YEATS STILL HAS IT

YEATS (36) showed that he still has pace as well as stamina when winning the Vintage Crop Stakes at Navan on his seasonal debut. The early pace was slow and the race developed into a sprint up the straight. At first Yeats looked to be in trouble. But eventually he rallied to get by the smart RED MOLONEY (36) who had stolen a march on him.

Yeats will now bid to win the Ascot Gold Cup for a third time. This run indicates he has a real chance of pulling it off even though he'll probably face the strongest opponent he's ever come up against in the unbeaten Coastal Path.

One thing worth noting about Yeats is that while he has won eleven of his fourteen starts in Britain and Ireland he's run nothing but clunkers in four outings when he's traveled further from home. I'd bet on that trend continuing.

Funnily enough runner-up Red Moloney is an even more extreme example of a horse that dislikes traveling according to his trainer. The horse's best runs have all been at tracks relatively close to his home base in County Kildare.

Red Moloney's big target now is the Irish Leger. But he should be a threat to take any other race he contests locally beforehand. After all this was his first defeat at his local tracks in six tries beyond a mile and he's earned good Group 2 speed ratings from me on several occasions.

ARBOR SUPREME SET TO WIN MORE BIG CHASES

You don't often see a horse win a staying chase as easily as ARBOR SUPREME (39) did at Punchestown. He was cruising from a long way out, strolled clear of his rivals in the closing stages and won with any amount in hand.

Arbor Supreme had finished second to Chelsea Harbor in a fast three and a half mile race earlier this season but this run was a whole lot better. The comments of his connections suggest the improvement was brought about by the faster ground. Indeed they apparently intend to aim him at the Nennessy at Newbury next season.

I imagine Arbor Supreme will spend a fair bit of time in Britain next year as they have more big handicap chases beyond three miles than are available locally. But wherever he runs I'd be wary of opposing him at long trips on fast ground.

Runner-up BLACK APALACHI (38) has won or gone close in a whole string og big staying chases now. He doesn't take a lot of racing according to his trainer, so he probably benefited from the fact that he tipped up at the second in the Grand National last time as this meant it was nearly seven weeks back to his last completed start. So far all his wins but one have come on one of his first two starts of the season or with a five week break between his completed starts thereafter. When he's fresh he's clearly capable of winning another big handicap chase.

BIG ZEB IS IMPROVING

BIG ZEB (38) won the Swordelstown Cup at Punchestown in decent time. He's now won or finished second to a high class rival in nine of his ten completed starts. Clearly he's versatile and consistent. Equally clearly he is improving. This is almost certainly because he's getting better at jumping. His connections still feel there's more improvement in him, so it's hard to say how good he'll end up being. Right now I'm reluctant to knock him as he's done just about everything that could be expected of him.

THYNE AGAIN (36) stayed on well in the closing stages to take second on ground that was too fast for him over a trip that's almost certainly too short. I still think he could stay three miles and look forward to seeing him try that trip sometime next season.

PERCE ROCK (29) was dreadfully disappointing. Perhaps he would have preferred softer ground. Maybe he simply took on J'Y Vole at too fast a pace up front. But I have to say I'm now beginning to think he's one of those horses that looks great when facing inferior rivals but folds against top class competition. So far he's won five times out of five in Grade 3 or lower class but lost all six Grade 1 and 2 races he's contested.

TRANQUIL SEA BEST OVER LONGER

Trainer Edward O'Grady says that with hindsight he thinks he ran TRANQUIL SEA (39) in the wrong race at the Cheltenham Festival. It's certainly looking that way because since stepping up to longer trips the horse has won two times out of two, including in the Land Rover Champion Novice Hurdle at Punchestown.

Tranquil Sea beat the Ballymore Properties winner FIVEFORTHREE (38) into second place, so he clearly would have had a major chance if he'd run in that race at Cheltenham instead of the Supreme Novices. In any event he will be going chasing next season where he should take high rank among the top novices. His connections feel he's best on faster ground, and this performance bore them out. Indeed Tranquil Sea has now won both times he's run over hurdles on good ground.

Fiveforthree looked like he was going to blow past the winner when he made his run but was held in the last half furlong. You could argue he was feeling the effects of having raced just three days earlier but this was his fastest effort yet according to my speed ratings.

The bookies introduced Fiveforthree into the betting for the Sun Alliance Chase next season along with the winner. But my feeling is that the serious turn of foot he's shown will actually make him a better prospect for the Arkle and other big two mile novice chases. The concern is that he lacks the size and scope of the winner and may not take to chasing. Personally I suspect he will.

The good thing is that Fiveforthree showed here he can act on fast ground which was in question before. This opens up more opportunities to him.

