FAIR MIX AND MARSHALL ARE AWFULLY SMART

FAIR MIX (43) is a stuffy horse who invariably needs a run to get him fit. His trainer warned before his last start that he might well blow up on the soft ground at a mile and a half off a break, and so it proved. But back at ten furlongs in the La Coupe de Maisons-Laffitte, a race he own in 2002, Fair Mix showed just how good he is by once again earning a seriously good Group 1 speed figure to score.

My read of Fair Mix is that he doesn't really get a mile and a half in decent company. Evidence for this is the fact that he's lost all eight times he's run over a mile and a half in Group 1 and Group 2 contests, finishing unplaced six times.

At ten furlongs or less Fair Mix has won six times out of eight when he's had a recent run. One of the losses was by a short neck. The other was at the stub end of the season in Italy where his stamina may well have given out on heavy ground.

Marcus Rolland, the trainer of Fair Mix, says that the horse's next target is a Group 1 race in Italy. I'd like to think he was talking about the ten furlong Premio Roma. But that's not till November. Most likely he was referring to the Gran Premio del Jockey Club, and that is over twelve furlongs at San Siro next month. Fair Mix's record suggests that he won't quite have the stamina for that race. I hope he returns to Italy for the Premio Roma afterwards. Following that he'd be a very interesting candidate for the Hong Kong Cup over ten furlongs rather than the Hong Kong Vase over 12 furlongs. Then again, they do tend to go a slow pace in long races in Hong Kong, so it could be the Hong Kong Vase is a viable target. The Breeders' Cup Turf would be tempting too, since US turf races are always slow run. In any event, Fair Mix is good enough to take another Group 1 somewhere in the next few months.

MARSHALL (43) ran a humongously big race to go under by only a short neck to such an accomplished international Group 1 performer. Clearly he is a far better horse now that he's going longer distances. In fact, he would have won all three times he'd raced beyond nine furlongs before this start on fast ground but for getting into all sorts of trouble when losing the Grand Prix de Bordeaux in a photo when gaining six lengths in the closing stages.

Marshall simply must have firm ground to run his best. So surely his best opportunities now lie in the big overseas races rather than at home in France. The Hong Kong Cup looks an obvious target for him too. He'd be very interesting in Australia's Caulfield Cup too. But where he'd be at his very best would surely be America, where his brilliant turn of foot and ability to act on firm ground might well make him a champion.

COMETE IS A THREAT IN FORET

COMETE (40) is a terrific mare when the ground is fast and showed just what she could do on her favourite surface when stepped up to Group 3 level for the Prix du Pin at Longchamp. She beat a strong field by two lengths.

At distances of less than ten furlongs, Comete has now won the last four times she's encountered what my going allowances say was good to firm or firmer ground. Her connections must now debate whether to send her straight to stud now that she's earned the all important black type or to supplement her for the Group 1 Pix Foret. If they choose to pay the supplementary fee I wouldn't discount her chances. Her trainer says she loves Longchamp and the Foret is usually a pretty soft Group 1.

On the same card HELIOS QUERCUS (33) ran a reasonable speed figure for a two year old running a mile to take the Group 3 Prix des Chenes. The Prix des Chenes translates as 'prize of the Oaks' and Quercus apparently means Oaks in latin. But you wouldn't have had to be a believer in coincidences to have picked Helios Quercus. He's now won five of his seven starts, with the two losses being over an inadequate five furlongs. The way the field finished stacked up at the end of teh race suggests that the early pace wasn't that great, so I suspect Helios Quercus can run a tad faster.

TOUPIE IS A VERY SMART JUVENILE

France finally produced some two year olds with decent speed ratings thanks to the fast run Prix d'Arenberg at Chantilly. This race was won with a good burst of speed by TOUPIE (37) who now rates as the joint fastest juvenile filly in Europe.

Toupie may be small but she's clearly got a lot of ability - providing the ground is fast. She's now lost all three times she's run on yielding or softer going but won all her three starts on good or faster. Incidentally, while I'm on the subject of French going, I think it's about time they junked the penetrometer. The readings that this device gives have absolutely no correlation with the actual speed of the surface on any given day. As a result, the official going reports in France are nonsensical. For example, the official going when Toupie won at Fontainebleau was heavy when race times clearly indicate it was good to firm.

In any event Toupie looks a great prospect for the two year old races to come. Her next objective is the six furlong Group 2 Criterium de Maisons Laffitte in October, the race won by the very smart Whipper last year.

Long term, Toupie might well be able to stretch her stamina to a mile. Her dam's only other foal to race so far was a winner over 6.5 furlongs, but all her siblings were basically milers. And most of the best progeny of Toupie's sire Intikhab have stayed a mile or more at three.

Runner-up CROSSOVER (37) is another highly promising filly. She was denied a clear run when finishing close up in a hot Listed race on her debut. After this she went under in a photo to the promising Private Banking. Now she has run her best race yet.

Crossover's dam Somfas has a pretty amazing record. She's now had eight foals to race, and six of them have placed in pattern company, with three of them winning Group races. Crossover will attempt to become the fourth Group winner Somfas has produced in the Group 3 Prix Eclipse coming up at Saint-Cloud. I'd say she has a great shot. Her jockey would agree because he said his mount ran a bit green here, rolling onto the third in the closing stages and becoming difficult to steer.

