ARCADIO STILL LOOKING GOOD

I mentioned ARCADIO (33) before when he won on his seasonal debut. On Sunday he earned another write up from me by taking the Group 2 Grosser Mercedes Benz Preis over 11 furlongs at Baden-Baden. Again the time Arcadio recorded was not as fast as he can run. But he beat Day Flight (31) a couple of lengths into second and that one has earned speed ratings from 40-42 from me on several occasions.

It's now beginning to look clear that Arcadio is the best horse currently racing in Germany. He showed here that he can get eleven furlongs on yielding ground. This being so I'm inclined to believe he will get the mile and a half of the Grosser Preis von Baden. He tired late when running third over the trip in the German Derby last year. But that was on soft ground in a race where the huge field always guarantees a fierce early pace. Now that he's older I think Arcadio is going to get the distance perfectly well, and that makes him a threat in any of the big middle distance races run anywhere in Europe.

QUIJANO IS SOMETHING SPECIAL

I mentioned last week that MANHATTAN BOY (38) looked something of a good thing to take a ten furlong class 2 handicap at Baden-Baden on the 27th of May. He duly ran in the race and my speed ratings say he ran even faster than on his last outing. But he still got beat by QUIJANO (40) who is beginning to look something special.

Quijano lost on his racecourse debut last year but has won all his three subsequent starts. He's surely going to be winning Group races before long and looks a very promising four year old indeed.

SOAVE SO FAST

Lucky Strike (31) was favourite to win the Group 3 Benazet Rennen at Baden-Baden, having beaten SOAVE (40) on his seasonal debut at Cologne. But the fact is Lucky Strike has a fantastic record at Cologne. It's a tight, right-handed track and he's won seven of the last eight times he's run there. Soave, on the other hand, appears to detest Cologne. He's lost all six times he's run there. So it looked perfectly possible he could turn the form around on the straight six furlong course at Baden-Baden. He duly did, and ran a Group 2 time in the process, the second time he's done so this year.

In fact if you throw out all Soave's races on tight, right-handed tracks like Cologne (under10f in circumference) and also exclude races run on good or faster ground (he needs a bit of cut) you'll find that Soave has a terrific record. He's now won the last seven times he's met these, his favoured circumstances.

Soave is at his very best on a straight course, which is why he's shipped over to Deauville, Chantilly and Maisons-Laffitte in France so often to run on their straight courses. There is in fact only one straight six furlong course in Germany, and that is at Baden-Baden.

I'd love to see Soave shipped over to Britain for a six or seven furlong race on a straight course run on yielding or softer ground. He'd surely start at a big price, and he'd have a great chance of winning.

VILLEROY IS BETTER THAN A HANDICPPER

VILLEROY (38) won a class 2 handicap in pattern class time at the big Baden-Baden meeting. This was the fourth time he's won in five runs at trips shorter than ten furlongs on going rated 4.5 (good to yielding) or faster on the official German scale. He's already entered in Listed company as well as in a good class 1 handicap back at Baden Baden this coming Sunday. I wouldn't oppose him if he runs there and gets his ground. I'd worry about his chances on soft though. His pictures suggest that he has a daisy-cutting stride which invariably indicates a need for faster going. In any event, whatever happens next time I see this four year old as a potential Group winner. I suspect this nine furlongs will prove to be the outermost limits of his stamina as his dam has produced several other winners and none have scored over further.

Runner-up MENASTIGER (36) has already placed in Group company and is a useful horse to be eligible for class 2 contests. He looked a smart horse as a three year old but only made it to the races three times in 2005. Whatever was ailing him seems to have been fixed and he'll surely be able to win soon now that his official rating has dropped by 39 pounds from its high point in 2004 - thus making him eligible for handicaps like this one.

Third-placed MANHATTAN BOY (36) looks just as interesting as the winner. He lost on his racecourse debut but won his other three starts prior to this by three and a half, eight and nine lengths. He holds a pattern race entry as well and looks a great prospect. He's a significantly bigger horse than the medium-sized winner and clearly shows a bit of knee action. This indicates a preference for a slower surface than he raced on here. Indeed he's won all three times he's raced on a slow surface so far (I count the very deep sand surface he won on at Dortmund as slow). He's also won over almost a furlong further than the nine furlongs he raced over here. No doubt the British and Irish jumping stables will be after this one. In the meantime though Manhattan Boy will surely win a few more. I note with interest that he's entered up in another class 2 handicap at Baden-Baden this coming Saturday over a furlong longer. If, as seems likely, the ground softens up before then he'd be tough to beat.

ELCANOS LOOKS A GERMAN DERBY CONTENDER

ELCANOS (37) won his seasonal debut by no less than 15 lengths on his first try at a middle distance. Yet he was still able to get into a class 3 handicap at Munich last Sunday. He won it, beating older horses, in much the fastest time of the day.

Elcanos is by the champion German sire Acatenango out of a mare that's produced two pattern racers from her five previous foals to race. From his pictures he looks a bull of a horse with a very deep chest and massive withers and neck. I see him as a very interesting prospect. His connections clearly agree as they've already got him entered up in the German Derby, Grosser Preis von Baden and a bunch of other Group races.

