BAAHAMA HAS SERIOUS SHOT IN MARCEL BOUSSAC

I really liked the way BAAHAMA (37) finished to run second by a head in the Prix d'Aumale. She was full of run as they crossed the line and my feeling is that if she'd started her run sooner or had more experience she would have won.

Baahama is a good-bodied, actually quite big-bodied, mature filly with a fast ground action that looks built to produce a decent turn of foot. She showed this when winning a slow run 7.5 furlong Conditions race at Deauville in good style on her only previous start.

When the sprint for home began at Deauville Baahama had nearly three lengths to make up and her jockey gave her a couple of cracks with the whip to get her going. But when he saw she had built up enough speed to pass the leader he only rode her hands and heels, allowing her to get up and win narrowly with her ears pricked, full of running.

It was very hard to tell how good Baahama was from that run. But she showed that she's Group 1 class with this performance.

Baahama is one of only three horses trainer Andre Fabre has left in the Marcel Boussac and looks likely to line up for the big race. She is by the same sire as Goldikova and has the same great grand dam, the Arc winner Gold River. Baahama's dam won a Listed race over twelve furlongs. And she does look built for middle distances. However she also has the physique to produce a fair bit of speed, which she demonstrated when producing that strong run to win in that sprint finish on her sole start and in her most effort. She looks a very interesting candidate for the Marcel Boussac to me.

It's interesting to note that Baahama is Breeders' Cup nominated. If she were mine I'd have no hesitations shipping her out for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. And seeing that she's with Andre Fabre, the most successful foreign trainer at the Breeders' Cup, it looks very possible she may actually go for the race.

The winner MIDDLE CLUB (37) got first run on Baahama but still produced a terrific effort to score. If she hadn't gone under by a half length to the smart Mudaarah in one race she'd have been scoring a hat trick here. Like the runner up she should go longer distances. So I wasn't surprised to hear the long term plan is to bring her back to Chantilly for the Prix de Diane next year. My feeling is that Baahama will prove the better of the pair, but this was still a smart performance.

CAVALRYMAN THE ONE TO BEAT IN ARC

The Prix Niel was the only race run on Arc trial day at Longchamp that was actually run like a trial. Unlike the Prix Foy and Vermeille the early pace was not very strong and the jockey on the winner CAVALRYMAN (37) was clearly under instructions not to give his mount too hard a race.

I think that time will show Cavalryman won an exceptionally strong renewal of the Prix Niel. It was certainly impressive how the first four were going away from Topclas in the closing stages, a horse that invariably picks up a lot of ground late himself.

Dettori on Cavalryman looked to have a fair bit on his plate when the front running AIZAVOSKI (36) kicked clear and sprinted for home. The big, long striding was moving really strong and racked up three successive sub 12 second furlongs in the run to the line. But Dettori didn't have to go for everything and was able to get Cavalryman to close the gap and edge three parts of a length up before the line with mostly hands and heels riding.

Cavalryman is a loose limbed, well proportioned colt that has shown a good deal of versatility in his races. He's been able to win on a variety of surfaces and off a strong pace and a weak one. After he won the Grand Prix de Paris in July trainer Andre Fabre described him as a 'great horse'. For the ultra-conservative Fabre this is a remarkable statement. He's trained some of the best horses of recent years and I can't recall him describing any of them as 'great'.

Fabre has trained nine previous winners of the Prix Niel. Six of the nine went on to win the Arc. I think the home ground advantage makes him rather than Sea The Stars the one to beat in the Arc. And I do hope the Irish colt makes the journey across the Channel for the big race as the showdown between this pair could be one of the highlights of the season.

BEHSHTAM (36) ran a big race to chase the winner home. He was held up as usual and worried away at Cavalryman in the closing stages without ever looking likely to pass him.

