RUSSIAN CROSS HAS A SERIOUS CHANCE IN CHAMPION STAKES

The Group 3 Prix du Prince d'Orange was very strongly contested this year. It was also very strongly run thanks to the ill fated River Proud who set a searching gallop before he sadly collapsed and died.

The horse that benefited most from the gallop was undoubtedly the winner NEVER ON SUNDAY (41). He was at least twenty lengths back in the early stages in last place but began to gain ground hand over fist approaching the straight as the early pace told. He hit the front around a furlong out and found a bit more than the runner up RUSSIAN CROSS (41) as the pair engaged in a protracted duel to the line.

Never On Sunday has a really long, raking stride and should have no trouble staying a mile and a half on this showing. His only two losses in eight lifetime starts were a short head defeat over an inadequate mile and a fourth place finish on his seasonal debut where he may well not have handled the heavy ground (or he could have simply been unfit).

Never On Sunday won't be supplemented to the Arc as the race comes too soon. It's hard to say just where he'll run next as he's up for auction at the sales the day before the Arc. He should attract a big price there.

I rather suspect that Russian Cross will turn out to be better than Never On Sunday as he probably stuck too close to what looked rather too strong a gallop.

It was remarkable just how smoothly Russian Cross traveled given the speed they were going. And halfway up the straight as he cruised into the lead he looked sure to win. But the winner is clearly very smart and the pace surely told. So Russian Cross did really well to go under by only a neck.

Russian Cross has the physique of an out and out ten furlong horse to my eye. And his owner is convinced he wouldn't last a mile and a half. So it's a shrewd idea to supplement him for the Champion Stakes as that race looks to offer him his best chance of Group 1 success in what remains of this year.

Russian Cross clearly has plenty of speed, so I suspect he's going to prove best on the fast ground he's been kept to so far. But he's so lightly raced it's hard to say for sure. Certainly he looks a very interesting prospect and looks to have a serious chance of success at Newmarket.

DID ZARKAVA LOSE THE ARC WHEN WINNING THE VERMEILLE

ZARKAVA (42) earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've ever given a three year old filly beyond a sprint trip when winning the Prix Vermeille in seriously fast time. In doing so she became the first filly in 35 years to win the French fillies Triple Crown - the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches, the Prix de Diane and the Prix Vermeille.

The early pace set by the Coolmore pacemake ADORED (38) was very strong. So when Cristophe Soumillon dropped Zarkava out to last leaving the stalls he quickly found himself far back, four lengths behind the second last horse. He closed the gap on the horse in front of him but allowed his mount to remain in last place most of the way, even yanking her back towards the rail to find more cover when she began to get a bit keen when seeing daylight on the outside with half a mile to run.

Entering the straight Soumillon pulled Zarkava to the outside and asked her for a run. And boy did she produce one. She powered home from there, gaining ground hand over fist to cover the last furlong and a half in an amazing 16.7 seconds. That's an amazing time for the closing stages of a very strongly run mile and a half race.

It was perhaps unfortunate in regards to her Arc chances that another high class filly was in the line up in DAR RE MI (41). This forced Zarkava to sustain her finishing effort for a remarkably long way to head off her rival and take the lead in the last fifty yards. As I watched her make her huge effort I couldn't help thinking that she'd have a hard time recovering from it in time to win the Arc.

Today's thoroughbreds are not as robust as those that were around in former years. They can't take a succession of hard races as well. This is surely why the last 21 attempts by fillies to win the Arc in the same year they took the Vermeille have all ended in failure.

I can see how you could argue that Zarkava has the physique to overcome this trend. She's a a big, strong, rangy filly that looks like a national hunt horse. This is hardly surprising. She's the first foal of an unraced dam whose two most successful siblings were the Grade 1 three mile chaser Zarkili and the useful hurdler Zariyan.

HENRYTHENAVIGATOR NEEDS LONGER

Aidan O'Brien blamed the 'soft' ground for the defeat of HENRYTHENAVIGATOR (39) in the Prix du Moulin. But although they were throwing up divots the time for the race was the second fastest since they switched it to the main course back in 1987. In fact race times for the entire card indicated the ground was good to firm.

As I see it the real reason for Henrythenavigator's loss was the distance. All season he's been scoring his big wins on courses with very long or uphill homestraights. Here on a basically dead flat track with a short homestraight he clearly struggled to go the pace.

Early on, as the pacemakers went at it hammer and tong, Henrythenavigator was far back and being ridden along. He made ground steadily in the closing stages and was finishing best of all to get beat only two lengths. In the last 100 yards especially he was picking up really strongly.

Early on this season O'Brien talked about running Henrythenavigator in the Derby. This is not surprising. His dam ran a close fourth in the Irish Oaks and his sister was a good ten furlong performer.

I know all the talk now is that Duke Of Marmalade will be Coolmore's runner in the Breeders' Cup Classic. But I have trouble seeing the big horse negotiating the very tight turns around Santa Anita's one mile oval. He'd surely be far better suited to the Breeders Cup Turf which is over a better distance for him and run on a track where an extended chute makes the course much more galloping in nature.

