BIG ZEB MAY WELL BE FRESH ENOUGH FOR TIED COTTAGE

Over the years I've banged on repeatedly about my theory that BIG ZEB (38) needs to be fresh. And so far the theory has been validated. Big Zeb has won eight of the nine times he's run in a chase off a break of six weeks or more. His sole loss came in the Champion Chase when second to Sizing Europe who I still maintain stole the race from the front. Since his novice days Big Zeb has lost all five times he's run in a chase off a break shorter than six weeks.

In the circumstances you might think I'm daft to desert such a successful theory and suggest that Big Zeb can win the Tied Cottage Chase barely a month after his recent win in the Grade 1 Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase at Leopardstown. However I find it hard to believe the race can have taken much out of him due to the slow early pace.

Forpadydeplasterer took the field along in a time that was 12.7 seconds slower to the third last than they managed in the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase on very similar ground the previous day. They sprinted the remaining half mile to the finish from there a monstrous 5.8 seconds faster than the novices. But the sprint finish happened so late in the race and the early gallop was so slow that my sectional timing formula suggests the runners had plenty of energy left at the finish.

This being so my feeling is that Big Zeb can defy the obvious pattern in his form and win the Tied Cottage on the way to hopefully reclaiming his crown at Cheltenham in the Champion Chase.

NOBLE PRINCE (37) was swamped for finishing speed in a slow run race by the winner for the second time in a row.

It's tempting to conclude that Noble Prince is not going to be able to win a Grade 1 over two miles and needs to go longer. But I'm wary of buying into that idea until he's shown what he can do in a strongly run race over the minimum distance. Having said that my ratings suggest Noble Prince's performance in the Jewson at last year's Cheltenham Festival would have been good enough to win the Ryanair Chase. So I'm not going to object if he goes back up in distance.

BLACKSTARIMOUNTAIN TOUGH TO BEAT IN BIG FIELDS OUTSIDE CHELTENHAM

BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN (40) is rather a quirky horse. He's weighed anchor in front when seeing too much daylight in small fields several times. And he just doesn't seem to get home up the hill at Cheltenham. But he's won five of the last six times he's run in fields of nine or more outside Cheltenham and finished a close second to Grade 1 winner Voler La Vedette in his only loss.

The Grade 1 racing Post Novices Chase over Christmas at Leopardstown set up rather nicely for Blackstairmountain as the field was big enough and went a strong enough pace to ensure he could be covered up to take the lead late on the run in.

Blackstairmountain has now won in Grade 1 company over both hurdles and fences but clearly presents something of a challenge to both his jockey and trainer. However right now there is the option of going for handicaps against experienced runners to ensure he encounters a big enough field. So I'll be interested to see if his connections go that route.

Runner up NOTUS DE LA TOUR (39) suffered from having Bog Warrior run alongside him early going too fast and too free. This caused him to run a couple of seconds faster than he should have over the first three fences before getting eased back by his rider, Robbie Power, who wisely allowed Bog Warrior to charge off on his own before falling at the next fence.

Thereafter Power allowed Baily Green to give him a lead, clearly trying to save something for a big effort which he duly asked his mount for from two out.

Notus De La tour kicked on but couldn't hold the winner's late surge.

My impression from this run and his last is that Notus de La Tour is best over two miles rather than two and a half and is somewhat sensitive to the early pace. If it's as strong as it normally is in the Arkle I'd be doubtful of him lasting home. However in smaller fields around less testing tracks I can see him winning one of the better two mile novice chases.

FOILDUBH (38) rallied on the run in despite clearly tiring from the second last. He keeps on running better and better with each start and I'm not sure we've seen the best of him yet.

LUCKY WILLIAM (37) lost a good deal of ground and momentum with a rather bad mistake two out. But for this he would probably have run third. He's certainly good enough to win a Grade 2 and might just take a Grade 1 novice chase before the season is out. He seems best fresh like a lot of good two mile chasers, so I'd like to see him given breaks of at least five weeks between his runs for the rest of the season.

BE WARY OF LEXUS FORM

The clocks suggests it will be wise to be wary of the form of the Lexus Chase. The winner SYNCHRONISED (37) had every chance to clock a good time but failed to do so. He got from the first jump to third last off a solid gallop 1.8 seconds slower than Last Instalment managed in the big novice chase but only managed to clock the same time from there to the finish despite being ridden out.

