DON'T BET AGAINST ADLERFLUG IN MUD

ADLERFLUG (24) bounced back to his best to win a very slow run renewal of the Deutschland-Preis at Dusseldorf in mud. And he ended up scoring rather impressively.

Early on this rangy, long striding colt set an absolute crawl of a pace up front. And he actually looked uncomfortable for a long time when he was asked to pick up the gallop and sprint for home from half a mile out. But as they headed towards the final furlong his rivals started to tire in the soft ground while his own stamina came into play. As a result he scooted away to open up a big gap at the line despite running green.

It's hard to say how fast Adlerflug would have run in a true run race. But the fact that he had the top international performer QUIJANO (20) seven lengths back in second place suggests he'd have earned a huge speed rating from me if they'd gone a good gallop.

Adlerflug broke his maiden on fast ground but his record since then shows three wins from three tries on yielding or softer ground and four losses out of four runs on faster going. It looks pretty clear that he's the best mudlark we've seen since his compatriot Shirocco.

However it's worth bearing in mind that Shirocco did manage to win in top company on good ground and that Adlerflug only just went under to Quijano on a fast surface in last year's Grosser Preis von Baden.

I certainly wouldn't dream of betting against Adlerflug in mud and rather hope that it comes up soft for the Arc or some other big international race that he contests this season.