LORD OF ENGLAND COULD BE VERY SMART

The Group 1 Grosser Dallmayr-Preis went to a three year old for the fourth time in the last five years when LORD OF ENGLAND (-1) took this year's renewal. But it was a farce of a race in terms of the early pace. The final time was over nine seconds slower than the next race run over the course and distance, a class 2 handicap. It merited a minus speed rating from me which is incredible for a race of this calibre.

This is the second German Group 1 for older horses in a row that has been run at a ludicrously slow pace (the Deutschland-Preis won by Donaldson in June was also amazingly slow). But I think the winner may actually be very good. I say this because the runner-up Laverock has a terrific record in slow run races and small fields such as the one he encountered here.

Laverock beat the brilliant Manduro to land the Group 1 Prix D'Ispahan earlier in the season. He should have been able to run right up to that form in a five runner race off such a slow gallop. So I suspect Lord Of England is probably very useful indeed. He joins Aspectus, Lauro and Schiaparelli at the head of what looks like an exceptionally strong crop of German three year old colts if my ratings are anything to go by.

WALERIA JUST KEEPS ON WINNING

WALERIA (37) won for the fourth time in a row when taking a fillies Listed race at Krefeld. She beat a good yardstick in Damascena by a couple of lengths. Damascena had chased home Saddex last time and that one went on to run fourth in the German Derby on his next start.

Waleria has scored all her four wins by two lengths or more which suggests she still has a bit of improvement in her. Her pedigree suggests that the extended ten furlongs of this race should be about her limit. Quite how good she is one can't yet say. But she's entered in the Group 3 Furstenberg Rennen against colts over ten furlongs next month and that run should tell us a lot.

SCHIAPARELLI WELL UP TO STANDARD

The German Derby is invariably a very hot race. And it was well up to standard this year with SCHIAPARELLI (41) winning in a time that earned him one of the biggest speed ratings I've given a three year old all season.

Schiaparelli was unlucky to lose against the older horse Donaldson in the Group 1 Deutschland Preis last time when that one was allowed to set a ludicrously slow pace. He's won all his other four starts. He'll probably go for the Grosser Preis von Baden like most German Derby winners. But he won't be heading to the Arc according to his trainer who feels he'll make a much better four year old.

Runner-up DICKENS (40) came from far back in the big field to take second. He's probably going to have a tough time winning at Group 1 level. But he'd surely be a good thing if he took up his engagement in the German St Leger.

ASPECTUS (38) ran below his best to finish a close sixth. But I suspected this might happen as he met traffic problems and lost the two previous times he'd run in a big field. I'd bet on him bouncing back to the brilliant form he showed earlier when he runs in a race with eleven runners or less again. I rate him one of the fastest middle-distance horses in Europe and fully expect to see him win in Group 1 company this year.

The big disappointment of the race was LAURO (36) and I'm at a loss to explain his poor showing. It could be that like Aspectus he's best in smaller fields. More likely he 'bounced' following his big second in the Oppenheim Union Rennen which I rated the fastest three year old race in Europe this year. In any event he'd run so fast before and beaten such good horses (Including recent Group 1 winner Rail Link) that I'm happy to invoke my standard principle of forgiving any horse one bad run. I still suspect Lauro may be the best three year old in Europe and will happily bet him to turn this form around with the winner in the Grosser Preis von Baden.

THERE'S JUST NO STOPPING QUIJANO

QUIJANO (39) won yet again at the big Hamburg meeting, this time taking another Class 1 handicap in a time that would win most Group 3's and many Group 2's. He's now won all his five starts since losing his racecourse debut. This was the third time he's earned a pattern class speed rating from me, so I'd like to see him take up the Listed and Group 3 entries that have been made for him. He's a highly progressive horse who still looks well worth following.

Runner-up ARMOROSO (38) has a very good record on good or faster ground at 11-12 furlongs. He'd won three times out of six in such circumstances and placed in Listed company and a 50,000 Euro Auction race in two of his losses. He too is capable

MOLLY ART IS BETTER AT A MILE

MOLLY ART (38) won the Group 3 Alice Cup in decent time. She's now won five of her ten starts and has clearly improved since stepped up to a mile. On this run she'd be an interesting candidate for any big fillies race at a mile. I can also see her beating colts at this sort of level.

