IRELAND APRIL 06

 

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FINSCEAL BEO AN EXCEPTIONAL EARLY 2YO

This early in the season you rarely see a two year old filly run as fast as FINSCEAL BEO (36) did at Leopardstown on her debut. My speed ratings suggest she has serious talent and shouldn't be opposed in the Group 3 Swordelstown Stud Sprint Stakes at Naas which is apparently her next target.

The one concern I'd have about Finsceal Beo is the ground. Her pedigree suggests pretty strongly that she probably needs the fast surface she encountered at Leopardstown to produce her best.

Runner-up YARIA (35) can probably handle softer ground judged on his pedigree and did well to get so close after a slow start. He's a future Listed or Group winner according to my ratings.

PHOENIX ICE (34), SAINT ANDREW (34) and EMERALD HILL (34) finished well clear of the rest and are all likely to win soon if the clock is any guide.

 

MOON UNIT HAS IMPROVED

Mares in foal often improve and MOON UNIT (41) has done so according to my speed ratings. She took the Listed Woodlands Stakes at Naas in a time that suggests she's the fastest sprinter in Ireland.

Moon Unit seems to like the real stiff tracks at Naas and Nava and would have own all four times she's raced on them but for one narrow loss. Probably for similar reasons she appears to prefer a bit of cut in the ground too. Unless it's fast ground I'd be wary of opposing her in the couple of months remaining of her racing career.

DANDY MAN (39) ran a huge race for a three year old to chase Moon Unit home and beat another very smart three year old KINGSDALE OCEAN (37) into third. If his connections are right Dandy Man will improve for this run and for faster ground. That would make him an incredibly good prospect, and a serious contender for the very top sprints.

 

MUSTAMEET CAN WIN ANOTHER GROUP RACE

MUSTAMEET (39) ran a time that would win many Group 2 races when taking the Listed Heritage Stakes at Leopardstown from the smart HARD ROCK CITY (38). He's almost boringly consistent and will surely win another Group race this season.

Hard Rock City has actually run a fair bit faster in the past and remains a very interesting prospect. He lost narrowly here and in another Listed race last Autumn but for which he'd have won all six times he's run beyond six furlongs. I'd bet on him coming on for the run and winning in better company than this. I rate him one of the fastest horses in Ireland and would see him as a threat in any race over seven furlongs or a mile.

 

BALLYUSAX STAKES NOT UP TO NORMAL STANDARD

Rhythm'n Roots (36) won what my speed ratings say was a sub-standard renewal of the Ballysax Stakes. Maybe some of the horses that finished behind him, notably the O'Brien pair Altius and Mountain, will improve for the run. But I doubt that we saw any classic winners in this line up.

 

ARTIST'S TALE SHOULD WIN AGAIN

ARTIST'S TALE (36) ran a very decent time for a three year old in the Spring to win on his racecourse debut at Leopardstown. He's apparently going to go for a handicap next time and there are very few three year old handicappers that can run as fast as Artist's tale did here.

 

LAKIL PRINCESS IS SMART

LAKIL PRINCESS (38) ran fast enough to win a Graded race when running away with a novice chase at the Irish Grand National meeting by nine lengths. She'd won her only other start over fences by 20 lengths and is improving all the time according to her trainer Paul Nolan. The plan now apparently is to run her on the flat. Seeing that Lakil Princess was second to Irish Oaks fifth Marinnette on her sole flat start to date I'd say it's an interesting idea. She'd surely beat a typical field of maidens at least.

 

WILLS WILDE IS VERY WELL HANDICAPPED

WILLS WILDE (38) earned a Grade 3 class rating from me when winning a pretty hot handicap chase at Fairyhouse. He's clearly improving and looks a good proposition for the Daily Mirror Chase at Down Royal which is apparently his next target. His official handicap mark understates his ability by a big margin if my speed ratings are any guide.

Runner-up MR FLOWERS (36) must be the fastest 14 year old in training. He managed to win at the age of 13 last Spring and looks to have a great shot of scoring again soon.

 

 

 

NASTRELLI IS VERY SMART

NASTRELLI (37) romped a maiden in mud at Tipperary in seriously fast time. This half brother to champion sprinter Namid is clearly a very smart individual. My ratings say he's Group class, so I'd say his trainer's plan of stepping him up to Listed company next time is a good one. How good he is only time will tell. Right now all I can say is that he's one of the fastest three year olds we've seen out so far.

 

ORPAILLEUR IS A GOOD SPRINTER

ORPAILLEUR (37) ran a very good time to take a 60-90 seven furlong handicap at Leopardstown and is clearly better over shorter trips. His last win was also over seven furlongs. Trainer Joanna Morgan says she might even cut him back to six. Over such short trips I'd be wary of opposing him in the immediate future as sprinters as fast as him are pretty thin on the ground in Ireland.

Runner-up SHAYRAZAN (37) looks very well handicapped. He's lightly raced and has reached the first two all three times he's had cut in the ground. I'd bet on him winning a similar race soon, perhaps over a bit longer.