I think this was just one of those races where none of the principals ran up to their best. Synchronised would have preferred softer ground. The runner up Rubi Light (34) also needs it softer and many not have stayed. And the third Quito De La Roque is more of a Grand National sort than a Gold Cup candidate.

LAST INSTALMENT IS SMART

LAST INSTALMENT (40) put in an exhibition round of jumping and picked up really strongly to run away with the Grade 1 Fort Leney Chase in fast time. He looks every inch a future Gold Cup candidate on this showing.

The big plus in terms of his RSA Chase prospects is the way Last Instalment coped with the relatively fast ground - something that had been in doubt before.

So far Last Instalment has won all three of his chase starts under rules. I can readily see him giving Ireland a fourth successive win in that race.

SIR DES CHAMPS STAYS UNBEATEN

SIR DES CHAMPS (40) stretched his unbeaten record over jumps to five with an easy win in a Grade 2 novice chase at Limerick.

There was some debate about whether KNOCKFIERNA (37) would have held on if she hadn't run out in the lead when strongly pressed by the winner with two to jump. But sectional times suggest that is most unlikely.

They got from the first to the third last fence in Sir Des Champs' race 0.3 of a second faster than they did in the later handicap chase over the same distance. But Sir Des Champs picked up tremendously from there to cover the remaining distance 5.8 seconds faster despite being eased on the run in. There's no way I can rate this worse than a good Grade 2 performance by the winner, and Knockfierna just isn't that good on all known form. That said, she is clearly useful in anything except really fields where she tends to hit traffic problems.

Sir Des Champs has been a clever jumper from the first time he ran over fixed brush hurdles in France. He has yet to make a significant jumping error. His logical target at Cheltenham is the Jewson where he should have every chance of following up his win at the same meeting last season. If I was making a book on that race I'd have him marked up as favourite, so I have to say the 16-1 you can get about him for the Jewson looks tremendous value.

MIKAEL D'HAGUENET MAINTAINS THE PROGRESS

MIKAEL D'HAGUENET (41) has run better with each successive start since his return to hurdles. And last week, on his fourth run back over hurdles he produced a borderline Grade 1 class performance to beat Western Leader nearly eight lengths in a conditions hurdle over two and a half miles at Punchestown.

Some idea of the merit of Mikael D'Haguenet's performance can be gleaned from the fact that he covered the last two miles 3.4 seconds faster than the well regard juvenile hurdler Shadow Catcher did in a half mile shorter race on the same card.

Mikael D'Haguenet has the build of a steeplechaser but lost all nine times he ran over fences or fixed brush hurdles. He lost his first two runs over standard hurdles when returning from chasing but has now won the other eight.

This run did rather torpedo my theory that Mikael D'Haguenet could prove best over two miles. I say this because Western Leader set a searching pace and Mikael D'Haguenet maintained it to clock a very good time for the two and a half miles.

I'm now inclined to think that Mikael D'Haguenet may actually stay three miles and that his flop over the distance on his return to hurdling was partly due to him getting used to the smaller jumps again and partly to the fast ground. He does show knee action and has run unplaced all three times he's run on good ground.

Runner up WESTERN LEADER (38) was returning off a big lay off but still showed something close to his old form here. His only loss in four previous tries beyond two miles came when he broke down but still ran second in a Grade 1 at Aintree on his last start back in April 2010.

It will be interesting to see Western Leader's official handicap mark is after this run. It could well be low enough to give him a big change of winning a valuable handicap hurdle.

THOMAS EDISON IS USEFUL

THOMAS EDISON (38) earned the biggest speed rating I've given a Bumper horse all season when taking the invariably hot national hunt flat race for four year olds at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting.

Thomas Edison clocked a faster time than the previous best in this race set by Florida Pearl back in 1996. I doubt that he'll prove as good as that one. But the way he came through from last to kick clear of a good field tells me he's going to be competitive in pattern company when he switches back to hurdles.

NO MORE THAN AN EXERCISE GALLOP FOR ZAIDPOUR

The more I see of ZAIDPOUR (33) the more I like. Last Sunday he coasted along through a slow run renewal of the Grade 2 Tara Hurdle at Navan then simply ran away from his rivals when asked to pick up from just before the last. He covered the furlong from the final jump to the finish 1.2 seconds (about six lengths) faster than Boston Bob did in the following Grade 1 novice event over the same distance. And Boston Bob was finishing pretty darned strong - admittedly off a much slower early gallop.

