too.

LINNGARI (35) was my pick at huge odds on the grounds that he's best fresh and in small fields. He ran a good race to finish fourth and his trainer said afterwards he probably needed the run, his big objective being the Prix Foret next time out. I'll be interested in Linngari's chances there. He split the brilliant Japanese pair Admire Moon and Daiwa Major in the world's richest turf race earlier in the season, earning a much bigger speed rating from me than any of his rivals in the Foret ever have.