FRENCH NAVY SHOULD BE DERBY FAVOURITE

I was amazed when the bookies made Helleborine favourite for the 1000 Guineas after her recent win in the Prix d'Aumale. She doesn't look that fast to me and no Prix d'Aumale winner has run in the 1000 Guineas since 1982.

Now I'm equally amazed the bookies have chosen to ignore French Navy's win in the Prix des Chenes. He was switched from Sheikh Mohammed's ownership to Godolphin just before the race, and it's surely odds on that he'll be transferred to their British operation next season and supplemented for the Derby. On what he's shown I'm convinced he should be favourite for the Derby but he's not even listed in the betting as I write this.

FRENCH NAVY (38) has looked like the top French two year old ever since he first set foot on a racecourse. He'd won his first two starts comfortably but finally had to extend himself when stepped up to Group 3 company for the Prix des Chenes at Longchamp last Sunday.

French Navy's jockey Maxime Guyon said he was worried about the possibility of a sprint finish. This is understandable. French Navy is a big, strong, tall, deep chested, long striding colt that's built for a mile and a half.

Guyon's fears were realised when the tiny field reached the three furlong from home point a whopping 4.5 seconds later than they did in the fastest race on the course. the debutantes race for colts. But French Navy displayed real class to win the ensuing sprint finish in a long duel with the clearly very smart runner up HAVANE SMOKER (37). The pair came home a remarkable 2.7 seconds quicker over the last three furlongs than they did in the debutantes race (which was won by a future Group racer unless I'm much mistaken). The sectional timing formula I use to adjust my ratings for sprint finishes suggests this was a proper Group 1 class performance.

Havane Smoker is an athletic sort that's built for ten furlongs and to produce a smart turn of foot. He had French Navy at full stretch for about two furlongs till his rival's superior stamina kicked in and he started to edge away in the closing stages to win with just a bit in hand. This was a tremendous performance by a colt that had won all three of his previous starts. He and the winner rapidly pulled five lengths clear of the rest as they engaged in their duel - invariably a sure sign of class.

Havane Smoker is entered in the Jean-Luc Lagardere over seven furlongs at the Arc meeting but would surely do better to keep to a mile if he's to win a Group 1 race this year and target the Criterium International. Most likely he'd face French Navy again there. But the field will probably be bigger so there's a chance the Godolphin colt's run might be interrupted and he wouldn't get going again in time seeing how he lengthens rather than quickens.

Next year the Prix du Jockey Club would be the obvious target for Havana Smoker. Given his physique I'd say he'll be like his sire and sole sibling Red Amy and not stay a mile and a half.

This run shows that French Navy could be vulnerable over the mile of his obvious target, the Criterium International. There's only a two and a half furlong homestraight in that race at Saint-Cloud. And the finishes can get messy in the likely soft ground as the jockeys all try to work their way to the stands rail where the ground rides faster. I can see French Navy meeting traffic problems or being forced to race on slower ground due to his lack of push-button acceleration over a distance well short of his optimum.

As I've mentioned before, if he were mine the race I'd be shooting for with French Navy is the Racing Post Trophy. The straight course at Doncaster would give this relentless galloper every chance of finding a run and also bring his stamina into play.

GALIKOVA SHOULD GO FOR MARCEL BOUSSAC

The one mile debutantes race for juvenile fillies at Longchamp in September is usually a race well worth watching with the Prix Marcel Boussac in mind. It's normally called the Prix de la Cascade (except for a couple of years when it was sponsored). And the winners have done rather well in the Marcel Boussac, as you can see from their recent record

2009 Wedding March fourth

2008 Palme Royale ninth

2007 Zarkava WON

2002 Etoile Montante second

2001 Danseuse Etoile second

*2000 Prove ninth

1999 Lady Of Chad WON

1997 Loving Claim WON

1994 Macoumba WON

*In 2000 another mile maiden at Longchamp run five days after the Prix de la Cascade was won by Amonita who went on to take the Marcel Boussac next time.

This year's winner of the Prix de la Cascade was Goldikova's half sister GALIKOVA (37) and I have to rate her a Group 1 filly on this run after adjusting my speed figure for the slow early pace and sprint finish.

Galikova broke well and settled in a close second place, moving easily. She was running straight as a die but her ears were going all over the place like little radar scanners - just as you see so often with inexperienced horses.

