YEATS AS GOOD AS EVER

YEATS (41) confirmed his status as one of the best status in recent years with a fine win at Navan on his seasonal debut. He's one of those horses that always seems to run a really fast time. And one thing I know about such horses is that they're invariably best fresh. Once they've had two starts in a season they tend to need at least six weeks between their runs. Yeats certainly seems to be inclined this way and I'll be happy to oppose him if his connections ever rush him back to the races too quickly in future. Otherwise though he's going to be one tough horse to beat in all the Cup races.

HUGE RUN BY BOBS PRIDE

Dermot Weld is not one of those trainers who hypes his horses. So when he says that BOBS PRIDE (40) is "rapidly improving and he's going to go right to the top over hurdles" you should sit up and take notice.

My speed ratings say that Weld is right. Bobs Pride is running faster all the time and ran quick enough to make him a viable Champion Hurdle candidate when winning a valuable handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival.

I don't know what went wrong with Bobs Pride in the Royal Bond Hurdle. Perhaps he disliked the heavy ground or, more likely, he had some sort of problem seeing that he was off for five months afterwards. In any event Bobs Pride has passed the post first in four of his other most recent five starts over timber - his only defeat being a close second to Grade 1 winner Hide The Evidence.

I rather suspect that despite his previous soft ground form on the flat Bobs Pride may well now be better on faster ground like that he raced on at Punchestown. Horses often change their preferences when they mature and grow bigger and stronger as Bobs Pride looks to have done.

It will be very interesting to see how Bobs Pride fares on the flat. Weld is going to have to place him carefully and run him infrequently if he is to make it to his target race, the Cambridgeshire, with a vaguely reasonable weight assignment. He's already has a very high official handicap mark and another win could see his weight soar.

Bobs Pride clearly goes best fresh, so I imagine he'll be given a light campaign on the flat. His major targets will surely be next Spring by which time I suspect he will have become a serious player for the Champion Hurdle. Before then his official hurdle rating is so low Weld is surely going to exploit it in another valuable handicap hurdle or two.

Runner-up BIEN BRONZE (38) also looks sure to go the handicap route for now as he ran here off a mark of only 116. He's only had a handful of runs over timber and, like the winner, keeps on improving. The last 4 ratings he's earned from me are 11, 31, 36 and now 38.

Trainer Arthur Moore said after Bien Bronze won last time that the horse would prefer fast ground. This run proved him right.

Clearly, whether he goes novice chasing or sticks to handicap hurdles, Bien Bronze is a horse to follow in his next few starts.

FARMER BROWN (38) ran a big race to chase the first two home. He too is relatively lightly races and improving. He might have won another valuable handicap hurdle if he hadn't tipped up last time and is surely going to win a big race before long.

NEPTUNES COLLONGES TOUGH TO BEAT OUTSIDE CHELTENHAM

Before he won the Punchestown Gold Cup a lot of people seemed to have the impression that NEPTUNES COLLONGES (41) was a mudlark. But race times show the going was good to firm when he won a valuable chase at Pau in France. Sure enough the horse went and won on a fast surface again at Punchestown.

Trainer Paul Nicholls said after the race that he felt Neptunes Collonges didn't like Cheltenham. The horse's form certainly bears this out as he's run below form all three times he's run at the track. He's won seven times out of eight over fences on other courses however. And his sole defeat was a very good second place finish in what I rated the fastest steeplechase run in the last five years.

Seeing that he doesn't like Cheltenham, the Grand National could be an alternative target for Neptunes Collonges next term. The trouble is that, like most French breds, he's rather narrow and light-framed to cope with the rough and tumble of that race - as evidenced by the fact that no horse bred in France has won Aintree's marathon since Lutteur III way back in 1909. In addition he'd get a huge weight, and nowadays it seems well nigh impossible to win the National with more than 11-1.

This win will hardly have been a shock to French racing fans as it's hard to convey just how big a reputation Neptune Collonges had when he was racing over fences in France. He won all five of his completed starts and blasted the smart Balko by no less than 15 lengths on his final outing over there. Read the write ups he got after his wins in Paris Turf and you get the impression that there were many who expected him to develop into one of the best chasers France has ever produced.

The speed ratings Neptune Collonges earned in France were equally amazing. He twice earned Grade 1 class ratings from me. He's continued to do that in Britain and Ireland. So I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him outperform his much vaunted stablemate Kauto Star next season.

Kingscliff (40) once again showed that he can run really well off a lay-off. But by the time he starts next season there will be a two year gap to his last win. I just can't bet on this giant of a horse staying sound enough to win anything big. His best shot would come in the Betfair Chase as that not only comes early in the season, it's also run on a dead flat track (horses with dodgy legs tend to dislike the extra concussion they experience when racing on the downhill sections of undulating courses).