Cheveley Park entry SPECIALE (34) was sent off favourite on the back of her debut win in good time in Deauville's prestigious Prix Yacowlef-Haras des Monceaux (the only pattern race on the planet restricted to debutantes that I'm aware of). Unfortunately her jockey reported that she got boxed in. He said that he had to sit and suffer till the winner flew by late. When he finally got her out of the pocket it was far too late to do anything. Speciale ran a rating of 31 on her debut and 34 here. That's solid Group class. Speciale is bred to want a mile and is entered for the Marcel Boussac over that trip, so the five and a half furlongs here was probably a bit short for her. I wouldn't give up on her just yet.

The big Arc trials at Longchamp were all a bit slow run, with the winners all earning speed ratings several points below their best.

Most races which develop into a sprint finish following a slow pace end up with a whole stack of horses in a bunch at the line. This was the case in the Prix Niel, where little more than a length covered the first four.

VALIXIR (38) narrowly won the Prix Niel and might just be good enough for the Arc. After all he's won five of his eight starts, never run a bad race and finished a close and very game third in the Prix du Jockey Club. His shrewd trainer, Andre Fabre, has always said that Valixir would be at his best in the second half of the season, and so far he's been proven right, with his charge now having won both his starts since the race Brits still insist on calling 'the French Derby'.

Similar comments apply to runner-up PROSPECT PARK (38) who has a near-identical profile, having finished just ahead of Valixir in the Prix du Jockey Club.

You could easily argue that fourth-placed Lord du Sud (37) is also a possible Arc winner. After all, he met trouble in running here and had previously beaten Prospect Park when taking the Prix Hocquart. he thing is he's now run six times and, unlike the first three past the post, has yet to earn a speed rating close to Group 1 class. I therefore suspect he's going to be found wanting on the big day.

This leaves our old pal BAGO (37) who, for the third time in a row, demonstrated the trouble he has accelerating off a slow early pace. Trainer Jonathan Pease said afterwards "He was a bit one-paced when they accelerated but he didn't run that badly ... he just took a bit of time to get going.

As I've mentioned before, there are two ways you can argue this trait of Bago's. Either he's basically a mile and a half horse who needs a strong pace up front to run his best. Or he's conforming to his pedigree and racing like a dirt horse normally does on grass. Dirt runners don't have the instant acceleration that grass performers have.

For me, looking at Bago's pedigree and running style, I'd say the balance of probability is that he's now beginning to show the need for dirt that his pedigree suggests now that he's getting older. I've long had a theory that dirt-bred horses can run on grass at two and early in their three year old careers but that they need the surface they're bred for when they mature. his being so, I fervently hope that Bago now skips the Arc and is kept fresh for the Breeders' Cup Classic as originally planned. It could be that I'm wrong and that in a strongly run Arc Bago will re-find the form that previously enabled him to take three Group 1's. But I wouldn't bet on it.

The Prix Vermeille was even more of a scramble, with the first eight finishing in a heap. I doubt that the Arc winner contested that race or the four runner Prix Foy which was nine seconds slower than both the other Arc trials.

OMETSZ HAS BIG CHANCE IN CANADA

The Fibresand track at Deauville is developing a similar reputation to the Polytrack at Lingfield. Big trainers now use it quite often for their smart young maidens. This was certainly the case the other day when Criquette Head won both the colts' and the fillies' two year old maidens over 7.5 furlongs on the Fibresand at the Normandy course.

Criquette Head explained that the rain-softened ground at Deauville made the Fibresand track a more attractive proposition than grass for young horses like Le Reveur and Parole De Star who both scored for her. Afterwards she was very high on Le Reveur, outlining ambitious future plans for the colt. However, the clocks says that it is her other winner, the filly PAROLE DE STAR (31) that should be followed.

Parole De Star scored by four lengths in a time that was one and a half seconds faster than that achieved by Le Reveur in the colt's division. Her speed rating ranks as Listed class on my scale and she could well be Group class. Criquette Head says that Parole De Star will be stepped up gradually in class. I'll certainly be interested in her chances in a Listed or Group 3 race next time. The obvious concern is that she's American bred and her dam's side is basically all dirt. So it may be that she won't reproduce this form on grass. But in my experience dirt-bred runners can show their form on grass more often than not at two and even early on in their three year old careers. It's only when they mature, strengthen up and get more coordinated that their preference for dirt tends to express itself.

Another two year old winner worth noting is HYPNOTIC (33) who clocked a decent time to win a Listed race at Craon. Hypnotic's jockey said that his mount took every turn on the wrong lead but accelerated instantly when asked and could have produced more if he'd been asked.

Hypnotic has now won three of the four times he's run beyond six furlongs and is now entered in the Group 3 Prix des Chenes over a mile at Longchamp on the 18th of this month. The race he won at Craon was over an official 1650 meters or eight and a half furlongs. But French provincial tracks seem to have the same cavalier attitude towards the accuracy of their official distances as they do in Britain and Ireland. Race times suggest that the actual distance Hypnotic ran was actually a bit shy of a mile. In any event, his speed rating gives him a decent shot at Longchamp next time or in any other race around the Group 3 level at about a mile. And clearly, given his jockey's comments, he has a fair bit of scope for improvement.

Turning to the older horses, the three year old filly OMETSZ (38) put up a time that would win many Group 2 races for fillies when taking a red hot Listed race from a big field at Longchamp. Ometsz was apparently not at her best when running so poorly in the Prix de Diane but will soon get the chance to redeem herself at the top level. This is because her big target is now the E P Taylor stakes at Woodbine in Canada. Ometsz has now run faster than the average winner of that race, so I'd give her a big shot of taking the big prize money offered for that race thanks to the Casino Woodbine now operate.