This run was no more than an exercise gallop for Zaidpour. So I'd like to see him take up his entry in the Grade 1 Istabraq Festival Hurdle over Christmas. I think the cut back to two miles will suit him admirably there seeing the pace he showed at Navan and also when destroying his rivals in the Grade 1 Royal Bond over two miles a year ago.

I still say the 25-1 the bookies are offering about Zaidpour for the Champion Hurdle is way too big.

BOSTON BOB AN OBVIOUS CHELTENHAM CONTENDER

BOSTON BOB (39) came off a strong pace to win the Grade 1 Navan Novice Hurdle in a time good enough to give him a real shot in the Neptune or Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham.

Always moving strongly, this good bodied chasing sort took the lead between the last two and kept on strongly from there.

Boston Bob is built for the bigger jumps but is a well proportioned athletic sort that clearly has a fair bit of pace too. If he hadn't run green when losing in a three way photo on his debut under rules he'd be unbeaten in five starts - one of which was a defeat of the top class Days Hotel in a point to point.

Runner up MOUNT BENBULEN (37) is a tall, deep chested chasing sort that's built for three miles plus. His jockey understandably decided to make it a test of stamina by setting a strong pace. But unfortunately this gave Mount Benbulen the option of correcting himself at the jumps by going out to the right - something he did at most of the obstacles. This cost him arguably as much ground as he lost by.

This was the first time Mount Benbulen had been allowed to bowl along in front. So I guess he's going to need to be dropped in again for his next few starts and taught to put in a short one or go long rather then ceding ground by ducking right in order to take off the correct distance from the jumps as he was doing here.

Mount Benbulen is rather top heavy, so I'm not sure whether he can produce his best on good or faster ground. However he is clearly very useful as he'd won the four most recent times he'd completed the course before this, including in a Grade 2.

Next season Mount Benbulen is surely going to be a smart three mile novice chaser. This season I can readily see him winning again in pattern company, especially if he gets soft ground and is given a chance to go longer.

SINDJARA CAN WIN A FIFTH BLUE WIND STAKES FOR OXX

SINDJARA (34) put up a borderline Listed class performance to take a good Dundalk maiden over a mile when I factor in her sub 23 second sprint over the last quarter mile.

In the race Sindjara was always moving along comfortably in third and readily kicked on with a furlong to go to score comfortably. It looked like she could have pulled out a length or two more if she'd had to.

Seeing that she's built and bred for middle distances, this was a smart run by Sindjara - one that marks her out as a potential Oaks trial winner early next season.

For some reason there is only one Oaks trial in Ireland. This is the Salasabil Stakes at Naas which only holds Listed status. Sindjara could go for this race. But, judged on the record of her trainer John Oxx, she's more likely to run against older fillies and mares in the Blue Wind Stakes, a race Oxx has won four times since it was first run in 2001.

As long as she gets the fast ground Oxx says she needs I see Sindjara as having a big chance of giving Oxx a fifth win in the Blue Wind Stakes in May.

Runner up TANNERY (32) is a big, strong, good-bodied, deep-chested filly that is built for a mile and a half plus (her half brother Pheidias is a three mile chaser). She was understandably swamped by the winner for finishing speed after moving up to look a real threat early in the straight. In the last furlong, with the winner having flown and the rest being well beaten, her jockey dropped his hands and allowed her to come home in her own time. I've little doubt Tannery will be winning a maiden next time out. And she should improve markedly over longer, though I wonder if she might need cut in the ground on turf given her size.

RUBI LIGHT IS SOMETHING SPECIAL

RUBI LIGHT (43) put up a tremendous performance to take the John Durkan Memorial last Sunday. The sectional times he clocked for every part of the race up to two from home were massively faster than those in the other two chases on the card. He disputed then set a ferociously strong pace and kept on better than anything to score.

From the first fence to the second last Rubi Light clocked a time 16.4 seconds faster than Crash managed in the novice chase and 16.1 seconds faster than Seabass in the handicap chase. He understandably tired after running so fast. His time from two out to the finish was 31.3 seconds, compared with 28.9 for Crash and 27.5 for Seabass.

The big question now is whether Rubi Light will stay the three miles of the Lexus Chase next time out. So far he's yet to run beyond 2m 5f.

You can point to the obvious fact that Rubi Light tired dramatically and say this suggests he has little chance of staying another half mile. But the thing is he won after forcing or setting a pace that was so strong it caused all his rivals bar Joncol to pretty much grind to a halt and finish far behind.