SCOTSIRISH SHOULD STAY THREE MILES

SCOTSIRISH (38) has a reputation as a dodgy jumper. But I've suspected for a while that this stoutly bred sort has simply been stretched into jumping errors over fences by being run over trips too short for him. Sure enough he jumped perfectly well and produced his best ever run when stepped up to 2m 5f at the Punchestown Festival where he scored pretty impressively in fast time.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Scotsirish improve again over three miles. Certainly he's already run fast enough to justify his trainer's high opinion of him and rank as a candidate for more big race wins.

TWIST MAGIC CAN STAY WHEN THE GROUND IS FAST

If there were one mile, six furlong chases TWIST MAGIC (40) would be a whole lot more consistent. But he only just gets the minimum distance of two miles and has had real difficulty doing so on galloping tracks unless the early pace was slow.

With this in mind I figured that Twist Magic was in serious trouble in the Kerrygold Champion Chase at Punchestown because a strong pace seemed certain. But, despite tiring badly and finishing almost legless, he still managed to hold on for a very hard fought win.

Clearly I now need to add another proviso to Twist Magic's stamina limitations. Not only can he get home on a galloping track if the early pace is slow, he can also do so on ground as firm as it was at Punchestown. I'm not saying that he'd ever last home at Cheltenham, even off a slow pace and when the ground is riding like a road. But clearly his stamina limitations aren't quite as clear cut as I'd thought.

I reckon that the runner-up NATAL (39) also needs a bit of a re-think. In the past trainer Paul Nicholls has said the horse doesn't like a flat out gallop and is best on dead flat tracks. But here he equalled his best ever performance off a very strong pace on a track with pronounced gradients.

My thinking now is that Natal is simply a horse that lacks stamina. Until I'm proven wrong I'm going to bet that he doesn't get home on very stiff tracks (Sandown, Cheltenham, Navan, Naas, Towcester, Carlisle) is best over two to two and a half miles and doesn't stay an inch further. He's won ten times out of twelve in these circumstances.

MANSONY (39) finished strongest to take a close third after getting outpaced five out. He's run a smidge below his best on his last two starts and I now reckon he can't produce absolute top form without a bit of cut in the ground.

Similar comments apply to fourth placed SCHINDLERS HUNT (38) who had to be ridden from a long way out before finally staying on well late when the winner began to grind to a half in the closing stages. He's run nothing but good races, at least in Ireland when the ground has been even slightly slower than good but has yet to produce his best in four races on good or faster going.

FAIR ALONG got beat a distance, becoming totally outpaced on the fast ground after an early mistake. He will apparently be stepped up to much longer distances next season. This makes a lot of sense as he's an out and out stayer on the flat and ran right up to form according to my ratings despite setting a searching pace when fourth to Kauto Star in the Ascot chase over nearly 2m 6f.

AIR FORCE ONE BEST RIGHT-HANDED

I've knocked AIR FORCE ONE (39) before because he failed to clock a fast time. He did so when beating the smart mare POMME TIEPY (35) in the Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown. Now that he has a very obvious pattern has emerged in his form.

So far all the eight wins scored by Air Force One have come on right handed tracks. In fact he has now won six of his seven completed jumps starts on right handed tracks and finished a close second to top novice Albertas Run in his sole loss. (I count Fontwell as right-handed because the all-important home turn is right-handed). Air Force One has lost all four times he's gone left-handed. In fact he's never got closer than a dozen lengths off the winner.

Air Force One made all the running here and soon had Pomme Tiepy and the rest in trouble when he kicked on from four out. He came home from that point 1.2 seconds faster than they did in the Kerrygold Champion Chase over a mile shorter. Okay they'd gone a bit too fast in the shorter race, but Air Force One would have gone about half a second quicker if he hadn't been eased on the run in.

The obvious targets for Air Force One next term are all the big three mile chases run on right-handed tracks. Which basically means Irish contests plus the King George. I suspect he'll prove competitive in such races. But if he doesn't I'd nominate the Bet365 Gold Cup or Irish National as viable targets as he clearly stays very well.

I don't think the fast ground was to blame for Pomme Tiepy's sub-par performance. She won on very fast ground at Nancy. And horses with a turn of foot like hers invariably prefer it faster. I rather suspect that, like a lot of mares, Pomme Tiepy is at her best during the Winter months when there's no danger of her coming into season. In this regard it's interesting to note that Pomme Tiepy won a minor race on April 1st last year but after that date through to November she's scored just once in eight tries. She's won all four of her completed starts during the Winter.

JERED SHOWS THAT AMAZING ACCELERATION AGAIN

I can't recall seeing a jumper show the extraordinary acceleration JERED (24) has displayed this season. He did so once again when simply running away with the Champion Novice hurdle at Punchestown.

