HONG KONG VASE APPEALING TARGET FOR FEBRUARY SUN

DJUMAMA (39) looked a good thing for the Mercedes-Benz Stuten Preis von Baden seeing how well she'd finished to take second to Dancing Rain in the Preis der Diana (German Oaks). But she just got beat by the French raider February Sun in a wild sprint finish following an early crawl.

The fillies simply cantered around the track and the sprint for home didn't even begin till two and a half furlongs from home as they were rounding the tight home turn. They were at full tilt over the last quarter mile which they ran in 22 seconds flat. I've adjusted my rating to take account of this.

February Sun was three lengths ahead of Djumama when the sprint began two and a half furlongs out and still over two lengths ahead when they were really gunning it at the two furlong pole. Djumama tried valiantly to catch her and the pair rapidly pulled clear of the rest in the final furlong when she started challenging. Her effort fell short by a neck but her two length gain in the closing stages means she ran the last quarter mile in just 21.7 seconds.

The turn of foot Djumama showed here makes me think she'll have no problem cutting back a furlong in distance. But I'm not sure it's a great idea to take up her entry in the Prix l'Opera over that trip. She's certainly good enough to win a fillies' Group 1 but the Prix l'Opera is shaping up as a seriously hot race this year as it features four older fillies and mares that have shown smart form against top males (i.e. Announce, Midday, Snow Fairy and Elle Shadow). If she were mine the race I'd be looking at would be the E P Taylor at Woodbine in Canada. She'd have a favourite's chance there and could pick up the Group 1 win she would have had if Dancing Rain hadn't shipped in from Britain for the German Oaks.

I wouldn't dismiss FEBRUARY SUN (39) as a lucky winner that stole first run on a superior rival. Djumama came up to her a furlong out and had a chance to go by but February Sun rallied to hold her off despite drifting off the rail to join her and ceding ground in the process.

February Sun ran third on her racecourse debut but has won all her subsequent three starts. On her previous outing at Maisons-Laffitte ten weeks earlier she raced prominently as she did here and quickened smartly soon after entering the straight to kick clear and win easing up. She's a well balanced, tractable filly that has a good deal of ability. She improved physically during the ten week break since Maisons-Laffitte according to trainer Jean-Claude Rouget and looks like a Group 1 winner waiting to happen to me.

Right now February Sun holds no Group race entries and Rouget didn't mention any targets to reporters.

The objective will clearly be to win a Group 1 race with February Sun. And the one I'd be looking at is the Hong Kong Vase. The nine pound age and sex allowance three year old fillies get in that race improves their chances. To date two of the three French-trained three year old fillies to contest it have scored (the other ran fourth). The alternative European targets for February Sun all incur the risk of soft ground and my feeling is she's going to prove best on faster surfaces like the one they invariably have in Hong Kong.

SHAMALGAN SMART WHEN FRESH

Champion German miler ALIANTHUS (40) looked a good thing to take his country's top mile race, the Group 2 Darley Oettingen-Rennen at Baden-Baden. But after setting a strong pace he got outpaced in the final furlong by Shamalgan.

Alianthus is a classically good looking racehorse that is best with a bit of cut in the ground, partly because he can get done for a turn of foot as he was here. So I think it's fair for his connections to advance this, along with his near seven week break as mitigating factors in this loss.

On his previous run Alianthus had run a smidge faster when beating Set The Trend a length and a half more than Dubawi Gold managed in the recent Celebration Mile at Goodwood.

The objective for Alianthus remains the Group 1 win that he needs to establish his value as a stallion. His connections could have opted for the easy option of the Premio Vittorio di Capua at San Siro in October. But instead they're aiming to show just how good he is by tackling Goldikova and co in the Prix de la Foret.

To date Alianthus hasn't had the chance to go seven furlongs. But he frequently goes really fast for the first seven furlongs of his mile races and then tires. So I'd be wary of dismissing his chances of scoring the third German win in Europe's top seven furlong race since 1996.

The winner SHAMALGAN (41) was the highest rated 2YO ever in the Czech Republic, and by a big margin. He showed how smart he is when third in the French 2000 Guineas last year but has also run below his best several times.

It seems pretty clear that Shamalgan now needs to be kept fresh to produce top form. He's won all three times he's run off a break of five weeks or more this season but lost all seven times he's returned to the races more quickly since his two year old days.

Shamalgan has a fast ground action, and this trainer confirmed after the race that he does need good or faster ground to produce his best.

If he were mine the race I'd be aiming Shamalgan for would be the Hong Kong Mile as it's invariably run on fast ground. His opportunities in Europe for the remainder of the year could easily be compromised by ground that's too soft for him. And, judged by his trainer's comments, he could well be brought back too quickly following this run.

DANEDREAM DOES IT AGAIN

I with I understood DANEDREAM (41) who scored her second successive win when taking the Grosser Preis von Baden last week. But, after studying the videos of her French, Italian and German runs I'm not much the wiser.

It's clear that Danedream is rather straight through the shoulder so I'd want to avoid betting her on any track with significant downhill gradients. It's also clear that she stays very well because she's improved markedly since stepped up to 11 and 12 furlongs. But beyond that I have to admit I'm rather puzzled. Her runs when third in the Derby Italiano and fifth in the Prix de Malleret, and even her win in the Oaks d'Italia were just not up to the level of her last two wins - both Group 1 successes against older males.

My best guess at this stage is that Danedream needs to stick closer to the pace than she did in her two losses. This is certainly how she won the Grosser Preis von Baden.

Early on that great old race mare NIGHT MAGIC (37) earned a richly deserved round of applause from the crowd on her final start as she kicked into the lead at a brisk pace passing the stands for the first time. But despite slowing things down from the front thereafter she didn't look to have that much chance because she's always hated mud and the rain was bucketing down on already softened ground.

Danedream sat in second behind Night Magic and briskly kicked past her and drove clear when asked up the homestraight.

Plans for Danedream seem to be rather fluid. Her trainer talked about supplementing her for the Arc or Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf prior to running in the QEII Commemorative Cup against Snow Fairy and Dancing Rain in Japan. She's also in another Japanese race apparently.

Personally I'd avoid the Arc as the track features a significant downhill section. The American race is a better option because German racing is rather similar to US racing on turf - with its tight tracks and sprint finishes.