HOW TO USE THE SPEED RATINGS

When you subscribe to my service you will be e-mailed the file for each race-meeting held on the day/s you've requested.

The first part of the file simply ranks the horses in order of the fastest speed ratings they have earned recently in the circumstances they race under today (i.e. only ratings earned on grass are used for grass races, AW ratings for AW races, steeplechase ratings for steeplechases and so on).

The second part of the file is a list of each horses runs from January 1st 2,000, showing basic details of each appearance plus the speed rating they earned from me each time.

When using the ratings the most important thing to bear in mind is that the bigger and more recent the speed rating a horse has earned is the more likely it will be to repeat it.  A Group 1 horse that has earned a rating of 45 or 46 within the last month is far more likely to reproduce it than a selling plater that earned 31 a year ago.

A good rule of thumb when referring to the list of top ratings is to favour top rated horses that are rated 36 or higher.  For every point that they are below 36 I want to see an extra one point advantage over the next highest rated to feel the same level of confidence in their chances.   In other words, I'll be just as confident of a top rated horse rated 37 with a two point edge as I will be of a top rated horse rated 32 with a seven point advantage.

The best kind of bet my speed ratings tends to pick out is a horse that has very recently shown dramatic improvement, earning a big speed figure in an ordinary contest that is much higher than any of today's opponents.  When there isn't a standout on the figures such as this it usually pays to be wary.  The race is probably too competitive to be predicted with any degree of certainty.  Luck in running and other factors such as the draw may be enough to change the result.

In certain special situations, my speed ratings offer a major potential betting edge all by themselves.  In AW races during the winter months, and in two year old races where the top rated horse is on a mark of 30 or more, it's not a bad idea to just bet the top speed figure horse blindly.  Normally however, you should see the speed ratings as simply a starting point.  They can tell you in what circumstances a horse has run fastest.  It's up to you to decide if today's circumstances are similar enough for the performance to be repeated, and if the horse is likely to be in the same sort of form.

I'll be analyzing the big race each weekend, using my speed ratings, to give you an idea of how I apply them.  When my analysis picks the winner I'm going to try and avoid trumpeting the fact too loudly on these pages.  My intention is that my speed figures enable you to become better at picking winners by yourself.