GERMANY MAY 2008

 

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WIESENPFAD PROVES HE'S ONE OF EUROPE'S FASTEST HORSES

I thought the distance would be too short for WIESENPFAD (42) in the Badener Meile. But the combination of a searching early pace and yielding ground made the race a real test of stamina. As a result Wiesenpfad was able to come from far back, scoot through on the inside into the lead and sprint away in the last furlong to win full of run with his jockey patting his neck as they crossed the line.

I don't know why Wiesenpfad only ran fourth on his final start last year. But he would have won the other six times he's run beyond a mile since his losing racecourse debut but for being carried across the track when narrowly losing what I rated the fastest race run in Germany last year.

I'm disappointed to see that Wiesenpfad holds no big race entries outside of Germany. Though I guess there is time for that later on. Right now I'd expect him to have no trouble taking next month's Grosser Preis der Wirtschaft at Dortmund before he gets his first shot at Group 1 glory in the Grosser Dallmayr Preis at Munich in July.

The time that Wiesenpfad clocked was pretty darned amazing considering the going and the relatively slow times clocked in the other seven races on the card. He's clearly a very good horse indeed. I'd think long and hard about opposing him over his proper trip of ten furlongs and hope his connections don't make the mistake of thinking this run means he's effective over a mile.

Runner-up SANTIAGO (39) won the German 2000 Guineas back in 2005 and proved he's as good as ever when taking the Group 2 Premio Ribot last year. He finished well but was simply no match for what is probably the best horse in Germany.

Something was obviously wrong with Santiago in 2006 as he only managed three starts and finished out of the first three every time. He's reached the first three in all thirteen of his other starts and was losing for only the third time in seven tries at a mile outside of 2006. One of his other two losses at the trip was a narrow loss in a three way photo to Konig Turf and Apollo Star who both went on to win Group 2 races abroad.

With the winner set to go up to longer trips Santiago clearly has every chance of taking more big races over a mile.

 

PRECIOUS BOY TOUGH TO BEAT AT SHORTER TRIPS

PRECIOUS BOY (28) didn't seem to quite last the last half furlong when narrowly beaten by LIANG KAY (26) over eight and a half furlongs in his prep for the German 2000 Guineas. So it was no big surprise to see him turn the form around when taking the big race itself.

The early pace was pedestrian which suited Precious Boy fine because he's a mountain of muscle and would I'm sure still be very effective over the sprint distances he won over at two.

The sprint to the line began just after the three furlong pole. And, rather remarkably, given his clear need for much longer trips, Liang Kay managed to get into the lead briefly with a furlong and a half to go. But he couldn't contain the sprinting speed of Precious Boy who mowed him down on the outside. And in the dying strides the good looking KONIG CONCORDE (27) also got by him when finishing strongest of all with his late run.

It's really hard to tell just how fast a horse would have run if the early pace had been stronger. This is especially hard with Precious Boy because both his runs this season have been in slow run races. The available evidence though does point to a rather big number of around 39.

The race I'd like to see Precious Boy shoot for is the Prix Foret, the top European race over seven furlongs. My feeling is that a mile is the absolute limit of his stamina and he might well be best over the slightly shorter trip. I know he's entered up in the Grosser Dallmayr Preis over ten furlongs but I'd be amazed if he stayed that far from what I have seen.

Toylsome showed last year that a German horse can win the Foret, and I reckon Precious Boy is just as good.

Konig Concorde impressed me with his strong finish. He might well have got to the winner if the early pace had been stronger. It looks like he's going to prove just as good as his brother Konig Turf who recently won the Group 2 Prix Edmond Blanc.

Liang Kay ran a good race for a horse that's built and bred for middle-distances. The slow early pace and short distance were totally against him. His future entries are all over ten to twelve furlongs, so we'll soon have the chance to see him in a better light over a more appropriate trip.

 

DARK ISLANDER BEATEN BY SLOW PACE

DARK ISLANDER (26) looked a smart bet to win the Group 3 Benazet Rennen at Baden-Baden following his smart win at Lingfield. And he really should have scored in my opinion.

The problem for Dark Islander was the slow early pace which pretty much gifted the race to ABBADJINN (26) who got first run on him.

With a furlong to go Abbadjinn was sprinting for the line and Dark Islander was two lengths behind him. He produced a seriously good burst of speed to close the gap and looked set to blow by without any trouble. But just as he got upsides Abbadjinn that one's jockey asked his mount for the bit he'd saved and held off his challenger in the fifty yards left to the line.

I've no doubt that in a more strongly run race Dark Islander would have won. The good thing to come out of his loss is that it ensures he's still eligible for a winnable mark in the Wokingham. If he goes for that race rather than shooting for the Golden Jubilee I'd like his chances.

Although Abbadjinn did look to be a bit lucky it should be added that the smart French horse Tiza was upsides him when both started their runs but still ended up being third by just over half a length. Tiza routinely hits the same rating of 38, so it looks safe to assume that in a truly run race Abbadjinn would have earned a rating of 39.

Abbadjinn has won over a mile and seven furlongs. But it now looks clear he's best over six furlongs. He's unbeaten in two starts over the trip (his other win was a four length romp in a class 2 handicap). At this stage he's looking just about as good as the ageing German Champion sprinter LUCKY STRIKE (17) who he beat into sixth place on that one's seasonal debut.

Lucky Strike is now ten years of age but showed he's as good as ever last season by winning two more Group races. He's a remarkable old horse and was almost certainly not suited by the slow early pace here.

 

OVERDOSE TOO MUCH FOR HIS RIVALS

I'm a sucker for rags to riches stories. So I have to say I'm very interested in the extraordinary Hungarian three year old OVERDOSE (36) who simply ran away with a Listed sprint at Baden-Baden's big May meeting.