Second-placed SALFORD CITY (20) has a terrific record when he's allowed to set a slow pace on fast ground. But Jered quickened to catch him and then sprinted clear with very little effort.

At this point I'm inclined to regard Jered as an unstoppable force over hurdles on fast ground. Perhaps his lack of size will mean he finds trouble in running in bigger fields. Maybe he'll not look so good in more strongly run races. But my gut feel is that on fast ground he's the best hurdler around right now and a very serious candidate for next year's Champion Hurdle.

NEPTUNE COLLONGES TOUGH TO BEAT AWAY FROM CHELTENHAM

NEPTUNE COLLONGES (40) had a huge reputation in France. But in Britain he has lived in the shadow of his two stablemates Kauto Star and Denman who he finished third to in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time.

FREDS BENEFIT DOES IT AGAIN

FREDS BENEFIT (19) is one of the top novice chasers according to my speed ratings. So it's not that surprising he won at the Punchestown Festival. But I confess I find him hard to fathom.

The most logical explanation for the in and out form shown by Freds Benefit is that, like his half brother Sher Beau, he has stamina limitations. Exclude his chase starts at very stiff tracks or over three miles and his remaining runs over the bigger jumps would show four wins from five tries but for one contest where he fell with the race one.

The problem with this theory is that Freds Benefit won a strongly run race over 2m 5f in mud. And here it looked to be stamina that won him the day.

Freds Benefit had to come from far back at Punchestown thanks to a bad mistake at the first which cost him a lot of ground. This was fortuitous as it turned out because the leaders went off too fast. They set such a strong pace that the entire field tired over the last four fences, taking two and a half seconds longer to get home from there than they did in the big chase over seven furlongs longer. Freds Benefit steadily gained ground on the leaders as they tired, took the lead on the run in and won going away.

When the early pace is so strong it hurts the final time as badly as it did here, the winner is invariably a horse that stays much longer trips. This being so I'm going to hold off on saying that Freds Benefit doesn't stay until more information comes in. My suspicion at this stage is that he's an out and out two and a half mile specialist that's only effective at shorter trips when the pace is very strong indeed - as it was here and when he won on his chasing debut when going off at an incredibly fast early pace.

DON'T GIVE UP ON FOUR STAR GENERAL

Having clocked the sectional times for every two year old race this season I can now understand why two year olds are restricted to trips of two, three and four furlongs in the early part of the year in so many countries. In reality that's how far they actually run even when the official distance is five furlongs or more. Most of the time jockeys seem to give early season juveniles a couple of furlongs to settle before they ask them to go at proper racing pace. And quite often when they do go a true pace early on they fail to get home. Either way the result is a slow final time.

Rather than have almost meaningless speed ratings for two year olds I've adopted a formula this season which combines ratings based on the fastest three furlongs and the final time.

This formula suggests that VILASOL (37) produced the best performance we've seen from a two year old so far this season when taking the first six furlong maiden for juveniles run at Leopardstown last Sunday.

Vilasol is a narrow, wiry, medium-sized sort that looks as though he'd get seven furlongs without much trouble. He ran fourth in what looked like a very good race at the Curragh on his debut. He was slow away there and was asked to gain ground into an accelerating pace which is no easy task. He'd moved into a pretty close fourth by the furlong pole from last place early. But once his jockey saw he wasn't going to improve his position he was given an easy time from there.

This time, over the extra furlong, and with a turn to slow things down, Vilasol had no trouble going the early pace even when it quickened. He raced comfortably in second place, disputed the lead as the pace wound up from half a mile out and kicked on as the field sprinted up the straight. He never looked in real trouble and kept going strongly to the line as the placed horses closed in on him though the last furlong.

It's possible that Vilasol will once more be outpaced when he switches back to a race on a straight course. But my feeling from watching him is that he's a well balanced willing sort that's going to prove versatile. He should be able to win in Group company.

RYEHILL DREAMER (36) is much bigger than the winner, being good-bodied, muscular, close-coupled and mature. He looks like a three year old. He wears a bit designed for hard pullers and this no doubt explains why he was held up.

After about a furlong Ryehill Dreamer had to be taken up slightly to avoid the horse in front of him. He then raced in heavy traffic all the way around the turn before trying to come out and find a way through early in the straight. As he did so he made contact with the favourite FOUR STAR GENERAL (28) who became unbalanced, rolled inwards and bumped Ryehill Dreamer back onto the rail. Ryehill Dreamer found a gap soon after and proceeded to gain ground strongly all the way to the line to finish half a length second. It sounds pretty bad but I'm not sure the result would have been different if Ryehill Dreamer had a totally clear run. In any even he too is clearly Group class and a smart prospect. His pedigree says he'll go longer but his physique says maybe not, so I will sit on the fence on the issue at this stage.