The sprint finish began entering the straight but jockey Olivier Peslier waited until just before the furlong pole before asking her for an effort. She quickly put her rivals away and only had to be ridden along with hands and heels to comfortably hold the late run of the second.

Galikova is a well proportioned, well balanced filly that's clearly built to produce a decent turn of foot and has the same kind of build as Goldikova - except that she looks designed to go a little further (which is hardly surprising seeing her sire is Galileo). This run also showed that despite having a fast ground action like her half sister she can get through a soft surface better than her.

Head commented after the race "She is well behaved. But there can be no comparison with Goldikova, her sister! This a filly that has nothing to do with her sister, she has her own aptitudes, being a less speedy sort. She is a filly that I love, who will progress and certainly be good next year. She showed here she is a professional, but she must learn to run."

Head also said he felt Galikova was too immature to run in the Marcel Boussac and that she'd probably go for the Group 3 Prix des Reservoirs instead. I hope he changes his mind because I think she would be the one to beat if she tackled that race. If she did run there she'd give Head a chance of winning both Group 1 juvenile races at the Arc meeing since he has the very speed Midnight Cloud for the Jean-Luc Lagardere.

Runner up SHAMARDANSE (35) is a light-framed, leggy, immature filly that looks much more a horse for next season over longer distances. It's understandable that she stayed on so well as four of her five winning siblings stayed the St Leger trip or further. The best two were Varevees who ran second in the Group 1 Prix du Cadran over two and a half miles and smart staying hurdler Magic Mambo who has won over three miles.

MAXIOS LOOKS SMART

MAXIOS (35) is very reminiscent of his half brother Bago, being athletic, wiry and well proportioned. He looks to have a fair amount of ability too judged by his win in a very strongly run debutantes race over a mile at Longchamp.

Thanks to the green runner up pulling his way to the front and setting a strong gallop, Maxios had a nice lead and was able to come through and quicken away in the closing stages to score by four lengths. He raced like an old hand here though he never came under serious pressure. He only clocked a Group 3 class time but won comfortably so there must be a good chance he can make the jump to Group 1 company.

Right now the only Group race entry Maxios holds is for next year's Derby. I guess there's a chance he'll shoot for the Criterium de Saint-Cloud over then furlongs. But most likely it's next year that we'll see the best of him.

BEHKABAD VERY HARD TO OPPOSE FOR ARC NOW

BEHKABAD (45) ran amazingly fast to take the Prix Niel from old rival PLANTEUR (45). And though he only won by a short neck and Planteur also ran an incredible time he clearly demonstrated once more that he has a good deal more acceleration than Planteur and is probably always going to be able to quicken past him over a mile and a half.

Behkabad adopted his normal pace pressing tactics and initially sat second behind Planteur's pacemaker who was setting a searching gallop. But Planteur's jockey seemed to be anxious not to ask his mount to once more try and come from behind Behkabad so he hustled him to pass the green colours and establish a couple of lengths buffer for when Behkabad made his charge.

Entering the straight Planteur was fairly cruising and there was no way the pace could quicken enough to catch him flat-footed because his pacemaker had done such a good job. Unfortunately a glace at Behkabad a couple of lengths behind revealed that he was moving equally well.

The race didn't begin in earnest between the pair until a furlong and a half out. It looked clear that neither Anthony Crastius on Planteur or Christophe Lemaire on Behkabad wanted to go for everything with the Arc just three weeks away. So each was trying to see if they could put the race to bed without riding their mounts hard. But a furlong and a half out it was obvious that wasn't going to be possible.

Crastius had to ride a bit harder because Lemaire was trying to win as narrowly and cheekily as he could. Crastius had no choice but to keep riding Planteur hard with Behkabad still in his sights.

Behkabad was always going to get up once he started his run. But Planteur stretched his old rival a bit more than he had in the Grand Prix de Paris, going under by a short neck this time instead of three parts of a length.

The merit of Behkabad and Planteur can be seen from the fact that they reached the hedge - a bit more than three furlongs from home - 0.8 of a second sooner than Midday and co did in the Prix Vermeille but still managed to come home from there another 0.8 of a second faster. This means the 1.6 second difference in time between the two races is an accurate measure of the difference in ability between Behkabad and Planteur and Europe's top fillies. They're a monstrous eight lengths faster.