In addition the whole modus operandi of Rubi Light is that he's rather a lumbering, ungainly sort that does nothing quickly. He needs mud to slow things down, and mud makes a race more of a stamina test.

It's also worth noting that Rubi Light is by Network, the same rather obscure German sire that produced Rubi Ball, one of the top chasers in France over three miles plus.

Network has less Phalaris blood in his pedigree than any horse I've ever seen - Phalaris being the dominant influence for speed in modern pedigrees. So it's not surprising Rubi Ball has won the Prix La Haye Jousselin, sometimes referred to as the French King George, over 3m 3.5f and run second in the Grand Steeplechase de Paris (the French Gold Cup) over 3m 5f.

My thinking is that Rubi Light will stay the three miles in the Lexus. If I'm right and he gets his ground then he should win the race.

Later on I imagine Rubi Light will be steered towards the Gold Cup at Cheltenham. Logically he'd have a good chance in that race. The trouble is his big, safe jumping is better suited to the stiffer fences found in Ireland. In addition the going at Cheltenham may well be too fast for him, just like it was last year when he finished a rallying and close third in the Ryanair.

If it did come up genuinely yielding or softer at Cheltenham I'd be rather interested in Rubi Light's Gold Cup chances. But right now I'm a lot more interested in the 5-1 the bookies are offering about him for the Lexus than the 25-1 they're showing for the Gold Cup.

Rubi Light scoped badly and finished distressed according to the vet after finishing far behind at Limerick a year ago. If he hadn't fallen with the race won at Gowran Park two runs back he would have won six of the other seven times he's run over fences on yielding or softer ground, with his sole loss being a good second place to the top class Golden Silver over an inadequate 2m 1f.

Runner up JONCOL (41) had won all five times he's run 2m 4f to 2m 6f before this run. The winner got away from him and everything else three out. But he rallied in an attempt to mount a late challenge, falling short by five lengths.

Joncol is a great big horse that hits the ground too hard to be risked on fast ground. He remains one of the top two and a half mile chasers. He won a very slow run Hennessy Gold Cup over three miles but has lost the other four times he's gone three miles under rules. I still think he's better over shorter.

The searching gallop on heavy ground was too much for TRANQUIL SEA. He simply couldn't keep running and eventually had to be pulled up.

Tranquil Sea won the John Durkan Memorial last year when it featured a slow early pace and a sprint finish. But he's tired to finish unplaced and far back the five other times he's attempted two and a half miles plus in Grade 1 races outside of novice company. I reckon he needs to go back to two miles.

MONKSLAND ONE OF THE BETTER NOVICE HURDLERS

MONKSLAND (37) didn't look totally organised or focused as he came through to lead late and win a good Navan novice hurdle in pattern class time comfortably on his first try over timber. This is not the first time he's run this way. He ran out in a point to point, but for which he might well be unbeaten in three lifetime starts.

Clearly Monksland will stay further than the two miles of this race, though he looks to have plenty of pace and is athletic. I'm thinking he'll hold his own over two miles against the best novice hurdlers on what I saw here.

Equally clearly Monksland can run a good deal faster because he had obvious reserves of energy passing the line.

Trainer Noel Meade reckons good ground would help Monksland which makes him look a decent prospect for the Cheltenham Festival. Meanwhile if he takes up either of his Grade 1 entries in the next couple of weeks I'll be interested in his chances.

Runner up BOMBADERO (36) is clearly much better over hurdles than he was on the flat. He doesn't have the potential of the winner but should frank this form soon. The same is true of third placed TENNIS CAP (36).

BISHOPS WALK SHOULD WIN SOON

BISHOPS WALK (30) was sent off odds on to win a decent Navan Bumper after getting beat a neck by running green on his debut. Unfortunately he went off a little too fast for his own good and paid the penalty.

Bishops Walk actually reached the point where the fifth last would be jumped in a hurdle race 8.5 seconds sooner than they did in the fastest hurdle race on the card. He still looked like he would win turning in but eventually tired to finish a somewhat distant second to the clearly useful Oscars Business.

My suspicion is that Bishops Walk will prove a better horse than the winner when ridden with more restraint, and I rate the winner close to pattern class.

OSCARS BUSINESS (35) doesn't have the size or scope of the winner but she clocked a much faster time than you normally see in this type of race and could well win one of the better national hunt flat races.