Third placed DAGGERS BOND (35) also had to be taken back slightly as the early paced slowed a bit and the field compressed shortly after leaving the stalls. He raced at the back and became a bit outpaced as the gallop quickened but then proceeded to stay on strongly all the way up the straight. His physique suggests to me that he might well get ten furlongs plus next year, so he did well to run such a big race in a six furlong race where they went slow early. Clearly he's a useful prospect.

SOLASAI (35) was in a line of three horses a length and a half behind the two pace-setters for most of the trip. She seemed to have less difficulty than any of the other runners keeping up when the race became a flat out sprint up the straight and moved into a clear second. She didn't tire or make any progress but was simply outfinished by the eventual second and third who both passed her in the final furlong. Her short neck, the speedy dam's side of her pedigree and the way she ran all suggest to me that six furlongs is going to be her limit, at least at this stage. And I see her cutting back to five without a problem. This makes her a serious prospect for the Queen Mary.

CHIEF WILD CAT (32) disputed the lead for much of the way. But the first four were running away from him throughout the final furlong as he tired. Perhaps he needs to cut back to five furlongs to secure his maiden win before trying this far again later.

Four Star General's problems began when he became a bit unbalanced and went wide rounding the home turn. He was inclined to move towards the rail thereafter and hadn't straightened up yet when making contact with Ryehill Dreamer. That caused him to get really wobbly and lose ground which was compounded when he was then squeezed out as he fell back. His jockey saw there was nothing to be done with a furlong to go, so he didn't give him a hard time of things.

Early on Four Star General was moving best of all and fairly cruised up into a clear third just before they hit the apex of the home turn. My feeling is that he'd have won or gone very close if the race had been run on a straight course. No doubt he'll handle a turn as he gains experience, but from a betting standpoint I'd prefer him up the straight next time. He's a good-bodied, mature classy sort with a terrific pedigree. I'd be surprised if he doesn't prove Group class.

ALESSANDRO VOLTA THE HORSE TO TAKE OUT OF BALLYSAX

I must have replayed the video of the Ballysax Stakes twenty times in an attempt to find something decent to say about the first three Moiqen (37), Hebridean (36) and Unwritten Rule (36). But the fact is they were all fully extended in a bunch finish and clocked times that peg them as Listed or Group 3 class at best. None of them are that good looking. I just don't see any of them becoming candidates for a Derby.

The horse that impressed me with the way he moved so smoothly was ALESSANDRO VOLTA (33). His saddle slipped, so he got unbalanced and his jockey could be of little assistance. Yet he still managed to get the lead at the entrance to the straight even though he didn't handle the home turn so well thanks to his equipment problems. He was given a pretty easy time of things in the closing stages and looked to finish much more full of run than any of the others. He's a big, really good looking horse that might just be Group 1. I'll be very interested in his chances next time which I imagine will be in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial.

WINCHESTER WOULD HAVE WON THE BALLYSAX

WINCHESTER (36) clocked a time just three tenths of a second slower than the Ballysax Stakes when winning a maiden over the same distance at Leopardstown last Sunday. And I'm convinced if he'd run in the big race he'd have won it. He finished his race with visibly far more reserves than any of the first three in the Ballysax and came home a fair bit faster over the last few furlongs.

Winchester is a big, classy sort with a long stride who quickened up very nicely to put his rivals away in a few strides and win with plenty in reserve.

I think Dermot Weld is right to say Winchester could be an Irish Derby horse. I will certainly be wary of opposing him next time out.

Debutante MOONSTONE (35) shadowed Winchester from the home turn as he began his move, improved with him and ran on well to take second while finishing full of run. Clearly she's going to improve for this run which was the best Oaks Trial we've seen by a filly so far this year.

PASAR SILBANO LOOKS PATTERN CLASS

PASAR SILBANO (33) is a good looking two year old filly with a bit of size and substance to her. He had rather a messy race when winning on her debut on the Poly at Dundalk but still won in taking style. Rushed up, racing wide to take the lead a furlong after the start she moved away from her rivals in classy looking style up the straight before the second CHOOSE ME (32) closed the gap late.

My strong feeling from watching this race is that Pasar Silbano was a class above her rivals and likely to prove competitive in pattern company. She moved like a good horse all the way. I suspect she'll get six furlongs on looks but no further.

Choose Me is a more narrow filly, but she's clearly got a fair bit of ability and should have no trouble franking this form with a win in a maiden soon.

DIMENTICATA CONSISTENT ON A FAST SURFACE

DIMENTICATA (37) won a one mile Conditions race on the Poly at Dundalk, running not far off the form she showed when running second in the Irish Guineas last year. It looks like Kevin Predergast is right to say that she is best on a fast surface over a mile as she's now won or lost by less than a length all five times she's gone a mile or more on good or faster ground or the Poly. She's run a point quicker on my ratings in the past but is going to have to improve to win above Group 3 class this term.