Behkabad was really moving in the final quarter mile. He covered the penultimate furlong in 11.7 seconds and the final one in 11.9.

As the pair dueled they rapidly opened up a four length gap on their rivals. It was an absolutely top class effort from both of them, meriting the best speed ratings I've awarded two horses in a race in years.

You have to feel sorry for Planteur. Take Behkabad away and he would have won the Grand Prix de Paris by five lengths and this race by four - both in seriously fast time. He'd probably be even money for the Arc now, and justifiably so.

Planteur is taller and slightly less coordinated than Behkabad who is more compact and athletic. You could say the difference between the pair is like that between an SUV and a sports car. But that would be unfair on Planteur who would surely be regarded as a Champion in almost any other season.

If there's any justice Behkabad will be retired after the Arc and Planteur will stay in training next season to give him a chance to earn his own place in the spotlight.

The obvious concern about this performance for both him and Behkabad is that it could knock either or both of these fine three year olds off form, just as that huge run in the Voltigeur probably did with Rewilding.

However Rewilding had to chase after a smart rival for a long part of the five furlong homestraight at York while Behkabad and Planteur only hooked up for a furlong and a half here. And while Rewilding had previously shown that he was best when freshened up that's not the case with either Behkabad or Planteur. The clincher is the sub 12 second final furlong here. Horses don't run that fast at the end of a race if they're tired.

Most likely both Behkabad and Planteur will be able to produce their best once more in the Arc. If they do my ratings suggest they're going to pull clear of all their opponents for the third time in a row and give us another fine exhibition of class. That's certainly the way I'll be betting. I see the straight forecast of Behkabad to beat Planteur in the Arc as a fabulous bet.

Italian raider KIDNAPPING (42) ran a tremendous race to take third. Like his Group 1 winning half brother Jakkalberry, he's a tall, strong proper mile and a half sort that almost certainly needs a decent gallop to produce his best. He got that here and, though he couldn't go with the first two, showed that he's going to be winning Group 1 races of his own sooner rather than later.

Previously the only time Kidnapping had lost in four starts over middle distances was when he ran sixth in a huge field for the Derby Italiano. There he kept getting crowded and bumped when challenging up the homestraight and then had to be taken up sharply a furlong out.

Kidnapping won the 12 furlong Gran Premio d'Italia at San Siro by nearly four lengths on his previous outing. That is a valuable and invariably hotly contested Listed race that used to hold Group 1 status. He will surely go for the Gran Premio del Jockey Club over the same course and distance next month where I'd bet on him gaining his first Group 1 win.

Fourth placed VICTOIRE PISA (39) needed the run according to his trainer. And his jockey seemed to ride him accordingly. He seemed perfectly happy to let his mount slip back to last place around the home turn - something you don't want to do at Longchamp because the finishes are invariably between those that are within a length or three turning in.

Victoire Pisa moved up threateningly just after the two furlong from home marker but then seemed to blow up and was not given a hard time in the closing stages.

It's hard to believe that Victoire Pisa won the Japanese 2000 Guineas when you look at him because he's a tall, scopey, deep chested, rangy sort that looks built for every inch of a mile and a half. In fact the Japanese 2000 Guineas is a ten furlong race and before this run Victoire Pisa had won four of the five times he'd run that distance or further - his sole loss being a good third in the Japanese Derby.

Victoire Pisa is clearly a proper Group 1 horse. And he looks sure to improve on this effort in the Arc. However I have to say his physique makes him more suited to the searching gallop that's the norm in Japanese racing rather than the sprint finishes which so often occur in France.

I see Victoire Pisa as a very interesting contender for the Japan Cup, but I suspect he'll get caught flat-footed at a vital stage in the Arc.

PLUMANIA SHOULD GO FOR FILLY & MARE TURF

The rail was touching the hedge around the home turn on the Grande course at Longchamp last Sunday, indicating the rail was at its innermost configuration. Yet the time of a very strongly run Prix Niel was 6.2 seconds off the track record. This means the ground was yielding and that just doesn't suit PLUMANIA (40) at all.

On fast ground Plumania has shown that she can produce an extraordinary burst of finishing speed. But she didn't loom very comfortable on this surface and was unable to pick up as she usually does. To finish second to a filly as good as Midday was remarkable in the circumstances.

