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WIESENPFAD PROVES HE'S ONE OF EUROPE'S FASTEST HORSES
I thought the distance would be too short for WIESENPFAD
(42) in the Badener Meile. But the combination of a searching early pace and yielding
ground made the race a real test of stamina. As a result Wiesenpfad was able to
come from far back, scoot through on the inside into the lead and sprint away in
the last furlong to win full of run with his jockey patting his neck as they
crossed the line.
I don't know why Wiesenpfad only ran fourth on his final
start last year. But he would have won the other six times he's run beyond a
mile since his losing racecourse debut but for being carried across the track
when narrowly losing what I rated the fastest race run in Germany last year.
I'm disappointed to see that Wiesenpfad holds no big race
entries outside of Germany. Though I guess there is time for that later on.
Right now I'd expect him to have no trouble taking next month's Grosser Preis
der Wirtschaft at Dortmund before he gets his first shot at Group 1 glory in the
Grosser Dallmayr Preis at Munich in July.
The time that Wiesenpfad clocked was pretty darned amazing
considering the going and the relatively slow times clocked in the other seven
races on the card. He's clearly a very good horse indeed. I'd think long and
hard about opposing him over his proper trip of ten furlongs and hope his
connections don't make the mistake of thinking this run means he's effective
over a mile.
Runner-up SANTIAGO (39) won the German 2000 Guineas back in
2005 and proved he's as good as ever when taking the Group 2 Premio Ribot last
year. He finished well but was simply no match for what is probably the best
horse in Germany.
Something was obviously wrong with Santiago in 2006 as he
only managed three starts and finished out of the first three every time. He's
reached the first three in all thirteen of his other starts and was losing for
only the third time in seven tries at a mile outside of 2006. One of his other
two losses at the trip was a narrow loss in a three way photo to Konig Turf and
Apollo Star who both went on to win Group 2 races abroad.
With the winner set to go up to longer trips Santiago
clearly has every chance of taking more big races over a mile.
PRECIOUS BOY TOUGH TO BEAT AT SHORTER TRIPS
PRECIOUS BOY (28) didn't seem to quite last the last half
furlong when narrowly beaten by LIANG KAY (26) over eight and a half furlongs in
his prep for the German 2000 Guineas. So it was no big surprise to see him turn
the form around when taking the big race itself.
The early pace was pedestrian which suited Precious Boy
fine because he's a mountain of muscle and would I'm sure still be very
effective over the sprint distances he won over at two.
The sprint to the line began just after the three furlong
pole. And, rather remarkably, given his clear need for much longer trips, Liang
Kay managed to get into the lead briefly with a furlong and a half to go. But he
couldn't contain the sprinting speed of Precious Boy who mowed him down on the
outside. And in the dying strides the good looking KONIG CONCORDE (27) also got
by him when finishing strongest of all with his late run.
It's really hard to tell just how fast a horse would have
run if the early pace had been stronger. This is especially hard with Precious
Boy because both his runs this season have been in slow run races. The available
evidence though does point to a rather big number of around 39.
The race I'd like to see Precious Boy shoot for is the Prix
Foret, the top European race over seven furlongs. My feeling is that a mile is
the absolute limit of his stamina and he might well be best over the slightly
shorter trip. I know he's entered up in the Grosser Dallmayr Preis over ten
furlongs but I'd be amazed if he stayed that far from what I have seen.
Toylsome showed last year that a German horse can win the
Foret, and I reckon Precious Boy is just as good.
Konig Concorde impressed me with his strong finish. He
might well have got to the winner if the early pace had been stronger. It looks
like he's going to prove just as good as his brother Konig Turf who recently won
the Group 2 Prix Edmond Blanc.
Liang Kay ran a good race for a horse that's built and bred
for middle-distances. The slow early pace and short distance were totally
against him. His future entries are all over ten to twelve furlongs, so we'll
soon have the chance to see him in a better light over a more appropriate trip.