As I see it Henrythenavigator simply must go for the Breeders' Cup Classic. The ten furlongs should suit him perfectly. And the track's new Pro-Ride surface looks set to favour turf runners like him even more than Polytrack as it seems to produce no kickback at all.

With Big Brown being hugely over-rated judged on the times he's been clocking and Curlin deeply suspect on the surface and current form, the Breeders' Cup Classic is ripe for the picking by a European runner this year now that it's due to be run on a surface that favours them.

I'd like to see Henrythenavigator skip the QEII and ship out to California where an easy win in a minor prep race on Santa Anita's new synthetic track would set him up perfectly for a shot at the Breeders' Cup Classic.

My concern is that Henrythenavigator may have simply strengthened up and grown and will no longer be fully effective at a mile. With his old rival Raven's Pass and others in such good form I'd say it makes sense to sidestep Ascot and head out to California.

The winner of the Moulin was GOLDIKOVA (41), a good-bodied, muscular strong, classy looking filly that's clearly built for middle distances.

Golikova was able to win the Group 1 Prix Rothschild over a mile at Deauville on her previous start thanks to a searching early pace and some cut in the ground.

Initially I was dubious about her prospects of following up in this race as she was aided by a pacemaker in her two big wins over a mile and had Natagora to help push her pacemaker along early last time. But then I saw that not only did she have a pacemaker but Natagora did as well. So a decent rest of stamina seemed assured once more. And that's how it worked out. The two pacemakers went off really fast. Goldikova struck pretty close to them, kicked clear halfway up the straight then held off DARJINA (41).

I do hope Goldikova's connections don't make the mistake of going for the Breeders' Cup Mile. The slow early pace and sprint finish of that race make it best suited to horses that excel over 6-7f in Europe. The race for her at Santa Anita just has to be the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf. Though I concede she'd also be interesting for the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic (formerly the Distaff) over nine furlongs on Santa Anita's new Pro-Ride surface.

Goldiokova now ranks as fast as Zarkava on my speed ratings. She is unusually fast for a three year old filly. If she goes for the right race at Santa Anita I wouldn't dream of opposing her.

Darjina moved really well throughout the race, clearly appreciating the strong pace. But once more she just got done for a turn of foot, finishing second for the fifth time in a row.

I continue to believe that Darjina is crying out for a step up to ten furlongs. She's effective over a mile but is always going to be vulnerable to a horse with a turn of foot like Goldikova over the distance. Ten furlongs would bring her stamina into play, so I do hope she goes for the Prix L'Opera.

PACO BOY (40) proved that he does stay a mile by finishing a good third. He met traffic problems when losing the French Guineas and it may be that he's best in a small field, which for most horses means less than a dozen runners. This was his first defeat in six starts in races with eleven runners or less. He's clocked seriously fast times in each of his last two starts now and is clearly very useful at seven furlongs and a mile.

The strong pace pulled SAGEBURG (39) into the race in the closing. But in reality he remains a nine furlong specialist than can stretch his stamina to ten. He's won four times out of five at 9-10 furlongs and would be a champion in America where most big turf races are run over his ideal distance. In Europe he's not well catered for. But he does look a good thing for the Prix Dollar, one of the few big nine furlong races.

NATAGORA (34) was moving pretty well mid pack and looked set to run quite well until getting outsprinted by the first five in the final furlong. It surely wasn't a great idea cutting her back to a mile. Maybe she'll be effective at the distance on soft ground. But she surely needs to go back up to ten furlongs.

AMERICAIN WILL BE TOUGH TO BEAT IN PRIX CHAUDENAY

AMERICAIN (39) ran a fast time when just done for a turn of foot in a hot Listed race at Deauville. So his jockey decided to make it a real test of stamina in the Prix Lutece at Longchamp. The pair set a good pace and kicked on to open up a gap on their rivals in the closing stages. Unfortunately Americain jinked to the left, causing the strong finishing runner up SHEMIMA (38) to be taken up.

My feeling is that Americain would have won anyway. But the stewards disqualified him.

Previously I'd thought that Americain could cut back to a mile and a half successfully. But looking at him here I could see that he is actually rather long in the back for anything but a stayer. He's big and has a long stride on him. Clearly he's a two miler and needs this sort of distance to be fully effective.

Americain looks the one to beat in the Prix Chaudenay on this run.

Shemima is nothing like as big as the winner, so it was inevitable that she'd come off worst if her jockey hadn't yanked her back to stop the pair colliding. She came form a long way back here and showed an impressive turn of foot for a horse with such obvious stamina. She'd finished second to one of Europe's top fillies Dar Re Mi on her previous outing and will be a very interesting contender for the Prix de Royallieu at the Arc meeting.

CAPTAIN'S LOVER HAS A REAL SHOT IN FORET

CAPTAIN'S LOVER (40) was officially the Champion three year old filly in South Africa last season and showed she's going to be a force to be reckoned with in Europe when taking the Group 3 Prix du Pin. After sitting close to the scorching early pace, she made a decisive move to edge clear a furlong out and looked to win the race with a bit in hand.