Plumania has already beaten males in a Group 1 earlier this season and would be a very interesting runner in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. That figures to be a red hot race this year with the brilliant Japanese filly Red Desire set to take part. But Plumania has shown that she has the turn of foot needed to win US turf races. In fact I reckon she can finish almost as strongly as Red Desire. If she were mine I'd sidestep the Arc because I can't see her beating Behkabad and Planteur. The Filly & Mare Turf is the race for her.

I'm not sure it's a great idea asking the winner MIDDAY (40) to run in that race again. Trainer Henry Cecil has repeatedly voiced concerns this year that she's now grown into a very heavy shouldered sort that hits the ground too hard on firm turf. Indeed she'd looked uncomfortable and shifted her ground in all three of her previous starts this term. Here, even on yielding ground, she changed her legs about a furlong out.

It can obviously rain at this time of year in Kentucky. But usually the ground rides firm around Churchill Downs. And at the end of a long season the turf is pretty sparse and the surface has been compressed by hundreds of horses so it can ride really hard.

SARAFINA (39) kept on strongly to take third, not picking up as well or running as fast as she did when winning the Prix de Diane on faster ground. I think her finishing speed got blunted by the surface just as Plumania's was. I hope she goes for the Prix l'Opera rather than the Arc as I'd see her as a decent bet on fast ground in that race because she looks more a ten furlong horse to me.

NAKAYAMA FESTA HAS BEST ARC CHANCE OF OLDER RUNNERS

The record will show that DUNCAN (33) won the Prix Foy. But in reality it was his jockey William Buick who secured victory by setting a crawl of a pace then catching his rivals napping by sprinting the last three furlongs.

Duncan reached the three furlong from home point about 5.7 seconds later than they did in the Prix Niel. But the rider on his nearest pursuer TIMOS (32) had allowed him a two and a half length lead at that point. It was the same distance again back to third placed NAKAYAMA FESTA (33).

The inevitable wild sprint finish ensued. Timos was never going to be able to catch Duncan as he's a big, one-paced boat of a horse. And Nakayama Festa would have needed to go faster than it's possible for a horse to run to win from where he was.

The fact that Nakayama Festa was able to get to within half a length of Duncan is a testament to the tremendous ability of the Japanese horse.

I love the idea behind the Takarazuka Kinen, the Japanese Group 1 race that Nakayama Festa won on his previous outing. Japanese racing fans are invited to nominate the horses they would most like to see compete and the top eighteen in the voting get invited to run.

This year's Takarazuka Kinen featured the usual red hot field but Nakayama Festa mowed them all down with a tremendous late burst to win by half a length and a shade comfortably.

Runner up was Buena Vista who looked so good in Dubai where she proved she's a proper international class Group 1 performer.

That win clearly marks Nakayama Festa out as one of the best mile and a half horses on the planet. It's obvious from his past form and from watching the race that he really should have won the Prix Foy cosily and would have nine times out of ten.

Nakayama Festa is of average height but is a rather narrow horse. His weight on his last five starts has ranged from 452 to 464 kilograms. That's about sixty pounds lighter than the average horse.

Due to his physique Nakayama Festa seems to need keeping fresh to produce his best form. He won a Listed race on his second outing at two without a break but all his other four wins have come off breaks of two months or more. He'd won all three times he'd run beyond ten furlongs off a break of two months plus before this run and should have made it four out of four here.

Nakayama Festa dislikes traffic according to his jockey. He prefers to race alone. This is why he deliberately steered him wide of the other runners when taking the 17 runner Takarazuka Kinen.

I suspect Nakayama Festa dislikes traffic because his light-frame means he comes off worst in any bumping he encounters and lacks the bulk to force his way through openings. However his connections see it as just another example of his renowned quirky behaviour.

Nakayama Festa is apparently a high strung, temperamental horse that dislikes traveling. This is why his trainer shipped him down to Hanshin early and trained him there when he had to travel for his big win last time. He repeated the tactics this time around by flying the horse in to France over a month before the Prix Foy and even brought along a traveling companion to keep him calm.