RED MOLONEY HAS A SHOT IN TATTERSALLS GOLD CUP

I've made speed ratings for races run at hundreds of tracks in many different countries. And I'm here to tell you that the Curragh presents by far the biggest challenge. The course occupies a huge amount of real estate which gives scope for the running rails to be moved by larger amounts than at any other track I know of. The result is that you just can't know what the true distance is for races run around the turn. Trying to apply normal methods of making speed ratings in such circumstances can drive you crazy.

For example if you based your calculations on the fastest times run in the last dozen years you would conclude that Jumbajukiba should be credited with a speed rating 22 points bigger than Red Moloney last Sunday because he came 4.4 seconds per mile closer to the fastest time. But watch the video of Red Moloney's race and you'll see that Baron De'L set a seriously good gallop and went well clear in the early stages. Clearly it was a true run race and must merit a rating much higher than 22 points behind Jumbajukiba's contest.

Thankfully there is a way to make sense of times at the Curragh for races around the turn. You simply find a common landmark that they passed in all the races as far from home as possible and time how long they book to get home from that point. You then adjust that time to take account of the different distances before making speed ratings.

When I do this for the Alleged Stakes won by RED MOLONEY (39) everything points to him equaling the big speed rating I gave him last year for his win over the same course.

I liked the way Red Moloney drew away from his rivals so quickly here when finally asserting from a furlong out. This suggests to me that he can probably run a bit faster if pressed harder.

Red Moloney's trainer Kevin Prendergast has a theory to explain why the horse ran below form in the Winter Derby at Lingfield last time out. He suspects the horse isn't a good traveler and that's why he ran below form the only other time he had to travel a long distance from home when losing at Galway.

It's a good theory because it explains all the facts since Red Moloney has won all five times he's run beyond a mile at tracks close to home and run those two clunkers when he's had to travel. But I would add that it's also possible Red Moloney wasn't suited by the very slow early pace and sprint finish of the Winter Derby and that he ran below form for some other reason at Galway.

In any event, I'm going with Prendergast's theory for now and hope that he runs Red Moloney next in the Tattersalls Gold Cup on May 25th. My speed ratings indicate he'd be far from a no-hoper in that contest and that he'd be a good bet to take the Group 3 Mooresbridge Stakes if he ran in that beforehand. It's worth bearing in mind that Prendergast feels Red Moloney is best on a soft surface even though he's won on Dundalk's Polytrack and good to firm turf.

ALARAZI (38) is also best with cut in the ground judged on his record and did well to finish strongly and take second place in such a good contest. This was his first try beyond a mile and it clearly suited him. He's very lightly raced and could be anything. Certainly he ran fast enough here to score in Group company.

Similar comments apply to third placed PROFOUND BEAUTY (37). This Dermot Weld-trained filly ran second to the smart Timarwa in a maiden last year, followed up with a wide margin win then probably didn't stay twelve furlongs on heavy ground when fifth in the Irish Oaks. She may have needed this first run of the season and could well prefer faster going. So I wouldn't like to be too dogmatic about how fast she could be at this point. In this regard it's interesting to note that Weld has Profound Beauty entered up in two Group 1's against males.

DEAUVILLE VISION (37) showed that she just about gets ten furlongs by finishing a good fourth (she has run a couple of points faster at a mile and did tire late here). She is a tremendous mudlark and will surely be taking a Group race on soft or heavy ground soon whether she runs against fillies or colts.

ARKADINA (37) ran her best race yet at the longest trip she's tried in six starts to date. She kept on well and could easily stay further on this showing. A Listed race for fillies should be hers for the taking.

Further back MACARTHUR (31) ran a perfectly respectable race, seeing that the trip was almost certainly too short and, more important, that it was his seasonal debut.

Over the last dozen years Aidan O'Brien run nineteen horses aged four and up in pattern company on their seasonal debuts before May. Four of the six that had previously won in Group 1 company scored. The thirteen without a Group 1 win to their name (like Macarthur) all lost - many at cramped odds. This suggests that Macarthur needed the run.

JUMBAJUKIBA SMART IN MUD

JUMBAJUKIBA (40) made all the running to take a hot renewal of the Gladness Stakes while earning a Group 2 class speed rating from me for the third time. He doesn't have the best of joints according to trainer Jessica Harrington. But he's now won all three time's he's run on ground with a bit of cut in it since joining her and must be considered for any race over seven or eight furlongs he contests on such going.

