GERMANY APRIL 07

 

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TURFSHUFFLE IS A SERIOUSLY GOOD MILER

TURFSHUFFLE (39) put up a tremendous performance to win a class 1 mile handicap at Dusseldorf by seven lengths in seriously fast time. To give you an idea of how fast he ran let me tell you that the second fastest contest on the ten race card was the German 1000 Guineas over the same distance and he ran more than four fifths of a second faster than the wide margin winner of that Classic.

No doubt Turfshuffle will be stepping up to Group company following this win. And he fully deserves to according to my speed ratings. This was a Group 2 class performance and makes Turfshuffle look a very interesting prospect for all of Germany's top mile races this year - and foreign ones as well.

 

MI EMMA DOES IT AGAIN

MI EMMA (35) hosed up by a big margin in the 1000 Guineas Trial a while ago, running fast enough to earn a write up from me here. She did it again in the big race itself, blowing away her rivals by nine lengths.

As I mentioned before Mi Emma is bred to go longer but for now it looks like she'll be sticking to a mile and may make the journey to Royal Ascot for the Coronation Stakes. She's going to have to run faster than this to win Group 1 races like that, but she's been winning so impressively and by such big margins that looks entirely possible.

Incidentally, the victory of Mi Emma continued a rather remarkable statistic that has now prevailed in 15 of the last 18 runnings of the German 1000 Guineas. The 15 winners were all unexposed sorts with proven stamina. They had never run in Group company before but had proven their stamina by placing over a mile. Only two or three runners match this profile each year, so it's worth watching out for next season.

 

 

 

MI EMMA TOUGH TO BEAT IN GERMAN 1000 GUINEAS

MI EMMA (37) bolted up by nine lengths in the big Trial for the German 1000 Guineas at Dusseldorf, running the fastest time of the day - faster even than the colts in the 2000 Guineas Trial. She'd won her only previous start a few weeks earlier and looks set to start at short odds in the big race itself in three weeks time. She's bred to get the longer distance of the Preis der Diana (German Oaks as well) and it will be interesting to see how she progresses.

 

LAURO IS STILL SOME HORSE

Regular readers may recall that I spent a good deal of last season whittering on about the merits of the German horse LAURO (40). So I have to confess that I was stunned when he only managed seventh place in the German Derby and finished eighth on his only subsequent start in Italy. Later I discovered that he was struck into in the German Derby and bled when running so poorly in Italy. This being so I was once more full of confidence about Lauro's prospects of bouncing back to form on his seasonal debut in a good Group 3 race at Cologne.

Lauro ran a big race, but, amazingly got beaten again. However he was clearly most unlucky as he was first bumped by the third and then squeezed out between him and the winner EGERTON (41) before rallying strongly to finish second. If he'd won by a length or so as seems likely, Lauro would have earned a proper Group 1 rating and rank among the best middle distance horses in Europe on my ratings. I think that's a correct estimate of his ability. After all, don't forget, Lauro is still the only horse ever to have beaten Rail Link.

Lauro looks a serious prospect for all the top middle distance races in Europe this season. But I heard that his owners are instead considering sending him to America instead where he could run on Lasix. That might well be a smart plan as Lauro has previously shown he can win off the kind of slow pace that's the norm in US turf races (as he did when beating Rail Link). In addition, under the new 'win and you're in' rule, if he won a big turf race in the States he would qualify for the Breeders' Cup Turf without his owners having to pay a huge supplementary fee.

The winner Egerton has steadily improved with age according to my speed ratings and again slightly improved on his best ever effort here. He's now placed in six Group 1 races, including running a close second to both Warrsan and Youmzain. I suspect this wonderfully consistent old horse will finally be winning at the top level sometime this term.

BUSSONI (39) the horse that caused Lauro so much trouble by hanging, kept on to finish a good third. He ran away with three successive races last season, culminating in a five length Group 3 success. He's clearly an improved performer but probably needs the cut in the ground he had here to produce his best. When he gets it he'll be tough to beat in any race below Group 1 class.