A couple of days ago trainer Yoshitaka Ninomiya reported: "His fitness level is good and he is well prepared for the race." This doesn't surprise me. Light-framed, nervous types like him pretty much get themselves fit at home without the need for racing - something the horse's record demonstrates.

The question now is whether Nakayama Festa can hold his condition for the Arc. My suspicion, and it's partly based on respect for his trainer, is that he can. After all Ninomiya very nearly won the Arc with El Condor Pasa a few years back after he'd won the Prix Foy and Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud. He's clearly mastered the tricky task of getting a horse to show its best form abroad after the lengthy journey from Japan. Equally important is that Nakayama Festa was only running at racing pace for two and a half furlongs in this race.

At the searching pace of Japanese racing it's no surprise a light-framed nervous sort like Nakayama Festa needed big breaks between his runs. But this was hardly a run. It was a two and a half furlong gallop and cannot have been very taxing.

Any horse that can win five times from ten starts in Japan while racing in pattern company as Nakayama Festa has must be seriously good because the JRA deliberately restricts the number of pattern races to ensure huge field sizes and extremely competitive contests for the top Japanese races. Clearly Nakayama Festa is seriously good. He might even be the best horse in Japan. If any older horse is going to beat or split Behkabad and Planteur in the Arc I'd say he's much the most likely to do so.

Third placed Timos had won three of the four previous times he'd encountered cut in the ground. He's a big, top heavy sort that's had a history of injuries and needs a bit of cushion in the surface. But he's one-paced, so it was most surprising his jockey allowed Duncan to saunter by him early instead of kicking on and ensuring a decent gallop.

Timos rolled around in the closing stages for the umpteenth time here. He doesn't seem able to switch leads exiting the home turn and tends to get unbalanced for this reason. But at least this time he didn't hamper any of his rivals as he has in the past. When he gets his ground he should win a Group race.

Fourth placed BYWORD (32) finished strongly but from too far back. The pace was so slow this run tells us nothing about whether he can get a mile and a half. His trainer Andre Fabre seemed pretty confident that he couldn't earlier this season, so I wouldn't be expecting Byword to be springing any surprises if he lines up for the Arc.

DARYAKANA (31) needs a fast surface and has a dreadful record in small fields, so she ran as well as could be expected. I think she's as good as ever and deserves another shot in a big field on fast ground to prove it.

MOONLIGHT CLOUD IS SERIOUSLY FAST

If you wanted to design the perfect racehorse for sprinting you'd come up with something very close to MOONLIGHT CLOUD (36). She's very close-coupled, has a short neck, is muscular and has phenomenal leg speed when she accelerates. The wonder is she's been able to stretch her stamina to win over six and a half furlongs on her debut and fourty yards short of seven furlongs at Longchamp last week on soft ground.

At Longchamp the early pace was a crawl but she picked up tremendously well to cover the last three furlongs nearly a second quicker than they did in the big Tierce handicap for older horses over the same trip. Early on her rider , Davy Bonila, had yanked her back from the lead to settle in behind the slow early gallop. And she's so manouverable he had time to casually exchange a few words with the rider of the horse he left in the lead.

In the homestraight Bonila sat stock still and simply let out a bit of rein, allowing Moonlight Cloud to show that amazing leg speed and cruise away from her rivals as if the race was no more than a morning exercise gallop.

It had been a similar story on Deauville's oiled Fibresand surface first time out where she accelerated sharply with very little effort to leave her rivals floundering up the homestraight - covering the last three furlongs a full second quicker than they did in the colt's division of the same race. I'm basing my speed rating for her on that run which she can clearly improve on.

Freddie Head says that Moonlight Cloud is the best two year old he's ever trained, and I don't think he's indulging in hyperbole. The filly has any amount of speed and who knows how fast she could run when fully extended.

Moonlight Cloud's big upcoming objective is the Group 1 Jean-Luc Lagardere over the same short seven furlongs at the Arc meeting. I had thought My Name Is Bond was the one to beat there. But having seen this performance I'd be wary of opposing Freddie Head's speedball.

Right now Moonlight Cloud is running like a five furlong sprinter that can somehow keep going at the same pace for seven furlongs. Whether this will continue to be true at the stronger pace she'll encounter in Group company is open to question.

Next year I'd bet on Moonlight Cloud cutting back to five and six furlongs. But it would be intriguing to see if she could stretch her stamina to a mile. She's already running further than her physique says she should be able to go, so I can't say she won't last another furlong.

