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FINSCEAL BEO AN EXCEPTIONAL EARLY 2YO
This early in the season you rarely see a two year old
filly run as fast as FINSCEAL BEO (36) did at Leopardstown on her debut. My
speed ratings suggest she has serious talent and shouldn't be opposed in the
Group 3 Swordelstown Stud Sprint Stakes at Naas which is apparently her next
target.
The one concern I'd have about Finsceal Beo is the ground.
Her pedigree suggests pretty strongly that she probably needs the fast surface
she encountered at Leopardstown to produce her best.
Runner-up YARIA (35) can probably handle softer ground
judged on his pedigree and did well to get so close after a slow start. He's a
future Listed or Group winner according to my ratings.
PHOENIX ICE (34), SAINT ANDREW (34) and EMERALD HILL (34)
finished well clear of the rest and are all likely to win soon if the clock is
any guide.
MOON UNIT HAS IMPROVED
Mares in foal often improve and MOON UNIT (41) has done so
according to my speed ratings. She took the Listed Woodlands Stakes at Naas in a
time that suggests she's the fastest sprinter in Ireland.
Moon Unit seems to like the real stiff tracks at Naas and
Nava and would have own all four times she's raced on them but for one narrow
loss. Probably for similar reasons she appears to prefer a bit of cut in the
ground too. Unless it's fast ground I'd be wary of opposing her in the couple of
months remaining of her racing career.
DANDY MAN (39) ran a huge race for a three year old to
chase Moon Unit home and beat another very smart three year old KINGSDALE OCEAN
(37) into third. If his connections are right Dandy Man will improve for this
run and for faster ground. That would make him an incredibly good prospect, and
a serious contender for the very top sprints.
MUSTAMEET CAN WIN ANOTHER GROUP RACE
MUSTAMEET (39) ran a time that would win many Group 2 races
when taking the Listed Heritage Stakes at Leopardstown from the smart HARD ROCK
CITY (38). He's almost boringly consistent and will surely win another Group
race this season.
Hard Rock City has actually run a fair bit faster in the
past and remains a very interesting prospect. He lost narrowly here and in
another Listed race last Autumn but for which he'd have won all six times he's
run beyond six furlongs. I'd bet on him coming on for the run and winning in
better company than this. I rate him one of the fastest horses in Ireland and
would see him as a threat in any race over seven furlongs or a mile.
BALLYUSAX STAKES NOT UP TO NORMAL STANDARD
Rhythm'n Roots (36) won what my speed ratings say was a
sub-standard renewal of the Ballysax Stakes. Maybe some of the horses that
finished behind him, notably the O'Brien pair Altius and Mountain, will improve
for the run. But I doubt that we saw any classic winners in this line up.
ARTIST'S TALE SHOULD WIN AGAIN
ARTIST'S TALE (36) ran a very decent time for a three year
old in the Spring to win on his racecourse debut at Leopardstown. He's
apparently going to go for a handicap next time and there are very few three
year old handicappers that can run as fast as Artist's tale did here.
LAKIL PRINCESS IS SMART
LAKIL PRINCESS (38) ran fast enough to win a Graded race
when running away with a novice chase at the Irish Grand National meeting by
nine lengths. She'd won her only other start over fences by 20 lengths and is
improving all the time according to her trainer Paul Nolan. The plan now
apparently is to run her on the flat. Seeing that Lakil Princess was second to
Irish Oaks fifth Marinnette on her sole flat start to date I'd say it's an
interesting idea. She'd surely beat a typical field of maidens at least.
WILLS WILDE IS VERY WELL HANDICAPPED
WILLS WILDE (38) earned a Grade 3 class rating from me when
winning a pretty hot handicap chase at Fairyhouse. He's clearly improving and
looks a good proposition for the Daily Mirror Chase at Down Royal which is
apparently his next target. His official handicap mark understates his ability
by a big margin if my speed ratings are any guide.
Runner-up MR FLOWERS (36) must be the fastest 14 year old
in training. He managed to win at the age of 13 last Spring and looks to have a
great shot of scoring again soon.
NASTRELLI IS VERY SMART
NASTRELLI (37) romped a maiden in mud at Tipperary in
seriously fast time. This half brother to champion sprinter Namid is clearly a
very smart individual. My ratings say he's Group class, so I'd say his trainer's
plan of stepping him up to Listed company next time is a good one. How good he
is only time will tell. Right now all I can say is that he's one of the fastest
three year olds we've seen out so far.
ORPAILLEUR IS A GOOD SPRINTER
ORPAILLEUR (37) ran a very good time to take a 60-90 seven
furlong handicap at Leopardstown and is clearly better over shorter trips. His
last win was also over seven furlongs. Trainer Joanna Morgan says she might even
cut him back to six. Over such short trips I'd be wary of opposing him in the
immediate future as sprinters as fast as him are pretty thin on the ground in
Ireland.
Runner-up SHAYRAZAN (37) looks very well handicapped. He's
lightly raced and has reached the first two all three times he's had cut in the
ground. I'd bet on him winning a similar race soon, perhaps over a bit longer.
Old-timer GRISHAM (36) ran a big race to finish a close
third. He always seems to run well on soft ground and should be able to take
another race while conditions remain favorable.
