MIKHAIL GLINKA IS A BIG PLAYER IN THE DERBY

MIKHAIL GLINKA (38) put up a tremendous performance in the Ballysax Stakes to get beat in a three way photo. Nine times out of ten he would have won the race handsomely. But the pace, traffic and inexperience conspired against him.

AT FIRST SIGHT (38) had shared pacemaking duties in the recent public gallop at the Curragh where Mikhail Glinka produced that great turn of foot to get up and touch off St Nicholas Abbey. Here he made the running again but he went too slow.

In fact At First Sight covered the first three furlongs 3.1 seconds slower than the leaders went in the 50-80 handicap over the same trip. This gave him and his nearest pursuer PUNCHER CLYNCH (38) a huge tactical edge in the sprint from home.

At First Sight very nearly repeated the feat of that other Coolmore pacemaker Balestrini who won the Ballysax back in 2003. But Puncher Clynch just managed to wear him down. However it was hard not to be drawn to the remarkable way Mikhail Glinka finished.

As they hit the furlong pole Mikhail Glinka was three and a half lengths back in sixth place and looked to have a huge task on to catch the first two who were still flying thanks to going slow early. But he surged forward only to hesitate until 100 yards out while he changed his path slightly to get around Famous Warrior. He absolutely surged forward from there, gaining another two lengths but was still a short head and a neck short down the line.

I doubt that the first two are any better than Group 3 class horses. But the tremendous burst of speed Mikhail Glinka showed once again to so nearly snatch the race out of the fire tells me he's a serious Group 1 runner and a big player in the Derby.

There was always a danger that this big, tall, good bodied, muscular, mature, classy looking sort would find the ten furlongs a little too short, and the modest early pace made that a reality.

Mikhail Glinka is very stoutly bred. His sire is Galileo who gets plenty of stayers and his dam is a 12 furlong winner that's a half sister to Derby winner Sir Percy. He's clearly built for at least a mile and a half himself and looks certain to improve over the Derby distance.

The most impressive thing about Mikhail Glinka is that he has improved with every start. This is not uncommon with an Aiden O'Brien horse and is understandable. He has shown clear signs of inexperience in his races, and these have diminished with each successive outing.

Three runs back Mikhail Glinka showed impressive acceleration to run away with a nine furlong Listed race at Leopardstown. He came from the back and won full of running by four lengths despite still looking green.

Next time out in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud Mikhail Glinka improved again. Held up, he lost about a length and a half on the fast finishing winner in the final furlong and a half but gained so much ground on the rest that he passed six of them to take second. As on his previous start he still looked green in the closing stages - carrying his head a little too high and racing rather lazily and unfocused.

Finally in a one mile gallop at the Curragh on March 21st where they picked up to go racing pace the last half mile, Mikhail Glinka came with a strong run down the outside to pick up and score by about a neck from Racing Post Trophy winner St Nicholas Abbey.

Mikhail Glinka has a smart turn of foot and a smooth action, so he looked very likely to improve for the faster surface at Leopardstown, as Aiden O'Brien suggested beforehand.

If he were mine I'd be inclined to skip the obvious next step of going for the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial because the ten furlongs of that race might well find him out again. His stable has other horses for that race anyway. I'd prefer to see Mikhail Glinka shoot for the Lingfield Derby Trial or Chester Vase instead as the longer distance of those races will play to his strengths. I guess the Chester Vase is booked for Cape Blanco as he's now so big, strong and deep chested he'll need every yard of the mile and a half and already looks a Leger candidate. That leaves the 11.5 furlong Lingfield Derby Trial for Mikhail Glinka, and I'm betting that's what he shoots for.

I have been concerned for some time that St Nicholas Abbey may well be too gangly to negotiate Tattenham Corner effectively. So whatever he does between now and Epsom, I'm still going to regard Mikhail Glinka as O'Brien's number one Derby candidate unless Jan Vermeer does something truly sensational.

As I see it the 50-1 that totesport are offering about Mikhail Glinka for the Derby is barking mad. He beat their 7-4 favourite St Nicholas Abbey fair and square in that gallop and looks the more likely of the two to be suited to the course and distance at Epsom.

KEREDARI IS TOP CLASS

KEREDARI (41) put up a terrific performance to win the Loughbrown Stakes at the Curragh. His final time was three fifths of a second slower than Kargali ran in the Group 3 on the same card, but that's only because he went a slow early pace. He picked up tremendously in the final three furlongs, coming home from there a huge 1.6 seconds faster than Kargali. When I adjust for this it suggests a proper Group 1 speed rating for a three year old this early in the year.

Keredari is a good moving horse that's already won on fast ground. So I don't see any problem if the ground is faster for his next big target, the Irish 2000 Guineas.

Whatever comes out of the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket to tackle the Irish version will have a fight on their hands against Keredari. This is a smart horse that looks set to become one of the top milers this year.

If there was another potential Guineas winner in the line up it is surely ALFRED NOBEL (32). He was held up quite some way back off the early pace and had an impossible task to gain so much ground into a sprint finish. He did move up briefly but was putting his head to one side and didn't look to be getting through the heavy ground very well at all.

I know Alfred Nobel won the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes at two on heavy ground. But horses do all sorts of things at two that they fail to replicate when they're more mature. And a horse with such a terrific turn of foot as Alfred Nobel surely needs a fast surface to make it fully effective.