HELLEBORINE USEFUL BUT A LIKELY NO SHOW FOR GUINEAS

It's hard to put a number on the performance of HELLEBORINE (35) in the Prix d'Aumale at Longchamp last week because the early pace was slow and they didn't quicken up till after the three furlong pole. But they came home 0.9 of a second quicker over the last three furlongs than in the other race for 2YO fillies over the same course and distance which was even slower run, so I'm prepared to believe that would have been something like the difference between the two races if they'd gone a decent gallop from the start in each. That suggests a solid Group 3 class performance.

No question Helleborine could run quicker. Clearly she'd do better on faster ground judged by her stride pattern and trainer/jockey comments. Plus she had a fair bit in hand.

Helleborine is a well balanced, useful looking sort with a fast ground action and can produce terrific acceleration judged by the way she scuttled away from her rivals in the Prix d'Aumale.

I see her as a serious contender for the Marcel Boussac and next year the Prix de Diane. I imagine she'll shoot for the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches first. But my read of her physique is that she's going to do better over the Prix de Diane trip of ten and a half furlongs. I know she's a sister to African Rose but her dam was a mile and a half performer and her other siblings two wins came over middle distances.

I think it was highly misleading for the bookies to install Helleborine as favourite for the 1000 Guineas after this run. She's no more likely to run there than a British filly would be likely to tackle the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches. In fact you have to go back to 1982 to find a Prix d'Aumale winner that went on to run in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket. And from what I've read trainer Criquette Head hasn't said anything about targeting that race rather than the French Classics.

There are some very good juvenile fillies around this year. So Helleborine is no cert to win the Boussac (a race no Prix d'Aumale winner has taken since 1988). She is interesting though and worth keeping an eye on.

CIRRUS DES AIGLES SEEMS UNSTOPPABLE AT LONGCHAMP

CIRRUS DES AIGLES (40) continued his build up to the Hong Kong Vase with yet another win at Longchamp when taking a hot Listed contest last Wednesday.

Allowed to set a slow pace by his rivals, Cirrus Des Aigles came out best in a wild sprint finish up the straight where I suspect they ran around 22 seconds flat for the final quarter mile (though camera angles prevented me from taking the sectional times). His jockey was trying to win cheekily but the second and third are very smart horses, so Cirrus des Aigles had to be ridden out to score narrowly.

So far Cirrus des Aigles has run five times beyond a mile at Longchamp and won every single time. The previous time he ran at France's premier track was in the Group 2 Prix du Conseil de Paris last year where he bombed home by six lengths to clock a Group 1 class time.

You'd have to be pretty brave to bet against Cirrus des Aigles making it six in a row at Longchamp in the Prix Dollar at the Arc meeting. And if he wins there he'll be shooting for seven in a row when attempting back to back wins in the Prix du Conseil de Paris before going to Hong Kong.

Last year Cirrus Des Aigles was rather unlucky in the Hong Kong Vase, getting beat just a length after being forced to race wide the whole way. He was only a three year old back then and should have a better shot of taking the big race now he's more mature.

Like the winner, runner up THREE BODIES (40) seems to have had a very light campaign with big international targets in mind later on. He gave supporters of the winner a bit of a fright when kicking into overdrive in the final hundred yards to get within a neck of the winner.

Three Bodies doesn't seem to like the relatively tight track at Compiegne. But he's excelled around more galloping courses, winning three of his last four. In his only other loss around galloping tracks since his first two starts Three Bodies ran second to subsequent Eclipse runner up Sri Putra in the Prix Guillame d'Ornano, with narrow Dubai World Cup loser Allybar third, Prince Of Wales winner Byword fourth and Arlington Million winner Debussy sixth.

I imagine the connections of Three Bodies will be hoping for an invite to run in Hong Kong. To make sure of that they probably need to win a good Group race first and the Prix Dollar is the obvious option. Cirrus des Aigles stands in his way there and it will be a fascinating re-match.

AIZAVOSKI (40) ran a huge race to finish a very close third over an inadequate distance on ground that was too fast for him. He lacks acceleration, so it's understandable the first two were edging away from him in the sprint finish. But the ground should be more suitable for him in at least one of his remaining races this year - hopefully the Pris Gladiateur later this month where he'd be going a more suitable distance.