MAJOR CADEAUX (36) ran second over what is clearly his specialist distance of seven furlongs, but it looked like he was running out of gas late on the bottomless ground on his seasonal debut. I imagine his connections will be tempted into running him over six furlongs or a mile as there are so few opportunities over seven furlongs. But I'd bet on Major Cadeaux continuing to prove best at seven.

US RANGER (32) kept on well for third, looking to run a bit green to my eye (he was carrying his head rather high) and not being given a hard time of things in the closing stages. Indeed, he was moving so well at the finish that I think I need to revise my view that he's a six furlong horse that was only able to win over longer trips in France due to the slow early pace of the races he contested there. I now rather suspect US Ranger is a miler. He's run fast enough to be competitive in Group 1 company and, like most older Coolmore runners, should improve significantly for this seasonal debut.

COCHLEAR DOES IT AGAIN

COCHLEAR (37) earned a write up from me when becoming the widest margin winner to date at Dundalk recently while clocking a pattern class time. The handicapper put him up fifteen pounds for that win but it didn't stop Cochlear following up in a hot mile handicap over the same track from the Group-placed SUMMIT SURGE (37). The first two dueled most of the way up the straight while pulling steadily further away from the rest. And though Cochlear only won by a neck he always looked to be going just the best.

Cochlear may have one more run at Dundalk before being rested and brought back on grass. I don't see any good reason why he shouldn't act on grass, as long as the going is fast. But I confess I'm not quite sure whether a mile will still be his trip when he makes the switch. It could be he'll want seven furlongs instead as Polytrack races generally demand a little less stamina than grass ones due to the slower early pace.

In any event Cochlear is clearly capable of winning another decent handicap like this and is actually borderline pattern class on my speed ratings.

Summit Surge isn't eligible for many handicaps due to his big official rating. But he acts on fast turf and looks capable of winning a Listed race over a mile.

CARRIBEAN SUNSET SHOULD STAY LONGER

I thought PSALM (18) was a good thing to take he Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial last Sunday following her close second in fast time in a red hot race on her only previous start when tenderly handled. But her saddle slipped forward leaving the gate, throwing jockey Johnny Murtagh around the filly's neck where all he could do was hang on and let her come home in her own time. She's a nice looking filly and I suspect she'll still prove competitive in top company.

The race was fought out by CARRIBEAN SUNSET (37) and HALFWAY TO HEAVEN (37), two very different fillies, who pulled clear of the rest as they dueled up the straight.

Pat Smullen probably won the race for Carribean Sunset by pulling her back off what he sensed (and the clock showed) was a fierce early pace. She came through to wear down the winner who had been setting that pace.

Carribean Sunset has the build of a horse that would have no problem getting ten furlongs. She ran a pretty good time, just a couple of lengths slower than the best you'd normally see from a three year old filly at this time of year. How well she does in the Irish 1000 Guineas and other races depends on just how strong the three year old filly population turns out to be. If it's a normal year Carribean Sunset won't be quite good enough to take a Group 1 over a mile. But later over nine or ten furlongs on I can see her doing well in those American fillies races that her trainer Dermot Weld likes to plunder.

Halfway To Heaven is built more like a sprinter. She's much bigger and taller than the winner with a flat stride that would be suited to faster ground. She might well have won if she hadn't disputed the lead at such a strong early pace. But I don't really know where she goes from here. I'd be surprised if she stayed further than the seven furlongs of this race. And seven furlongs is a very bad distance for a three year old filly to specialize at in Europe. It forces her connections to run against males, very often older males, or step her up to a trip she probably won't stay.

FAMOUS NAME LOOKS GOOD FOR THE ITALIAN DERBY

FAMOUS NAME (38) didn't clock anything like a fast time when winning the Leopardstown 2,000 Guineas Trial. But when I invoke the formula I use combining sectional and final times it suggests he's well up to the standard for winners of this race.

Famous Name was always cruising, even when the pace picked up from halfway. And up the straight he began using his long stride to pull further and further away from his rivals while moving smoothly all the way to the line.

I know that Famous Name won over a mile here, and off a slow early pace. But his build is that of an out and out middle distance horse, so I have difficulty seeing him prove effective in Group 1 company over this short a trip. We'll get the chance to find out because he's set to run in either the French Or Irish 2,000 Guineas. Personally I'm convinced his best chance of immediate Group 1 success lies in the Italian Derby over ten and a half furlongs.

Famous Name certainly has the physique of a top horse. He's good-bodied, deep chested and mature with a long flowing stride that will almost certainly be best suited to firmer ground.

AN TADH RUNS BEST EVER RACE WHEN CUT BACK TO FIVE FURLONGS

AN TADH (39) clocked a seriously fast time when beating the useful British raider KNOT IN WOOD (38) to take a Condtions Sprint over five furlongs on Dundalk's Polytrack. He actually ran a bit quicker than he ever has before according to my ratings.

