HAZARIYA SHOULD WIN BLUE WIND STAKES

Thirteen years ago the Group 3 Athasi Stakes was opened up to older fillies. The stats suggest they needn't have bothered. Only one of the 31 older fillies and mares to contest the race has managed to score.

This year it looked like the stats might get overturned with Group 1 winner Airwave taking part. But she didn't quite get there. In a four-way photo, the John Oxx trained 3YO HAZARIYA (37) got up late to score.

Oxx is convinced that it was only the heavy ground that enabled Hazariya to win over such a short distance. He feels sure she will do better over longer distances and plans to run her in the Blue Wind Stakes next time over three furlongs further. Hazariya's half sister Hazarista won that race last year, and my speed ratings suggest Hazariya ought to follow suit.

Runner-up SKY HIGH FLYER (37) is fast enough to take a 1000 Guineas Trial. But is is the fourth placed ADAALA (36) who most interests me. She has now run three big races out of three tries on soft ground and looks likely to improve on this effort which was her seasonal debut.

SLOW PACE MAKES LEOPARDSTOWN CLASSIC TRIALS HARD TO FATHOM

I'm afraid I have nothing helpful to say about the recent Leopardstwon wins of VIRGINIA WATER (26), ALAYAN (16) and BOBS PRIDE (25). The clock suggests that the Classic trials they won were slow run affairs, so I wouldn't go reading too much into the form. My gut feel is that we'll be seeing better horses later on, but nor now I have to reserve judgment.

SCARTHY LAD CONFIRMS HE'S THE ONE OF THE TOP NOVICE CHASERS

I've noted before that SCARTHY LAD (41) can run remarkably fast when he's on song, and he did so again at Limerick last Sunday, blowing away the smart Lincam by an amazing twenty lengths.

It seems to me that Scarthy Lad is best when fresh. I believe that he runs to what I call the rest pattern. That is, he's good for his first two runs off a break of three months or more but then needs a rest of six weeks plus between his completed starts to run well again. Toss out his runs last season when he never seemed to be right, and Scarthy Lad's form shows six wins out of seven to the rest pattern and six poor runs out of six when he hasn't been fresh.

I think the reason Scarthy Lad is best fresh is that he has a recurring physical problem. In fact, his trainer said he required physiotherapy after his first run this season. In this regard I find it highly significant that he has jumped badly every time he's run when not fresh over fences but hasn't touched a twig when he has been fresh. In other words the physical problem affects his jumping.

Scarthy Lad tipped up quite early last time out, so it was seven weeks since he truly last had a race. That means he was fresh enough to run to his best this time.

Scarthy Lad started at a fair price at Limerick almost certainly because many assumed he wouldn't stay the three miles. stay this far. In fact most of his sire's chase winners have stayed three miles. And there is plenty of stamina on the dam's side as well. Scarthy Lad's dam didn't race but her five winning half brothers all scored over three miles plus.

I suspect that Scarthy Lad is still generally under-rated and that many people don't believe he's capable of winning some of the top Grade 1 chases. I look forward to Scarthy Lad proving them wrong next time he's fresh and runs at the top level - and I suspect I'll get a very nice price about him then too.

BEAU COLINA DOES IT AGAIN

BEAU COLINA (37) banged out yet another big speed rating when winning at Fairyhouse last Sunday. He continues to be ludicrously well handicapped and looks a great prospect for big handicap chases next season. His trainer says he won't risk him on good ground though as Beau Colina is so big and heavy. This may well mean that he'll be skipping Punchestown.

Runner up CHRISTMAS CRACKLE (37) did well to get to within half a length of such a smart runner in such a low grade race. Like the winner, he looks exceptionally well handicapped and capable of taking a big staying handicap chase at some point. If he runs at this sort of level next time I wouldn't care to oppose him.

MUSTAMEET AND INDESATCHEL NOT THAT FAST

Mustameet (37) and Indesatchel (36) received big write ups for their wins in the Gladness and Loughbrown Stakes at the Curragh last Sunday. But the clock suggests they were both sub-par winners of their contests.

Indesatchel in particular looks greatly over-rated. We normally see several three year old handicappers run at least as fast as he did, so I don't like his prospects of taking another pattern race any time soon.

WATERWAYS CLOSE TO PATTERN CLASS

WATERWAYS (29) ran pretty quick for an early season two year old when scoring at the Curragh. Trainer Patrick Prendergast said after he win that she was the sort to win nurseries in the Autumn. My speed ratings say she's actually a bit better than that and could easily prove good enough to be at least competitive in Listed or Group company.

GROUND BALL VERY SMART AT SHORTER TRIPS

GROUND BALL (39) ran right up to his best to hold off the late runs of Ulaan Baatar and Central House in the Dan Moore Chase at Fairyhouse.

I don't think Ground Ball really stays two and a half miles. His only win in umpteen starts at the distance was in a poorly contested, slow run novice contest. At shorter trips however he is quite some horse - provided he gets cut in the ground as he did at Fairyhouse.

When I split Ground Ball's runs at two and a quarter miles or less up into those on yielding or faster ground and those on good or faster a very strong pattern emerges. On going that was good or faster (according to the going allowances I produce for my speed ratings) he has lost eight times out of eight. On yielding or softer he has now won six times out of seven. The sole loss was by just half a length early in his career when he surrendered a big lead late, almost certainly through greenness.

Quite where Ground Ball goes from here I don't know. The Irish racing program doesn't cater well for chasers with his sort of distance limitation. Perhaps the Red Rum Chase at Aintree would be an interesting proposition. In any event, when he gets cut in the ground and a trip short of two miles, watch out for Ground Ball. As He showed here, he's one tough horse to beat in such circumstances.