BIG ZEB DESERVES A LOT MORE RESPECT

Many racing pundits seem to be moving towards the view that BIG ZEB (43) is not as good in Britain as he is in Ireland. This is why he's still available at a price as big as 7-1 for the Champion Chase despite hosing up in the Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown in exceptionally fast time.

The arguement seems to be that Big Zeb just can't jump British fences effectively. As I see it this is baloney. British fences claim far fewer fallers than the ones in Ireland. They're clearly softer not harder.

For example 9.55% of steeplechase runners at Punchestown have fallen over the last fourteen years compared with 6.86% at Cheltenham and 5.65% at Sandown.

The only reason Big Zeb has jumped poorly at Cheltenham and Sandown is that he didn't go to either course fresh enough. The vast majority of top two mile chasers need pretty lengthy breaks before their runs in order to build up the glycogen supplies in their fast twitch muscles that they use to ping the fences at speed. That's my theory anyway, and I've seen plenty of evidence for it over the years.

Big Zeb certainly pinged the fences at Punchestown off an eight week break. They're big and stiff but he made them look like hurdles as he skimmed over the top of every jump at remarkable speed.

It is this ability to hurdle fences at tremendous speed that invariably sets the best two mile chasers apart from their rivals. It enables them to gain lengths in the air, as Big Zeb demonstrated several times at Punchestown. I concede that Master Minded doesn't do this. He often stands off at his jumps, but this is unusual.

Big Zeb is at least as good as Master Minded according to my speed ratings. He proved this when losing by only a head to Paul Nicholls charge at the Punchestown Festival, where a bad mistake at the last surely cost him victory.

I can't see why Master-Minded is still favourite for the Champion Chase. Thanks to that fractured rib, he will be trying to win without having had a run since November, something no winner of the race has achieved in at least the last twenty years (as far back as I can check). Master Minded will also be trying to become only the second horse ever to win three Champion Chases on the back of an interrupted preparation. Contrast this with Big Zeb who will be going there fresh and well following a highly impressive success.

The horses that Big Zeb beat in the Tied Cottage were no slouches either. Runner up GOLDEN SILVER (39) had won all four times he'd run two miles and a furlong or less outside of a very stiff track in the previous four years. And third placed MANSONY (39) had built up a fantastic record on heavy ground in short chases. Before this run Mansony had contested seven steeplechases on heavy or soft to heavy ground at trips shorter than two and a half miles. His form figures in those seven races read 1111113, with that sole loss being a promising effort last time.

I'm not quite sure where Golden Silver goes from here. Logically he should skip Cheltenham as his record says he's most unlikely to last home up the stiff uphill finish. By avoiding the Champion Chase at Cheltenham he'd be fresh for the Punchestown Festival.

Mansony on the other hand probably needs to be persevered with while the ground is in his favour. If he were mine I'd be looking at the Cashel Chase at Thurles later this month as it's right-handed, which he prefers, and the 2m 2f distance is probably his optimum.

THIS COULD BE THE YEAR FOR SNOWY MORNING AT AINTREE

The character of the Kinloch Brae Chase has been altered in recent years. When it was run in mid February it used to be a pretty weak contest. But by moving it back a couple of weeks the organisers have turned it into a proper trial for the Cheltenham Festival. As a result in each of the last nine runnings there have been at least two runners that had previously earned Racing Post ratings higher than 150 in one of their last three starts. In the previous five runnings there was only one year when a single horse had ever earned a Racing Post rating that big.

The heightened competitiveness of the Kinloch Brae Chase has ensured that it takes a smart horse to win it. Seven of the last eight winners previously scored in Grade 1 company. The exception had reached the first three in four Grade 1 events.

If you tighten up on the stats you can turn the stats into a pretty powerful system for picking the winner of the Kinloch Brae. All you have to do is bet the runners that had previously won a Grade 1 and had earned a Racing Post rating bigger than 150 in one of their last three starts.

There haven't been many such runners in the race. Over the last fourteen runnings (as far back as I can check) these are the Kinloch Brae runners which matched this profile:

2010 Newmill WON 11-2

One Cool Cookie fifth

2009 One Cool Cookie fourth

2008 Hi Cloy WON 6-1

One Cool Cookie second

2007 Forget The Past WON evens

2006 Newmill WON 5-1

Hi Cloy fourth

2005 Central House second

Native Upmanship fifth

2004 Native Upmanship WON 1-3

2003 Native Upmanship WON 1-4

2002 Native Upmanship WON 4-7

1997 Merry Gale WON 9-4

This year the stats got it right once more with Newmill.