CHAUDENAY PROBABLY A REPLAY OF LUTECE

Eight of the last eleven winners of the Prix Chaudenay reached the first three in the Prix de Lutece over the same course and distance. Seeing how fast they went in this year's Prix de Lutece I'd bet on that stat reading nine out of twelve after this year's Prix Chaudenay has been run at the Arc meeting.

BRIGNATIN (39) and SHAMANOVA (39) pulled clear of the rest in the Lutece and look the two to concentrate on in the Prix Chaudenay.

Brigantin settled last behind the searching early gallop with the filly Shamanova one place in in front of him. Just after halfway both closed up. Then they came through to challenge in the straight and pulled clear of the rest as they dueled.

Brigantin rolled by the filly inside the final furlong to win by just under a length. There's clearly not much between the pair but it did look like he had a little in hand and is just the best.

Brigantin was probably unfit on his seasonal debut. He's passed the post first in five of his other eight starts and run second to three smart colts in his three losses - all of whom may well turn out to be Group 1 class. He'd actually run just as fast as this when second in a red hot renewal of the Derby Du Midi over a mile and a half. So clearly he's versatile. However, the way he stayed on so strongly off such a searching pace to win with something in reserve tells me he's better over longer distances like this.

Next year I can readily see Brigantin developing into an Ascot Gold Cup candidate.

Shamanova is smaller, as you'd expect with a filly. She kept on well and has now reached the first two in all six of her starts. Her half sister Shamdala won the Prix Chaudenay back in 2005 before taking the Group 1 Gran Premio di Milan over a mile and a half and running a close second in the Group 1 Prix du Cadran over two and a half miles. Shamanova is running just as fast as Shamdala was at the same stage and is just unlucky to have born at the same time as the strongest crop of French colts in at least a decade.

FRENCH NAVY DOES IT AGAIN

FRENCH NAVY (37) barely had to break sweat to maintain his record in a good Conditions race over a mile at Deauville. This deep chested, mature, good-bodied, classy looking sort showed serious speed to win the sprint finish by nearly two lengths. And you didn't need to hear the commentator's description of 'tres facilement' (very easy) to recognise how cosily he won the race.

The time was slow and they only went a proper gallop for the last two furlongs. But I'm happy to award him the big rating lines of form suggest as he'd run to the same mark when winning on his debut.

I imagine French Navy will be switched to the Godolphin operation in Britain next year and supplemented for the Derby. On what he's shown to date I have to say he looks the most likely winner we've seen. He should stay the mile and a half and is a well balanced sort that ought to handle the track. He certainly looks to have the ability to win it too.

This year French Navy has a big shot of taking either the Criterium International or the Criterium de Saint-Cloud, especially the latter event as the ten furlongs would suit him admirably. But from a punting perspective the race I'd love to see him supplemented for is the Racing Post Trophy. He'd surely start a big price there and I reckon he'd be tough to beat.

MY NAME IS BOND A SERIOUS PLAYER IN JEAN-LUC LAGARDERE

MY NAME IS BOND (35) only clocked an average time for the class when winning the Group 3 Prix de la Rochette over the short seven furlongs at Longchamp (it's actually six furlongs and 180 yards). But the style of his win suggests he's going to be a serious player in the Group 1 Jean-Luc Lagardere over the same course and distance at the Arc meeting.

Held up last, My Name Is Bond swept down the outside with his jockey, Christophe Soumillon, barely moving a muscle. It was a sprint finish but he was traveling so easily Soumillon was able to take a long look across at his rivals as he sauntered by them inside the last furlong before deciding he didn't need to get after his mount at all.

The question is just how much more My Name is Bond could have pulled out. It looked pretty clear he could have extended his margin by at least a couple of lengths. And that would take him into Group 1 territory.

Monsieur Bond clearly improved markedly for the step up in distance. In fact you could make a case on his physique for him getting a mile, though his pedigree says seven furlongs is likely to be his maximum. He clearly has a tremendous turn of foot and looks a very pacey sort that's designed for a fast surface. I doubt he'd be able to produce the same level of form on soft ground. If it comes up fast for the Arc meeting I'd be wary of opposing him in the Jean-Luc Lagardere.