It's worth noting that Alfred Nobel cruised home in third place in a recent public gallop at the Curragh behind Lord High Admiral and Fencing Master. At the time it looked like he could have picked up the first two with ease if he'd been ridden as seriously as them. But now I'm thinking the reason he wasn't ridden out there is that his rider knew he'd fall to pieces if asked to stretch out on the heavy ground.

An alternative explanation for Alfred Nobel's sub par run is that he doesn't stay beyond six furlongs in decent company. He did break his maiden over seven furlongs but has run unplaced all four times he's run beyond six furlongs since. I have trouble buying into this idea because Alfred Nobel has the build of a miler rather than a sprinter.

The final possible reason for Alfred Nobel's performance is that he has some physical problem. He has after all carried his head at an odd angle in his last two starts. But right now I'm betting that's because he disliked the Pro-Ride in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the heavy ground here. I still see him as a serious prospect for the French 2,000 Guineas where his terrific acceleration will be a powerful weapon on the fast ground that normally prevails for that race

Only if he flops there would I like to see him cut back to five and six furlongs.

BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN IS PRETTY SPECIAL

BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN (39) looked a certainty as he cruised into second place turning for home in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Fairyhouse's Grand National meeting. But he ran green when he hit the front and also didn't seem to be getting through the bottomless ground very well. This allowed the ultra game front runner LUSKA LAD (39) to rally back past him in the last fifty yards.

Blackstairmountain didn't seem to get up the hill at Cheltenham. But he would have won his other four most recent starts if he hadn't bumped into a potential Group racer when running a close second on the flat last June. He's a good-bodied, really classing looking sort that trainer Willie Mullins has repeatedly said would perform better on faster ground. I think he's right and believe he'll turn this form around with Luska Lad in the Champion Novice Hurdle at Punchestown.

Luska Lad won't be a pushover at Punchestown. He wasn't quite right when losing a couple of races in November according to his trainer. He's won eight of his other nine most recent starts and run second in the Champion Bumper at Punchestown when losing.

JADANLI STAYS VERY WELL

Let Yourself Go set too strong a pace for the very heavy ground in the Powers Gold Cup. As a result the race became a tremendous test of stamina over the last mile. The only horse that managed to keep up the gallop was JADANLI (39) who is clearly going to be suited to much longer distances than the two and a half miles of this contest.

The impressive thing about Jadanli's win is that he raced in third in the early stages, only 15-20 lengths off the lopsidedly fast early gallop. The fact that he was able to keep going while all his rivals tipped up or ground to a halt suggests to me that he'd have had a real shot if he'd run in the Irish Grand National the next day.

To be specific, Jadanli ran only 1.7 seconds slower from the sixth last fence than the winner did in the other chase on the card where the leaders went about 15 seconds slower up to that point. His rivals all stopped due to the pace but he kept on running.

It looked to me that Jadanli won this race purely on merit. Okay he'd probably have got beat if the early pace had been more sensible because the distance would have been inadequate. But over three miles plus he's clearly a very good horse.

I'm rating ZAARITO (39) the same as the winner because I think he'd have run about as fast if he'd stood up instead of falling yet again two out. I'm not saying he'd have won. I reckon he'd have finished second. It's just that the winner was basically left alone when he fell and would surely have run a smidge quicker but for this.

Zaarito looked bound to score when he put in a quick jump and surged into the lead four out. Indeed he sailed three lengths clear in no time and was going so well his jockey was looking back for dangers turning in. However he'd raced in second place only 7-10 lengths off the kamikaze front runner and looked to be paying the price for that when Jadanli moved back alongsides just before he fell.

This was the fifth time that Zaarito has fallen in his last nine starts. But it's worth bearing in mind that all his falls have come on soft or heavy ground. He's a good moving horse that's surely better on a quicker surface. And he's not as big or strong as many chasers so probably has more trouble jumping out of a really soft surface. When he encounters quicker ground I wouldn't worry about him completing the course.

Having seen this run I'm not surprised Zaarito has been entered for the Champion Novice Chase over 3m 1f at the Punchestown Festival. He was well clear of the rest when tipping up in a race that rode like a three mile plus contest here thanks to the tremendous early gallop. On the much faster ground that seems likely at Punchestown I reckon he'll have a serious shot.

I think it's safe to draw a line through this run for the other horses that took part. All the race proved is that they don't have the stamina for what was effectively a three mile plus race.

SOLE POWER MAY WELL BE THE TOP IRISH SPRINTER

Ireland doesn't produce many top class five furlong runners barring juveniles. But SOLE POWER (39) looks to be just such a horse because he's just lowered Dundalk's five furlong track record by over half a second.

After breaking smartly, Sole Power had the option of leading but his jockey chose to drop him back and find cover in fifth spot. He had to force his way through a gap when coming through to challenge, making contact with the horses on either side of him. But he produced a good turn of foot to win the race well by just over a length without his rider having to push him right out.

Sole Power had bolted up the only previous time he'd run five furlongs on fast ground, also on Dundalk's Polytrack. He's clearly effective on turf, judged by some useful runs on unsuitable ground and over six furlongs, which seems a little far for him.

It's tough for a three year old to win big Group 1 five furlong sprints like the Abbaye, the King's Stand and the Nunthorpe. But Sole Power showed plenty of speed here and deserves a crack at those races. Meanwhile the Listed Woodlands Stakes at Naas would seem a logical target if he gets his ground.