Beheshtam is a big, long striding horse that shows knee action. His dam was smart over two miles and he broke his maiden over 1m 5f. His two wins have been on yielding and soft ground and he clearly got done for pace in both the Prix du Jockey Club and Grand Prix de Paris on fast ground. Here the ground was a little slower than it normally is for the Arc. So the fact he couldn't get by Cavalryman under a full out drive does not speak well for his prospects in the big race itself next month.

Long term Beheshtam is going to be very interesting when he goes up to long distances, especially if he gets the cut in the ground he seems to prefer. Right now though I don't think he's going to crack it at a mile and a half in Group 1 company, expect perhaps on really soft ground.

Third placed Aizavoski was undoubtedly the best looking horse in the race. He's a big, powerful, very muscular horse with a big, bounding stride that shows even more knee action that Beheshtam's. I like the way he kept on so strongly in what looked a red hot race.

Aizavoski won his maiden at Longchamp by no less than eight lengths, the kind of margin you rarely see on the Paris circuit. Next time out he got caught hopelessly flat footed in a very slow run race where a sprint finish developed over a trip that's clearly too short for him, ten furlongs.

On his only subsequent start before this Aizavoski ensured there was a better pace by pressing the front runner from the start. But the trip was again only ten furlongs. After looking sure to win when cruising into the lead he just got caught on the line by the strong finishing winner. The winner went on to run second in a Group 2 next time. The third went on to win a Listed race by six lengths.

Aizavoski looked to have been crying out for a step up to this trip. But, as his trainer pointed out beforehand, he would have preferred more cut in the ground. He'll surely be winning big races before long.

CLAREMONT (36) has shown before that he tends to get caught flat footed in sprint finishes like this. He's just a bit too tall and gangly to respond rapidly to a change in pace. The problem resurfaced here as he dropped back from second to fourth when the sprint finish began only to rally and close the gap again late.

All through the race Claremont's ears were going this way and that in the manner of a horse that still has a fair bit of learning to do. He's a smart mile and a half performer who I feel sure will prove competitive in Group 1 races next year for Godolphin.

STACELITA SHOWS WHY THE ARC IS BEYOND HER

I've been banging on all season about how my speed ratings suggests the three year old fillies are a weak group this year, with the notable exception of Night Magic. So I was not surprised when the highly touted STACELITA (40) got beat by the four year old DAR RE MI (40) in the Prix Vermeille.

Stacelita clearly didn't deserve to be awarded the race. Dar Re Mi was disqualified for interfering with fifth placed Soberania. And her defeat demonstrated just why she's going to be up against it in the Arc.

First of all the time for the Vermeille was two fifths of a second slower than Spanish Moon clocked in the Prix Foy. But the older males were able to come home 1.1 seconds faster over the final three furlongs.

Stacelita's wins have all been on soft ground or off a searching early gallop. She clearly lacks a change of gear, and the sectional times showed that clearly here. She was caught and beaten by a winner that herself has shown a noticeable lack of acceleration in the past.

Here Stacelita had a pacemaker to ensure she got the strong gallop she needs. I guess you could argue that she may have a pacemaker again in the Arc or that Magadan's pacemaker or one provided by Coolmore will guarantee a good early pace. But that 1.1 seconds deficit over the final three furlongs compared with the Prix Foy plus the fact that my speed ratings put at least half a dozen Arc rivals three lengths or more ahead of her tells me she won't be winning Europe's biggest race.

Seeing how Dar Re Mi squeezed up the German filly Soberania for a good fifty yards on the rail I can't see her getting the race on appeal. But I do wonder if jockey Jimmy Fortune would have gone for what was almost a non existent gap if he hadn't been conditioned by the much more lax stewarding that prevails in Britain. The general view that Dar Re Mi would have kept the race in Britain is clearly correct. However that doesn't make the British position right. I'd much prefer a racing world where stewards followed the French or better still the even more draconian Hong Kong model of stewarding.