I confess that I had written off third placed IN COMPLIANCE (38) as a likely non-stayer following the second successive failure of his brother One Cool Cookie to show his best over three miles the previous day. But it looks clear that his trainer is right to say it was lack of fitness rather than stamina which brought about his defeat. A non-stayer just doesn't run as fast as he did over this trip.

I don't know whether In Compliance will get the three and a quarter miles of the Gold Cup. Then again it could be a slow run race like last year which allowed what I still consider non-stayers to dominate. In any event In Compliance ran so fast when beating War Of Attrition on his next to last outing that I have to rate him a major threat for all the big three mile chases next term.

RACING DEMON (37) gave himself a problem with a bad blunder but rallied well to show he has no problems with this trip either. He too has run seriously fast over fences and looks a big player in the top three mile chases from now on. Obviously his best shot would be in the King George as it's run on a right-handed track which he obviously needs.

OFFSHORE ACCOUNT KEEPS ON IMPROVING

I touted OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (38) as a likely Punchestown Festival winner after his recent win at Limerick, suggesting that he did not need soft ground as was generally supposed. He proved me right when taking the Grade 1 Champion Novice Chase at the big meeting. In doing so he yet again bettered the biggest speed rating I’ve given him.

How good Offshore Account will end up being I cannot say. Right now he’s a good way off Gold Cup standard. But in the long run, seeing that he was originally purchased as a Cross Country horse, I rather suspect he is going to develop into a very serious Grand National candidate.

Aces Four (38) may or may not have beaten Offshore Account if he hadn’t fallen at the last. But one thing is for sure; like most horses with breathing problems he needs fast ground and gets into trouble on a really stiff track.

Even yielding going is enough to give Aces Four a problem according to my going allowances. And it’s clear that he just can’t get home up that stiff final climb at Cheltenham. Both things obviously put too much strain on his breathing. But on easier courses and on genuinely good or faster ground Aces Four is clearly useful.

The big concern I have about Aces Four for the future is that he may have real problems coping with the fast pace that’s invariably generated by the big fields which contest the valuable handicap chases he’s surely set to run in next term. In addition, the effects of breathing operations like the one Aces Four has had, wear off after a year or so in my experience. This being so and, seeing that his need for fast ground and an easy track makes him hard to place anyway, I can’t really recommend Aces Four as a horse to follow.

WHERE DOES GRANGECLARE LARK GO FROM HERE?

GRANGECLARE LARK (38) duly won the big Grade 3 hurdle for mares at the Punchestown Festival. And once more she ran about as fast as a mare can normally run to take the race. But where does she go from here? Now that she is no longer a novice there are very few decent races open to her which are restricted to her own sex. True, she could try chasing or maybe try her luck against males in open company over hurdles. But she's worth so much for stud purposes that her owners surely won't want to risk her over the bigger jumps or dent her value through a string of defeats against males. If they go with what's most profitable they'll surely just bundle her off to stud.

Maybe it's time to consider following the French model of jump racing where there are no novice or juvenile events but plenty restricted to fillies and mares. This would provide the kind of incentive that's needed to keep a smart, crowd-pulling horse like Grangeclare Lark in training.

MACARTHUR STARTS TO LOOK VERY INTERESTING FOR THE DERBY

I've been doing a bit of research recently into three year old colts that have just one run at two over and then run a big race over 10 furlongs or more on their seasonal debuts at three - earning a Racing Post rating of 104 or more - or a big speed rating (36+) from me. Most turn out to be Group 1 performers. There have only been a handful in recent years and they've included High-Rise and Galileo, both of whom went on to win the Derby.

The latest qualifier on this interesting angle is MACARTHUR (36) who ran a huge race to finish a close third in the Ballysax Stakes on his seasonal debut. What makes the performance all the more remarkable is that he's trained by Aiden O'Brien whose three year old colts always come on a good deal for their seasonal debuts - especially when they've previously had just the one previous run as is the case with Macarthur.

The winner Mores Wells (37) had the benefit of a previous run and the second Ferneley (37) had five runs as a juvenile, so I don't think they're going to make the improvement that would be needed to develop into Classic contenders. The record of horses like Macarthur and of his trainer though suggest that he will. Therefore I'd be inclined to take a bit of the 12-1 or 14-1 now available about Macarthur's chances at Epsom because I strongly suspect he's going to take the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial next time out.

ZAFARWAL IS BETTER THAN A HANDICAPPER

It takes a smart three year old to win a maiden race by a dozen lengths in the Spring anywhere in Europe. And my ratings indicate ZAFARWAL (37) is undoubtedly smart following his wide margin success at Tipperary. His assistant trainer suggested to reporters after the race that Zafarwal is only a handicapper. The clock says he's wrong. I rated this a Group 3 class performance for a three year old this early in the year.