Make no mistake, Elcanos is way better than a class 3 handicapper. He's surely going to win something big this season.

Runner-up Buen Viaje (36) did very well to get to within a length and a half of such a smart winner. It looks like this relatively lightly-raced six year old is improving with age. His dam's best previous foal was a Listed winner over fences, and I dare say we'll be seeing this fellow over jumps in Britain or Ireland at some point this year.

ALTE SAGE MAKES A VERY PROMISING DEBUT

Early season three year old maidens at major European tracks are invariably very strongly contested. This was certainly the case with the one run over a mile at Bremen last Friday. The winner BELIAR (36) ran a Listed class time and looks a good bet to win in better company. But the horse to take out of the race just has to be ALTE SAGE (36).

Alte Sage was having her racecourse debut and did terrifically well to run a useful experienced colt like Beliar to a head. She pulled five lengths clear of the third and looks likely to improve when stepped up to middle distances. Indeed she's already entered in both the German and Italian Oaks.

ASPECTUS WAS UNLUCKY

ASPECTUS (31) retains his status after an unlucky head second in the German 2000 Guineas to British raider Royal Power (31). My speed ratings, plus the fact that the runners finished in a heap, indicate clearly that the early pace was slow. So Aspectus faced a near impossible task to gain ground into an accelerating pace as the winner quickened clear two furlongs out. The fact that he was denied a clear run only added to his difficulties.

One thing this run suggested is that it's probably a good idea to step Aspectus up in trip and go for the Prix du Jockey Club as originally planned. Okay the French colts are a fierce bunch this year but Aspectus ran fast enough at two and on his three year old debut last time to deserve a shot. I see him running well at Longchamp and give him a good chance of at least placing.

ARAMINA A GERMAN OAKS CANDIDATE

ARAMINA (36) won an 11 furlong maiden race at Krefeld in a time that marks her out as a top candidate for the German Oaks at Dusseldorf next month. She'd lost by half a length to a decent rival on her only previous start and is out of a dam that's already produced two Listed winners. How good she may be is hard to tell at this stage. But she did win this by three lengths in pattern class time and has plenty of scope for improvement.

KAFKA KEEPS ON WINNING

They don't have many steeplechases in Germany. But that hasn't stopped KAFKA (36) from racking up four wins in such races. His recent success at Krefeld was his fourth win in five tries over the bigger jumps. He's still only six years of age and looks a prime candidate to be snapped up by one of the big British or Irish jumping yards.

PROUDINSKY IS A CLASSIC PROSPECT

PROUDINSKY (38) blew home by no less than 15 lengths in a maiden race on his racecourse debut at Dusseldorf, earning a solid Group class speed rating from me. Clearly, Mario Hofer has a Classic prospect on his hands here, one that he's already entered up in the two top German Derby Trials and the big race itself.

The big question with Proudinsky is stamina. This race was over 8.5 furlongs. His unraced dam has produced a maiden and one of Germany's top milers, Proudance, from two previous foals. His sire, Silvano, was a top ten furlong horse that may not quite have stayed twelve furlongs.

Then again, it was bottomless ground at Dusseldorf and Proudinsky was running away from his rivals at the finish. In addition, Hofer has entered Proudinsky exclusively in middle-distance Group races and has skipped the German Guineas. So he clearly believes the colt's future lies in races of ten furlongs and up. This being so, and seeing that his half brother Proudance's sire was a sprinter-miler, I'd bet that Proudinsky won't have any trouble staying ten furlongs. Whether he'll get the Derby distance only time will tell. Right now he ranks as the fastest member of the Classic generation in Germany to have raced this season.

LOLITA MAKES IT THREE OUT OF THREE

LOLITA (36) didn't exactly bust the clock when winning the German 1,000 Guineas. But her time was still decent and she scored by a couple of lengths. She's now unbeaten in three tries and wouldn't need to improve that much to be a threat in races like the Coronation Stakes.

I doubt that Lolita is going to get beyond a mile as her dam's sole previous foal was a sprinter.

It looks like the favourite, Violette (22), doesn't even get that far. She only ran sixth here despite having the best previous form. Violett'es dam didn't win beyond five furlongs and the four foals she's produced to date have yet to win beyond a sprint trip. Violette's sire, Observatory, doesn't seem to be a great influence for stamina either. So far his top 20 offspring (as judged by Raceform Handicap Ratings) have failed to score at a mile or more in 22 attempts.

Violette, along with Rajeem, were British raiders. But foreign runners don't do very well in this race.

Since 1992 there have been 27 foreign-trained starters in the German 1,000 Guineas and only one - Crimplene in 2000 - has won.

I think the reason for the failure of foreign raiders in the German Guineas is that foreign owners and trainers don't take the race as seriously as the Germans and generally send over somewhat inferior runners. Crimplene, the sole recent foreign winner, was also the only foreign runner with a previous Group 1 placing to her name.

Actually, if you look at the statistics for the German 1,000 Guineas you'll find there's an amazing similarity in most of them. 14 of the last 16 winners were unexposed German-trained fillies with proven stamina. That is, they'd never run in Group company before but had proven their stamina by placing over a mile. Only two of this year's 14 entrants matched that profile, and Lolita was one of them. Something worth bearing in mind next year.