DARK ISLANDER BEATEN BY SLOW PACE
DARK ISLANDER (26) looked a smart bet to win the Group 3
Benazet Rennen at Baden-Baden following his smart win at Lingfield. And he
really should have scored in my opinion.
The problem for Dark Islander was the slow early pace which
pretty much gifted the race to ABBADJINN (26) who got first run on him.
With a furlong to go Abbadjinn was sprinting for the line
and Dark Islander was two lengths behind him. He produced a seriously good burst
of speed to close the gap and looked set to blow by without any trouble. But
just as he got upsides Abbadjinn that one's jockey asked his mount for the bit
he'd saved and held off his challenger in the fifty yards left to the line.
I've no doubt that in a more strongly run race Dark
Islander would have won. The good thing to come out of his loss is that it
ensures he's still eligible for a winnable mark in the Wokingham. If he goes for
that race rather than shooting for the Golden Jubilee I'd like his chances.
Although Abbadjinn did look to be a bit lucky it should be
added that the smart French horse Tiza was upsides him when both started their
runs but still ended up being third by just over half a length. Tiza routinely
hits the same rating of 38, so it looks safe to assume that in a truly run race
Abbadjinn would have earned a rating of 39.
Abbadjinn has won over a mile and seven furlongs. But it
now looks clear he's best over six furlongs. He's unbeaten in two starts over
the trip (his other win was a four length romp in a class 2 handicap). At this
stage he's looking just about as good as the ageing German Champion sprinter
LUCKY STRIKE (17) who he beat into sixth place on that one's seasonal debut.
Lucky Strike is now ten years of age but showed he's as
good as ever last season by winning two more Group races. He's a remarkable old
horse and was almost certainly not suited by the slow early pace here.
OVERDOSE TOO MUCH FOR HIS RIVALS
I'm a sucker for rags to riches stories. So I have to say
I'm very interested in the extraordinary Hungarian three year old OVERDOSE (36)
who simply ran away with a Listed sprint at Baden-Baden's big May meeting.
Overdose is clearly a keen going sort as he was sweating up
and was in the lead immediately. But his nervous disposition didn't stop him
from powering clear up the two furlong homestraight. Entering the straight he
was not even two lengths ahead. But when his jockey shook him up a furlong and a
half out he surged clear to score by nine lengths. He had so much in hand that
his rider was able to punch the air in a victory salute as he passed the line.
Overdose has now won all seven of his starts by an amazing
combined total of 76 lengths. He's never scored by less than six lengths. And
from what I saw here it looks likely that he's never been extended.
The clock suggests this was only a Listed class
performance. But I've no doubt Overdose could have run a good deal quicker if
he'd been pressed. How much quicker is hard to say. The German handicapper rates
him just three pounds behind the Guineas winner Precious Boy which points to a
rating of around 38 on my scale. I wouldn't quibble with that. The truth is
though we won't know how good Overdose is till he faces better competition. He's
due to do that in the Group 3 Hamburg Trophy on July the fifth. Ten of the
twenty eight entries for that race are good older sprinters from Britain so it
should tell us a lot.
Overdose has won over seven furlongs. But I suspect he's
best over six as he's a close-coupled muscular sort that clearly has masses of
early pace. I'd love to see him win in Hamburg.
VALDINO AND SECUNDUS ARE USEFUL
VALDINO (36) and SECUNDUS (36) fought out the finish of a
hot eleven furlong maiden at Cologne while readily pulling away from their
pursuers in the final furlong. In doing so they clocked much the fastest time of
the day.
Valdino is rather a leggy sort with a bit of growing to do
from the photos I've seen but is tall and has a big stride on him. Secundus is
stronger and more mature and is entered in the German Derby.
It's tough to tell just how good either of them will turn
out to be at this stage. All I can say is that they ran a borderline Listed
class time and look promising.