What makes Zafarwal's big win all the more remarkable is that he's clearly bred to appreciate a step up to ten furlongs or more but raced over a mere seven and a half here.

DANDY MAN AS GOOD AS EVER

DANDY MAN (40) hosed up in fast time to take a Listed Sprint at Naas on his seasonal debut. He's actually earned speed ratings as high as 42 from me in the past which gives him a real shot of winning some of the very best sprints.

Over five furlongs on fast ground is a tough horse to beat and admirably consistent. I rate him the fastest sprinter that Ireland has produced since Namid.

FOLLOWMYFOOTSTEPS LOOKS A CLASSIC PROSPECT

You don't see many Classic prospects winning maidens at Tipperary. However my ratings suggest that we saw one when FOLLOWMYFOOTSTEPS (36) scored at the track last week. He won with any amount in hand in Listed class time and is entered up in a whole stack of Group 1 races.

I don't know where Followmyfootsteps goes next but it looks likely that he can improve markedly on this effort and that makes him worthy of a shot at a Group 1 race.

SPEED DREAM IS A HIGH CLASS SPRINTER

SPEED DREAM (38) clocked a seriously fast time to take a hot Conditions race at Tipperary over five furlongs on what was only his third lifetime start. I have little doubt that he'll be scoring in Group company before long though it's too early to be confident about what circumstances suit him best.

Similar comments apply to DIVERT (38) who finished well to run Speed Dream to a head. She would be a cinch to win a Group sprint for 3YO fillies if only there were such a race. But even against older males she still ought to earn a fair bit of black type judged on this run.

PORTO MARMAY IS PATTERN CLASS

With only four months of the season left, Choisir is the leading first season sire in Australia. Now, following the success of PORTO MARMAY (32) in the rather aptly named Coolmore Choisir EBF maiden at Cork, the Australian speedball heads the first season sires list in Europe as well.

In Australia three of Choisir's first eight runners went on to at least place in pattern company. Porto Marmay seems likely to do the same judged on the time she ran here. Indeed her trainer said after the race that she'll probably be going for the Listed Coolmore Stakes at the Curragh next month. She should go close there.

SAWHERFIRSTANDKNEW (32) stepped up massively on her debut effort to run the winner to a neck. The faster ground seems the most logical cause for her improvement. Certainly wherever she runs next Sawherfirstandknew should be respected. She should have no trouble breaking her maiden and has a good chance of earning black type on this run.

GEMINI LUCY LOOKS TOUGH TO BEAT IN SWORDLESTOWN CUP

GEMINI LUCY (40) earned a seriously good speed rating from me when running away with the valuable Dan Moore Chase at Fairyhouse. This was an exceptionally good run from a novice facing more experienced rivals and makes Gemini Lucy a viable candidate for all the big two mile chases next term. Meanwhile she has a date at the Punchestown Festival where she should be very hard to beat if she gets the fast ground she needs in the Swordlestown Cup.

So far Gemini Lucy has run on officially yielding or faster ground five times over fences and won every single time. I actually rated it fast enough for her on my going allowances when she lost at Cheltenham but trainer Jessica Harrington explained her sub-par run that day by saying she prefers to go right-handed. Punchestown is right-handed, the going is usually fast, so she looks tough to beat in the Swordlestown Cup. She will certainly be the fastest runner going into the race on my ratings.

EMMPAT USEFUL ON FAST GROUND

Charlie Swan has kept fast ground specialist EMMPAT (37) away from the races all through this wet Winter. And he had his patience rewarded when the nine year old won the valuable Menolly Homes handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse. He now goes for the Swinton Hurdle at Haydock, another valuable event that's invariably run on fast ground.

Emmpat has won five of the last seven times he's run on the flat or over hurdles on ground that has the word 'firm' in the official description. If it turns out that way at Haydock he'll have a decent shot of improving on his fourth placing in the race last year.

ONE COOL GUY A SMART CHASING PROSPECT

The point to point championship bumper at Fairyhouse invariably produces some smart horses. And it did so again this year according to my ratings as the winner ONE COOL GUY (34) recorded an unusually fast time for this sort of race.

ONE COOL GUY lost his point to point debut by a head and scored comfortably on his only other start between the flags. Clearly he's a smart novice chasing prospect so it's probably a wise move on the part of his connections to put him straight over fences next season. I'd be surprised if he doesn't prove competitive in pattern company at that game.

Runner-up NAKAI (34) had won two seconds slower time than One Cool Guy at the same point to point meeting back in February. But he narrowed the gap to just a length this time and might well have won had he not run green. He too looks a useful prospect for next term.

CREACHADOIR LOOKS INTERESTING FOR PRIX DU JOCKEY CLUB

Last year a colt by King's Best ran a close second in the Prix du Jockey Club. This year the Kildangan Stud stallion looks to have a good chance of going one better thanks to CREACHADOIR (38).