Captain's Lover won five of her seven starts in South Africa, including the Group 1 Cape Fillies' Guineas. Her new trainer Andre Fabre said that she took a while to come to hand as he's had her for six months. He's now very happy with her though and plans to run her back in the Prix de la Foret over the same course and distance next month. On this run she must rate as one of the big players for that race. She's a wiry, muscular filly that's built for a turn of foot, which she showed here.

FUISSE LOOKS THE ONE FOR CRITERIUM DE SAINT-CLOUD

Not many French two year old races below Group class are run at a strong pace. But the one that FUISSE (36) won over a mile at Longchamp certainly was. And he ended up winning it in Group class time.

Fuisse is a big, tall sort with a huge stride. He actually looks like a steeplechaser. This is not surprising. His dam won three times over hurdles and was placed several times over fences (she never ran on the flat). Her first three foals were jumpers too. But then she produced Full Of Gold who won the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud over ten furlongs. Now it looks like she has another serious candidate for the same race in Fuisse.

Fuisse sat on the pacemaker's tail in the early stages then kicked on in the straight. He looked vulnerable to the strong finishers initially after he'd gone on but then picked up surprisingly well for a horse built like him to hold them all at bay.

I suspect that Fuisse will get done for a turn of foot if he lines up in the Jean-Luc Lagardere at the Arc meeting. But he does look a seriously good proposition for the big ten furlong race that his half brother won last season.

GETAWAY PROBABLY BEST FRESH

GETAWAY (42) scored a solid win over the globetrotting DOCTOR DINO (41) in the Grand Prix de Deauville. He chased his pacemaker for a long way then kicked on in the homestraight before holding the challenge of the runner up.

It does now seem clear that Getaway is best with a break between his runs. He's won all five times that he's come into a race off a break of five weeks or more and lost the last five times he hasn't. His shrewd trainer, Andre Fabre, seems to agree with me because he ran him here, five weeks before the Arc rather than wait a fortnight for the traditional Arc Trial for older horses, the Prix Foy.

Getaway is probably good enough to win an Arc. And he's won a half or more of his starts like fourteen of the last fifteen Arc winners. My concern is that there's usually some underlying physical problem which causes horses to best when they're fresh, and winners of big international races like the Arc rarely suffer from such problems.

Doctor Dino deserves some sort of award for being the most consistent Group 1 horse on the planet. He should have a major chance in the Canadian International before he attempts to win the Hong Kong Vase for a second year running.

POSEIODON ADVENTURE (41) got within two and a quarter lengths of the top class Oriental Tiger at Cologne earlier this year and ran another big race here. He's run nothing but big races over twelve and twelve and a half furlongs. I can readily see this Coolmore cast-off scoring in a weak Group 1 over a mile and a half at huge odds.

Argentine import CANDY GIFT (41) ran an eye-catching race. Entering the straight he was stone last. But he finished best of all and was closing rapidly in the final fifty yards to be a close fourth.

In Argentina Candy Gift's sole loss in five tries at middle distances came in South America's most prestigious race, the Carlos Pellegirni, where he finished a close third. After two sub par efforts on his first two French starts, this run showed that Candy Gift is rounding into form. I suspect Fabre will be able to place him to win a decent prize before long

LAA RAYB HAS THE ABILITY TO WIN THE FORET

Racing purists will debate at length the relative merits of famous horses that win strings of races. But as a punter I prefer 'quirky' but brilliant horses like Oriental Tiger and LAA RAYB (41) every time. They offer far better value.

Laa Rayb has hung, carried his head high and even dumped his rider in recent races. But give him a field of nine or less or one of the two outermost draws and he's awfully tough to beat. He seems to need these circumstances because he dislikes being crowded in a race.

Laa Rayb was drawn right out in the centre of the course at Deauville in the Group 3 Prix Quincy, a race that attracted only eight runners. So it figured to suit him admirably. Sure enough he came through, moving powerfully to take the lead well before the two furlong pole. But when jockey Frankie Dettori asked him to kick clear Laa Rayb looked decidedly unhappy. He opened up a break on his rivals with no problem but as soon as he did his head came up and he began to wander all over the place. Dettori sensibly allowed him to drift right across the track to the rail, knowing that a lot of horses prefer a rail to race against. Indeed the closer he got to the rail the more relaxed Laa Rayb became. He actually passed the post racing pretty much like a normal horse.

Dettori kept Laa Rayb right up to his work in the closing stages. As a result the horse clocked his best ever time.

On this run Laa Rayb is capable of matching strides with pretty much anything over a mile or seven furlongs when he gets his favoured circumstances. It now seems clear that he doesn't like to hit the front too soon. So the experiment of making the running with him last time out looks unlikely to be repeated.

If a small field lines up for the Prix Foret or Laa Rayb gets one of the two widest draws I'd give him a serious chance of scoring a Group 1 win. His connections have learned a lot about him in recent starts and will know how to place and ride him in future.