Old-timer GRISHAM (36) ran a big race to finish a close third. He always seems to run well on soft ground and should be able to take another race while conditions remain favorable.

 

GUINEAS TRIALS WERE SLOW

The 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas Trials at Leopardstown were slow affairs. In the case of Kamarinskaya (34) I suspect the time reflected the true merit of the contestants. But the slow time recorded by Yasoodd (31) may well have been due to the small field producing a relatively slow pace. In any event I rather doubt any classic winners will emerge from either contest.

 

JUSTIFIED BOUNCES BACK

JUSTIFIED (39) returned to form to win the Grade 1 Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse. I'm still not convinced he's the best thing since sliced bread. But it's hard to argue with the fact that he's run really fast on several occasions and has won six of the last seven times he's had cut in the ground.

 

DECADO NOT QUITE FAST ENOUGH FOR GUINEAS

DECADO (37) clocked a decent time to win the Listed Loughbrown Stakes at the Curragh. But he's going to have to improve a fair bit to have a realistic chance in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. Kingsdale Ocean ran quicker the other day and I'd prefer to be on that one if they meet in the Leopardstown 2,000 Guineas Trial.

The other concern with Decado is the ground. It was basically a swamp at the Curragh and decidedly squidgy when he broke his maiden. Most likely he will handle faster ground. His dam certainly seems to be an influence for quicker going. Overall though, I need to see him do more before I start jumping up and down.

 

COMMON WORLD STILL VERY SMART ON SOFT GROUND

COMMON WORLD (39) won a Group 3 in Germany last October by six lengths on soft ground. And he repeated the performance to win the Group 3 Gladness Stakes by the same margin at the Curragh while earning exactly the same speed rating from me.

Clearly when he gets soft ground Common World is still a very useful performer. I suspect he's at his best in the smaller fields that contest pattern races like this. Indeed his record at 8-9f on yielding or softer grounds in fields of 13 or less is excellent - five wins from his last seven tries.

 

WATSON LAKE VIRTUALLY UNBEATABLE IN MUD

WATSON LAKE (42) ran a humungously fast time to take the Grade 3 An Uaimh Chase at Navan. He beat the brilliant novice NICKNAME (39) into second and earned the biggest speed rating I've ever given him in the process.

Watson Lake is a very smart horse indeed on going that's softer than yielding. He's won six of the eight times he's run in chases on such ground and was a length second to War Of Attrition in one of his losses. His trainer, Noel Meade, is now toying with the idea of stepping him up to three miles at the Punchestown Festival, and I'm rather interested in that idea. Two and a half miles at Navan on heavy ground off a strong pace is a severe test of stamina - the most severe Watson lake has ever faced. And it brought about his best ever performance. Now that Watson lake has had that breathing operation it seems he's getting home a whole lot better than he did in the past. So, given soft ground, I'd be scared of betting anything against him at Punchestown, whether he goes for the Guiness Gold Cup or the Kerrygold Champion Chase. In fact, until I'm proven wrong I'm going to regard Watson Lake as unbeatable on soft or heavy ground.

Back at his right sort of distance, Nickname ran another big time to finish second. Looking at his French form, a step up to three miles would be a logical step for him too. I see him as an interesting candidate for races like the King George next term.

HI CLOY (38) ran a little bit below his best in third. And it's interesting to note that he has now lost all eight times he's run on really stiff tracks (Naas, Navan and Cheltenham). This being so, the idea of shooting for the Betfair Bowl at Aintree, a dead flat track, next time seems a smart one.

 

 

DON'T UNDER-ESTIMATE KINGSDALE OCEAN

It's not often that you see a three year old beat older horses in an Irish handicap in March. Before this season the last horse to achieve the feat was Margarula who went on to win the Irish Oaks. KINGSDALE OCEAN (38) equaled her feat when beating the useful mudlark Senor Benny (35) on bottomless ground at the Curragh. And he recorded a Group class time in the process.

Kingsdale Ocean didn't have a chance to run on his debut as the bit slipped through his mouth. Next time out though he ran half a length second to the 2000 Guineas candidate El Fuego. Next time out Kingsdale Ocean was cut back to five furlongs and earned a Group class speed rating to win a maiden at the Curragh. The next race on the card was a Premier Handicap for older horses, also over five furlongs, and, amazingly, it was a fifth of a second slower.

You rarely see a two year old capable of running faster than top handicappers. So clearly Kingsdale Ocean is a very fast young horse. He's earned Group class speed ratings from me on each of his last two starts.

Kingsdale Ocean's dam has only produced one other foal to race so far, Blu Russell, a full brother to Kingsdale Ocean who won over seven furlongs at two in Italy. This being so, and considering how well Kingsdale Ocean got home on the desperate ground here, it's not surprising his trainer, Mark Roper, talked about stepping him up to seven furlongs for the Leopardstown 2,000 Guineas Trial next time. Roper is actually convinced Kingsdale Ocean will get at least a mile apparently and has him entered in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. If he's right, and I'm betting that he is, then the horse has a big chance of taking the 2,000 Guineas Trial and is certainly good enough to be worth a shot at the Classic.