GLOBAL ROSE GETS INTERESTING FOR GERMAN 1000 GUINEAS
GLOBAL ROSE (36) clocked much the fastest time of the day
when winning a seven furlong class three handicap by nearly four lengths at
Dusseldorf. She'd won a maiden at the same course on her only previous start and
will surely be returning to Dusseldorf as one of the more fancied runners for
the German 1000 Guineas on June the first.
Global Rose has a very nice pedigree. She's by Big Shuffle
out of a mare that has produced three black type earners from six previous
foals. She's light framed enough to require a breast plate but is a pretty
classy looking sort that looks like an out and out miler.
LANCETTO MORE OF A DERBY HORSE THAN KAMSIN
KAMSIN (28) won a very slow run Albert von Metzler Memorial
at Frankfurt. But I strongly suspect that the runner-up LANCETTO (27) is a
better Derby prospect.
Kamsin was allowed to amble along in front at a pedestrian
gallop in the ten furlong Group 3 before beginning a sprint to the line a
quarter of a mile from the finish. He quickly spurted to a three length lead by
the three hundred metre mark but Lancetto was wearing him down all the way to
the line. He ended up gaining about two lengths to go down by just a length and
a quarter. That's quite something seeing that Kamsin was saved so much energy in
front he was able to put in an 11.9 second final furlong - having run at the
rate of about 13.5 seconds per furlong for the first seven furlongs.
Lancetto is a great big, long-striding sort who ran green
here. As the camera gave a close up of him rounding the turn out of the
homestraight you could see his ears going all over the place. He was far more
focused on trying to figure out what was going on rather than racing. Sure
enough as they rounded the apex of the bend he went wide.
Lancetto chased Kamsin all the way through the race in
second place and edged forward to narrow the gap to three parts of a length as
they exited the backstraight and began the home turn. But then, two thirds of
the way around the home turn, Kamsin suddenly accelerated and caught Lancetto
flat-footed, leaving him three lengths behind.
Lancetto is a bigger, longer striding sort than Kamsin and
slower to respond to a change in pace as a result. But he gradually got rolling
and eroded the gap. IN the final one hundred yards he was beginning to make a
real impression but it was too late and he went down by a length and a quarter.
My strong feeling is that in a more strongly run race and
especially over a longer distance Lancetto will prove the better horse. Even
though he's still a maiden after three starts he looks a solid Derby prospect.
Kamsin too is clearly useful. He'd be unbeaten in three
starts if the photo had gone the other way on his racecourse debut.
OTTOMAX CAPABLE OF WINNING A PATTERN RACE
OTTOMAX (37) won a valuable Auction race at Bremen in a
time that suggests he's capable of winning a Listed or Group 3 contest. He came
home by four lengths from a big field of useful horses.
Looking at his pedigree it does seem that the mile of the
Bremen race will be the limit for Ottomax. But there are plenty of big races
over that trip - including two more valuable auction races that Ottomax is
entered in.
EARLSALSA SHOULD FOLLOW UP
EARLSALSA (36) hosed up by six lengths in a ten and a half
furlong class 3 handicap at Bremen, earning a speed rating pretty close to
Listed class from me.
He's a rangy scopey looking sort from the pictures I've
seen with a big stride. He's very lightly raced and has taken his last two
starts now.
Trainer Christian von der Recke says the horse broke a leg
as a two year old and now has three pins holding it together. So I guess there
won't be a long line of people wanting to buy him. But that doesn't stop
Earlsalsa having a serious chance of scoring a hat trick next time.
LINDNER LOOKS PROMISING
LINDNER (37) won a three year old Conditions race by four
lengths at Krefeld on his seasonal debut in Listed class time. He'd finished a
distant third on his sole two year old start to a pattern class rival and
basically could be anything at this point.
He's certainly a classy looking sort, muscular and very
well proportioned. And I see that he's now entered in the Derby Trial at
Baden-Baden's big May meeting. He's the one to beat in that race on the clock
and should certainly appreciate the step up to ten furlongs judged on his
physique and pedigree.
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