ELUSIVE DREAM SEEMS BEST IN SMALL FIELDS

ELUSIVE DREAM (38) added weight to my theory about him preferring a small field when beating last year's German Leger winner El Tango in a Listed race at Hamburg. He's now won six of the seven times he's gone 12 furlongs or more in races with 11 runners or less but has lost all eleven times he's run in bigger fields. For this reason I'll be opposing him in the Ebor which invariably features plenty of runners. But I'd bet on him winning more Listed and Group races like this in smaller fields.

EGERTON'S PROVES GROSSER PREIS RUN WAS NO FLUKE

EGERTON (40) showed massively improved form when running second as a maiden in Germany's biggest race, the Grosser Preis von Baden last year. At the time his run looked something of a fluke. But since then he's run a very close fourth in another Group 1, been an unlucky third in France and won his other two outings. The latest of these was last Sunday's Group 2 Idee Hansa Preis which Egerton won in decent time.

I don't know why Egerton improved so much after doing nothing but lose till he was a five year old. But clearly he's now one of Germany's best older horses. I'd put only Soldier Hollow and Arcadio ahead of him.

NORDTANZERIN (38) did very well for a three year old filly to finish third. This run marks her out as the fastest of her age and sex in Germany. But one should bear in mind that ALMERITA beat her into third in the German Oaks, where Nordtanzerin was allowed to set a moderate pace. So it seems likely that Almerita is the better filly, and that makes her look very good indeed.

LATERAL IS PROBABLY A MILER

LATERAL (39) bolted up in the Group 3 Hamburger Mile by four lengths, improving markedly on his two previous tries at longer distances. It looks likely that he is not as effective beyond a mile but looks a force to be reckoned with at what now seems his specialist distance. Lateral has now won all four times he's run a mile or less and rates as one of the best three year olds at this distance. The thing is there aren't many opportunities for Lateral over a mile in Germany, so I imagine that Peter Schiergen may again try him over longer. If he again fails at ten furlongs I'd bet on him being shipped elsewhere sometime soon for a Group race over a mile. When he is I'd be careful about dismissing his chances. He's a Group 1 winner already and might well be able to score again at the top level.

RUBY HILL SHOULD WIN IN PATTERN COMPANY

RUBY HILL (37) ran in handicap company for the first time when taking one of Germany's most valuable handicaps, the Konig & co Stakes at the big Hamburg meeting. She broke her maiden on yielding ground, but her form since suggests she's best on genuinely fast going such as that she raced on at Hamburg. The previous time she'd encountered what I rate good to firm or firmer going she won the valuable auction race, the Criterium der Muller at Munich.

The time was good here, and so was the form. The horse she beat three lengths into second, Academy Reward, had finished exactly the same margin behind one of Germany's best horses, Arcadio, in a Listed race in April.

Ruby Hill has already finished second in Listed company (in the Swiss Guineas) and will surely score in that class, maybe even Group 3, before the season is out.

INAMBARI CAN WIN AGAIN

INAMBARI (36) won a valuable class 2 handicap at the big Hamburg meeting in good time. This was the second win in a row scored by this lightly raced four year old who looks capable of winning again.

PERSICO SMART AT SEVEN FURLONGS

PERSICO (36) looks to be a seven furlong specialist. The four year old was winning for the third time in his last four runs at the trip when taking a good class 3 handicap at Hamburg. He's much better than this class and ought to win again when he's run over seven furlongs.

GREEN MILE IS UNDER-RATED

GREEN MILE (35) won a class 4 handicap at Frankfurt in very decent time for the grade. He's won by a big margin both times he's run eleven furlongs or more this term and looks likely to win again as he's much better than class 4.