Overdose is clearly a keen going sort as he was sweating up and was in the lead immediately. But his nervous disposition didn't stop him from powering clear up the two furlong homestraight. Entering the straight he was not even two lengths ahead. But when his jockey shook him up a furlong and a half out he surged clear to score by nine lengths. He had so much in hand that his rider was able to punch the air in a victory salute as he passed the line.

Overdose has now won all seven of his starts by an amazing combined total of 76 lengths. He's never scored by less than six lengths. And from what I saw here it looks likely that he's never been extended.

The clock suggests this was only a Listed class performance. But I've no doubt Overdose could have run a good deal quicker if he'd been pressed. How much quicker is hard to say. The German handicapper rates him just three pounds behind the Guineas winner Precious Boy which points to a rating of around 38 on my scale. I wouldn't quibble with that. The truth is though we won't know how good Overdose is till he faces better competition. He's due to do that in the Group 3 Hamburg Trophy on July the fifth. Ten of the twenty eight entries for that race are good older sprinters from Britain so it should tell us a lot.

Overdose has won over seven furlongs. But I suspect he's best over six as he's a close-coupled muscular sort that clearly has masses of early pace. I'd love to see him win in Hamburg.

 

VALDINO AND SECUNDUS ARE USEFUL

VALDINO (36) and SECUNDUS (36) fought out the finish of a hot eleven furlong maiden at Cologne while readily pulling away from their pursuers in the final furlong. In doing so they clocked much the fastest time of the day.

Valdino is rather a leggy sort with a bit of growing to do from the photos I've seen but is tall and has a big stride on him. Secundus is stronger and more mature and is entered in the German Derby.

It's tough to tell just how good either of them will turn out to be at this stage. All I can say is that they ran a borderline Listed class time and look promising.

 

GLOBAL ROSE GETS INTERESTING FOR GERMAN 1000 GUINEAS

GLOBAL ROSE (36) clocked much the fastest time of the day when winning a seven furlong class three handicap by nearly four lengths at Dusseldorf. She'd won a maiden at the same course on her only previous start and will surely be returning to Dusseldorf as one of the more fancied runners for the German 1000 Guineas on June the first.

Global Rose has a very nice pedigree. She's by Big Shuffle out of a mare that has produced three black type earners from six previous foals. She's light framed enough to require a breast plate but is a pretty classy looking sort that looks like an out and out miler.

 

 

LANCETTO MORE OF A DERBY HORSE THAN KAMSIN

KAMSIN (28) won a very slow run Albert von Metzler Memorial at Frankfurt. But I strongly suspect that the runner-up LANCETTO (27) is a better Derby prospect.

Kamsin was allowed to amble along in front at a pedestrian gallop in the ten furlong Group 3 before beginning a sprint to the line a quarter of a mile from the finish. He quickly spurted to a three length lead by the three hundred metre mark but Lancetto was wearing him down all the way to the line. He ended up gaining about two lengths to go down by just a length and a quarter. That's quite something seeing that Kamsin was saved so much energy in front he was able to put in an 11.9 second final furlong - having run at the rate of about 13.5 seconds per furlong for the first seven furlongs.

Lancetto is a great big, long-striding sort who ran green here. As the camera gave a close up of him rounding the turn out of the homestraight you could see his ears going all over the place. He was far more focused on trying to figure out what was going on rather than racing. Sure enough as they rounded the apex of the bend he went wide.

Lancetto chased Kamsin all the way through the race in second place and edged forward to narrow the gap to three parts of a length as they exited the backstraight and began the home turn. But then, two thirds of the way around the home turn, Kamsin suddenly accelerated and caught Lancetto flat-footed, leaving him three lengths behind.

Lancetto is a bigger, longer striding sort than Kamsin and slower to respond to a change in pace as a result. But he gradually got rolling and eroded the gap. IN the final one hundred yards he was beginning to make a real impression but it was too late and he went down by a length and a quarter.

My strong feeling is that in a more strongly run race and especially over a longer distance Lancetto will prove the better horse. Even though he's still a maiden after three starts he looks a solid Derby prospect.

Kamsin too is clearly useful. He'd be unbeaten in three starts if the photo had gone the other way on his racecourse debut.

 

 

OTTOMAX CAPABLE OF WINNING A PATTERN RACE

OTTOMAX (37) won a valuable Auction race at Bremen in a time that suggests he's capable of winning a Listed or Group 3 contest. He came home by four lengths from a big field of useful horses.

Looking at his pedigree it does seem that the mile of the Bremen race will be the limit for Ottomax. But there are plenty of big races over that trip - including two more valuable auction races that Ottomax is entered in.

 

EARLSALSA SHOULD FOLLOW UP

EARLSALSA (36) hosed up by six lengths in a ten and a half furlong class 3 handicap at Bremen, earning a speed rating pretty close to Listed class from me.

He's a rangy scopey looking sort from the pictures I've seen with a big stride. He's very lightly raced and has taken his last two starts now.

Trainer Christian von der Recke says the horse broke a leg as a two year old and now has three pins holding it together. So I guess there won't be a long line of people wanting to buy him. But that doesn't stop Earlsalsa having a serious chance of scoring a hat trick next time.

 

LINDNER LOOKS PROMISING

LINDNER (37) won a three year old Conditions race by four lengths at Krefeld on his seasonal debut in Listed class time. He'd finished a distant third on his sole two year old start to a pattern class rival and basically could be anything at this point.

He's certainly a classy looking sort, muscular and very well proportioned. And I see that he's now entered in the Derby Trial at Baden-Baden's big May meeting. He's the one to beat in that race on the clock and should certainly appreciate the step up to ten furlongs judged on his physique and pedigree.