When I visited Hong Kong a couple of months ago I was amazed at how the horses seemed to almost run in lanes. The jockeys were clearly so scared of losing a race or being suspended for interference that they always took at least two looks back before coming even slightly off a straight line. Under the Hong Kong system I guarantee that Fortune would not have dared go near Soberania. I'm also certain that we would not have seen the serial interference that Sariska inflicted on her rivals before taking the Oaks in such controversial style. In each case the right horse would have won.

I don't know quite where Dar Re Mi goes from here. She's a wonderfully consistent and game filly. She could well reach the first four in the Arc if she holds her form (though I can't see how she'd be good enough to win). But it's worth bearing in mind that she'd gone stale by the Arc meeting last year and may now need a rest.

Third placed PLUMANIA (39) finished like a train to take fourth in last year's Prix Marcel Boussac. So it makes sense that she should show her best ever form at three the first time she tried a mile and a half here. Always prominent, she kept on really strongly and clearly appreciated the step up in trip. I imagine the Prix Royallieu over 12.5 furlongs rather than the shorter Prix l'Opera will now be on the agenda. She'll be tough to beat in that race and would be capable of winning a Group 1 for fillies if kept in training next year.

Fourth placed BOARD MEETING (39), rather like the first and second, lacks acceleration and is best on soft ground or off a searching early gallop which she got here. She stayed on strongly and clearly gets a mile and a half well.

SOBERANIA (39) is a really well made, classy looking filly that got tightened up for quite a way by Dar Re Mi and would have finished a bit closer otherwise. She'd run four and a half lengths second to the brilliant Night Magic in the Preis der Diana (German Oaks). And she paid that one a big compliment by getting to within two lengths of the winner here. She's built to produce a turn of foot and has shown before that she's just as effective over ten furlongs. I can readily see her winning a Group 1, even against males and will be very interested in her chances if she takes up her engagement in the Preis von Europa at the end of September. I'll be even more interested if, as seems likely, her old conqueror Night Magic runs in the Prix l'Opera.

The one horse that the strong early pace would not have suited is ARMURE (38) who nonetheless finished a close seventh. Armure was clearly very well suited by the slow early pace and sprint finishes of Polytrack races in Britain. She's shown an equal liking for the similar style of turf races in France. She failed to handle the very tight turns of Lingfield on one occasion and probably needed the run the first time she encountered suitably fast ground in France for her new French stable. But before this loss she'd won the other six times she'd run on Polytrack or in France. Back in a more normally run French race I can readily see Armure winning again in Group company before the season is out.

VISION D'ETAT HAS A SHOT IN THE ARC

SPANISH MOON (42) doesn't get anything like the press coverage he deserves, partly due to the fact that he's banned from racing in his native Britain due to his antics at the start. He showed in the Prix Foy just how good he is by winning in fast time from the high class Vision D'Etat.

If two short head photos had gone his way this would have been the sixth win in a row for Spanish Moon. He's a really good looking horse that only lost the world's most valuable turf race, the Dubai Sheema Classic. Unfortunately he has a history of major injuries and does seem to be best with big breaks between his runs. Five of his six wins have followed a rest of at least 47 days. This being so I suspect the Arc will come too soon for him.

If he were mine I'd be inclined to skip that Arc and keep Spanish Moon fresh for a big international race like the Japan Cup or Hong Kong Vase. He'd have a real shot in either of those contests.

VISION D'ETAT (41) ran a really good Arc Trial, finishing strongly under tender handling to take second by three quarters of a length. His trainer had warned beforehand that he'd need the run, and his jockey certainly rode him with his next race in mind. This triple Group 1 winner looks to have a better chance of success in the Arc than any older horse, barring perhaps Conduit who is surely more focused on a repeat win in the Breeders' Cup Turf later on.

Third placed CROSSHARBOUR (41) is tall but narrow. This almost certainly explains why he seems to be best when fresh. So far he has come into a race beyond a sprint trip off a break longer than five weeks on six occasions and won every single time.