Seeing that he's a half brother to one of Europe's top 12 furlong runners in Youmzain, it's pretty amazing that Creachadoir had the speed required to win Leopardstown's 2,000 Guineas Trial. And he didn't just win it. He blasted home by nearly four lengths in a time that ranks as Group 2 class for a three year old this early in the season.

Creachadoir showed the same sort of acceleration that makes Youmzain such a potent force at middle distances. He looks an exciting prospect as he seems so likely to improve when stepped up to middle distances.

ARCH SWING NEEDS TO RUN FASTER

As a producer of speed ratings I hate slow run races because they tell me nothing. So all I can report about the 1,000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown is that ARCH SWING (25) won in very slow time in a race where none of the first eight was separated by more than three quarters of a length.

Arch Swing ran a Group 3 class time as a juvenile and is unbeaten. But she'll need to run a fair bit quicker than this to win a Classic.

The two horses I'm going to take out of this race are THEANN (24) and LISCANNA (24) as both got to within a length of the winner despite coming from off the pace - which is a very hard thing to do in a slow run race.

ONE COOL COOKIE PROBABLY BEST FRESH

ONE COOL COOKIE (39) beat the smart SCHINDLERS HUNT (38) to take the Powers Gold Cup. But I don't think he's a smart bet to follow up this success at the Punchestown Festival. My read of his form is that he is best off a lay-off and doesn't stay three miles in a truly run race.

I know that trainer Charlie Swan feels that One Cool Cookie is better right-handed and will get the longer trip at Punchestown. You can argue a fair case for this seeing that he won over three miles in a point to point and jumped right when losing at Leopardstown. But he beat the useful Sir Frederick on a tight left-handed track and plenty of horses 'stay' three miles at the slow pace most point to points are run. No, as I see it, there's a good reason he's won the last three times he's come into a race off a break of six weeks or more and only ever won a maiden hurdle off a shorter break. If I'm right One Cool Cookie is going to run a clunker at Punchestown..

Schindlers Hunt equalled the best rating I've given him so far to run One Cool Cookie close. I reckon he appreciated the faster ground. I say this because he lost off a six month lay-off when encountering fast ground on his chasing debut but has won the previous four most recent times he's encountered what was yielding or faster ground according to my going allowances. Seeing that the going is likely to suit him at Punchestown I'd say he's got a much better chance of scoring there than the winner.

DANCING HERO A SMART NOVICE HURDLER

It was very sad that G'Day Mate (37) broke down and had to be euthanized after winning a hot Gowran Park Maiden hurdle in seriously fast time. He might well have been a top class performer.

The runner-up DANCING HERO (36) looks worth following. He was one of the best bumper horses last term but has taken a while to find his form over timber. On this run he probably won't be quite good enough for whichever of the big novice hurdles he ends up tackling at the Punchestown Festival. But next season his experience is likely to give him quite an edge over other novice hurdlers.

EZIMA A SERIOUS CLASSIC PROSPECT

EZIMA (37) recorded a remarkably fast time when breaking her maiden at Navan. She and the runner-up IN A RUSH (36) pulled nine lengths clear of the third and are both smart according to my ratings.

In fact I have to rate Ezima a serious Classic prospect on this run. So I'm not surprised trainer Jim Bolger already has her entered up in two Group 1 races, including the Prix de Diane (French Oaks). She only won over a mile here. But the going was really heavy and Navan is a very testing track. Therefore I have little doubt Ezima will do even better over middle distances and will probably prove best at a mile and a half, just as her pedigree suggests.

At this point I wouldn't mind having a few pennies on Ezima for the Irish Oaks if only someone were betting on the race.

In A Rush was making her racecourse debut and should have no problem winning next time out. She too is capable of earning black tupe, though it's hard to say at what trip right now as her pedigree could be interpreted to say she'll be best at a mile or over ten furlongs.

OFFSHORE ACCOUNT HAS REAL CHANCE AT PUNCHESTOWN

OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (37) was apparently bought as a potential Cross Country horse (he's related to Risk Of Thunder) and will doubtless try that game eventually. But for now he's clearly a very decent novice chaser. He proved this by winning a Grade 3 event at Limerick in decent time from the smart LAETITIA (37) who sadly returned lame.

Offshore Account began his chasing career by running second to Knight Legend in what I rated one of the fastest novice chases of the season. That race was over two and a half miles, and it seems clear he's better over the three miles he ran here. He's now won three in a row since his chasing debut and has a real chance on my ratings in the Grade 1 Ellier Developments Novice Chase at Punchestown.

Incidentally I'm not sure that Offshore Account really needs soft ground as is widely supposed. It was only a bit slower than good here. I suspect it's just a test of stamina he wants.