HOW TO USE THE SPEED RATINGS
When you subscribe to
my service you will be e-mailed the file for each race-meeting held on the day/s
The first part of the file simply ranks the horses in order of the fastest speed
ratings they have earned recently in the circumstances they race under today
(i.e. only ratings earned on grass are used for grass races, AW ratings for AW
races, steeplechase ratings for steeplechases and so on).
The second part of the file is a list of each horses runs from January 1st
2,000, showing basic details of each appearance plus the speed rating they
earned from me each time.
When using the ratings the most important thing to bear in mind is that the
bigger and more recent the speed rating a horse has earned is the more likely it
will be to repeat it. A Group 1 horse that has earned a rating of 45 or 46
within the last month is far more likely to reproduce it than a selling plater
that earned 31 a year ago.
A good rule of thumb when referring to the list of top ratings is to favour top
rated horses that are rated 36 or higher. For every point that they are
below 36 I want to see an extra one point advantage over the next highest rated
to feel the same level of confidence in their chances. In other
words, I'll be just as confident of a top rated horse rated 37 with a two point
edge as I will be of a top rated horse rated 32 with a seven point advantage.
The best kind of bet my speed ratings tends to pick out is a horse that has very
recently shown dramatic improvement, earning a big speed figure in an ordinary
contest that is much higher than any of today's opponents. When there
isn't a standout on the figures such as this it usually pays to be wary.
The race is probably too competitive to be predicted with any degree of
certainty. Luck in running and other factors such as the draw may be
enough to change the result.
In certain special situations, my speed ratings offer a major potential betting
edge all by themselves. In AW races during the winter months, and in two
year old races where the top rated horse is on a mark of 30 or more, it's not a
bad idea to just bet the top speed figure horse blindly. Normally however,
you should see the speed ratings as simply a starting point. They can tell
you in what circumstances a horse has run fastest. It's up to you to
decide if today's circumstances are similar enough for the performance to be
repeated, and if the horse is likely to be in the same sort of form.
I'll be analyzing the big race each weekend, using my speed ratings, to give you
an idea of how I apply them. When my analysis picks the winner I'm going
to try and avoid trumpeting the fact too loudly on these pages. My
intention is that my speed figures enable you to become better at picking
winners by yourself.