SADDEX ONE OF THE MAIN CONTENDERS FOR THE ARC

The most obvious difference between German horses and those bred elsewhere is that they stay better. Another difference is that they improve more with age.

Shortly after Manduro demonstrated this at Deauville in the Prix Jacques le Marois SADDEX (33) did so when taking the Group 1 Rheinland-Pokal at Cologne. Saddex was a smart three year old that has developed into a brilliant four year old.

For those of you interested in big race stats, I should note that Sadex was one of only two runners to match the profile of ten of the last eleven winners of the big race. All ten had these three things in common;

* They'd won a race or placed in a Group 1 outside of the country where they were trained - unless they were only three years of age.

* They'd reached the first three in a Group 1 regardless of their age.

* They'd been rested for at least five weeks before this race or their last one.

FIRST STREAM (32) was the only other runner in the race to match this profile and he chased Saddex home.

It's unfortunate that the fashion in Germany is to run their big Group races at a slow pace because Saddex is rapidly beginning to look like one of the top middle distance performers in Europe. It would have been interesting to see just how fast he'd have gone in a truly run contest. Projections from the ratings earned by his rivals suggest he would have earned a very decent Group 1 speed rating of 42, the same rating I would have given him last time if the Grand Prix de Chantilly had been run at a strong pace.

Saddex has now won all three of his starts this season. His trainer, Peter Rau, suggested after the race that he would now go straight for the Arc. Given the huge prize money on offer in the Grosser Preis von Baden you might think it amazing Rau would even consider sidestepping Germany's richest race. But it's clear Saddex is best fresh. He's won all five times he's run beyond a mile following a break of six weeks or more. Running in the Arc will ensure he has that sort of a rest. If he took in the Grosser Preis his next two starts would occur at intervals of only three and five weeks.

Saddex now looks to be one of the main contenders for the Arc. And it's only the fact that he hasn't run in Britain or Ireland which is keeping him at 33-1 with the bookies for that race. The French certainly know how good he is following his big win there, so I'd be surprised if he started at much more than a quarter of those odds in France on the big day. Betting him each-way now at 33-1 looks a very attractive proposition.

First Stream beat some smart older horses to take second place and confirmed that the German three year olds are an unusually strong group this year. He's improved with every one of his six starts and looks to be a horse with a future.

BELMUNDO AN INTERESTING HURDLES PROSPECT

If anyone is looking to buy a German colt that should do well in juvenile hurdles I would direct their attention towards BELMUNDO (36) who ran a close second to the useful older horse AKHEERA (37) in a class 2 handicap at Cologne.

Belmundo had won his two most recent starts and only just lost out in pattern class time here. He's by the smart sire Monsun out of a Listed winning dam that's produced two Group paced foals from four other runners to date.

Unlike the winner, who is only small, Belmundo has plenty of size and substance about him. He certainly looks to have the build for hurdling. Indeed one of his dam's foals has already run second over hurdles.

Belmundo is entered in next month's German St Leger. He may not be quite good enough for that race but he does look likely to win again soon.

Akheera has now finished first or second all eight times he's run beyond ten furlongs on turf. He's capable of earning black type on this run.

TURFSHUFFLE PUTS UP ANOTHER FAST PERFORMANCE

TURFSHUFFLE (38) earned a Group class speed rating from me for the second time this season when running away with a class 1 handicap at Cologne. I rather suspect that he appreciated the step up to an extended nine furlongs as his best previous form at shorter trips had been in strongly run races.

Turfshuffle will get a pretty big penalty for this four length win. So he'll surely be running in Listed and Group company from now on. He certainly deserves a shot at that class. I'd also like to see him tried over ten furlongs now that he's done so well over longer than a mile.