It looks likely that An Tadh was improved by the cut back to the shortest trip he's ever tried. His connections certainly think so because they plan on keeping An Tadh to five and six furlongs this season.

An Tadh did win a ten runner race once, but that was against weak opposition in a contest where the last two home finished far back. All his other wins have come in single figure fields. Seeing how badly he's run recently in races with ten runners or more I strongly suspect he's best in races with nine starters or less.

It also looks likely that An Tadh is best on a fast surface. He did run well on soft ground as a two year old. But it's not uncommon for two year olds to do things they later prove incapable of.

So far An Tadh has run six times on Polytrack or on turf with the word 'firm' in the official going description in fields of nine or less. He's won four of those six times and finished a close second to the smart Mustameet in one of his losses.

I rather wonder whether An Tadh is going to prove effective on straight courses. All his wins have been around a turn. And he may appreciate the fact that turns reduce the early speed of sprints. Here they went so slow early that An Tadh was able to run the final two furlongs in just 22.7 seconds by my estimates - over a second quicker than they managed in any other race on the card. It could well be that he's best in races where this is possible and will tire on straight courses because they go faster early on.

QUEVEGA WILL BE TOUGH TO BEAT AT PUNCHESTOWN

QUEVEGA (38) was even more impressive than on her Irish debut when winning for the fifth time in a row at Gowran Park last week. She was always cruising along in second place early on and instantly had all her rivals in trouble when cruising into the lead just after the fourth last. It was all plain sailing from there. So much so that her jockey had plenty of time to take a long look back over his shoulder after jumping the last. Quevega ended up winning the race full of running while earning a seriously big speed rating from me.

The best part of Quevega's performance here was that she improved her jumping. She did fluff the third last slightly but otherwise jumped quickly and cleanly. On her hurdling debut she'd been hesitantat several jumps.

As an Anglo-Arab, Quevega shouldn't really be so effective at such a short trip as two miles. But she is, and I wouldn't dream of betting anything against her if she runs in the big juvenile hurdle at the Punchestown Festival. I'd feel almost as confident about her chances in the novice events too, especially if she stepped up in distance.

Quevega is a proper national hunt sort that's bred for chasing and longer distances. With the better programme now available for mares over hurdles I imagine she'll be kept to the smaller jumps next term when she'd be a serious contender for the big mares race at the Cheltenham Festival. After that she'll surely be winning good races over fences. Meanwhile I'm left wondering just how good she is. She came close to the sort of times the very best novices have been running this season here without being extended.

HEAR THE ECHO LOOKS GOOD FOR AINTREE IN 2009

HEAR THE ECHO (40) ran a seriously fast time time to take the Irish Grand National and had me thinking about next year at Aintree as I watched him jump around Fairyhouse.

The most impressive aspect of Hear The Echo's performance was the tremendous combination of speed and stamina that he displayed. He ran the last two and a half miles a full second quicker than The Joker managed in a decent chase over that distance on the same card. And when ROYAL COUNTY STAR (37) made a very threatening move over the last few fences he responded with a tremendous surge, blasting a dozen lengths clear. It wasn't a case of Royal County Star's stamina failing. It was simply that Hear The Echo seems to have almost bottomless reserves and possesses real class over marathon distances.

I liked the way Hear The Echo jumped the big fences so safely. I can picture him jumping around Aintree very easily. So out of curiosity I compared his record with that of past Grand National winners and found that, like them, he passed a lengthy series of statistical tests that I've set up to help me focus on the most likely contenders for the big race.

I am now itching to have a few pennies on Hear The Echo ante-post for the 2009 Grand National. But I know that I really should wait. Horses that are aimed at the big Aintree race, as he surely will be, tend not to win in the run up to the contest. They're brought along slowly and quite often run over hurdles to preserve their handicap mark the next season. So I'm going to gamble that this will be the case with Hear The Echo and hope that this huge performance will not be resonating so strongly in the minds of bookies when serious betting starts on the Grand National next year.

COOL TARIFA IS TERRIFIC

I have long been dissatisfied with the usefulness of the speed ratings I produce for two year old races. All too often the youngsters go slow in the early stages and only run at top speed for the last three furlongs or so - especially in the first few months of the season. Therefore this season I've decided to adopt a different approach and base my two year old ratings on a composite of sectional and final times. To be specific I'll be clocking the last three furlongs of every two year old race (or from whatever point the pace picked up) and producing a rating based on a comparison with the same section in the fastest sprint for older runners. I'll then doubling this rating, adding the result to the speed rating and dividing by three.

I will no doubt adjust my formula as I go along because I'm only guessing at this point. But it seems to produce a sensible result for COOL TARIFA (36) who won the first Irish two year old race in the season while coming home over a second faster over the last three furlongs than Snaefell did in the good six furlong sprint for older horses.