GUINEAS TRIALS WERE SLOW
The 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas Trials at Leopardstown were
slow affairs. In the case of Kamarinskaya (34) I suspect the time reflected the
true merit of the contestants. But the slow time recorded by Yasoodd (31) may
well have been due to the small field producing a relatively slow pace. In any
event I rather doubt any classic winners will emerge from either contest.
JUSTIFIED BOUNCES BACK
JUSTIFIED (39) returned to form to win the Grade 1 Powers
Gold Cup at Fairyhouse. I'm still not convinced he's the best thing since sliced
bread. But it's hard to argue with the fact that he's run really fast on several
occasions and has won six of the last seven times he's had cut in the ground.
DECADO NOT QUITE FAST ENOUGH FOR GUINEAS
DECADO (37) clocked a decent time to win the Listed
Loughbrown Stakes at the Curragh. But he's going to have to improve a fair bit
to have a realistic chance in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. Kingsdale Ocean ran
quicker the other day and I'd prefer to be on that one if they meet in the
Leopardstown 2,000 Guineas Trial.
The other concern with Decado is the ground. It was
basically a swamp at the Curragh and decidedly squidgy when he broke his maiden.
Most likely he will handle faster ground. His dam certainly seems to be an influence
for quicker going. Overall though, I need to see him do more before I start
jumping up and down.
COMMON WORLD STILL VERY SMART ON SOFT GROUND
COMMON WORLD (39) won a Group 3 in Germany last October by
six lengths on soft ground. And he repeated the performance to win the Group 3
Gladness Stakes by the same margin at the Curragh while earning exactly the same
speed rating from me.
Clearly when he gets soft ground Common World is still a
very useful performer. I suspect he's at his best in the smaller fields that
contest pattern races like this. Indeed his record at 8-9f on yielding or softer
grounds in fields of 13 or less is excellent - five wins from his last seven
tries.
WATSON LAKE VIRTUALLY UNBEATABLE IN MUD
WATSON LAKE (42) ran a humungously fast time to take the
Grade 3 An Uaimh Chase at Navan. He beat the brilliant novice NICKNAME (39) into
second and earned the biggest speed rating I've ever given him in the process.
Watson Lake is a very smart horse indeed on going that's
softer than yielding. He's won six of the eight times he's run in chases on such
ground and was a length second to War Of Attrition in one of his losses. His
trainer, Noel Meade, is now toying with the idea of stepping him up to three
miles at the Punchestown Festival, and I'm rather interested in that idea. Two
and a half miles at Navan on heavy ground off a strong pace is a severe test of
stamina - the most severe Watson lake has ever faced. And it brought about his
best ever performance. Now that Watson lake has had that breathing operation it
seems he's getting home a whole lot better than he did in the past. So, given
soft ground, I'd be scared of betting anything against him at Punchestown,
whether he goes for the Guiness Gold Cup or the Kerrygold Champion Chase. In
fact, until I'm proven wrong I'm going to regard Watson Lake as unbeatable on
soft or heavy ground.
Back at his right sort of distance, Nickname ran another
big time to finish second. Looking at his French form, a step up to three miles
would be a logical step for him too. I see him as an interesting candidate for
races like the King George next term.
HI CLOY (38) ran a little bit below his best in third. And
it's interesting to note that he has now lost all eight times he's run on really
stiff tracks (Naas, Navan and Cheltenham). This being so, the idea of shooting
for the Betfair Bowl at Aintree, a dead flat track, next time seems a smart one.
DON'T UNDER-ESTIMATE KINGSDALE OCEAN
It's not often that you see a three year old beat older
horses in an Irish handicap in March. Before this season the last horse to achieve
the feat was Margarula who went on to win the Irish Oaks. KINGSDALE OCEAN (38) equaled
her feat when beating the useful mudlark Senor Benny (35) on bottomless ground
at the Curragh. And he recorded a Group class time in the process.
Kingsdale Ocean didn't have a chance to run on his debut as
the bit slipped through his mouth. Next time out though he ran half a length
second to the 2000 Guineas candidate El Fuego. Next time out Kingsdale Ocean was
cut back to five furlongs and earned a Group class speed rating to win a maiden
at the Curragh. The next race on the card was a Premier Handicap for older
horses, also over five furlongs, and, amazingly, it was a fifth of a second
slower.
You rarely see a two year old capable of running faster
than top handicappers. So clearly Kingsdale Ocean is a very fast young horse.
He's earned Group class speed ratings from me on each of his last two starts.
Kingsdale Ocean's dam has only produced one other foal to
race so far, Blu Russell, a full brother to Kingsdale Ocean who won over seven
furlongs at two in Italy. This being so, and considering how well Kingsdale
Ocean got home on the desperate ground here, it's not surprising his trainer,
Mark Roper, talked about stepping him up to seven furlongs for the Leopardstown
2,000 Guineas Trial next time. Roper is actually convinced Kingsdale Ocean will
get at least a mile apparently and has him entered in the Irish 2,000 Guineas.
If he's right, and I'm betting that he is, then the horse has a big chance of
taking the 2,000 Guineas Trial and is certainly good enough to be worth a shot
at the Classic.
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