This was a warm up for BUCCELLATI (40) following his most unlucky loss in the Coronation Cup where he got badly bruised when severely impeded by Frozen Fire.

Like a lot of horses that have missed work, Buccellati was very keen. Despite the strong early pace he was throwing his head about even with just half a mile to run. Soon after his lack of size got him into trouble once more as he found himself totally boxed in on the rail. He never managed to escape but I suspect would not have finished that much closer if he had.

With this run under his belt I'd bet on Buccellati bouncing back to his best next time.

As I've mentioned Buccellati has a history of meeting traffic problems. But in small fields he's been a near unstoppable force over longer trips. In fact, prior to his desperately unlucky Epsom loss he'd won six of the seven times he'd run in fields of twelve or less beyond ten furlongs.

Buccellati showed when winning that wild sprint finish to the Ormonde Stakes in May that he's got a better turn of foot than any middle distance horse in training. He's a seriously good Group 1 horse in my book and thoroughly deserves a success at the top level. He won't be going for the Arc as there will be too many runners. His big target is the Canadian International, a smart choice because the maximum field allowed there is twelve runners, which seems to be the limit for Buccellati.

PROVISO GETS INTERESTING FOR BREEDERS' CUP

PROVISO (39) has proven several times that she can produce a seriously fast and sustained sprint finish over a mile plus. So it was an interesting move by the always shrewd Andre Fabre to cut her back to seven furlongs for the Group 3 Prix du Pin at Longchamp. Sure enough, she produced a serious burst of speed to mow down her rivals and get up.

As a two year old Proviso won both times she ran seven furlongs. So this makes three wins out of three for the smart filly in sprints. No doubt she will now be steered towards the Prix Foret, often a weak Group 1. But the possibility that interests me more is the valuable Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. That race is over seven furlongs and Proviso is Breeders' Cup nominated. With Fabre having won more Breeders' Cup races than any foreign trainer he surely has the American race in mind. She certainly ran fast enough to have a big shot here.

GLADIATORUS SHOULD GO TO AMERICA

I've said before that GLADIATORUS (37) needs a turn to produce his best. His exuberant running style causes him to run out of puff on straight courses. Indeed he has run dreadfully all three times he's been tried on straight tracks.

Last week Gladiatorus finally got a turn to race around once more in the Prix du Moulin at Longchamp. But unfortunately for him the race was run on good to soft ground, and his kamikaze style of front running and stride pattern demand a faster surface.

Victory looked possible as Gladiatorus bombed seven lengths clear in the early stages. But he tired and got caught a furlong and a half from the finish to get beat just under five lengths.

Seeing how much faster he'd run than any of his Moulin rivals on several occasions I've little doubt that Gladiatorus would have won if the ground had been favourable.

Surely Gladiatorus will now be given a shot across the Pond. His running style and need for fast ground make him ideally suited to American racing. It's the Autumn, so if he sticks to Europe he'll be lucky to get his ground.

AQLAAM (41) tracked Gladiatorus in a distant second most of the way and eventually worked his way to the lead a furlong and a half out. Clearly this top heavy horse appreciated the cut in the ground because he's fractured a pelvis and a knee in the past.

If he were mine I'd be inclined to retire Aqlaam right now. He's secured the Group 1 win he needs to establish himself as a stallion. He's simply not fast enough to trouble Rip Van Winkle on my ratings in the QEII and might well not stand much more racing.

FAMOUS NAME (40) demonstrated once more why Dermot Weld says his best distance is nine furlongs by staying on nicely to take second. Unlike the winner he has yet to secure that vital Group 1 win. So I imagine he'll pretty soon be off to Bobby Frankel, his owner's trainer in America. Over there Famous Name will have plenty of nine furlong Grade 1 races. to run in. If he stays over here there's basically only the Prix d'Ispahan and the Dubai Duty Free, and I don't think Famous Name is quite good enough to win them.