BEEF OR SALMON - KING OF SMALL FIELDS

BEEF OR SALMON (43) ran yet another big speed figure to take the Heineken Gold Cup at the Punchestown Festival. He's clearly a very useful chaser, but I see a pattern developing in his form that suggests he's not going to win a Gold Cup. The pattern concerns the number of runners in a race.

In fields of seven or less, Beef Or Salmon has yet to taste defeat in six starts over fences. In fields of eight or more he's won just once in five tries - and that was in an eight runner race where one of the runners fell early on (so it was effectively seven runners).

It seems to me that Beef Or Salmon's well reported traffic problems in the Gold Cup are typical of the fate that seems to beset him when there's more than a handful of runners. I just don't think he's very good at fighting his way through traffic or jumping fences in a crowd. For this reason I predict he is going to continue to be regarded as an 'in and out' performer. The thing to remember is that he's 'in' when the field is small and 'out' when it isn't. Play him this way in future and he should be a great horse to follow - and to bet against - in the right (and wrong) curcumstances).

Runner up HARBOUR PILOT (42) is best fresh, so it must have been frustrating for his connections to see the ground turn firm after they'd deliberately skipped Aintree to bring him to Punchestown in perfect condition. Even on unfavorable ground he ran a big race. It's amazing that a horse which shows such consistently solid Grade 1 form hasn't won a race in more than two years.

GLORY IN EXCELSIS!

The expensively bred IN EXCELSIS (33) put up one of the fastest times we've seen from a juvenile so far when winning on his debut at Tipperary. He's looking like a decent prospect for the Coventry stakes. Given his pure dirt pedigree, he'll surely improve on faster ground.

Runner-up GLOBALIZED (31) is also pretty nifty and is around Listed class on this run. Two year olds invariably improve for their first start by a few points, so he could easily be up to winning in Group company.

HI CLOY CAN WIN AGAIN

HI CLOY (38) has run a whole string of big speed figures over fences. He scored for the third time in a row when taking the Grade 1 Powers Gold Cup from Kicking King. His trainer is concerned that Hi Cloy is a real two and a half mile specialist and that there are limited opportunities for such horses in Ireland once they go beyond their novice season. This being so, I suspect we'll be seeing a fair bit of Hi Cloy in Britain next season. Right now he rates just a bit behind the very best. But he keeps on winning and may well be capable of beating some of the better two and a half milers. It's a pity in a way he won a Grade 1 here as the handicapper will saddle him with huge weights in the big two and a half mile handicaps after this. He certainly ought to have a fair chance of following up at the Punchestown Festival as this run demonstrates he's held his form, something that's a big factor at this end of the season.

KICKING KING (38) earned his best speed rating so far by finishing half a length second to Hi Cloy, but his trainer felt he was over the top and will most likely miss the Punchestown Festival now. He's made comments about Kicking King being best fresh before, and this is probably something to note. It's very hard to discern patterns in the form of a smart horse when they're racing in novice company - because they can win even when they're not racing in favorable circumstances by simply outclassing the opposition. I will certainly be looking out for Kicking King to run to what I call the rest pattern from now on though. That is, he should go well on his first two starts each season but need a break of at least five weeks since his last completed start thereafter to run well again.

CHAMPION 7F HORSE - THE NAME'S BOND - MONSIUR BOND!

Seven furlongs is a real specialist distance, and horses that are most effective at it don't usually do well at longer or shorter. MONSIEUR BOND (44) may well be such a horse. With a bit of racing luck he'd now be unbeaten in five tries at seven furlongs. His only other two wins came the two times he raced over six furlongs on a very stiff track or soft ground.

It might be that Monsieur Bond can stay a mile or cut back to six furlongs. But why take the risk? He showed with his seven length romp in the Gladness stakes at the Curragh that nothing is likely to get by him at seven furlongs this season. His trainer feels he's improved since last season, and that's what my ratings say too. Monsieur Bond is a serious Group 1 runner - AT SEVEN FURLONGS.

I recognize the popular view is that there just aren't enough Group races to form a viable campaign for an older seven furlong runner. But this is just plain wrong. There are a dozen European seven furlong Group races all the way up to Group 1 level that Monsieur Bond could contest in the remainder of this year, with opportunities popping up at least once a month, as you can see from the list below;

Race Track Month Class

Prix du Palais Royal Longchamp May Group 3

Ballycorus stakes Curragh June Group 3

Prix de la Porte Maillot Longhcamp June Group 3

Criterion stakes Newmarket June Group 3

Minstrel stakes Curragh July Group 3

Lennox stakes Goodwood July Group 3

Hungerford stakes Newbury August Group 3

Park stakes Doncaster Sept Group 3

Supreme stakes Goodwood Sept Group 3

Prix de la Foret Longchamp Oct Group 1

Challenge stakes Newmarket Oct Group 2

Premio Chiusura San Siro Nov Group 3

I do hope Monsieur Bond is kept to seven furlongs. If he is he could well win a string of Group races, take a Group 1, be heralded as one of the best runners in Europe and be sold for millions as a stallion. If he's asked to go the furious pace six furlong Group races are run at or attempt a mile he might well draw a blank for the remainder of the year. Then he'd be worth chump change. The difference would be around three million pounds in my estimation. Isn't that a good enough reason to keep him at seven furlongs instead of dropping back to six as his trainer suggested after the Gladness stakes?