Cool Tarifa is a good-bodied mature filly who showed a bit of class to go away from her rivals in the closing stages in a pretty dominant performance. It looked like she'd have no problem going another furlong from the way she was finishing, quite possibly further. She'll probably start favourite for the Swordelstown Sprint at Naas next time, and deservedly so.

Runner up COMADOIR (34) was always bang there and looked to run a little greener than either the winner or the third DREAMS FOREVER (32). I see him improving more than anything in the race. He certainly looks a slam dunk to win a maiden next time and will probably be competitive in pattern company after that.

Dreams Forever also showed very good early speed until tiring through the last furlong. Most likely he'll be fitter next time and should be franking this form soon.

HOW GOOD IS COCHLEAR?

Wide margin winners are a rarity on the Polytrack. But COCHLEAR (36) hosed up by no less than six lengths in a mile handicap at Dundalk last week. That's the biggest winning margin so far at the new course. In doing so he earned a Listed class speed rating from me and looked like he could actually have run faster if pressed.

Cochlear was always cruising in behind the leaders, quickly took the lead just after entering the straight and went right away when asked to go and win his race. He's now won both times he's run on the Poly. But I wouldn't be inclined to say it's the surface that's improved him. His connections have always had a high opinion of him but he's apparently just taken a while to 'get his act together'. Most Polytrack horses can act on good or faster ground on turf. So I'd be wary of opposing Cochlear whatever surface he runs on next time.

PANDORAMA A GREAT CHASING PROSPECT

The valuable point to point Championship flat race at Fairyhouse is always a hot race. But this year PANDORAMA (32) routed the big field, making all the running to blow home by 22 lengths. His rider, Nina Carberry was able to take several long looks back at her rivals from the time they entered the straight. At one point the runner up King’s Forest (22) tried to challenge but Pandorama produced a terrific surge to sdimly run away from him and win full of running.

Pandorama had won a red hot maiden point to point on his previous start in seriously fast time, actually clocking a faster time than the useful Where Now managed in the Open. The five horses that followed him home in that point to point would all have won since if a couple of them hadn’t tipped up with the race won.

Pandorama is clearly a great chasing prospect. He clocked an unusually good time for a Bumper here and can almost certainly run faster.

Trainer Noel Meade says Pandorama needs soft ground so won’t be running again this season. Next season he will surely develop into a high class staying novice chaser or hurdler.

SCHINDLERS HUNT RUNS REALLY FAST

SCHINDLERS HUNT (41) has taken a while to get used to the stiffer competition found outside the novice chasing ranks. But he finally showed that he can reproduce the smart form he was showing in novice company last season when taking Ireland’s most valuable two mile handicap chase, the Dan Moore Memorial at Fairyhouse.

The race was run at a searching early pace thanks to GEMINI LUCY (37) who actually looked to go off a little bit too fast. So it rode more like a two and a half mile contest.

Right now I’m inclined to say that two and a half miles is going to prove the right trip for Schindlers Hunt in future.

I’m getting rather interested in the chances of Gemini Lucy at Punchestown. As I’ve mentioned she looked to go off a little too quickly here. But she appeared set to repeat last year’s win in the race when kicking clear four out. She tired markedly late but still clocked a fair time.

Gemini Lucy needs yielding or faster ground and much prefers to go right handed. According to her trainer Before this loss she had completed the course in five chases on officially yielding or faster ground on right-handed tracks. And she won all five times. Today the ground has come right for her.

I would like to be able to say that I understand the runner up WISHWILLOW LORD (39). But I confess that I don’t. He’s a big long striding sort that looks like he’d stay three miles but is clearly best over two. All I can say is that he’s run big races on five of his last six starts and is improving according to my ratings.

JERED COULD BE CHAMPION HURDLE CLASS

JERED (21) clocked no sort of time when winning a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Fairhouse. But that’s only because the gallop was pedestrian until three out and he was eased massively in the closing stages. In fact he ran 0.7 of a second quicker from the third last to the finish by my estimates than Major Sensation managed in the 70,000 Euro handicap hurdle on the same card. And he’d have run 2.3 seconds quicker if he’d maintained the eight or nine length advantage he held at the last instead of being eased.

Jered was held up, moved level with three to jump and then accelerated away from his rivals with breathtaking speed when merely shaken up to hold what I estimate to be a nine length lead by the time they reached the second last. He could have won by any margin his jockey had wished and clearly possesses an amazing turn of foot.

You won’t find me betting against Jered if he gets the fast ground he probably needs to produce his best at Fairyhouse. In fact this run had me thinking in terms of next year’s Champion Hurdle. He’s that good.