There were a whole slew of front runners entered and their jockeys were clearly wary of taking each other on and going too fast. As a result the early pace was slow. They reached the fourth fence 4.1 seconds later than the runners did in the following mares novice chase over the same distance. From the fourth though Philip Redmond decided not to hang about any longer and kicked on with Florida Express to open up a big lead.

The jockey on NEWMILL (39), John Joseph Murphy, didn't want to be caught napping. So six out he sent his mount up to gain rapidly and head off the front runner. He kept going well from there, fairly pinging the last few fences to hold on by three lengths from the persistent Snowy Morning.

I'm basing my speed rating for the race on the time they took to get home from the fourth and this indicates that Newmill was only two or three lengths per mile off his very best.

I confess that I don't know quite why Newmill is staging a revival at twelve years of age after losing eighteen times in a row. But he's always peaked in the second half of the season, so I can see him winning again. Though I concede he's going to be hard to place.

The horse that really interests me is the runner up SNOWY MORNING (38). He's improved with every run this season and looks set to get to the Grand National in the best form of his life.

It's easy to knock Snowy Morning. You could say he's not quite up to pattern class because he's lost the last seventeen Listed and Graded races he's contested while winning ten of his last thirteen starts below that class. But this is unfair. For the last three seasons Snowy Morning's entire campaign has been geared around the Grand National and history shows you have to sacrifice other races to have a real shot of winning the Aintree marathon. None of the last 26 Grand National winners has carried more than 11-1 to victory. For a horse smart enough to win the big race to get in with a weight that low it needs to lose pretty much every chase it contests in the run up to the contest. And nowadays this means running over hurdles or inadequate distances to keep their official rating down.

If Snowy Morning can get into the Grand National on his current handicap mark or lower he should be able to carry 11-1 or less. Seeing that he lights up the board on the stats for the big race I reckon the 40-1 you can currently get about his chances is rather generous.

LUSKA LAD PROBABLY BEST IN SMALLER FIELDS FOR NOW

There was a lot to like about the performance of LUSKA LAD (38) at Punchestown last Sunday. He traveled well in second off a very strong early pace, quickened impressively to close the gap approaching the straight and won decisively to clock a fast time while still moving strong as they crossed the line.

The concern for me is that Luska Lad continues to be a free running sort that is sketchy at his jumps. He jumped several hurdles slightly sideways which got me wondering how well he would have cleared them if he'd been more crowded than he was in this five runner contest.

I note with interest that Luska Lad has now won five times out of six in fields of eight or less around the right handed tracks that he favours. His sole loss came at Down Royal where it looks like he failed to get home due to the uphill finish.

I know he won in a big field when taking a Bumper and a maiden hurdle. But at this stage my feeling is that Luska Lad needs around eight runners or less to reproduce his best form. And I'd be dubious about his chances of lasting beyond two miles or on a stiff track despite the fact he's by Flemensfirth.

My gut feel from watching Luska Lad is that he's a smart two mile chaser in the making. He has the build to do well over the bigger jumps and possesses serious pace. In addition now that he's running over hurdles in good company and going fast every time I'd bet on him producing his best when freshened up with a break of five weeks plus after his first couple of starts each term. His trainer seems to think the same way and plans on resting him till the Punchestown Festival.

Last time out, after he fell over hurdles at left-handed Naas, Luska Lad proceeded to jump the last two fences. I think that will prove a sign of things to come and bet he does well over two miles next term in novice chases. This season his trainer is surely right to say his best chance of further big race success lies at the Punchestown Festival.

SALUDOS (36) set a strong pace while jumping boldly and had everything but the winner in trouble from a long way out. Unfortunately he landed too steeply when asked for a big jump at the last and lost quite a bit of momentum. He would never have beaten the winner but would have finished a couple of lengths closer but for this.

I recognise that Saludos tired badly the only time he ran beyond two miles. However I have to say he has the build of a horse that wants two and a half miles plus. His lack of finishing speed and the way he keeps on strongly at the end of his races certainly points in this direction too, as does his pedigree.

Saludos jumps really well and has the physique to do well over fences. I see him doing well over the bigger jumps next term. Meanwhile, since he keeps on improving and running one big race after another, I'd be cautious about opposing him wherever he runs. My suspicion is that he's yet to show us just how good he is.