Turning to the younger generation, CLASH OF THE ASH (34) put up the joint best speed figure we've seen from a two year old so far when winning a hot little maiden at Cork. His trainer feels that he will need longer than five furlongs on faster ground and plans to run him in the 6 furlong Group 3 Railway stakes. It's going to take a smart horse to stop Clash Of The Ash there as he put up a solid pattern class time here despite being eased at the finish.

Runner up SHAMOAN (31) is just about capable of winning a Listed race on my speed figures, so I'm hoping she keeps to maiden company and can be bet at fair odds against some highly touted Coolmore debutante.

The national hunt horses haven't stopped clocking good times. BEWLEYS BERRY (31) demonstrated this when earning a good speed rating for a bumper at Gowran Park. Bewleys Berry had won his last three point to points by 8, 8 and 15 lengths and continued the big margin theme with another eight length romp on his debut under rules here. He apparently goes for the Champion Bumper at the Puhcnestown Festival next. It's hard to know if he's good enough for that as bumper races are invariably slow run affairs, but I'd respect his chances.

PIXIE DUST (38) ran a seriously decent speed figure to take the Champion Pro-Am Flat race at Limerick. She's clearly improving and is apparently to be sold to go jumping. Personally I'd be very interested to see her stick to the flat and try her luck in a decent staying handicap.

MEGEC BLISS (34) ran a time that would win most 1,000 Guineas Trials by my estimates when taking a hot looking maiden at Leopardstown. She goes for a Listed race next time out according to Dermot Weld, and I won't be opposing her. Runner up SUDDEN SILENCE (33) met trouble in running and may well be even better. She'd almost certainly romp home if kept to maiden company but it must be tempting for her connections to stick her straight into pattern company. Third and fourth placed finishers HAZARISTA (33) and LUCKY (33) are good prospects to at least break their maidens very soon. They were a long way clear of the rest of a big field.

Brian Boru (37) put up an acceptable time to win the Alleged stakes, but he's going to have to improve a fair bit on this and the fastest he's run previously to be a force in the big Group 1 races this season. Right now I'm inclined to think he will need longer than a mile and a half to produce his very best.

TIDOUR IS AMAZING

TIDOUR (47) earned the biggest speed figure I've awarded a horse over jumps all season when running away with the Red Rum Handicap Chase at Aintree. Forget Azertyuiop and Moscow Flyer. This is the horse they all have to beat in all the big two mile chases from now on. Tidour's trainer is convinced he would have won two races where he finished second if he hadn't been restrained (which they now know doesn't suit him). It now looks likely that he would have won the Arkle had he not tipped up when staying on two out on his next to last start. In other words, with a bit of racing luck he's still be unbeaten after six starts over fences.

Second and third placed Armaturk (42) and St Pirran (42) are well regarded horses that simply confirmed their ability here. Neither seems likely to offer much betting value in the immediate future. However the fifth horse home EI EI (42) looks awfully interesting. He's run in an awful lot of hurdle races over the past year, which I think explains why he's won just once in his last 18 tries. He showed here that he is better over fences. With his rating having slipped to 137 he looks to have a great chance of taking a decent handicap chase now.

SIMPLY GIFTED (42) finished just in front of Ei Ei despite not taking to the extra stiff fences which are a feature of the Mildmay course at Aintree. The statistics show that the Mildmay course has claimed the second highest percentage of fallers of UK chase tracks over the past decade. Only the National course shows a higher percentage of non-completions. If Simply Gifted is steered to a course with easier jumps next time he will have a big shot.

ACCIPITER (40) and GREY REPORT (40) earned seriously decent speed figures for novices when pulling clear of the field as they fought out the finish of the Grade 1 Sefton Novices' Hurdle. Both look very promising, especially Grey Report who is bred for chasing and has already won a point to point. Clearly he's one of the better prospects for the Sun Alliance Chase next season.

BEE AN BEE (39) put up a very good time to win a hot class C handicap chase over three miles at Newbury. He's remarkably low in the handicap for such a decent horse, so he looks set to win a big handicap within his next few starts. His trainer said he preferred the good ground here to the soft going he encountered when a distant fourth to Royal Emperor last time. But I'm still to be convinced he really does need it good. After all he's won on soft and it's no disgrace to be beaten by Royal Emperor (the joint top three mile chaser on my ratings).

STRONG RESOLVE (36) showed a lot of determination to see off a succession of challenges when winning a decent little novice chase at Kelso. He just keeps on improving and is now edging toward the level where he'd be kind of interesting in a decent handicap.

Turning to the flat, the horse that deserves star billing is BRIGHT MOLL (34) who put up a huge speed figure for an early season two year old when dotting up at Folkestone. Michael Bell told reporters that the took her to Folkestone to avoid encountering juveniles from the powerful Loder stable. He needn't have worried. According to my speed figures Bright Moll is pattern class and looks a very interesting candidate for something like the National stakes, Woodcote stakes or Hilary Needler Trophy. She may even turn out to be good enough to win the Queen Mary. I would not care to oppose her next time out.

Sublimity (37) put up a decent time winning the Doncaster Mile, but he was pushed right out to score and the speed figure I gave him is simply bog standard for Listed class. I'm not convinced he has the ability to succeed in a Group race as good as the Betfred Mile which is his next target, and where he will no doubt be one one the favorites.

TROUSERS (38) put up a time that would win many big handicaps when sluicing home in the mud at Newcastle. It might be that his fast time resulted from racing on a faster strip of turf. More likely he improved because he was encountering mud for the first time in his career.