POSTED ON DECEMBER 14, 2009

VISION D'ETAT DESERVES MORE RECOGNITION

In a normal year VISION D'ETAT (42) would have had a far higher profile. After all, he won Group 1's in three separate countries and established himself as one of the best ten furlong runners in recent years. But such was the hype behind Sea The Stars he barely got a look in. Now that one has been retired I think people will start to recognise just how good Vision D’Etat actually is.

Vision D’Etat certainly looked something special when winning the Hong Kong Cup. He produced a tremendous burst of speed to mow down a high class field and actually score going away from local champ Collection and Presvis, two horses renowned for their finishing kick.

It now seems abundantly clear that trainer Eric Libaud is right to say Vision D'Etat is not at his best over twelve furlongs.

If one short head photo in a slow run Group 2 had gone the other way Vision D’Etat would have lost all four times he’s run twelve furlongs. He’s won eight of the nine times he’s run shorter distances.

Vision D’Etat’s sole loss at less than a mile and a half came on his seasonal debut this term. Libaud had warned beforehand that Vision D’Etat needed the run. And the horse raced rankly in the closing stages, just as horses often do when they’re unfit following a long lay-off (he’d been off for six months). Nonetheless he still ran third in a hot race run in fast time.

I confess I still find it hard to shake the view I formed about Vision D’Etat last season. Back then I agreed with his trainer that he was more of a staying sort that preferred a slow surface. Perhaps it was true back then. But Vision D’Etat has muscled up and grown considerably this season and now seems a good deal pacier as a result.

This term Vision D’Etat won the Group 1 Prix Ganay on lightning fast ground in a flat out sprint finish off a slow early pace. He then clocked a seriously fast time to win the Prince Of Wales’ Stakes at Royal Ascot, one of Europe’s top middle distance races, where he came from stone last to score.

There’s no question that Vision D’Etat was the best horse in France this year. And watching the videos of all his runs just before his Hong Kong success made me think that he could actually be a fair bit better than he’s so far shown. He’s a horse that only ever seems to do enough to win. His six pattern wins have all been by less than a length. And he certainly looked to have a little in hand crossing the line at Sha Tin.

As I've mentioned, barring that one loss when unfit, Vision D’Etat is unbeaten in eight starts at trips short of twelve furlongs. He always seems to find a way to win. He might just turn out to be a genuine champion next year.

Libaud wants to have a look at the new course at Meydan in Dubai before committing Vision D'Etat to the Dubai World Cup. This is understandable because it's a lot tighter than the old Nad Al Sheba. Nad Al Sheba was ten furlongs in circumference and had a homestraight of three furlongs. Meydan is just nine furlongs around and has a homestraight of only two furlongs.

It seems crazy to me that Sheikh Mohammed spent billions building the world's biggest grandstand and most luxurious racing venue then cheaped out on the track itself. Perhaps it was the only place left they could cut costs following the financial collapse in Dubai. But for whatever reason, the cramped new track at Meydan looks sure to worry a lot more European trainers than Eric Libaud.

I'm not sure whether Vision D'Etat would produce his best around a track as tight and with such a short homestraight as Meydan. I've already suggested that it would be even more of a problem for third placed PRESVIS (39) who produced slightly less than his normal late flurry here - almost certainly because he was still just in need of the run. He weighed five pounds more than when he won at Sha Tin earlier in the year and is clearly going to peak for the Dubai Carnival. If he can get rolling in time up Meydan's short homestraight he should improve on this effort in the Dubai World Cup.

Actually the first three may well meet again in the Dubai World Cup because local champ COLLECTION (41) is set for an international campaign following his close second place finish here. He produced his usual burst of speed but couldn't quite go with the winner. However he showed that he is up to international standard with his run here.

A study I carried out of Hong Kong races showed that they tend to be strongly run in the early stages like those in Britain. So it's interesting to note that Collection's sole loss in five previous starts at ten furlongs came in France, where the bunch finish suggests a slow early pace.

I liked the way EAGLE MOUNTAIN (39) moved well throughout and kept on nicely to take fifth. He'd been 32 pounds over his previous winning weight when running below his best on his comeback from a suspensory injury. He was still six pounds over here and is yet another that looks set to come into his own for the Dubai Carnival.

STARLISH (39) ran a big race when you take into account a right-handed course.

Starlish’s jockey says that the reason the horse dived left when throwing away the Prix Hocquart last year was that he saw the stable exit and made a bee line for it. However it is hard to escape the conclusion that Starlish does have a tendency to go left and prefers tracks which turn in that direction.

So far Starlish has won all three times he’s run on left-handed courses and scored just one win from fourteen tries on right-handed tracks.

That sole win going right handed came in an unlisted event at Longchamp. And Longchamp’s home turn is very easy indeed. The horses make a proper turn about five furlongs from the finish, but from half a mile out there is only a slight bend in the course till they reach the home straight.

Starlish has the ability to win something very decent when he goes back on a left-handed course.