LUCIDOR A SMART MILER

LUCIDOR (39) ran a good Group 2 class time for a three year old to run away with a conditions race over a mile at Bremen. He'd run okay in a couple of longer Group races on his previous two starts but the cut back to a mile probably improved him. After all he's by the miler Zafonic out of a dam who only ever won over a mile.

Lucidor is entered in the Group 3 Hamburger Mile on July 15th where he'd almost certainly face a very strong field. But this run was good enough to give him a big chance in that race.

SANTIAGO ATTILAN IS GOOD ON GOOD GROUND

SANTIAGO ATTILAN (36) posted a good time to win a seven furlong class 2 handicap at Bad Doberan. It looks clear from his form that he's best on good or faster ground. He's now won three of the five times he's run on a fast surface, with one of his losses being a second to a pattern winner. He's lost all five times he's run on yielding or softer ground. This run was good enough to earn him a shot at pattern company I'd say. Below that level he's going to be hard to beat on fast ground around this distance.

HAPPY ROYAL LOOKS SET TO WIN NEXT TIME

SLADE (36) ran a good time to score at Mulheim and she looks worth another shot at pattern company. The runner-up HAPPY ROYAL (36) looks even more interesting. He was gaining ground hand over fist in the final furlong and looked full of run at the finish. He's already won over a mile, so a step back up to that trip looks a logical move.

WILL SADDEX STAY THE DERBY TRIP

SADDEX (38) won the Listed swb Derby Trail at Bremen in a time good enough to warrant a trip to Hamburg for the Deutches Derby. But the big question is 'will he stay the extra one and a half furlongs?'

Tony Morris probably knows more about breeding than anyone on the planet, and he once said that Sadler's Wells needs assistance from the dam to get one of his progeny to stay beyond a mile and a quarter. And in this case that assistance doesn't loom to be forthcoming because the two wins scored by the dam of Saddex were over seven furlongs and a mile.

Nonetheless Saddex is a very decent three year old. His trainer is cionvicned he'd have won all four of his starts this season if he hadn't run green when losing a Group 3 byt half a length. If he does stay the Derby trip he's got to have serious place prospects at least. But I have to say that Aspectus and Lauro look to have much bigger chances according to my ratings.

ASPECTUS AND LAURO THE BEST THREE YEAR OLDS IN EUROPE

Once or twice a season speed ratings will tell you something that is truly amazing, something you'll never learn from anything else. This happened in the Oppenheim Union-Rennen at Cologne, the big trial for the German Derby.

The race featured a clash between last season's Champion German two year old ASPECTUS (42) and this season's rising star LAURO (41), both of whom I've written about before.

I'd expected the time to be fast, but it turned out to be truly amazing. To give you an idea of how fast, let me tell you that the next fastest time of the day was a red hot class 1 handicap over the same distance. The winner of that race was QUIJANO (37). Quijano lost his debut but has been unbeaten in four starts since. I wrote him up here after he'd won his last race in Group 2 class time. He's a very smart older horse but his time was no less than 1.4 seconds slower than that recorded by Aspectus.

Aspectus won the race. But will he be able to beat Lauro again in the German Derby? I have my doubts on several grounds. Firstly, the extra furlong of the German Derby looks set to favour Lauro more than Aspectus. Secondly Aspectus got first run on Lauro in this race who was closing him down at the finish. Thirdly, and this is the biggie, Aspectus has won all four times he's run beyond sprint trips in single figure fields but has run into traffic problems and lost both times he's run in fields of ten or more.

The German Derby invariably features a full field of 20 runners. I want to see Aspectus prove that he can negotiate his way through such a big field safely before risking money on him. I reckon Lauro is a better proposition for the big race at this stage.

The last five runnings of the German Derby have been won by a horse that won or got beat less than four lengths in the Oppenheim Union-Rennen. Only Aspectus and Lauro have that distinction this year, and I'd bet on them continuing the trend at Hamburg on July 23rd. After that I'd be looking for the pair to emulate German stars such as Silvano, Lando and Shirocco in making their mark in big international races. Mark my words, Aspectus and Lauro are two seriously good horses. I rate them the fastest three year olds in Europe.